Friday, September 26, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2008
A WELL-DEFINED EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ALONG THE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ON FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE... STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL REGIONS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING...AND BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING MORE THAN 100 MILES FORM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON ITS STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES... AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. REPORTS FROM NEARBY SHIPS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH NORTH OF THE CENTER. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW. AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER NORTH TODAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
The low is developing along a stationary front and does not currently have tropical characteristics. However, as the low interacts with warm ocean waters off our coast, the National Hurricane Center now says there is some potential that the system could gain some tropical characteristics.
If that happens, the storm would become a subtropical storm or a tropical storm and would be named. Regardless of whether the storm is named or not, the impact to eastern and central North Carolina will be the same -- rainy and windy weather for Thursday. It will likely be cool as well as temperatures will not make it out of the low to mid 60s around the Triangle and the mid to upper 60s in the Sandhills. Coastal North Carolina will likely be warmer with temperatures in the 70s.
Heavy rains and strong winds may cause a few problems with some downed trees or powerlines especially closer to the coast where the winds will be the strongest. Coastal flooding and beach erosion may be an issue as well especially along the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks.
Follow the storm with the latest information by tuning in to our Weather on the Ones updates only on News 14 Carolina.
Friday, September 19, 2008
North Carolina has had an easier year of it as far as tropical storms go, at least as compared to those along the Gulf coast and Midwest. News 14 Carolina Meteorologist Lee Ringer had an earlier post about the passing of the peak of our 2008 hurricane season. It is always a good time to plan, whether it be for tropical weather evacuations, severe local storms or even winter weather.
As we have pets in my family, I am always concerned about protecting them when weather is a factor (especially since I may be working during the weather and they're at home!)
I love the ASPCA website, as there are always great tips for pet care. While this evacuation list for pets focuses more on dogs and cats, talk to your veterinarian about how this can be better augmented to fit the needs of your unique pet. Some of these things can be placed in a container for long-term storage and some can be obtained in a pinch. If you regularly travel with your pet, you may have these things set to go already!
The ASPCA would like to offer the following list of essential items to pack for your animal companions in advance, should you be faced with evacuation:
Pet first-aid kit and guide book
3 to 7 days' worth of canned (pop-top) or dry food
Disposable litter trays (aluminum roasting pans are perfect)
Litter or paper toweling
Liquid dish soap and disinfectant
Disposable garbage bags for clean-up
Dishes for food and water
Extra harness and leash
Photocopies of medical records
Waterproof container with a two-week supply of any medicine your pet requires
Bottled water—at least seven days' worth for each person and pet
Traveling bag, crate or sturdy carrier, ideally one for each pet
Recent photos of your pet(s)
Especially for cats: Pillowcase or EvackSack, toys, scoopable litter
Especially for dogs: Long leash and yard stake, toys and chew toys, a week's worth of cage liner
for more information, here's the ASPCA website link:
Have a great weekend!
Meteorologist, News 14 Carolina
Meteorologist Jeff Orrock with the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh sent us an e-mail this week with more information on tropical activity in the fall months in North Carolina. Here's a map Jeff provided with all of the storms that have impacted our state in October and November from 1852 through 2007:
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Monday, September 08, 2008
The storm's center came inland around 3:20am near the North Carolina/South Carolina border. While the storm's strongest winds were concentrated right around the center of the storm, Hanna's heaviest rains fell ahead and to the west of the storm. Flooding was reported around the Triangle and Sandhills region of North Carolina.
The two above images of Doppler radar estimated rainfall give a good idea for what locations saw the most rain. Here are some storm rainfall totals reported from around the region:
- Southern Pines: 6.68"
- Raeford: 6.29"
- Fort Bragg: 6.19"
- Laurinburg: 5.74"
- Red Springs: 5.50"
- Durham: 5.33"
- Morrisville (RDU): 5.19"
- Apex: 5.17"
- Cary: 5.05"
- Chapel Hill: 4.96"
- Raleigh (NCSU): 4.77"
- Fayetteville: 4.62"
- Lumberton: 4.60"
- Smithfield: 4.59"
- Clayton: 4.55"
- Whiteville: 4.30"
- Goldboro: 3.80"
- Elizabethtown: 3.30"
- Louisburg: 3.27"
- Wilson: 2.63"
- Wilmington: 2.33"
- Surf City: 2.17"
- Leland: 1.87"
- Wrightsville Beach: 1.74"
Tree down on Booker Creek Apartments near Chapel Hill. Photo from News 14 Carolina viewer.
Here's a look at some peak wind gusts from late Friday night and early Saturday morning:
- Wrightsville Beach: 72mph
- Wilmington: 54mph
- Goldsboro: 52mph
- Pope Air Force Base: 45mph
- Lumberton: 45mph
- Fort Bragg: 44mph
- Chapel Hill: 43mph
- Fayetteville: 40mph
- Laurinburg: 40mph
- Southern Pines: 26mph
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Friday, September 05, 2008
The storm is maintaining its tropical storm strength. We still cannnot rule out some slight strengthening to a minimal category 1 hurricane just before landfall.
Rain bans from hanna are already moving on land. We've already had a few tornado warnings for coastal counties. There could be more to come through the afternoon.
Wherever you are in Time Warner's North Carolina cable system, count on the very latest Hanna information every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones.
If you have storm reports and pictures to share with us, send an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org
Thursday, September 04, 2008
As of the 5am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hanna had winds of 70mph... just 5mph away from a hurricane. Hanna may still encounter some wind shear through the day, so a great deal of strengthening is not expected at this time. However, Hanna is expected to become a hurricane later today or tomorrow as it tracks toward the Carolina coast.
The above track from Hanna from the National Hurricane Center still shows the "cone of uncertainty" still covering much of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast. Based on the latest data, it appears Hanna may make landfall near the North Carolina-South Carolina state line give or take 50-70miles around midnight as we head into Saturday morning.
Hanna is expected to track inland over eastern North Carolina. This would bring the heaviest rains and strongest winds along I -95 and to the east. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are expected in that region and along the coast with some isolated areas experiencing the heaviest rains. A few tornadoes may be possible as well along the track of the storm and to the east of the track.
Hanna may arrive at high tide along North Carolina's southeastern beaches which will take place at 12:30am Saturday morning.
Today is the day to prepare for what may be to come late Friday into Saturday. Secure lawn furniture, grills, garbage cans, and other loose items that could easily be blown around by Hanna's winds. Have an emergency kit ready just in case and be prepared for extended power outages for areas that experience the strongest winds from Hanna.
Keep in mind there is still some uncertainty to the exact track of Hanna. A slight jog to the east or to the west could change this forecast. Stay with News 14 Carolina for the most updates on Hanna with the latest available every 10 minutes in Weather on the Ones.
By the way, Hanna isn't the only storm to watch. Ike has strengthened into a powerful category 4 hurricane and will track toward the Bahamas by early next week. There are some signs that Ike may then take a northwest turn. It is way to early to speculate on exactly where Ike is headed, but Ike will be the focus for us once we get rid of Hanna.
Have questions about the tropics? Send us an e-mail to email@example.com. We'll try to answer your questions here in our weather blog as time allows.
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Hanna is a little weaker this morning compared to early Tuesday morning. That is due to wind shear that has been over the storm since yesterday. The 5am advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Hanna drifting to the north at 2mph. We expect that north and eventually a northwestward movement to pick up later today. That will take the storm into an area that is more favorable for development. Hanna is expected to become a hurricane again tomorrow.
The latest forecast track shown above from the NHC has the center of Hanna coming inland late Friday along the South Carolina coast. However, you notice the shaded area or "cone of uncertainty" includes much of the North Carolina coast. Several computer models, shown below in a graphic from Colorado State University, have shifted the track to the east bringing landfall closer to the South Carolina and North Carolina border.
We will likely continue to see some shifts in the forecast track over the coming days. Keep in mind track forecasting and intensity forecasting even a few days out remains very difficult when it comes to tropical systems. You'll want to stay up to date with the very latest information over the next couple of days. Count on News 14 Carolina for the most updates every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones.
If you have questions about Hanna, you can e-mail us at firstname.lastname@example.org. We'll try to answer your questions as time allows here on our blog.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Gustav seen above in a radar grab from earlier this morning continues to weaken, but is still spreading heavy rain over Louisiana and parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.
Closer to home, our attention must turn to Hanna. Early this morning Hanna was a hurricane, but the storm has encountered some wind shear and has weakened to a Tropical Storm. The storm will likely become a hurricane again over the next couple of days. In fact, as the storm accelerates toward the southeast coast later in the week, it is forecast to strengthen to a category 2 hurricane.
Hanna will approach the Carolina coast Friday. It will have to track across the warm waters of the Gulf stream where it could continue to strengthen. It is possible for Hanna to be stronger than a category 2 storm at landfall. Intensity forecast for tropical systems is extremely difficult. Expect changes in the forecast over the coming days. We'll be sure to stay on top of the latest weather data to keep you informed.
The track forecast may shift some as well. The forecast update early this morning from the National Hurricane Center has Hanna coming inland along the South Carolina coast near Charleston. However, all of the North Carolina coast and the Georgia coast remain in the cone of uncertainty.
Even if Hanna come inland along the South Carolina coast, we'll feel a big impact from the storm here in North Carolina. The storm will pick up forward speed at landfall meaning the area of hurricane and tropical storm force winds could make it pretty far inland. The other threat right along the track of the storm and to the east will be the possibility for heavy rains and tornadoes. These weather threats are possible in central and eastern North Carolina Friday, Friday night, and early Saturday morning. The forecast is of course subject to change depending on the exact track and timing of Hanna. Stay with News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates.
Elsewhere, you'll also want to stay up to date with Tropical Storm Ike that is forecast to become a hurricane later in the week as it tracks to the west.....
Monday, September 01, 2008
All of this activity is coming together at the apex of the hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least two more storms coming together over the next week or so. Even though they may not pose an immediate threat to the U.S., the 2008 season is proving to be as busy as anticipated.
The storm will likely weaken later this evening as it moves inland over Louisiana. New Orleans will not be the only city feeling the impacts from this storm. Strong winds and heavy rains will also affect Mobile, AL, Biloxi, MS, Baton Rouge, LA, Lafayette, LA, Lake Charles, LA and other surrounding cities.
Gustav is not the only active system to watch in the tropics. Closer to the southeast coast, Tropical Storm Hanna has become a little better organized on satellite this morning. Hanna is drifting to the west very slow. Weak steering currents will keep Hanna on a slow track over the next couple of days. By the middle of the week, high pressure building over Bermuda will help Hanna to accelerate toward the southeast coast by the end of the week.
The latest forecast this morning from the National Hurricane Center brings Hanna inland near the Georgia-South Carolina line as a hurricane Friday. However, with the level of uncertainty that far out in the forecast, the storm could come inland anywhere from Florida to North Carolina.
Below is a graphic of several computer model forecasts for Hanna taken from Colorado State University...
You'll notice there are at least a few models that bring the storm closer to the North Carolina coast. The trends in the models will have to be watched closely over the coming days as a lot can change between now and the end of the week.
Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest tropical updates at :21 after the hour.