Saturday, December 19, 2009

NC Snowfall Update


Viewer photo above from Wendell Hull of Durham. Send your weather pictures to weather@news14.com.
Here's a look at updated snowfall totals from around NC...
  • West Robbinsville (Graham Co.): 24.0"
  • West Asheville: 17.0"
  • East Marion: 15.0"
  • Boone: 14.0"
  • Sparta: 14.0"
  • Mount Airy: 11.0"
  • Lewisville: 7.2"
  • Pilot Mountain: 7.0"
  • Roxboro: 6.7"
  • Greensboro: 4.5" - 5.5"
  • Kernersville: 5.0"
  • Burlington: 3.8"
  • Henderson: 3.0"
  • High Point: 3.0"
  • Elon: 2.7"
  • Lexington: 2.5"
  • Mebane: 2.0"
  • Durham: 1.3"
  • Chapel Hill: 0.5"
  • Morrisville: 0.5"
  • Clayton: Trace
  • Raleigh: Trace

Friday, December 18, 2009

Friday Morning Update

As of this posting around 9:30am, reports of sleet are coming in from around Charlotte with snow just to the west of Charlotte and up around Hickory. Winter weather is spreading into central North Carolina and any accumulations into the early afternoon should be mainly slushy with temperatures hovering in the mid 30s.

We expect snow or a mix of snow and sleet around the Triangle around midday into the early afternoon. Locations south and east of Raleigh should see mainly all rain, although it may start with just a little sleet. The snow or wintry mix should change to mainly rain around Raleigh by this evening. However, that mix may continue through the evening just north and west of Raleigh. That's why the National Weather Service has upgraded Durham, Orange, Chatham, Granville, Vance, and Warren Counties to a Winter Storm Warning along with locations across the Triad.

Heavier snow accumulations should still come to the northwest of the Triangle with this storm. Around Winston-Salem to Boone and north into Virginia, there may be some pockets of up to a foot of snow! In our area, 2-4" are possible across Durham, Orange, Granville, and Vance Counties. The northern parts of those counties may see more. Areas around Raleigh and Wake County may see just a light slushy accumulation. Perhaps, up to 2" in northern and western parts of the County.

We still think there will be a sharp cut over between just a cold rain and accumulating snow. If that rain/snow line doesn't fall exactly where forecasted, weather conditions could be dramatically different. Stay tuned....

You can keep us informed of the latest weather in your area through the day and night. Send us an e-mail to weather@news14.com.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Update on the Threat for Winter Weather

Some details on the threat for winter winter in central North Carolina are coming together, but uncertainty still remains in the forecast. We're watching low pressure developing this morning in the Gulf of Mexico that is expected to track up the North Carolina coast late Friday into Saturday. We now anticipate the precipitation to begin as early as midday Friday or Friday afternoon and continue into Saturday. This storm will have a sharp snow to rain line, and just 15 miles could be the difference between a cold rain and significant snowfall accumulation. And the track of the low could easily swing that snow/rain line just to the east or just to the west making a big difference in the weather you will see in your neighborhood.

I'll break down my latest thoughts on the forecast by region...

Triangle
Precipitation should start Friday afternoon as a wintry mix or perhaps as all snow, but we anticipate that to change to mainly rain Friday evening. It may change back to a mix or snow as the precipitation ends Saturday. The rain/snow line may be located over the Triangle during the entire storm. That could mean areas Raleigh to the east see very little snow while Durham and Chapel Hill experience accumulation. At this point, a couple of inches is possible across the Triangle with higher accumulations across northern Durham and Orange Counties. Warmer ground temperatures may limit accumulations in some cases unless the precipitation falls at heavy rate.

Granville and Vance Counties (near the VA border)
Significant snowfall accumulation is possible in this area including around Oxford and Henderson as mainly all snow is expected Friday evening, Friday night, and Saturday morning. Travel will likely be impacted in this area.

Wilson, Wayne, and Johnston Counties
The precipitation should mainly fall as just a cold rain in these areas unless the track of the low shifts.

Sandhills
The precipitation should mainly be a cold rain around Fayetteville and Lumberton, but some snow is possible northwest of Fayetteville around Southern Pines and Pinehurst. Some accumulating snow is possible in Moore County.

Coastal areas
Precipitation will fall as all rain Friday afternoon into Saturday. Over an inch of rain is likely.

Again, all of this forecast is subject to change depending on how this low develops and exactly where it tracks. A temperature change just by one to two degrees could drastically change conditions.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the updates through the storm. We'll be staff around the clock to provide you with the latest information.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Afternoon Update

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Wednesday Morning Update on the Weekend Forecast

Some folks around Raleigh commented on the red sky this morning. News 14 Carolina viewer Jim Penny sent us a picture of that "red sunrise" this morning from west Raleigh. The old weather saying goes something like "red sky in the morning, take warning...." So is there warning we need to take from that red sky? There's certainly nothing to be warned about today and tomorrow and we look for clear and chilly conditions. However, by now you may have heard the buzz around town about the weekend forecast...

Through the rest of the week, we'll track low pressure out of the Gulf of Mexico across Florida and just off the southeast coast. If that low continues to track up the coastline of the Carolinas, central parts of North Carolina COULD see snow. The area of interest for this scenario includes points from Raleigh to Fayetteville and to the west. On the other hand, if the low continues to track to the east-northeast, our area would mainly just see some rain showers.

Computer models still give a variety of forecasts this morning, and it's really too early to start leaning one way or the other on those scenarios. The timing on the preciptiation remains uncertain as well. Our original timeframe of interest was late Friday night into Saturday. A few models now try to start the precipitation as early as Friday afternoon.

With each model run that comes out today and tomorrow, we should gain more confidence in the forecast. We should certainly have a better idea on what may happen by tomorrow and Friday. So stay tuned to see if we just see a cold rain or something more....

In the meantime, the folks over at the National Weather Service in Raleigh always do a great job with the difficult task of winter weather forecasting in central North Carolina. Here's their hazardous weather update this morning with more on their forecast thinking....


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM MAY PASS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD NOT BE LIKELY. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD INCREASE.

EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$

BADGETT/VINCENT

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Watching the Weekend Forecast...

As of Tuesday morning, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for the weekend. Low pressure is expected to track out of the Gulf of Mexico and perhaps just off the Carolina coast by the weekend. However, it is questionable now just how close to our coast that low will track, and that could impact our weather for Saturday and perhaps Sunday. For more on what we're watching for this weekend check out this morning's video blog posted below...

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Monday, December 14, 2009

Foggy Monday Morning

News 14 Carolina viewer photo taken by Wendell Hull in Durham of Monday morning's dense fog. Send your weather pictures anytime to weather@news14.com.

Monday, December 07, 2009

Afternoon Update

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Cold Monday Morning


Temperatures dipped into the upper 20s Monday morning making for a frosty start to the week. News 14 Carolina viewer Wendell Hull sent us this picture from his morning bike ride. The low dropped to 27 at the Raleigh-Durham Airport just below the normal of 34.

Ups and Downs Ahead This Week

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Thursday, December 03, 2009

Wednesday's Rains


There's a picture from a News 14 Carolina viewer in Rocky Point, NC from yesterday's and last night's soaking rains. Most locations in central and eastern North Carolina saw anywhere between one and three inches of rain. The heavy rainfall created some minor flooding issues.

Even though our region spent part of the night under a Tornado Watch, severe weather damage was limited to isolated wind damage reports in Brunswick and Lenoir Counties.

Here's a look at some rainfall reports from around the News 14 Carolina viewing area:

  • Wilmington: 2.82"
  • Raleigh-Durham: 2.30"
  • Cherry Point: 2.02"
  • Jacksonville: 1.99"
  • Chapel Hill: 1.82"
  • Beaufort: 1.60"
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 1.58"
  • Goldsboro: 1.45"
  • New Bern: 1.40"
  • Fayetteville: 0.96"

Feel free to share your rain reports and weather pictures with us anytime by e-mailing weather@news14.com.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Update from the Storm Prediction Center...

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CST WED DEC 02 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SC AND NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES OVER EASTERN PARTS OF SC AND NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.

WHILE OVERALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AFTER DARK WARRANTS HEIGHTENED SAFETY PRECAUTIONS.

TORNADOES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY FAST-MOVING AND OBSCURED BY RAIN AND DARKNESS.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS TONIGHT.

..RACY.. 12/02/2009

Update on Storm Threat for this Afternoon and Tonight


Weather conditions are coming together for severe weather to develop across the eastern half of North Carolina this afternoon and tonight. The greatest threat for strong to severe storms will come from Raleigh to the south and east including areas all the way to the coast. There may be a couple of rounds of severe weather starting with strong storms this afternoon across the coastal plain. Another round of severe storms is possible from the Triangle to eastern North Carolina later into the night. Storms may produce damaging winds and tornadoes.
Heavy rains will be possible across most of the state as well. Rainfall could range between one and three inches by tonight. This may lead to some isolated flooding problems.
The Weather on the Ones Forecast Center will be staffed around the clock today and tonight. Stay tuned for the latest weather information available every 10 mintues with Weather on the Ones.

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Update on Wednesday's Storm Threat


From the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh --

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 6 PM WEDNESDAY AND 3 AM THURSDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT IS OBSERVED AT THEIR LOCATION.

$$


and from the National Weather Service Office in Wilmington --

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATER AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WATER TO POND IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SURF WILL BE ROUGH AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TIDES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND MAY APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS AROUND HIGH TIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$
RJD