Tuesday, September 25, 2007

90 Degree Days

The number of 90+ degree days has set a new record this year at RDU, and has come close to the all time record for 90+ degree days in the Triangle. There have been 79 days this year when the high reached 90 or higher. The old record at RDU was 72. That was set in 1953. The all time record for 90+ degree days was 82 set in 1941. At that time, weather records were kept at the Raleigh Municipal Airport. Records have been kept in the Raleigh area since 1887.

Thanks to information provided by the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh, here's a look at 90+ degree days this year in cities across the state:
  • Lumberton: 80
  • Fayetteville: 80
  • Raleigh-Durham: 79
  • Charlotte: 70
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 69
  • Hickory: 67
  • Greensboro: 59
  • Mount Airy: 45
  • Wilmington: 42
  • Elizabeth City: 32
  • Asheville: 16
  • Cape Hatteras: 4
  • Boone: 1

Monday, September 24, 2007

School Talks

We can tell school is back in full swing because the school visit calendar is starting to fill up for our meteorologists here at News 14 Carolina. I just made my first school visit of the year to speak with the third graders at North Chatham Elementary School. The students there had been studying about what causes the different seasons of the year. They had a lot of great questions like how to stay during hurricanes and tornadoes.
My next talk has me travelling Tuesday to Rosewood Elementary just outside of Goldsboro to talk with the third and fifth graders there. We're happy to visit schools all across the News 14 Carolina viewing area to share our love for weather! If you're a teacher and would like to schedule a weather talk for your classes, just send an e-mail to weather@news14.com.

Hot Weekend

Fall officially started on Sunday, but it felt more like the middle of summer than the first day of autumn. The high of 92 at RDU was just two degrees away from the record for the date. The low to mid 90s were common Sunday afternoon in many spots --
  • Erwin: 97
  • Chapel Hill: 94
  • Fayetteville: 94
  • Laurinburg-Maxton: 94
  • Lumberton: 94
  • Goldsboro: 93
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 93
  • Southern Pines: 93
  • Henderson-Oxford: 91

While it won't be quite as hot today, it will certainly come close with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Afternoon temperatures should finally return to closer to normal levels this coming weekend.

Friday, September 21, 2007

Thursday's Showers

Welcomed showers fell across some spots of central North Carolina on Thursday. The higher amounts were found from Raleigh to the south and east. Here's a look at some of the rain totals:
  • Fayetteville: 0.53"
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.50"
  • Goldsboro (Seymour Johnson AFB): 0.32"
  • Raleigh-Durham Airport: 0.31"
  • NCSU-Raleigh: 0.18"
  • Oxford-Henderson: 0.13"
  • Chapel Hill: 0.08"
  • Laurinburg-Maxton: 0.03"
  • Lumberton: 0.03"

Monday, September 17, 2007

Severe Weather, But Needed Rainfall from Friday

Friday afternoon and evening was a stormy one for parts of central North Carolina. Weather conditions became favorable for thunderstorms to rotate and a few storms did produce weak, short-lived tornadoes. The National Weather Service reproted tornadoes in Wake, Harnett, and Johnston Counties.

The Harnett County tornado was spotted in the River Bluff development off of South River Road just north of Lillington. Numerous trees were knocked down in the area.

Three tornadoes touched down in Johnston County. The first was reported around 6:15 near Clayton Middle School. The same storm that produced that tornado produced another one near the Jordan community. A third tornado was reported north of Benson from the same storm that produced a tornado in Harnett County.

Storm spotters and others also reported a tornado near Lake Benson south of Garner in Wake County. Wind damage was also reported in Fuquay-Varina, but the National Weather Service says that was likely due to straight line winds that could have been in excess of 60mph.

All the tornadoes from Friday evening were estimated to be EF-0 tornadoes on the enhanced Fujita scale with winds between 65 and 85mph.

The good side of the storms was some much needed rainfall. Here's a look at rain totals from around our area Friday night:
  • Clayton: 4.78"
  • Raleigh-Durham: 1.91"
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 1.52"
  • Fayetteville: 1.26"
  • Goldsboro: 1.19"
  • Chapel Hill: 1.02"
  • Lumberton: 0.68"

Friday, September 14, 2007

Stormy Friday Evening

Much needed rain has been falling over much of North Carolina this afternoon and tonight. Unfortunately, the rain has been accompanied by severe weather. There have been several reports of tornadoes earlier this evening in southern Wake County around Fuquay-Varina and in Johnston County north of Benson. Rain with a few isolated strong storms may continue into the overnight hours as more storms over upstate South Carolina move toward our area.

All of the rain should come to an end by daybreak Saturday morning with pleasant weather ahead through Saturday and Sunday.

Stay with News 14 Carolina for the latest Weather on the Ones updates. If you have severe weather pictures or rainfall reports from your neighborhood to share with us, send us an e-mail anytime to weather@news14.com.

Soaking Rains in the Southeast Today

Finally, part of the country that needs rain is getting the rain today, and that rain is headed our way! Moisture from the remnants of Humberto along with an old frontal boundary are helping to produce today's rains. The rain should spread across our area of North Carolina through the afternoon. Off and on showers should continue into the night. Most of the rain should move to our east by very early Saturday morning leaving us with nice weather for the weekend. Cooler temperatures are on the way too. Lows on Sunday morning should drop to the mid 50s with afternoon highs in the 70s.

Track today's rains every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina!

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Rude Awakening for the Texas Gulf Coast This Morning

Hurricane Humberto surprised some folks along the upper Texas Gulf coast this morning. This system was barely a tropical depression Wednesday morning but quickly became a tropical storm Wednesday afternoon. Just before making landfall along High Island, Texas, it strengthened over the warm Gulf waters into a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center estimated winds up to 85mph in the storm around landfall.


Humberto should continue to weaken through the day today as it spreads heavy rains across Louisiana. It then is expected to bring rain to Mississippi and Alabama tonight and Friday. Those areas are in a drought much like the Carolinas so the rainfall well be welcomed.

The next chance for rain here in our area still looks to come Friday. A front that is stationary to our southeast today should lift to north by tomorrow bringing rain showers off and on through Friday especially in the afternoon and evening. We expect about anywhere from a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain for our part of the state.

Wednesday, September 12, 2007

More Records Set Tuesday

Tuesday's high of 99 at RDU broke yet another record. The old record high for September 11 was 97 set in 1983. Tuesday also made for the 75th day this year that the temperature has reached 90 or above at RDU. Prior to this year, the most number of 90 degree days in a year was 72 days in 1953.

Here's a look at other high temperatures around the area from Tuesday --
  • Erwin: 100
  • Fayetteville: 99
  • Smithfield: 99
  • Southern Pines: 99
  • Goldsboro: 98
  • Laurinburg-Maxton: 98
  • Chapel Hill: 97
  • Louisburg: 97
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 97
  • Lumberton: 99
  • Henderson-Oxford: 93

Luckily, Tuesday should be the last day we have to talk about 90 degree temperatures for a while. Hopefully, it was the last time for the rest of the year. Somewhat cooler temperatures have arrived today with highs expected in the mid 80s. Now that temperatures aren't so hot, the next thing we need is rain. That should be on the way for Friday.

Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for the latest on your forecast.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Record Breaking Monday

Another record was set at RDU Monday when the high temperature reached 101. The only record was 97 set in 1983. We could come close to setting another record date. The record for this date also stands at 97 set in 1983.

Luckily, today should be the last day for 90+ temperatures for some time, and hopefully until next summer. Highs in the 80s are expected for the rest of the week with the 70s possible late in the weekend and early next week. Our rain chances look at little better as well especially for Friday. However, if we miss out on the rain Friday, that may be our last chance for several days.

Stay with News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest.

Monday, September 10, 2007

Goodbye Gabrielle

Gabrielle has weakened into a tropical depression and should continue to weaken as it moves northeast getting farther and farther from our coast. Gabrielle did make landfall near Cape Lookout just before noon on Sunday as a tropical storm. While it was a fairly weak storm, it did produce a lot of rain in some areas. Here's a look at rain totals this weekend along the coast:
  • Beaufort: 7.43"
  • Cherry Point: 4.58"
  • New Bern: 1.89"
  • Greenville: 0.44"
  • Kill Devil Hills: 0.41"
  • Aurora: 0.30"
  • Hatteras: 0.27"
  • Manteo: 0.27"
  • Wilmington: 0.03"

Unfortunately, it was only the coast that benefited from Gabrielle's rains. We remain hot and dry here in central North Carolina. Our next hope for some rain will be from a front that should stall out over the state midweek. However, those rains chances aren't looking as optimistic as they once were. We'll keep you posted.

Sunday, September 09, 2007

Gabrielle Update -- Sunday Morning



Tropical Storm Gabrielle has gained some strength and is closing in on the coast of North Carolina this Sunday morning. It should move across the Outer Banks this afternoon with the possibility of winds up to 60 to 65mph. Gabrielle's rains will stay mostly along the immediate coast well east of our area.
Here are a few links you can use to track Gabrielle with us through the day --

Saturday, September 08, 2007

Gabrielle Update -- Saturday Evening


Tropical Storm Gabrielle remains a weak tropical storm as it approaches the North Carolina coast tonight. Some strengthening is possible before it brushes past our coast during the day Sunday. While the storm is moving to the northwest tonight, a more northerly turn is expected Sunday taking the storm across or near the Outer Banks. This will keep the heaviest rains from Gabrielle along the immediate coast. Much of our area will stay dry through the remainder of the weekend.

Our next chance for rain will likely come from a front that will pass through the area the middle of next week. Stay tuned....

For the latest on Gabrielle, stay with News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates.

Gabrielle Headed Toward the Coast

The low pressure we have been tracking this week strengthened into Subtropical Storm Gabrielle late Friday night. As of the 8am Saturday advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 45mph and is moving to the west-northwest. Tropical Storm Watchs are posted for most of the North Carolina coast meaning tropical storm conditions can be expected within the next 36 hours. We look for Tropical Storm Warnings to be posted around midday today.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina through the weekened. We'll have updates every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones.

Friday, September 07, 2007

Tropical Update -- Friday Evening


Here's the latest this evening from the National Hurricane Center...
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Friday Morning Update from the National Hurricane Center

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI F
L845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Tropical Update -- Friday Morning


With the extreme drought expanding across North Carolina, a good soaking rain would be a welcome sight this weekend. The chances for a drought busting rain are not looking good. However, a tropical system could still impact coastal North Carolina late in the weekend.

The disturbance that we have been tracking for much of the week has begun to move back to the west and northwest this morning. The area of low pressure has had a tough time strengthening over the last couple of days because of wind shear ripping the system apart. Satellite imagery this morning seems to be showing signs of a gradual strengthening phase. If this continues into the afternoon, a tropical depression could form later today or tomorrow.

As the system approaches the North Carolina coast, it will encounter the warm waters of the Gulf Stream where it could quickly strengthen into a tropical storm. If that happens, it would be named Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

Most computer models still show at least a weak tropical system moving on shore Sunday. Here's a look at just one of those models for Sunday from the State Climate Office of North Carolina --

I expect rain and wind to spread across the coast by early Sunday. Most of the rain should fall right along the coast, but locations east of I-95 all stand the chance to see rain from this storm. From the Triangle to Fayetteville, a few showers may fall from the storm, but the chance west of Fayetteville and Raleigh is not looking good.
With the potential for a tropical system off our coast this weekend, the forecast could change quickly. News 14 Carolina is your source for the most updates on the system all weekend. As always, we'll have the very latest every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Tropical Update -- Thursday Morning

Our big weather story again this morning is an area of low pressure off the east coast of the U.S. However, the low is not looking very impressive on satellite so far today --


The disturbance has encountered a lot of wind shear over the last 12 hours limiting its development. If the system can hang on through the day today, that wind shear should diminish allowing it to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. At that point, the storm should begin to move back to the west coming close to the coast of the Carolinas for the weekend.

Several computer models show a tropical system just off the North Carolina coast by Saturday evening. Here's just one of them from the State Climate Office of North Carolina --


If the disturbance is able to hang on today and follows its expected path, we should see rain in our area for Sunday. Keep in mind there are still a lot of "what if's" with this storm. The big factor we'll be watching today is if the disturbance can hang on through the wind shear that is currently ripping it apart.

Count on News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest updates. We'll also follow the storm here on our Weather on the Ones blog.

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Watching the Tropics Today

Big surprise... hot and dry again today. The only system that may be able to break us out of this dry weather pattern over the next 5 to 7 days is an area of low pressure off the southeast coast today.
This disturbance formed along an old frontal boundary that moved off the southeast coast at the end of last week. As the disturbance interacts with warm ocean waters, I expect it to become a tropical depression by this afternoon or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center has a hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to check out the system this afternoon.

This area of low pressure has been drifting to the east over the last couple of days and will probably move erratically today and tomorrow. However, it should begin to move back to the west late Thursday and Friday. That will bring it closer to the North Carolina coast. At that point, conditions will be favorable for this to continue to strengthen into a tropical depression, and a hurricane is a possibility.

How close will this come to the coast? That remains to be seen. Some computer models bring it inland over North Carolina. Soaking rains from a weak tropical system would we a welcomed sight. However, other models keep the storm off the coast keeping the rain well to our east.

We'll continue to watch this system over the next couple of days, and should have a better idea exactly where it may head as we get closer to the weekend. Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for the latest.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Tropical Update -- Tuesday Morning

Hurricane Felix is making landfall this morning as a category 5 hurricane along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. This will be devastating to much of Central America. I expect reports of catastrophic damage from Felix's winds and torrential rains. The storm should weaken through the day as the hurricane moves over land.

While Felix is the only named storm in the Atlantic basin this morning, we continue to monitor a disturbance off the southeast coast.

This non-tropical low has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next couple of days. The low will likely drift to the east today and tomorrow. However, it may begin to move back to the west or northwest by the end of the week. There is at least one computer model this morning that shows the system moving toward the Carolina coast by the weekend. Other models keep the system off shore. A good soaking rainfall from a weak tropical system is exactly what the drought-stricken Carolinas could use. We'll see if it pans out.... Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest.

Monday, September 03, 2007

Refreshing Labor Day Morning

It was quite a comfortable start to Labor Day across North Carolina with some spots in our area dropping to the upper 50s.

Here's a look at morning lows from around the region --
  • Louisburg: 55
  • Chapel Hill: 57
  • Henderson-Oxford: 57
  • Smithfield: 57
  • Southern Pines: 57
  • Raleigh-Durham: 59
  • Goldsboro: 61
  • Fayetteville: 62
  • Erwin: 63
  • Lumberton: 63

Unfortunately, these cooler than normal temperatures won't stick around through the day. By the afternoon, highs will again be above normal for this time of year. Labor Day typically brings highs in the mid 80s. Today we look for the low 90s. The mid 90s will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

Sunday, September 02, 2007

Watching the Tropics This Weekend

There are several areas in the tropics we are watching this Labor Day weekend...
I'll start with the area #2 in the above graphic from the National Hurricane Center. A front that moved through the southeast the last couple of days has stalled off the coast of Georgia. This time of year a stalled front off the coast can be the focus for tropical development. That may be the case over the next day or two. We'll watch this one closely.

The area circled with a 1 is a weak tropical wave crossing the Atlantic. The chances for this system to develop into a tropical depression look limited at this time.

And last but certainly not least, Hurricane Felix continues to gain strength in the Caribbean today.


By the middle of the week, Felix could impact Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico.
We'll keep you posted on all of these systems. For the latest, tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour on News 14 Carolina.