News 14 Carolina - Weather Blog

Floating the Friendly Sky...

2012-02-05T18:25:00.002-05:00

"It was the one thing in all the world that Prince Littleboy most wanted,- his own red balloon, floating up there in the sky, dangling its long golden cord. The grey cloud had been hiding it all the time." - The Little Red Balloon, by Caroline Hofman.

Michelle Parks, a loyal viewer from Midland, NC posted this picture to our Weather on the Ones Facebook page on the afternoon of Thursday, February 2, 2012.

Michelle has found remnants from celebrations on her property in the past. Energetic balloons from parties and weddings turned loose by the hands of those who will remember the night for company kept and stories made rather than the moment they set adrift a character whose eventual demise was a lifeless wobble over a random backyard east of Charlotte.

Being a Thursday, we're usually locked in a nomadic zone where we're close enough to the weekend to be joyous, but those precious days of rest are just beyond our reach to get too excited. With our weekly routines well established, a little red balloon can release us from our pattern as its red shimmer beckons our attention It conjures up images and feelings of summer days gone by. Admit it, we all share a common story. We were the proud owners of a balloon only to bravely let it go with the confidence we'd catch it in time before it floats away. It's a daring game of cat and mouse as our prize possession waived its string in our face like a hypnotists watch and before we could close our fingers the balloon was free, floating away, leaving our spirits dashed just like Prince Littleboy in the classic 1918 children's book.

Michelle tracked and captured this balloon in one fell swoop. Reading the attached card, pictured above, she was taken by surprise and wanted to tell us about it. We're so thankful she did!

The card enlightened Michelle to the owners and the significance of the balloon. This wasn't just an ordinary red balloon, this was a well traveled balloon belonging to an elementary school down the road; down the road 317 miles as the crow flies in Boaz, Alabama. "I was thrilled to find the balloon", Michelle said on our Facebook page, "When I found out it had been released less than 24 hours earlier it seemed absolutely incredible."

A day earlier and two states away, Principal Beth Scott, of Boaz Elementary School, wanted to celebrate the kickoff to 'read bowl' month with an event geared towards engaging students while keeping them excited. An event where each child launches a balloon is drenched in symbolism for parents and teachers who are preparing kids for their future. It was too good to pass up and a brilliant idea. Principal Scott recalls, "The weather was horrible. It rained all day until about 2:05pm. The release was scheduled for 2:15, so it worked out just in time for us to do this."

The cloudy and wet Wednesday of the release reached a crescendo when each balloon was sent on its own unique journey into the elements; where they would go, no one would know- at least for now. Students, parents, and teachers had high hopes every balloon would reach a destination safely and someone would be kind enough to respond. With help from the Boaz High School Art Department, once a balloon is reported students will map its location on canvas. The completed art project will become a permanent display at the elementary school.

On a warm, winter afternoon in North Carolina, an excited Michelle Parks contacted the principal to let her know our little red balloon had reached its final destination in Midland, NC. From the hands of children, through the clouds, rain and many miles flown one Tar Heel state resident has completed a circle. Bringing joy to a group of students in Alabama. Encouraging kids to read was the main reason for the balloon launch, but the lessons the students will learn from this project include kindness, a little luck and science (mainly Meteorology).

The weather on Wednesday set up perfectly for a balloon to track towards North Carolina. At the surface high pressure was off the Atlantic Coast giving Alabama southwest winds. These winds shifted to west-southwest over northern Georgia and eventually the ridge flattened out over North Carolina where winds were mainly out of the west.

The chart above shows readings taken at 18-thousand to 22-thousand feet above the ground! We're mainly focusing in on the wind barbs, or the red lines with red triangles over Georgia and North Carolina. Winds at this height were measured at 50 knots (58mph) from the southwest. It's reasonable to believe this balloon may have reached this altitude for several hours before losing enough helium to descend lower in the atmosphere- where winds are not as strong.

Typically, a small balloon filled with helium can rise as high as 3-5 miles above the ground! The fate of the balloon is usually a structural failure (pop to you and me). At such high altitude air pressure decreases, distorting the balloon. Also, the air is much colder up there (-20 to -40 degrees, or colder, on a winter day) causing cracks in the balloon and an eventual pop. It was unusually warm on Wednesday and Thursday, the skew-t chart above indicates profiles at 18-thousand to 25-thousand feet were between 0 to -10 degrees C. The relative warmth at altitude and wind direction helped keep this balloon aloft for more than 300 miles. Now, if you look at the balloon, pictured above, there is some color fade which would lead me to believe it was bouncing around in some pretty cold air aloft, but it wasn't enough to cause it to crack or pop and fall from the sky. The result was probably some helium loss and an eventual downward drift to a level where winds were not as strong. Simply put, a gradual decline to Midland where Michelle eventually found it.

In closing, there are a couple things to ponder. First, I used 317 miles as a way to show the distance between Midland and Boaz, but the balloon logged many more miles. The balloon not only had horizontal distance (a straight line is not how it truly travels), but also vertical distance (the ascent and decent isn't taken into account). Finally, at least two more balloons have been reported. Principal Scott has received a call from Bessemer City, NC and a call from South Carolina.

It's a pretty neat story and it's cool to think this all started as an idea in Boaz, AL! The lessons we can take are those of interconnectedness, kindness and our dependence on each other. Learning never stops and we can contribute in ways we'll never truly know unless we try.

Boaz Elementary School: Read Across BES Month

As seen on News 14 Carolina- Kate Gaier reporting

What's ahead for February?

2012-01-30T09:18:00.008-05:00

It has been a mild winter, so far, and that mild winter will continue into the first day of February. Highs are likely to reach near 70 in much of central and eastern North Carolina Wednesday. However, there are now signs we could be in for a pattern change to colder weather beginning around this weekend or next week.

With the coming pattern change, computer models have had a difficult time with the forecast for the weekend. At this time, it appears we could be in for a dreary weekend with a cool rain. That forecast is subject to change though as we hope computer models will come into better agreement for the weekend forecast over the coming days.

Beyond this upcoming weekend, the Climate Prediction Center's 8 to 14 day outlook calls for below normal temperatures for much of the eastern United States including the Carolinas --

While we expect colder weather as we get closer to the middle of February (around 2/5 - 2/12), it is uncertain how long that cold weather will stay. The Climate Prediction Center still shows the month of February warmer than normal on average. With no measurable snowfall yet this winter in our part of North Carolina, I still get asked, "Will it snow this winter?" As I post this Monday morning (1/30), there is no snow in our 7-day forecast. Beyond that, it is still too early to speculate on any snow chances for February. Keep in mind, snow can still fall in our part of North Carolina into March. We'll just have to wait to see what the next several weeks bring.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest on your local forecast!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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12 Years Ago: Record Snow in the Triangle

2012-01-25T09:41:00.002-05:00

If you were in North Carolina January 25, 2000, you probably remember the day well. A snow storm blanketed much of central North Carolina with over a foot of snow. Nearly 2 feet of snow fell in parts of the Triangle. The official snowfall from the night of January 24 through January 25 at the Raleigh-Durham Airport was 20.3". That is the all time record snowfall from one storm for Raleigh-Durham.

The heavy snow in January 2000 was a surprise to many. Computer models did not do a good job forecasting the storm even 24 hours before the snow began. Many local forecasts were only calling for a few inches of snow the morning of January 24. Forecast totals increased through the day but did not come close to the 20" actual snowfall.

Over the last twelve years, a lot of research has been done on my that storm was not well forecast. Much of that research has been done locally at North Carolina State University. That research has improved the computer models we use to forecast today.

Click here to read more about the January 2000 storm.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Up and Down Weekend

2012-01-20T10:07:00.002-05:00

Hang on... we're in for a roller coaster ride when it comes to temperatures this weekend. We'll start mild and end up chilly. Milder air will build into the state late tonight as a warm front lifts to the north. That will bring temperatures well into the 60s Saturday. Some areas in southeastern North Carolina could easily hit 70.

A few showers will spread into the state with the warm front tonight. We'll look for a break from any rain through most of Saturday morning with the exception of a few sprinkles or an isolated shower. Nore widespread rain will arrive by Saturday afternoon and night. That more widespread rain will come ahead of a cold front that will move through the state late Saturday.

Much cooler air will wedge its way into central North Carolina behind the cold front Sunday. That will keep temperatures in the 40s all day in the Triangle along with clouds and drizzle. Highs will struggle to make it to the low 50s in the Sandhills and should reach the upper 50s near the coast.

Milder weather will return Monday when highs again will soar well into the 60s with some spots hitting 70 in southeastern North Carolina.

Be sure to stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates on the forecast through the weekend.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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What's Ahead for the Rest of January?

2012-01-17T09:20:00.005-05:00

Our up and down temperature roller coaster continues this week in North Carolina, but it appears we may be going up more than coming down through the rest of this month. Just check out the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center --

Both show temperatures above normal for much of the U.S. including here in the Carolinas.

In the short term, it will be a bit chilly the middle of this week. I am not expecting bitter cold but lows should drop to the 20s Thursday morning.

Temperatures will then be on the rise by the weekend with highs in the 60s. Most all indications are the warm up will continue into next week. We may be asking, "has spring arrived?" through the first half of next week. An early look at the forecast for next week shows some spots making it to at least 70 by around Tuesday or Wednesday.

We likely won't stay that warm though for the rest of winter. There are some indications we will turn colder around the last day or two of January or the first few days of February.

For those asking about snow, I don't see any chances for our part of North Carolina over the next week or two. It is still much to early to speculate on any snow chances for February or March. Stay tuned!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Chilly This Weekend, But Will It Last?

2012-01-12T08:47:00.006-05:00

We are about to move into what is typically the coldest time of the year for North Carolina (mid to late January). Right on cue, colder air will spread into the Carolinas for Friday and the weekend. Temperatures will return to near and below normal levels for a few days. However, there are signs that this cold snap will not last long.

Most of central and eastern North Carolina can expect highs in the mid 40s to near 50 this weekend with lows in the mid 20s to near 30, but highs will return to the 50s with some spots approaching 60 by Tuesday. The above normal temperatures may continue beyond the middle of the week. The latest 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center both show above normal temperatures across the southeast --

Overall, I don't see any significant changes to the weather pattern so far this winter - mostly mild with short cold snaps on occasion.

After above normal snowfall last winter, many people are still asking about snow for this winter. While a snow forecast more than a day or two ahead is never a guarantee in our part of North Carolina, I don't see any snow chances over the next one to two weeks. There's still plenty of time for snow to pop up in the forecast. We still must get through February and early March, but our current weather pattern will have to change for much of a snow chance around here this winter.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Heavier Rain for Wednesday

2012-01-09T10:00:00.007-05:00

Occasional light showers will continue across our area today, but heavier rain is our forecast for the middle of this week. A storm system that is producing much needed rainfall across Texas today will eventually spread that rain across the Carolinas Wednesday.

Around 0.1" of rain or less is expected today, but at least 1.0" of rain is expected Wednesday across most of North Carolina. That will be welcome rain especially for the moderate drought areas of southeastern North Carolina.

We'll have to watch for the threat for a few embedded thunderstorms with the rain Wednesday afternoon and evening. While it appears to be a low risk, severe storms cannot be ruled out. We'll keep you posted with our latest forecasts on News 14 Carolina. Stay tuned!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Mild This Weekend; Cold Next Weekend?

2012-01-06T09:13:00.006-05:00

If you haven't caught our forecast yet today, the 60s will return this afternoon and tomorrow. In fact, much of our area may be within just a few degrees of 70 on Saturday! This comes just a few days after the coldest weather so far this season. Those highs in the 30s from Tuesday will seem like a distant memory this weekend.

While our temperatures should remain near to above normal most of next week, it will not remain this mild all month. It is January after all. As I briefly mentioned in yesterday's posts, there are now signs another blast of cold air will makes its way into the eastern U.S. around the middle of this month. That will likely bring below normal temperatures back to North Carolina next weekend. Based on this morning's model data, I would think we should begin to feel that cold blast around next Saturday and Sunday (January 14-15).

You can see the Climate Prediction Center has outlined much of the southeast including the Carolinas for below normal temperatures in the current 6 to 10 day outlook --

For more on the specifics in our forecast over the coming days, be sure to check in for our latest Weather on the Ones updates on News 14 Carolina.

Hope you have a great weekend!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Will It Snow This Winter?

2012-01-05T09:24:00.002-05:00

Will it snow this winter? That is a question I have heard a lot over the last couple of months. It is also a question that cannot be answered just yet...

This time last winter we had all seen snow at least once. That included the day after Christmas snowfall when just over a foot of snow fell near Wilson. The last two winters have featured above normal snowfall for most of our area, but we are not able to use that to make any forecasts for the current winter.

So far, we have mostly been in a mild weather pattern this winter and have yet to see any measurable snow. In a mild winter, we can still have cold snaps just like earlier this week. To produce snow, that cold air just has to phase up with a moisture source. That did not happen this week, but that does not mean it will not happen later. This winter season is young after all. There are a few examples of big snows in North Carolina as late as March.

It is pretty much impossible to forecast snowfall more than a few days ahead in our area. I can say with some certainty that there is no snow expected over the next week. Our temperatures will be climbing back to above normal levels for this time of year over the next few days. There are some early signs that we could be in for another cold blast around the middle of this month. It is just much too early to speculate whether or not that will phase up with any moisture to produce snow.

Again this winter season is still young, so stay tuned!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Arctic Blast Will Be Short Lived

2012-01-03T09:46:00.003-05:00

The last two winters were cold ones for the Carolinas. If you recall, when we had a blast of Arctic air the last couple of winters, the cold air stuck around for a while. That is a different story for our current cold snap.

Just take a look at the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center...

Above normal temperatures are forecast to return to much of the country in that outlook. The warm up here in the Carolinas should be a fairly big warm up by the weekend. We'll see the coldest temperatures of our current Arctic blast Wednesday morning when lows may drop to the upper teens in some areas. Highs Wednesday will climb to the 40s, but those highs should return to near 60 by Friday and the low to mid 60s Saturday.

In addition to the milder weather, dry weather is on our forecast the next several days. A few rain showers will be possible by late Saturday night and Sunday. The forecast does become uncertain into next week as models are not in agreement on rain chances for the first few days of the week. Stay tuned for updates in our Weather on the Ones forecast.

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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USAID FRONTLINES: From Famine to Feast in Brazil

2011-11-22T12:44:00.000-05:00

USAID FRONTLINES: From Famine to Feast in Brazil

I thought in this time of gratitude that you would enjoy reading a story of a nation's turnaround to abundance from famine.....
Have a safe and bountiful holiday .
Pati Darak

Hurricane Irene - Friday PM Update

2011-08-26T17:47:00.003-04:00

What to expect Friday night - Saturday morning:

Crystal Coast (Morehead City-Atlantic Beach-Emerald Isle)

Hurricane force winds possible after midnight and into Saturday morning

6-10" of rain possible with localized higher amounts

Storm surge up to 10 feet possible resulting in a worst case of 4-6feet inudation about sea level in the surge zone

Inland from the Crystal Coast (New Bern - Havelock - Newport)

Hurricane force wind gusts possible after midnight and into Saturday morning

6-8" of rain possible leading to some flooding

Onslow County (Jacksonville)

Hurricane force wind gusts

4-6 foot storm surge along the coast

6-8" of rain possible

Cape Fear region and coast (Wilmington - Wrightsville Beach - Brunswick Co.)

Tropical storm force winds will continue into the early morning with a hurricane force gust not out of the question along the coastal areas

4-6 foot storm surge along the coast

5-8" of rain possible

I-95 corridor (Johnston County - Wilson - Goldsboro)

Wind gusts up to 60mph possible

3-6" of rain with localized higher amounts possible

Triangle and Sandhills (Raleigh -Durham - Chapel Hill - Fayetteville)

Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph possible

1-2" of rain with some higher amounts in the eastern parts of this area and lower amounts to the west

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates through the night and day

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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Hurricane Irene - Wednesday Update

2011-08-24T12:38:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Irene strengthened into a category 3 hurricane Wednesday morning and appears to be tracking toward the U.S. East Coast. The storm should take a more northwest and eventually more northerly turn steering the storm just east of Florida and toward North Carolina's Outer Banks. The latest forecast track has shifted to the east compared to earlier in the week.

Here's a look at some of the latest computer model forecasts from Wednesday --
There are now several models showing Irene's center passing just east of the Outer Banks. Keep in mind Irene is a large storm and even if the storm's center passes just east of the Outer Banks much of coastal North Carolina will still be impacted by the storm. Tropical storm force winds (40mph+) extend up to 200 miles from the storm's center.

A track directly over the Outer Banks as a strong category 2 or category 3 storm would not only bring damaging winds and flooding rains to that area, but it would create overwash from the ocean and sounds. A track just to the east may not be quite as devastating but would still produce hurricane force winds (75mph+) along the Outer Banks along with heavy rain and some overwash. Gusts up to 100mph cannot be ruled out especially near Hatteras.

Based on the latest forecast track, here's what we expect for other areas in North Carolina:

Crystal Coast (Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Morehead City)

Outer rain bands from Irene arrive Friday. Rain, which could be heavy at times, will continue Friday night and into Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds are possible Friday night and Saturday. Wind gusts up to 60 to 65mph possible. Could see a higher gust at Cape Lookout.

Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the Cape Fear Coast (Topsail Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Carolina Beach, Oak Island, Holden Beach, Ocean Isle)

Outer rain bands from Irene arrive Friday. Rain will continue Friday night into Saturday. Heavy downpours are possible at times.

Tropical storm force winds are possible Friday night and Saturday. Gusts up to 50mph possible.

Wilson and Goldsboro

Scattered showers and a few storms are possible Friday afternoon and Saturday.

Sustained winds 10-25mph expected with on occasional gust up to 30 or 35mph possible Saturday.

Triangle and Sandhills (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill and Fayetteville)

Minimal impacts from Irene

Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon with some rain possible Saturday. However, some locations may see very little if any rain.

Sustained winds: 10-20mph with an occasional higher gust.

Irene will quickly move away from the North Carolina coast late Saturday night and early Sunday. The storm will quickly accelerate up the east coast and could track over or near Long Island, New York as a hurricane Sunday.

All of the expected mentioned in this post could change if there is a change in the forecast track. A jog just a little to the west or to the east could change the expected impact in your area. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest information.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Hurricane Irene -- Monday AM Update

2011-08-22T09:34:00.006-04:00

Hurricane Irene is strengthening this morning as it pulls away from Puerto Rico. It appears the storm will brush past the Dominican Republic and Haiti over the next day. As the center of the storm tracks just to the north of Hispaniola, it will not likely be impacted by the mountainous terrain of that island. Often when storms track directly over Hispaniola, they weaken. This is not likely to happen with Irene. With the storm staying just north of the island, it is expected to maintain its strength or continue to strengthen.

As the storm tracks over the Bahamas and just east of Florida, conditions may be favorable for rapid strengthening from mid to late week. This morning's forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Irene as a strong category 2 storm by the end of the week. That is a conservative forecast, and Irene could certainly be stronger. Coastal residents should always prepare for a storm that is at least one category stronger than forecast.

It is still much too early to make a call on an exact location for landfall for the storm in the southeastern US. A look at the computer models posted below shows uncertainty from Florida to here in North Carolina.

It does appear the storm could make landfall somewhere from Florida to the Outer Banks. Even if Irene makes landfall around Georgia or southern South Carolina, the remnants of the storm could still track over North Carolina this weekend.

A lot could and likely will change with Irene's forecast over the coming days. There is still plenty of time to monitor the latest forecasts. Everyone in the Carolinas should have their preparedness plan and be ready to act later this week if necessary.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for updates. You can tune in for our tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Trouble Brewing in the Tropics?

2011-08-18T09:25:00.007-04:00

We're watching two areas in the the tropics today. The first disturbance located in the Caribbean south of Cuba is becoming better organized this morning and could become our next tropical depression or tropical storm later today or tomorrow. Most models take that system toward Central America.

The disturbance that is of more interest to our area is way out in the Atlantic - just under 900 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. While we don't expect any development of that disturbance today, conditions should become favorable for development as it moves to the west over the coming days. Some computer models, including the GFS shown below, forecast this becoming a tropical system and tracking toward the U.S. by late next week.

We should note this is just one run of one computer model, but the GFS has been fairly consistent over the last couple of days showing this storm approaching the U.S. As expected, with this more than a week away, it has not been consistent with exactly where the storm would go. A lot will likely change with its forecast over the coming days. No one should take this forecast and say a hurricane will definitely threaten the U.S. next week. It is just a note to pay attention to the tropics over the coming days.

We'll keep you posted with our tropical updates at :21 after the hour. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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A Break from the Heat?

2011-08-10T09:39:00.004-04:00

It has been a very hot summer in the Carolinas including several days at or above 100. There are now signs we'll get a break from the extreme heat into much of next week. The extended outlook for the next 6 to 10 days from the Climate Prediction Center has near to below normal temperatures for most of the east coast including North Carolina.

We average highs in the upper 80s to near 90 through mid-August. At an early glance, I would anticipate highs in the mid and upper 80s for much of next week with morning lows in the 60s. That sure beats the upper 90s to near 100! Of course, errors in forecasting grow with time, so this long range forecast is not a guarantee. It is nice to say for now that we may get through next week with highs below 90!

The news isn't so good for the central U.S. where the summer has been even hotter than here. The above normal temperatures will likely continue there next week. Much of Texas including Dallas should continue their streak of 100+ degree days.

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Will Emily Redevelop?

2011-08-05T09:14:00.003-04:00

Tropical Storm Emily fell apart Thursday afternoon as it was tracking over Haiti. What remains of the system is just a disorganized area of low pressure that is tracking toward the Bahamas. While we don't expect the storm to redevelop today, some redevelopment is possible Saturday. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 60% chance it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm again.

Even if Emily redevelops, the storm is expected to stay offshore...
The only impacts in North Carolina would be the danger of rip currents at our beaches. Scattered afternoon storms are still possible this weekend, but those are unrelated to what is now the remnants of Emily.

For the latest on the tropics, tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour on News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Tropical Storm Emily - Thursday AM Update

2011-08-04T10:03:00.005-04:00

Not a lot has changed with the thinking on the forecast for Tropical Storm Emily. As of this morning, the storm was just on the south side of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Emily has been nearly stationary for a while but is expected to move to the west-northwest to the northwest later today. That will take the storm across parts of Haiti and eastern Cuba tonight through early tomorrow. It could weaken some as it interacts with land and some wind shear.

Emily should track over the Bahamas into the weekend where conditions will be favorable for strengthening. The storm is then expected to turn to the north and eventually to the northeast Sunday.

A few models still show the storm tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico, but that appears to be an unlikely scenario at this time. Emily could become a category 1 hurricane as it tracks just of the Carolina coast. On this track, it will stay far enough offshore that even locations along the immediate coast will not see rain from the storm. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible this weekend, but are not related to Emily. The only impact from the storm in North Carolina may be from rough surf and dangerous rip currents.

We still must watch Emily carefully, if the storm were to track just a little closer to the coast, the forecast could still change significantly. Stay tuned to our tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour on News 14 Carolina for the latest.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Tropical Storm Emily - Wednesday AM Update

2011-08-03T09:30:00.004-04:00

There have not been any big changes in Tropical Storm Emily since Tuesday evening. As of the 8am update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm still has sustained winds around 50mph and is expected to pass near or over the Dominican Republic and Haiti late today and tonight. Hispaniola is a mountainous island, which should weaken the storm. There are some cases where a storm falls apart all together, but most models do not show that happening at this time.

It will be important to monitor how well Emily stays together after passing over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Once it emerges over the Bahamas late Thursday and Friday, conditions will be favorable for strengthening. In fact, several models now show Emily becoming a hurricane off the southeast coast this weekend. The next tricky part of the forecast becomes the track Emily takes and how close it comes to the coast.
Most models now turn Emily to the northeast Sunday taking it off the Carolina coast, but not all of the models agree just how far offshore the storm will track. At this time, I do not anticipate any impacts from Emily in central North Carolina including the Triangle and Sandhills. Impacts along the coast will all depend on the exact track. A track close to the coast would bring rain and wind. If the storm stays farther offshore, the only impacts would be rough surf and rip currents. As with any tropical system, the track and intensity forecast could change over the coming days changing the forecast impacts on our area. If you have beach plans this weekend, I would not cancel them yet, just stay alert to the latest forecast.

Scattered afternoon storms unrelated to Emily are still possible this weekend.

Be sure to stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecast. We'll have tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour through the week.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Tracking Emily - Tuesday Morning Update

2011-08-02T09:00:00.003-04:00

Tropical Storm Emily formed Monday evening and, so far, has maintained its strength as a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 40mph. It will likely be tough for the storm to strengthen all that much over the next couple of days. It may encounter shear and dry air that could limit strengthening today, and then it will track over or close to the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The island of Hispaniola is a mountainous region that sometimes rips apart tropical systems. Emily will likely at least weaken as it tracks over or close to Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings Emily over the Bahamas around the end of the week where it could strengthen as it tracks close to the southeast coast of the U.S. this weekend.

It's important to note there is uncertainty with the track and intensity forecast late this week and this weekend. While most models keep the storm just off the southeast coast, a few others actually take the system into the Gulf of Mexico.

There are even a couple models that weaken Emily all together. It is much too early to make a call if Emily will threaten North Carolina. Everyone from the Florida Gulf coast to the coast of the Carolinas should watch for the latest updates on Emily. Here in North Carolina, tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour for the latest forecast.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Tracking Bret

2011-07-18T08:56:00.007-04:00

Tropical Storm Bret developed this weekend near the Bahamas, but it is not expected to be a threat to the east coast. The storm will track off the Carolina coast through Wednesday when it should take a more easterly turn. This will take the storm into the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic where Bret will weaken late in the week.

At this point, coastal North Carolina could use the soaking rains from a weak tropical system to help alleviate extreme drought conditions. Unfortunately, Bret will stay far enough offshore that no rain is expected from the storm along the coast. The storm will kick up rough surf and create dangerous rip currents for beach goers through midweek.

For the latest forecast on Bret and more on the tropics, be sure to tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Enjoy the Weekend Weather; Extreme Heat Returns Next Week

2011-07-15T09:14:00.008-04:00

Today is off to the great start with the coolest morning in a month! The low dropped to 60 at the Raleigh -Durham Airport this morning - just 2 degrees away from the record low for the date. Wilmington tied the record low with 64. This comes just days after record highs.

Unfortunately, the cooler summer weather won't stick around for too long. A heat wave will be building across the central U.S. from this weekend through early next week and will then build east around mid to late next week.

Some computer model forecasts show Wednesday through Friday next week could be just as hot or even hotter that the middle of this week when Raleigh hit 100 on Tuesday and Wilmington hit 102 on Wednesday. The heat index peaked between 105 and 109 both days in much of our area. The long range heat index forecast for next Thursday (July 21) shows the heat index could get as high as 110 to 115!

Keep in mind this is still several days away, but there are clear indications that the oppressive heat and humidity will return next week. Exactly how hot is still somewhat uncertain at this point. We'll keep you posted through the weekend and next week with our latest Weather on the Ones forecasts. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
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Your Guide to Stormfest 2011 - Raleigh

2011-06-16T09:07:00.003-04:00

If you're a weather enthusiast, don't miss Stormfest 2011 Saturday, June 18 from 9am until 5pm at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences in Raleigh. This free event is a great opportunity for adults and children to learn more about the hurricane season and the recent severe weather in North Carolina. News 14 Carolina's Weather on the Ones team will be there along with other groups including the National Weather Service, Red Cross, SKYWARN, American Radio Emergency Services, State Medical Assistance Team, Urban Search and Rescue, State Veterinary Emergency Response, Wake County Emergency Management, Highway Patrol, National Guard, NC Baptist Men, WakeMed, Rex Healthcare, and local fire departments.

Stop by the News 14 Carolina/Weather on the Ones booth to pick up our severe weather safety guide plus other freebies we have to give away!

You may also be interested in talks that will be given through the day at Stormfest. Here's a schedule of events --

9:45am - Story time for kids - Windows on the World room

10:30am - Ask the Experts panel discussion with Lee Ringer and other local meteorologists - main auditorium

11:00am - What You Need to Know about Family Prepareness with the Red Cross - Windows on the World room

11:30am - Weather Whys for Kids with Pati Darak - Blue classroom (3rd floor)

12noon - Storm Chasing - Vortex II project with NC State University - Windows on the World room

12:30pm - North Carolina hurricane history with author Jay Barnes - main auditorium

1:15pm - Weather Whys for Kids with Joshua McKinney - Blue classroom (3rd floor)

2:30pm - Ask the Experts panel discussion with Gary Stephenson and other local meteorologists - main auditorium

3:30pm - What You Need to Know about Family Preparedness with the Red Cross - Windows on the World room

Stormfest 2011 - Wilmington

2011-05-06T08:47:00.003-04:00

We're hoping to see you this Saturday at Wilmington's Stormfest 2011! Stormfest will be held from 10am until 4pm at the Cape Fear Museum. Admission to the museum is free for this special event! Stop by anytime from 10am until 4pm to learn more about our recent active severe weather season and the upcoming hurricane season. Chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson and meteorologist Lee Ringer will be on hand. Stop by our booth to pick up our new weather safety guide along with other freebies from News 14 Carolina and Time Warner Cable.

Other Stormfest participants include the Wilmington National Weather Service Office, the American Red Cross, New Hanover County Emergency Management, Pender County Emergency Management, the New Hanover County Library, the US Coast Guard, and other local TV stations.

Here are just some of the special events taking place during Stormfest:

10:30am to Noon - SkyWarn Storm Spotter Training with Josh Weiss of the Wilmington National Weather Service

Noon to 1:00pm - Ask the Expert: Meteorologists - Ask your weather questions to a panel of local TV meteorologists including News 14 Carolina's chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson

1pm to 2pm - Ask the Expert: Emergency Managers

2pm to 3pm - Hurricane Hazel: What if it Happened Today?

Door prizes will be given away through the day!

Parking for Stormfest is available at the Cape Fear Musuem. Additional parking is available at Jengo's Playhouse on the corner of Princess and 9th Street, at Norris, Kuske, and Tunstall Consulting Engineering on 9th Street, and at W.K. Dickson.

Raleigh's Stormfest will be head Saturday, June 18 at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences. More details to come...

Thursday's Storm Threat

2011-04-27T08:47:00.003-04:00

Today we're watching a potent spring storm system marching across Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky. A severe weather outbreak is expected through the day in that part of the country with tornadoes likely. That same storm system will move across the Carolinas late Wednesday night through Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central and eastern North Carolina under a slight risk for severe weather Thursday -
A line of storms is expected to move through the Triad and Charlotte areas early Thursday morning possibly before daybreak. The storms will approach the Triangle and Sandhills from the morning commute through midday and then move across eastern North Carolina from late morning through afternoon. The greatest threat from any strong storms will come from damaging straight line winds, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina. We'll keep you updated with the latest forecast.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Strong Storms Possible Late Wednesday Night into Thursday

2011-03-09T09:21:00.003-05:00

A potent storm system is moving across the southeastern US today and could bring strong storms to the Carolinas late tonight and tomorrow. Early this morning severe storms have been marching across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The rain and storms will be slow to move into our part of North Carolina leaving most of the daytime hours Wednesday with not much more than a few sprinkles or light showers.

Widespread rain will likely move into central and eastern North Carolina tonight. A few strong storms will be possible at that time. The threat for severe weather should mainly start around 10pm for the Triangle and Sandhills and continue through the overnight hours. The threat should come more toward early morning for coastal North Carolina but could start before daybreak. There is a slight chance that a few overnight storms may produce an isolated tornado. This is especially dangerous because of the overnight timing. Many people will be asleep and will not be aware of any warnings. Be sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio in standby mode tonight to alert you to any warnings in your area. Over 80% of tornado deaths in North Carolina occur at night.

Showers and storms will continue off and on through the day Thursday. The severe threat will come more from damaging wind gusts from any strong storms during the daytime. The rain and storms should come to an end by late afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts should range between 1 and 2 inches across much of our area.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates. We'll be here around the clock for the latest information through the day and night.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

More Rain Needed

2011-03-01T09:00:00.003-05:00

Monday evening's showers and thunderstorms some much needed rain to the region, but more is needed.

Here's a look rainfall from Monday -

Raleigh (NCSU): 1.10"
Fayetteville: 0.80"
Durham: 0.79"
Wilmington: 0.77"
Clayton: 0.75"
Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.74"
Chapel Hill: 0.71"
Cherry Point: 0.65"
Jacksonville: 0.65"
Raleigh-Durham Airport: 0.62"
Goldsboro: 0.63"
Whiteville: 0.63"
Beaufort: 0.60"
Oak Island: 0.54"
Kure Beach: 0.47"

Even with Monday's rain, the rainfall deficit stands at 3.84" since January 1 and 4.50" since December 1 at the Raleigh-Durham Airport. As noted in the above drought map, coastal North Carolina is not currently experiencing drought conditions like central parts of the state. The rainfall deficit for Wilmington since January 1 now stands at just 1.02"

The recent dry conditions are concerning because the time period of October through April is critical to recharge water levels in lakes, rivers, and ground water. Ground water levels have been especially low in parts of central North Carolina.

Dry weather is in the forecast through the rest of the week. However, it appears rain will return Sunday. Amounts are still uncertain at this time, and is often the case heading into the spring months, we'll have to watch for strong storms. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecasts.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Chance for Storms Monday Evening

2011-02-28T08:37:00.002-05:00

Today is starting unusually warm for the final day of February. Morning temperatures in the 60s should return to near 80 in many spots by afternoon. RDU should break its record high of 80 for the date. Wilmington should fall just shy of its record of 85 this afternoon. This warm air is building in ahead of an approaching storm system that has already produced severe storms early this morning in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Some of these storms could move our way through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Before the storms arrive, look for windy weather through the afternoon. Winds will be sustained from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph but could gust up to 40mph at times. A Wind Advisory is in effect through the afternoon for the Triangle and Sandhills.

Look for showers and strong storms to move across the mountains this afternoon. It appears the storms may lose some of their intensity east of the mountains, but a few strong storms are still possible here by evening. The greatest threat from any strong storms will come from damaging winds. The storms should move east of the Triangle and Sandhills by around midnight and will be moving off the coast by around 2-3am.

This system will certainly not provide a drought busting soaking rain that is needed in many parts of our region. Rainfall totals should range from between 0.1" and 0.3". Slightly higher totals are possible in stronger storms.

Cooler and dry weather will move in for tomorrow. After tonight, our next chance for rain isn't expected until the weekend.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Are We Done with Winter Weather?

2011-02-11T09:31:00.006-05:00

After what has been an active and cold winter, a prolonged warm up is ahead for next week! Highs will likely reach the 60s for much of the week with 70s possible by late week. There are signs that the warm weather will stick around for much of the rest of February. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center both show warmer than warmer temperatures for the Carolinas --

Even though an early taste of spring is on the way, we can't say that we are totally done with the bitter cold of winter. After all, cold weather is not unheard of in North Carolina during March. We also can't say we are done with snow for the season. There are several examples of snow across the state during the month of March. In fact, it has snowed across much of North Carolina during the first two days of March the last two years:

Even larger snows have occurred later in March including an 8" snowfall just east of Raleigh March 24-25, 1983.

One of the largest snowfalls on record for northeastern North Carolina occurred March 1-2, 1981. That storm produced over 2 feet of snow in the northeast corner of the state, nearly a foot in parts of the Triangle, and over a foot just inland from the Crystal Coast.

The forecast for March 2011 is uncertain at this time. We'll wait and see if the cold returns. In the meantime, enjoy the spring-like temperatures over the next week or two!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Snow Chances for Early Thursday Morning

2011-02-09T10:14:00.002-05:00

Light snow will spread into central North Carolina late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The precipitation may start during that time as light rain closer to the coast. Much of eastern North Carolina will transition to snow through the early morning hours.

Some accumulation is possible with the best chance for snow accumulations east and southeast of Raleigh. Across the Triangle, look for a trace (not even a dusting) to 1". Near I-95 from Fayetteville to Wilson and Goldsboro, 1-3" of snow is possible, but the higher end of that range may come just east of those areas. The highest snow totals may come from near Jacksonville Havelock, and Morehead City to Greenville and Elizabeth City where 2-5" is possible. Along the southeast coast near Wilmington, temperatures may hover just above freezing, so little to no accumulation is expected especially along the immediate southeast coast.

Any snow will end from the west to the east through the morning. The snow may taper off as early as around daybreak in the Triangle to late morning and midday along the coast. Skies will clear in the Triangle and Sandhills by afternoon with some limited sun by afternoon at the coast. Temperatures should warm to at least the low 40s in the afternoon.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Light Snow Possible Thursday Morning

2011-02-08T15:08:00.002-05:00

Low pressure off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning may produce light snow in parts of our area. Precipitation totals look light at this time with the best chance of any accumulation coming near I-95 and locations to the east to the coast. This area including Fayetteville, Wilson, Goldsboro, Morehead City, and Wilmington could see anywhere from just a dusting to up to 2 inches in some spots. Closer to the Triangle any snowfall should be light enough to where little to no accumulation is expected, although just a dusting cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures early Thursday morning will drop to just below freezing around the Triangle and Sandhills to near freezing along the coast but should warm to at least the low 40s Thursday afternoon. Any snow should end by mid-morning across eastern North Carolina.

A change in the expected track and strength in low pressure off our coast could change our current forecast. Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

What We are Watching This Week

2011-02-07T09:02:00.002-05:00

This week should be an interesting week of weather in North Carolina. It starts with low pressure tracking from near the Gulf coast this morning to off the Carolina coast later today and tonight. That will bring rain to the coast by this afternoon. The rain should spread inland through late afternoon and evening. Coastal areas should see about 1" of rain with lower amounts inland. The Triangle and Sandhills may see less than 0.25" with the possibility that areas in the northwest Triangle may not see much in the way of measurable rain. Clearing is expected by early Tuesday morning.

Somewhat cooler weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll watch another area of low pressure develop near the Gulf coast Wednesday and track off the Carolina coast by Thursday. Computer models have shown a lot of variability in the track and strength of this low in their forecasts since late last week. Some snow is possible in parts of the state late Wednesday night into Thursday, but amounts and locations of snowfall will all be determined by the track of the low. Models have been trending toward lighter amounts of precipitation. It is really too early to make any definite calls on the Thursday forecast. We'll have to continue to watch model trends and should have a better handle on Thursday's forecast by tomorrow and Wednesday.

For those of you tired of the cold winter weather, a warm up is on the way starting this weekend. Friday looks chilly, but temperatures should steadily warm through the weekend. Much of next week could feature temperatures above normal for a change.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Needed Rain

2011-02-04T09:36:00.004-05:00

The new drought monitor released Thursday upgraded parts of central North Carolina to a severe drought. Fortunately, much needed rainfall will fall through today, tonight, and into early Saturday. Coastal North Carolina is the only part of the state that is not considered to be at least "abnormally dry." The coast will see the most rain with this storm system with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible. Central North Carolina including the Triangle and Sandhills should see between 0.5" and 1" with localized amounts over an inch around Fayetteville and east of the Triangle.

Today's rain certainly is a cold rain with temperatures holding in the 30s through the day around the Triangle and highs only in the mid 40s along the coast. Milder weather is ahead for the weekend as the rain ends. Highs should return to the 50s for Saturday and Sunday.

More rain chances are coming up next week. A few light showers are possible late Monday or early Tuesday, but the better rain chances look to come late Wednesday into Thursday. Computer models are showing a lot of uncertainty for the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday. It appears low pressure will track from near the Gulf coast to the Carolinas. At this point, it looks like the precipitation would be mainly rain for the Triangle and the Sandhills to the coast, but we'll have to watch the track of that system closely over the coming days.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Should We Trust the Groundhog's Forecast?

2011-02-02T09:09:00.004-05:00

Happy Groundhog Day! It's the one day of year that many people listen to the weather forecast of a rodent. There are many different groundhogs making their predictions across the country today, but the best known groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil of Pennsylvania. Phil made his prediction around sunrise this morning when he did not see his shadow. According to folklore, that means an early spring. Punxsutawney Phil does not have a very good track record though with an accuracy rate of only 39%.

North Carolina's own groundhog, Sir Walter Wally has a better track record than Phil. He will make his forecast at noon today in Raleigh. It has been a cloudy start to Groundhog Day in Raleigh, but the clouds should break some around midday. Sir Walter Wally may just see his shadow predicting six more weeks of winter.

What do the long range forecasts from meteorologists say about the rest of winter? The February forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows equal chances of above normal and below normal temperatures in the Carolinas. While we have had a few warmer days in the last week, it will not stay warm. Below normal afternoon highs will return to the Carolinas tomorrow and Friday. After a few days into early next week of near to above normal temperatures, colder weather looks to return around the middle of next week.

It is tough to say if the cold winter weather we have experienced so far this winter will stick around for the next six weeks. It's best to take long range forecasts with a grain of salt anyway -- whether that forecast is from a groundhog or a human meteorologist. You may remember the long range forecast for this winter was for warmer than average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. That warmer part of that forecast has certainly not worked out. The drier forecast has been more accurate. Since December, Raleigh-Durham is 3.43" behind in rainfall. Wilmington was about 2" behind for January.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Mainly Rain for Tuesday into Wednesday

2011-01-25T09:06:00.003-05:00

Low pressure is still set to track from near the Gulf coast today to near the Carolina coast tonight and tomorrow. This will spread mostly rain across North Carolina by this afternoon and this evening. Rain will continue into the night when a few thunderstorms are possible along the immediate coast.

Occasional rain showers are expected through Wednesday. The rain will change to a heavy wet snow for the North Carolina mountains by Wednesday morning. Areas east of the mountains stand very little chance to see accumulating snow. As the precipitation ends, the northwest Piedmont (northwest of Raleigh and the Triangle) may see a quick burst of snow. If the snow comes down heavy enough, a quick dusting on grassy surfaces is possible in the late afternoon from Greensboro to Roxboro to Oxford and Henderson. There is just a slight chance the Triangle may see a little snow mix in with the rain as the precipitation ends Wednesday afternoon and evening, but that chance appears very small right now.

The rain will be a welcome sight especially in central North Carolina where moderate drought conditions are building across the region. However, rain totals in the central parts of the state may not be as high as first thought yesterday...

It now appears the Triangle and Sandhills will see between 0.5" and 1" of rain while coastal locations could see between 1-2" with locally higher amounts.

Check in with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for updates on the forecast!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Rain by Late Tuesday; What about Wednesday?

2011-01-24T09:29:00.004-05:00

Low pressure tracking from near the Gulf coast to near the Carolina coast (or just inland from the Carolina coast) will bring mainly rain to our part of North Carolina for Tuesday into Wednesday. Ever since last week, there was a lot of uncertainty on whether or not this storm would produce snow. While this storm will produce mainly rain in our area, there is still the possibility for a change to some snow around the Triangle to the north and west before ending Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Look for rain to spread across the the Sandhills and coastal areas through Tuesday afternoon with the rain reaching the Triangle by late afternoon and evening. A few light showers are possible in eastern North Carolina mainly near the coast Monday night and early Tuesday morning associated with a coastal front, but the higher rain chance will come by late day Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Precipitation will continue through Tuesday night as all rain across the region. A few thunderstorms may develop right along the coast late Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain showers will continue into Wednesday. Locations south and east of Raleigh should see the precipitation end by late afternoon and evening as rain. From the Triangle to the north and west, it is possible the rain could change to snow for ending. A narrow band of heavy wet snow may fall for a couple to a few hours with the passage of an upper level low pressure system. The better chance for this may come just north and west of the Triangle. A slight change in the track in the upper level low could bring some accumulating snow over the Triangle late Wednesday or take it northwest of the Triangle. By tomorrow, we should have a better idea on what areas may see a change over to snow, but we may not be fully certain until the upper low is actually tracking over the Carolinas Wednesday. The best chance to see accumulating snow Wednesday in North Carolina will be in the higher elevations of the mountains.

Fortunately, this system will bring some much needed rain to our area. Much of central and eastern North Carolina should see between 1-2" of rain with some locally heavier amounts possible near the coast.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates on the forecast.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Sunday AM Update

2011-01-23T07:49:00.002-05:00

The Crystal Coast and parts of the Outer Banks were surprised with the amount of snow they received yesterday. Beaufort, Emerald Isle, and Havelock all reported 7" of snow! Locations along the southeast coast saw much less snow with only 0.1" reported in Wilmington.

Now our attention turns to the storm system expected to impact North Carolina Tuesday into Wednesday. While there is still uncertainty with this storm, it does appear precipitation will start as rain Tuesday for the Triangle and Sandhills and continue as rain into Tuesday night. By early Wednesday. the rain could change to snow for areas just north and west of the Triangle. The Triangle could be very close to the fine line between an area that will see all rain and the area that could change over to snow. Heavy snow is possible during this time period in the North Carolina mountains and foothills. Coastal areas can expect all rain for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Keep in mind the track and strength of low pressure that will move from the the Gulf Coast to near the Carolina coast will ultimately determine the type and amount of precipitation. A slight change in this track could easily create a big change in the forecast.

Just a cold rain is certainly a possibility for much of our area, but a change over to snow is also still a possibility in some locations. We should have better handle on the forecast by Monday. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest in our Weather on the Ones updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Coastal Snow - Saturday

2011-01-22T17:55:00.003-05:00

Just a quick update for Saturday evening... heavier snow than expected set up along the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon. As of this posting just before 6pm, we had reports of as much as 7" of snow in Havelock and Emerald Isle and 5" in Morehead City. The snow will taper off along the Crystal Coast into the evening. For more on the latest weather conditions and forecast, check in with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina.

Today's snow along the Crystal Coast just points out how difficult winter weather forecasting is in North Carolina. Low pressure has stayed right off the coast with the precipitation just grazing the coast. However that precipitation just grazing the coast has been enough to produce up to 7" of snow so far in some spots!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Saturday AM Update

2011-01-22T08:11:00.003-05:00

Parts of the immediate North Carolina coastline should see some light snow today with the best chance coming during the afternoon and evening. As we have discussed here on the blog over the last couple of days, most of the precipitation with this low pressure should stay offshore. However, some precipitation may just graze the coast and that precipitation should fall as snow. Snowfall amounts should be relatively light with anywhere from a trace to 2" possible close to the immediate coast. I would expect the lighter end of that range along the Cape Fear coast (Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender Counties) with perhaps the higher end of that range along coastal Onslow County, Carteret County, and the southern Outer Banks.

Then our attention turns to next week when several computer models have advertised a winter storm impacting parts of North Carolina from Tuesday into Wednesday. The exact track of this low pressure will determine what parts of the state will see snow and what parts will see rain. Coastal areas will more than likely see mainly rain out of this storm, but the Triangle and Sandhills could fall very close to the rain/snow line. It is still too early to say with any certainty if the Triangle and Sandhills would see mainly snow, mainly rain, or a mix of the two. This morning's hazardous weather outlook from Raleigh's National Weather Service Forecast Office has a good summary of what is possible during that time period:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.

..SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR OUR REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A STORM TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

IF THIS TRACK DEVIATES MORE INLAND... THEN LESS OF A WINTER STORM IMPACT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT. DETAILS OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM CONTINUE TO VARY. IT WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST CAN BE FINE TUNED.

STAY TUNED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DETAILS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

We'll keep you posted with the latest forecast with our Weather on the Ones updates on News 14 Carolina!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Friday AM Update

2011-01-21T08:48:00.002-05:00

Computer models appear to be in better agreement this morning that low pressure will track up the Carolina coast during the early to middle part of next week bringing snow and rain to North Carolina. Some areas will see just rain, others will see all snow, and other may see a mix of snow to rain to snow.

Since we are still several days away, it is still much too early to make a call on what locations in the state could see significant snow and what areas would see just a cold rain. Based on the latest model data this morning, the Triangle would fall very close to the rain/snow line with significant snows possible to the west especially in the foothills and mountains. However, that all depends on the exact track of the low pressure. If the track changes more to the east, more significant snow would be possible toward the Triangle and even the Sandhills. At the same time, a more inland or westerly track would mean just rain for those areas. It appears the coast would mainly see just rain.

I caution that all of this is subject to change. Nailing down the exact track of low pressure that hasn't even developed yet is pretty much impossible at this point. We are still several days away and the models don't fully have a handle on how this storm system will evolve. Keep an eye on the forecast especially for Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday.

On another note, before we get to next week, low pressure will develop off the southeast coast Saturday. It should stay far enough offshore that any precipitation with that low will be out to sea. There is just a slight chance that the southern Outer Banks and Crystal Coast could see a few flurries or light snow showers Saturday evening.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecast!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Is More Winter Weather on the Way?

2011-01-20T16:59:00.003-05:00

It has been quite the winter so far in the Carolinas, and we're only about half way through the season! After a brief warm up during the middle of this week, colder temperatures will return for the weekend, and the chance for winter precipitation could return by early next week.

Before we get to next week though, we'll have to keep an eye on low pressure that will develop off the southeast coast Saturday. This low should stay far enough offshore to keep most precipitation offshore. However, it is possible that the low tracks a little closer to the coast spreading snow flurries or light snow showers across coastal areas late Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening. The Triangle and Sandhills will stay dry with no precipitation over the weekend.

Then our attention turns to Monday into Tuesday of next week. Cold air will be in place over central North Carolina as low pressure tracks from near the Gulf coast to off the Carolina coast. Since this is still several days away, details with this system are still very uncertain and computer models are not in full agreement with exactly how this weather system will set up. It does appear precipitation will start by late Monday across the Sandhills and Triangle as some type of winter precipitation - either snow or a wintry mix. The precipitation may change to a cold rain into Tuesday in the Sandhills. The Triangle may be right on the dividing line between an area that sees mainly winter precipitation and an area that changes to a cold rain. At this time, it appears coastal areas would mainly just see rain showers. Precipitation amounts are uncertain at this point, so it's too early to say if this will just be a nuisance event or a more significant event.

As with the past winter systems this season, details in the forecast should become clearer over the coming days. Stay tuned for our Weather on the Ones updates for the latest!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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January 10-11, 2011 Snowfall

2011-01-12T09:09:00.002-05:00

Snowfall totals from Monday-Tuesday, January 10-11, 2010:

Hampstead: 7.0"
Laurinburg: 7.0"
Rocky Point: 6.0"
Whiteville: 5.5"
Lumberton: 5.0"
Fayetteville: 5.0"
Raeford: 5.0"
Southern Pines: 5.0"
Elizabethtown: 5.0"
Burgaw: 4.0"
Kenansville: 4.0"
Havelock: 4.0"
Topsail Beach: 4.0"
Wilmington: 3.8"
Vander: 3.5"
Morehead City: 3.0"
Anderson Creek: 2.2"
Atlantic Beach: 1.5"
New Bern: 1.5"
Hillsborough: 1.1"
Louisburg: 1.0"
Mount Olive: 1.0"
Newton Grove: 1.0"
Roxboro: 1.0"
Sanford: 1.0"
Siler City: 1.0"
Wrightsville Beach: 1.0"
Creedmoor: 0.5"
Durham: 0.5"
Burlington: 0.5"
Chapel Hill: 0.2"
Raleigh: 0.2"
Wilson: Trace

Ice Accumulation from January 10-11, 2010:

Holly Springs: 0.2"
Laurinburg: 0.2"
Fayetteville: 0.2"
Raeford: 0.2"
Louisburg: 0.15"
Southern Pines: 0.15"
Oxford: 0.1"
Raleigh: 0.1"
Wilson: 0.1"
Goldsboro: 0.05"

Tracking Winter Weather -- Sunday Morning Update

2011-01-09T09:05:00.002-05:00

A storm system will track across the southeast into the new week spreading snow and ice across parts of the southeast including North Carolina. The details of the storm are becoming more clear for North Carolina, and it does not appear this will be a repeat of the post-Christmas snow. While some snow is possible with this storm, sleet and freezing rain could be the bigger issue for our region. Light snow is expected to spread into parts of the state near Charlotte and the NC/SC border around daybreak Monday. Because of dry air across much of central North Carolina, it will take a while for the precipitation to track north. Light snow will eventually spread from the southwest to northeast through Monday afternoon. By Monday evening, that precipitation will change to more of a wintry mix.

Based on the latest weather data, here's my thinking of what different regions of our coverage area can expect:

Triangle
Light snow will spread across the Triangle Monday afternoon or evening before changing to sleet then freezing rain or freezing drizzle Monday night. Precipitation will taper off Tuesday morning to around midday Tuesday. Around 1-2" of snow is possible before the change over to an icy mix. These accumulations will be slightly higher southwest of Raleigh and lower northeast of Raleigh. The snow accumulation will depend on the start time of the precipitation in the area. A later start time would mean less snow and an earlier start time would mean more snow accumulation. On top of any snow accumulation, 0.1" to 0.25" of ice accumulation is possible. This will create dangerous travel conditions Monday night and Tuesday morning. If ice accumulation reaches 0.25" or higher, look for power outages.

Sandhills
Light snow will spread across the Sandhills Monday morning and will then change to an icy mix by late Monday afternoon or evening. Snow accumulations of 1-4" is possible with the higher totals west of Fayetteville. Ice accumulation up to 0.25" is possible. Look for dangerous travel conditions developing Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday. If ice accumulation reaches 0.25" or higher, power outages will become a problem.

Wilson/Goldsboro
Some light snow is possible by late Monday afternoon or evening. Snow accumulation of a trace to an inch is possible. Any light snow will change to sleet and then freezing rain Monday evening and Monday night before ending Tuesday morning to around midday Tuesday. Ice accumulation of 0.1" to 0.25" is possible. Look for dangerous travel conditions Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Coastal viewing area
Light snow or a wintry mix will spread toward the southeast coast by late morning to early afternoon Monday. The precipitation will slowly build to the north through the afternoon and evening. A changeover to rain is expected by Monday evening. Most locations along the immediate coast will likely not see any accumulation as those locations will likely see mainly a cold rain. Areas inland from the coast across Columbus, Bladen, and Duplin County could see a dusting to 1" of snow/sleet accumulation with a light glazing of ice before changing to rain Monday night.

Keep in mind a change in track or intensity of this storm system could change the weather expected in your area. Winter weather forecasting is difficult in North Carolina, and changes in the forecast are still possible. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest Weather on the Ones updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Snow for Friday Night, More Snow and Ice for Early Next Week

2011-01-07T09:15:00.004-05:00

Lots of winter weather to talk about today! I'll start with a disturbance that will produce a band of snow across central North Carolina tonight. This disturbance will create heavier accumulations in the mountains, but a band of a dusting to 2" is possible across the Piedmont to northeastern North Carolina. This includes areas around the Triangle.

Tonight's snow could begin as early as late afternoon. If that happens, the precipitation would start as light rain then mix with and change to snow. Accumulations would likely be mainly on grassy surfaces but some slush may build up on roads. Locations south of the Triangle near Fayetteville can look for mainly a light rain possibly mixed with some snow as the precipitation ends. Little to no accumulation is expected in the Fayetteville area. Most of the precipitation should taper off around midnight give or take an hour or two.

Temperatures will hover in the mid 30s as the precipitation falls and then fall below freezing as the precipitation ends. Lows in the upper 20s to near 30 are expected by daybreak Saturday morning in the Triangle and Sandhills. This could create issues with black ice Saturday morning even in areas that see mainly a light rain.

For our coastal viewers, tonight's band of precipitation will mainly miss our area to the north and northwest. A few light sprinkles cannot be ruled out late tonight.

This weekend our attention then turns to the potential for a more significant winter weather system for Monday through Tuesday of next week....

Low pressure along the Gulf coast Sunday night and Monday morning will track to off the North Carolina coast by Tuesday morning. Cold air will be in place across North Carolina as precipitation spreads across the state Monday afternoon. This looks to begin as snow in the Triangle and Sandhills, but I am growing more concerned that the snow will change to sleet and freezing rain Monday night or early Tuesday morning. If that happens, it appears there would be enough icing for significant travel problems and power outages. Keep in mind that is just one scenario with this system at this point.

The forecast remains even more uncertain for early next week in coastal North Carolina. Precipitation looks certain with some rain, but that rain may change to a wintry mix for a period of time.

Since we are still a few days away, a lot could still change with the forecast for next week. It is still too early to speculate on too many specifics about this storm. Through the weekend, we should have a better idea on how all of this will come together. Check in with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina through the weekend for the latest.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
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A Winter Storm for Early Next Week?

2011-01-06T08:44:00.003-05:00

We're watching the potential for a winter storm to impact the Carolinas early next week. Computer forecast models have been somewhat consistent showing low pressure tracking from near the Gulf coast to off the Carolina coast. The exact timing is still uncertain at this point, but from Monday into Tuesday appears to be the time period this storm system would affect our area. Cold air would be in place for much of our area at that time supporting the chance for wintry precipitation.

Since we are still several days away from early next week, I would caution that it is too early to forecast any details with this storm. Some models are forecasting accumulating snow across much of North Carolina with some indications of sleet and freezing rain causing problems in a narrow band across the state. Locations closer to the coast may see more of a cold rain. Again, this is all very preliminary at this point and the forecast will likely change some between now and next week.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates through the rest of the week and the weekend.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
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Cold January?

2011-01-03T08:33:00.004-05:00

The first couple days of 2011 were much milder than most of December as temperatures reached the 60s in most of our area. Wilmington even hit 70 on New Years Day.

For most of this week, temperatures will return closer to normal for the first week of January, but even colder weather could be on the way by next week. Most long range indications show colder weather moving in for the upcoming weekend with colder than normal weather sticking around for much of next week. The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook shows colder than normal weather for much of the US --

The long range outlook for January now also calls for a colder than normal January for the Carolinas...

Will January be just as cold or colder than our very cold December? Only time will tell, but it does appear this winter will not be warmer than normal as previously forecast in the fall.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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2010: Year of Weather Extremes in NC

2010-12-29T08:39:00.009-05:00

2010 has been quite the year for weather in North Carolina. The year started with a cold and snowy winter transitioned to one of the hottest summers on record in the state and then ended with a Christmas weekend snow storm and one of the coldest Decembers on record.

A winter storm at the end of January produced snow across almost the entire state except near the southeast coast. That storm produced 6-8" of snow and sleet across the Triangle.

The late January snow was not the only winter storm to impact North Carolina in early 2010. A second winter storm produced heavier snowfall near the coast in February. As much as 8" of snow fell across Onslow and Carteret Counties from February 12 through 13. That storm produced 2-4" of snow across the Triangle and Sandhills.

The winter ended with a third snowstorm in early March that produced a band of 4-8" of snow just southwest and south of Raleigh.

After the cold winter, temperatures quickly warmed up and the summer featured the most number of 90 degree days ever recorded in Raleigh-Durham. Some of the hottest temperatures of the summer came during July when temperatures topped out at over 100 in much of the Triangle and Sandhills and over 95 in much of coastal North Carolina.

The hot summer led into an active hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. While an above average number of storms developed in the Atlantic, North Carolina was spared a direct hit. Hurricane Earl just brushed past the Outer Banks in early September.

Later in September a disorganized system produced record rainfall along the southeast coast. Over 22" of rain was recorded in Wilmington between September 26 and October 1. That was more rain that Wilmington had recorded in a one week period even topping Hurricane Floyd from 1999. The heavy rain of late September led to flooding reports in much of eastern North Carolina.

Now the year is ending with one of the coldest Decembers on record in much of the state. A winter storm from Christmas Day through December 26 produced snow across the entire state. The heaviest snow fell east of Raleigh near I-95 where locations near Wilson reported just over one foot of snow.

After a very active 2010 in weather, what will 2011 bring? It looks to at least start with above normal temperatures for New Years Day. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones through 2011 to find out what else the year may bring.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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All images courtesy of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh.

NC Snowfall Map - December 25-26, 2010

2010-12-28T09:31:00.003-05:00

Image from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh, NC. Click for a larger view.

Snow totals - December 25-26, 2010

2010-12-27T08:26:00.004-05:00

Wilson: 12.5"
Tarboro: 12.5"
Emit: 12.0"
Roanoke Rapids: 12.0"
Clayton: 10.0"
Farmville: 10.0"
Goldsboro: 10.0"
Knightdale: 10.0"
Eastover: 9.0"
Lillington: 9.0"
Smithfield: 9.0"
Raleigh: 8.5"
Louisburg: 8.2"
Roxboro: 8.0"
Youngville: 7.5"
Lumbeton: 7.2"
Raleigh-Durham Aiport: 7.1"
Fayetteville: 7.0"
Bladenboro: 6.5"
Raeford: 6.5"
Warrenton: 6.3"
Southern Pines: 6.2"
Kenansville: 6.0"
Henderson: 6.0"
Sanford: 6.0"
Greensboro (PTI Airport): 5.8"
Carthage: 5.0"
Oxford: 5.0"
Troy: 5.0"
Winston-Salem: 5.0"
Chapel Hill: 4.0"
Durham: 4.0"
Laurinburg: 4.0"
Hillsborough: 4.0"
Whiteville: 4.0"
New Bern: 3.3"
Jacksonville: 3.0"
Pittsboro: 3.0"
Atlantic Beach: 2.0"
Seagate: 2.0"
Wilmington: 0.1"

Christmas Weekend Winter Storm - Saturday AM Update

2010-12-25T08:11:00.003-05:00

Snowfall accumulation forecasts have increased since yesterday morning. Computer model forecasts show low pressure tracking closer to the Carolina coastline than previously thought. This will bring increased precipitation totals particularly for areas from the Triangle to along the I-95 corridor.

Light snow and rain may spread across the Triangle and Sandhills during Christmas Day but with daytime temperatures above freezing, little to no accumulation is expected during the day. Snow accumulations will mainly start tonight in the Triangle and Sandhills and continue into much of Sunday. Rain will spread into coastal areas this evening for coastal areas. The rain/snow line will move toward the coast Sunday morning.

A heavy band of 4-8" of snow with some pockets of more than 8" looks to set up somewhere near I-95 possibly from just northeast of Fayetteville to around Goldsboro, Wilson, Rocky Mount, Greenville and Roanoke Rapids. This heavy band may also include the eastern half of Wake and Johnston Counties. To the west of that band including western Wake County, Durham, and Chapel Hill, 2-5" of snow is expected. Snowfall accumulations will drop east of the heavy band toward the coast. Along the immediate coast, a trace to under an inch is possible with totals increasing inland toward that heavier band along I-95.

If the low tracks even closer to the coast, the heavier band of snow may shift to the Triangle. A more offshore track would mean lower accumulations.

The forecast may still change! Be prepared for dangerous travel conditions across much of North Carolina tonight through at least Monday morning.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for updates!

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Christmas Weekend Snow Forecast -- Friday AM Update

2010-12-24T09:08:00.006-05:00

We are finally gaining some confidence in the forecast for this holiday weekend! Earlier in the week we began tracking the potential for a Christmas winter storm in the Carolinas. One computer model suggested we would see a chilly light rain while another model predicted a major snowstorm for the east coast. Through midweek, it began clear that we would see some snow, but as of yesterday morning, it was very uncertain if central and eastern North Carolina would see light accumulations or a significant snowfall.

Finally late Thursday into this Christmas Eve morning, computer models are coming to a consensus toward lighter accumulations. Based on that latest data, I developed the above accumulation map for the Triangle, Sandhills, and coastal viewing areas.

Snowfall could begin as early as Christmas afternoon in the Triangle and Sandhills. It could be mixed with rain at that time. Temperatures should be warm enough that there will be little to no accumulation in the afternoon. Any afternoon precipitation near the coast will fall as light rain.

Through Christmas evening into Sunday morning, light snow will accumulate across the Triangle and Sandhills from a dusting to 2 inches. A narrow band of 1-3" with isolated spots of up to 4" is possible from near Fayetteville to around Goldsboro, Wilson, and Greenville. That narrow band of heavier snow may shift a little east or west depending on the exact track of the low.

Locations in our coastal viewing area will see light rain mix with and change to snow late Christmas night into early Sunday morning. Accumulations of a dusting to 2" are possible here with the heavier totals inland and light accumulations toward the southeast coast.

Keep in mind, while we are more certain about the forecast this morning, our forecast may still change based on the exact track and strength of low pressure off our coast. We'll be working through the Christmas weekend to keep you informed. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest!

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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White Christmas 1989

2010-12-24T08:57:00.002-05:00

Twenty-one years ago residents of southeastern North Carolina woke up to a lot of snow! A rare snow storm created a white Christmas for the North Carolina coast in 1989. Check out these pictures from the Wilmington area --

The storm produced 15" of snow in Wilmington from December 22 through December 24, 1989. Parts of Carteret County received up to 16", while the heaviest snowfall was found in western Brunswick County with 20". Four inches fell in Fayetteville while the Triangle only had a trace of snow.

Still Uncertainty with Christmas Weekend Winter Storm

2010-12-23T08:34:00.005-05:00

After reviewing the latest weather data and computer forecast models this morning, I've got to say there is still a lot of uncertainty with the forecast for Christmas night into Sunday. Snow is still expected across parts of the Carolinas. The amount of snowfall is in question. Snow accumulations and the parts of the state that will see the heaviest snowfall will all depend on the track and strength of low pressure off our coastline.

The timing of this storm has slowed down from forecasts earlier in the week. The chance to actually see a white Christmas during the daytime hours Christmas Day looks slim in our area at this point. It appears snow will spread across the piedmont to the Triangle and Sandhills Christmas night and continue into at least Sunday morning. Coastal locations will more than likely see the precipitation start as rain, but the rain/snow line may transition to the coast early Sunday morning.

Making an accumulation forecast at this point would be about like rolling dice. A major snow storm is still possible across central and eastern North Carolina. However, some data also indicates relatively light accumulations. Computer models should come into a better consensus over the next 24 hours, and we'll be able to fine tune our forecast by Christmas Eve.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina. We'll have the latest in our Weather on the Ones reports through the holiday weekend.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Winter Storm Possible for Christmas Weekend

2010-12-22T09:17:00.007-05:00

You've probably heard the buzz around town by now... North Carolina's chances for a white Christmas are much higher than most years. Yesterday, on News 14 Carolina and here on the weather blog, we discussed a couple of different scenarios with a low pressure system that will track across the southeast Christmas Day. The first scenario took the low on a more northerly route which would mean mainly a chilly rain for central and eastern North Carolina with a chance for light snow on the backside of the system. A more southerly track of the low was the second scenario. That would mean more snow for central and even eastern North Carolina. Based on most computer model data from late yesterday and this morning, it appears that second scenario (the southerly track) is more likely.

Here's a look at forecast maps from the National Weather Service for Christmas morning and Sunday morning --

This is a classic setup for a Carolina snowstorm. Keep in mind all the ingredients must come together at just the right time for a snowstorm in our part of North Carolina. At this point, it does appear mainly snow will fall across central and eastern North Carolina. Coastal locations would see rain at the onset of the precipitation, but it is possible for that rain to change to at least some snow at some point. The timing of the precipitation is still questionable at this time. Based on the latest data, it appears the precipitation would begin to fall sometime Christmas afternoon or evening and continue through the night. Snow will be possible into Sunday.

This set up would produce accumulating snowfall especially in the Triangle, Sandhills and points to the west. The forecast for coastal areas remains uncertain at this time. It is much too early to make any calls for snowfall amounts in central North Carolina. Computer models still vary from one extreme of light accumulations to the other extreme of a major snowstorm.

While a lot of folks are dreaming of a white Christmas, this storm has the potential to become a major snowstorm from the Carolinas to the northeast. This would create dangerous or impossible travel conditions. Keep in mind snowfall amounts are very uncertain at this time. This is just a heads up to continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

We'll be in the weather center through the week and the holiday weekend with the latest information. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for updates.

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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Dreaming of a White Christmas in 2010?

2010-12-21T08:36:00.004-05:00

A white Christmas in our part of North Carolina is very rare. In any given year, the chance to see a white Christmas is less than 5%. It has happened in the past though. Just ask folks that were around southeastern North Carolina in 1989. A snow storm produced up to 20" of snow near the southeast coast from December 22 through December 24, 1989. About 4" fell around Fayetteville, but only a trace of snow was reported in the Triangle. While the Triangle did not see a white Christmas that year, most of that snow was still on the ground Christmas morning from Fayetteville to the coast. Looking back at the records for the Raleigh-Durham Airport, the only white Christmas on record was in 1966 when there was 1 inch of snow on the ground. Generally, a white Christmas is defined as having at least one inch of snow on the ground Christmas Day. Snow has only fallen at RDU on Christmas Day once since records have been kept. That was in 1947 when only 0.4" of snow was reported. Records have been kept at RDU since 1944.

As we approach Christmas Day 2010, the prospects of a white Christmas in North Carolina are higher than most years. Honestly though, the forecast for Christmas Day is still very uncertain.

Low pressure will track across the southeast Christmas Eve and possibly track up the east coast Christmas Day or night. The exact track of that low pressure will determine what type of precipitation we see. At this point, all scenarios are on the table. One model takes the low on a more northerly track keeping most of central and eastern North Carolina with a chilly rain Christmas Day with light snow possible as the precipitation comes to an end Christmas evening. Other models suggest a more potent storm system with a more southerly track. This would lead to mainly snow across most of the state except at the coast where mainly rain would fall. However, under that scenario the precipitation could change to snow at the coast before ending.

Those are the two extremes we are watching this morning. The actual weather conditions Christmas Day will likely end up somewhere between those two extremes. Forecasting winter weather in our part of North Carolina is very tricky. Making a definite call on the Christmas forecast at this point would be pretty much like throwing darts at a dartboard. It is just too early to make a call on who sees rain, who sees snow, and how much.

We'll gain certainty with the forecast over the next couple of days. Computer models by Thursday should have a much better handle on this potential storm. While many folks may be dreaming of a white Christmas, this is just a heads up that if the more southerly low track occurs, there will be major travel headaches up and down the east coast.

We'll keep you posted with Weather on the Ones updates through the week on News 14 Carolina. Stay tuned...

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Light Snow and a Wintry Mix for Thursday

2010-12-15T09:08:00.012-05:00

Light snow will spread across parts of North Carolina by daybreak Thursday morning. The precipitation will be light, but with a very cold ground, any frozen precipitation that falls will stick to the ground and pavement surfaces. Here are some thoughts about the forecast for Thursday morning broken down by region...

Triangle
-Light snow begins around daybreak and the morning rush hour.
-A dusting to 1" of accumulation possible with slightly higher accumulation possible north of Raleigh near the Virginia border.
-The light snow will mix with and change to sleet and freezing rain through the morning. That will create a light glazing on top of any accumulated snow.
-The wintry mix should change to just a chilly light rain around midday or early afternoon.
-Slick spots possible on area roadways from the morning commute through the lunch hour.

Sandhills
-Light snow begins around daybreak, give or take a couple hours.
-A dusting of snow possible.
-The light snow will mix with and change to light sleet and freezing rain in the morning creating a glazing on top of the dusting of snow.
-Any wintry precipitation should change to just a chilly light rain by late morning.
-Slick spots possible on area roadways through the morning commute.

Coastal areas
-Light precipitation will arrive at the coast around daybreak to a couple hours after sunrise.
-Some locations just inland from the coast may see a brief period of snow mixed with rain before a quick change over to chilly light rain.
-A chilly light rain or drizzle will fall for most of the day after that brief period of a mix in some inland areas.

As with any winter weather event in North Carolina, forecasting the exact location and the exact amount of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is very tricky. Be sure to check in with News 14 Carolina Thursday morning for the latest weather and traffic conditions.

We also continue to monitor the forecast for the weekend. Another area of low pressure will develop near the Gulf coast late Friday and track toward the Carolinas. That will spread rain across the state for the daytime hours Saturday. There is still a lot of uncertainty for Saturday night. Computer forecast models are still not consistent with various scenarios that could play out. There is the possibility that Saturday's rain will change to snow in parts of North Carolina. It is much too early to make any calls on what locations will see that snow and how much will be possible. We should have a better idea on this system by Friday. Stay tuned...

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Wintry Mix for Thursday?

2010-12-14T09:30:00.002-05:00

Dry weather is in the forecast through Wednesday, but that still looks to change by Thursday morning. Weak low pressure will track toward the Carolinas late Wednesday spreading light precipitation across North Carolina by early Thursday morning. Temperatures should be cold enough for that to start as a light wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Somewhat warmer air will work its way across the region during the day changing the wintry mix to rain. The changeover should happen fairly quickly for coastal areas after a brief period of snow or sleet. The changeover will take longer in other areas. Locations from Raleigh to the north, may not see the change over until afternoon.

Winter weather is always tricky in our part of North Carolina and this system is no different. We'll continue to monitor the latest weather data and will fine tune the forecast as Thursday approaches. At this point, while the precipitation should be light, the Thursday morning commute could be slippery for the Triangle and Sandhills. We'll keep you posted.

Thursday's chance for a wintry mix may not be the only system we have to watch over the next seven days. Keep an eye on the weekend forecast...

Lee Ringer
News 14 Meteorologist
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Cold Weather is Here! Any Winter Precip to go with the Cold?

2010-12-13T09:50:00.005-05:00

Crank up the heat! Another cold blast has arrived in the Carolinas keeping afternoon highs in the 30s in most of our area through the first half of the week. Windy conditions will keep wind chills in the 20s this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Wind chills could dip to between 1 and 5 degrees by early Tuesday morning!

Some spots in the Triangle and Sandhills reported light snow late Sunday night into early Monday morning leaving a coating of snow on some car windshields. Otherwise, look for dry conditions through the first half of the week. If you want to see snow, check out the mountains. 4-8" of snow is possible in elevations about 3000 feet today. At 9 am this morning, Boone was reporting snow with wind gusts up to 40mph. The wind chill was -10!

Things could get interesting here by early Thursday morning. We'll track a storm system across the southeast that could bring light precipitation to North Carolina before daybreak Thursday morning. Temperatures should be cold enough at that point for the precipitation to fall as a wintry mix before changing to rain at some point. The amount of precipitation and the time of that changeover is very uncertain now. That could make the difference between mostly a cold rain or an icy mix leading to travel headaches.

As we review the latest weather data over the next couple of days, we'll gain some certainty on Thursday's forecast.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Another Arctic Blast

2010-12-10T10:22:00.004-05:00

Another Arctic blast is on the way for early next week. Temperatures will be just as cold if not somewhat colder than early this week. Most of our area only had highs in the 30s through the first half of this week. Record low maximum temperatures were set a couple days, and more records could be in jeopardy next week. This cold blast will be ushered in by a cold front moving across North Carolina Sunday.

Rain will be possible ahead of the front, but it appears any precipitation will be gone by the time the cold air arrives. Winter precipitation is not forecast in our area at this time. However, snow is expected in the North Carolina mountains Sunday and may continue Monday. Strong winds will create near blizzard conditions by Monday morning in the high elevations of the mountains!

Windy conditions are expected in our part of North Carolina as well for Monday through Tuesday. Single digit wind chills are possible here Monday night and Tuesday morning.

After this very cold start to December, it is interesting to note that the long range forecast for January through March still calls for above average temperatures across much of the south. Even though we've had such a cold December, it is possible we may end up with a mild winter. More on that to come...

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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Severe Weather Risk: Late Tuesday - Early Wednesday

2010-11-30T12:48:00.005-05:00

There is growing concern today for the threat for severe weather late tonight into early Wednesday morning. A potent storm system will track across the Carolinas tonight increasing the severe weather threat for central and eastern North Carolina between 10pm Tuesday night and 8am Wednesday morning. This is the same storm system that has already produced tornadoes in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

One of the big concerns with this severe weather threat is the timing. Many people will be asleep and may not hear warnings. Storms could be moving quickly, and there may be little time to act. We mention it time and time again, but it will be very important for everyone in central and eastern North Carolina to have a NOAA Weather Radio tonight. These special radios will sound an alarm when a severe weather warning is issued. Models with SAME technology can be programmed to only alert you when warnings are issued for where you live.

The greatest risk from storms overnight may come from damaging straight line winds. A thunderstorm does not have to produce a tornado to cause wind damage. Straight line winds can cause extensive damage similar to tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center says there is a 30% probability for damaging winds in the area --

The tornado probability is given at 10% --

10% may not sound like a lot, but keep in mind that is a much higher chance than what is expected out of most November storm systems. A few tornadoes will be possible overnight.

While it does not happen that often, North Carolina does have a history of strong overnight tornadoes in November. We cited a few examples in yesterday's blog post. Many longtime Raleigh residents will remember the November 1988 tornado. That tornado reached F4 intensity and stayed on the ground for 84 miles.

We expect the overnight storm threat to be ending by 6am in the Triangle and Sandhills and by 8-9am in coastal North Carolina.

Our team of meteorologists will continue to follow the latest weather information coming into the forecast center. We'll have around the clock coverage of tonight's storm threat. Stay tuned for Weather on the Ones updates on News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Strong Storms Possible Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning

2010-11-29T08:58:00.003-05:00

Central and eastern North Carolina could be in for a round of stormy weather late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A warm front will lift through the state Tuesday bringing a much warmer day with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in the region. We don't expect much in the way of rain during the day Tuesday except for a few spotty light showers. That will change Tuesday night as a cold front moves across the state meeting up with warm, humid air.
Locally heavy rain along with strong storms will be possible just ahead of the front. The biggest threat from any strong storms will be damaging winds, but at this point, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The severe weather danger will be higher since this chance for storms will come overnight when many people will be sleeping. Unfortunately, North Carolina does not have a good history with overnight severe weather. The state leads the country in the number of fatalities from nocturnal tornadoes.

There are several examples of overnight tornadoes in November:

While this is just a slight risk for severe weather at this point, it is a good time to make sure you have a working NOAA Weather radio with fresh batteries. Weather radios will sound an alarm alerting you to severe weather warnings in your area.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for updates.

Turning Colder after Thanksgiving?

2010-11-18T09:28:00.004-05:00

The latest 7-day outlook shows a nice warm up just before Thanksgiving with highs reaching the 70s in parts of central and eastern North Carolina. Big changes could be on the way just after Thanksgiving though. Models have been showing some consistency in forecasting colder air moving into the eastern U.S. from just after Thanksgiving through early December. The Climate Prediction Center is also predicting colder than normal temperatures for the eastern U.S. in the latest 8 to 14 day outlook --Time will tell just how much cold our temperatures will drop during that time period. December through February is forecast to be warmer than average, but there can always be a few cold snaps in a winter that is colder than normal. Looks like we'll be reminded of that heading into December.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

What is the Difference Between a Frost and a Freeze?

2010-11-05T09:37:00.002-04:00

Last weekend we had advisories for the possibility of frost, especially for low-lying and rural areas outside of Raleigh, Wilmington and Morehead City. This weekend we face our first freeze of the season.

What is the difference between a frost and a freeze? Frost occurs on a clear, still night, as heat radiates from surfaces (like your car window, a field, etc.) to the sky. The temperature drops below 32 degrees and water vapor freezes on those surfaces (a process called sublimation..or gas being converted to a solid while bypassing the liquid stage). The temperature won't go much below freezing, because energy is released as the water freezes.

Most plants that aren't tropical can handle temperatures a few degrees below freezing with no problem, and if you have plants up against a house (even tender plants) they can usually be spared as heat will be trapped by any overhang.

Clouds or fog will trap heat, usually preventing a frost.

A freeze, however, is caused by cold, Arctic air moving into a region. It is a relatively dry air mass that is much colder than freezing, and you can have moving wind in cases of a freeze.

Much of the damage we see on plants from a freeze is called desiccation -- severe drying of the foliage.

Due to the fact that this involves a chance of air mass, there is less protection for plants by ways of cover or overhangs, so they need to be brought in if at all possible.

Usually a hard freeze marks the end of a growing season. In central North Carolina, we typically see our first freeze of the autumn season anytime from mid-October for the extreme north/northwest Triangle region to after November 1st for the southern Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

National Weather Service confirms 5 tornadoes from mid-week outbreak

2010-10-29T11:53:00.002-04:00

The following is from the National Weather Service, Raleigh, NC:

NWS Surveys Damage from October 27, 2010, Tornadoes

The National Weather Service confirms that five tornadoes touched down in north central North Carolina
on Wednesday, October 27, 2010. Two supercell thunderstorms produced 5 tornadoes across Person,
Orange, Granville and Vance counties during the afternoon and evening.
(A link to the full report which includes tornado tracks and photos is included here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/20101027.five.tornadoes.north.central.NC.hires.pdf )

For reference, the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories:
EF0...wind speeds 65 to 85 mph.
EF1...wind speeds 86 to 110 mph.
EF2...wind speeds 111 to 135 mph.
EF3...wind speeds 136 to 165 mph.
EF4...wind speeds 166 to 200 mph.
EF5...wind speeds greater than 200 mph.

Note: the information in this document is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s)
and publication in NWS Storm Data.

...EF‐0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR ROXBORO LAKE IN WESTERN PERSON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA...
LOCATION...ROXBORO LAKE IN WESTERN PERSON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...10/27/2010
ESTIMATED TIME... 358 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF‐SCALE RATING... EF‐0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED... 75 TO 80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH... 50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH... 200 YARDS
BEGINNING LAT/LON... 36.37N / 79.15W
ENDING LAT/LON... 36.37N / 79.14W
* FATALITIES...NONE
* INJURIES...NONE
...SUMMARY...
The National Weather Service in Raleigh NC has confirmed a tornado near Roxboro Lake in western Person County North
Carolina on 10/27/2010.
Numerous trees were snapped off and uprooted in a small area along Gordonton Road south of U.S. Highway 158 near
Roxboro Lake.

...EF‐1 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR ROXBORO IN PERSON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA...
LOCATION...ROXBORO IN PERSON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...10/27/2010
ESTIMATED TIME... 413 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF‐SCALE RATING... EF‐1 ESTIMATED
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED... 86 TO 90 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH... 50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH... 0.5 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...36.39N / 78.95W
ENDING LAT/LON...36.39N / 78.94W
* FATALITIES...NONE
* INJURIES...NONE
...SUMMARY...
The National Weather Service in Raleigh NC has confirmed a tornado near Roxboro in person county North Carolina on
10/27/2010.
A supercell thunderstorm produced a short lived EF‐1 tornado which produced significant damage to a double wide modular
home along apple tree lane near Allensville road. The modular home was shifted up to 40 feet off of its foundation and
sustained significant structural damage...with 50 percent of the roof destroyed. One individual was inside of the modular home
at the time of the tornado and was not injured. Nearby modular homes sustained minor damage to the roof and siding.
Numerous trees were either snapped off or uprooted at this location. Winds were estimated to be between 86 to 90 mph.
The tornado tracked eastward and across a wooded area before crossing Ruff Davis road... Where several trees were snapped
off and downed in different directions. The tornado lifted as it moved into another wooded area east of Ruff Davis road.

...EF‐1 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR CARR IN ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA...
LOCATION...CARR IN ORANGE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...10/27/2010
ESTIMATED TIME...530 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF‐SCALE RATING...EF1
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...95 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...2.5 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...36.19 / 79.22W
ENDING LAT/LON...36.20 / 79.17W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0
...SUMMARY...
The National Weather Service in Raleigh NC has confirmed a tornado near Carr in Orange County North Carolina on
10/27/2010.
A supercell thunderstorm produced a series of tornadoes across portions of Orange... Granville... and Vance counties in central
North Carolina. The first of which produced EF‐1 damage with winds between 90 to 95 mph along Carr Store Road near Allie
Mae Road in northern Orange County. At this location a church sustained significant damage...with two walls made of cinder
blocks blown down. Numerous hard and soft wood trees were also snapped off and uprooted at this location.
The tornado continued to track east northeast and damaged two homes along Pentecost Road. Both homes sustained roof
damage...including a partially collapsed chimney. Two individuals were home at the time of the tornado and were not injured.
Numerous trees where snapped off and uprooted at this location as well. Winds were estimated to range from 86 to 90 mph.
The tornado weakened as it continued to track east north‐east across Mcdade Store Road and Efland‐Cedar Grove Road...
before lifting. Numerous trees were either damaged or downed during this area.

...EF‐0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR BEREA IN GRANVILLE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA...
LOCATION...JUST EAST OF BEREA IN GRANVILLE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...10/27/2010
ESTIMATED TIME...615 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF‐SCALE RATING...EF‐0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80‐85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...5.25 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...36.33N / 78.71W
ENDING LAT/LON...36.35N / 78.63N
* FATALITIES...NONE
* INJURIES...NONE
...SUMMARY...
The National Weather Service in Raleigh NC has confirmed an ef‐0 tornado just east of Berea in Granville County North
Carolina on 10/27/2010.
A supercell thunderstorm moving northeast across orange and person counties had already produced a tornado near Cedar
Grove in northern Orange County. This same storm produced a second tornado which touched down just east of Berea in
Granville County. This EF‐0 tornado tracked over 5 miles with a path width near 100 yards and winds of 80 to 85 mph. The
touched down north of Highway 158 near the intersection of Bob Daniel Road and Hebron Road. Numerous trees were
uprooted and shingles were blown off houses. The tornado continued moving east‐northeast partially removing the
roof from a house on Hebron Road and destroying 2 sheds at 1657 Elam Currin Road. A neighbor on Elam Currin Road stated
he heard the warning on NOAA Weather Radio before the tornado struck and took cover with his wife in an interior hallway.
The tornado then crossed Pine Town Road where more minor damage to tin roofing and shingles was noted before crossing
Graham‐Hobgood Road. Numerous outbuildings were severely damaged along Joe Pruitt Road near its intersection with
Graham‐Hobgood Road. At least 2 outbuildings were destroyed and as many as 4 others suffered substantial damage. A single
wide mobile home was shifted about 2 feet...however...the tie downs and anchors held which kept the trailer from overturning.
Winds in this area were rated around 80 to 85 mph based on the noted damage. The tornado then turned a little more to the
northeast... crossing Bodie Currin Road causing minor roof damage to a residence at 2543 Bodie Currin Road. Numerous trees
were blown down in this area and other homes suffered shingle and siding damage. The tornado then crossed Highway 96
lifting off the ground near the intersection of Cornwall Road and Sterl Carrington Road.

...EF‐0 TORNADO CONFIRMED JUST WEST OF MIDDLEBURG IN VANCE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA...
LOCATION...JUST WEST OF MIDDLEBURG IN VANCE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...10/27/2010
ESTIMATED TIME...650 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF SCALE RATING...EF‐0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...75‐80 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...2.75 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...36.38N / 78.38W
ENDING LAT/LON...36.39N / 78.33W
* FATALITIES...NONE
* INJURIES...NONE
...SUMMARY...
The National Weather Service in Raleigh NC has confirmed an EF‐0 tornado just west of Middleburg in Vance County North
Carolina on 10/27/2010.
A supercell thunderstorm moving northeast across Orange...Person and Granville counties had already produced a tornado
near Cedar Grove in Orange County and a second tornado near Berea in Granville county. The same storm produced a third
tornado north of Henderson and just west of Middleburg. This EF‐0 tornado...which was the weakest of the three...tracked near
3 miles with a path width of 50 yards and winds of 75 to 80 mph.
The tornado initially touched down on Coopers Grove Road blowing limbs out of trees and causing minor damage to a couple
of sheds and outbuildings. The tornado tracked east‐northeast crossing Satterwhite Point Road blowing down and snapping
numerous trees. Some minor damage to 2 homes occurred along with some damage to an above ground pool. The tornado
then crossed Mabry Mill Road causing extensive damage to trees which blocked Mabry Mill Road damaging the guardrails. As
the tornado continued east it crossed Interstate 85 and caused some minor awning and roof damage to the Snackers BP gas
station at exit 220. The tornado then lifted off the ground after striking the gas station.

Goodbye Summer Heat!

2010-10-06T08:36:00.004-04:00

The cool crisp mornings of fall have finally arrived this week! It appears we can finally say goodbye to the summer heat that lasted through much of September. Highs can still reach the 90s in North Carolina in October. However, looking at at forecast for the next week, it is very unlikely that we will see the 90s again this year!

Parts of our state including Raleigh-Durham broke records with the summer heat this year. RDU had the most number of 90 degree or higher days in a year with 91 days of highs 90+.

Here's a look at what is likely the final total of 90 degree and higher days in 2010 from across NC:

Lumberton: 101
Fayetteville: 100
Raleigh-Durham: 91
Rocky Mount-Wilson: 91
Charlotte: 87
Chapel Hill: 75
New Bern: 71
Wilmington: 68
Greensboro: 67
Hickory: 59
Asheville: 19
Boone: 4
Cape Hatteras: 1

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Rainfall from Sunday, September 26 - Thursday, Septmber 30, 2010

2010-10-01T10:34:00.004-04:00

Rainfall totals since Sunday, September 26 from around eastern North Carolina. (updated Monday, October 4).

Wilmington Airport: 22.54"
Swansboro: 21.65"
Ogden: 20.62"
Surf City: 20.55"
Cedar Point: 19.34"
Jacksonville: 17.75"
Havelock: 17.42"
Greenville: 16.41"
Cherry Point: 15.01"
New Bern: 14.93"
Newport: 14.54"
Morehead City: 13.59"
Harkers Island: 13.26"
Goldsboro: 12.61"
Beaufort: 12.41"
Wilson: 11.44"
Rocky Mount-Wilson: 10.08"
Red Springs: 9.90"
Elizabethtown: 9.00"
Fort Bragg: 8.85"
Fayetteville: 8.60"
Laurinburg: 8.59"
Lumberton: 7.79"
Clayton: 7.53"
Chapel Hill: 7.35"
Raeford: 7.24"
Louisburg: 7.15"
Hillsborough: 6.74"
Raleigh-Durham: 6.53"
Jordan Lake Dam: 6.39"
Durham: 6.12"
Henderson: 6.05"

Check out flooding pictures from our viewers posted on our Facebook page at www.facebook.com/WeatherontheOnes. E-mail your rainfall reports and weather pictures to weather@news14.com.

Heavy Rain Threat Continues Through Midweek

2010-09-28T09:28:00.002-04:00

Heavy rains have already fallen over parts of eastern North Carolina since Sunday, and more is on the way from Wednesday into Thursday. Flooding will be a concern through at least midweek. Rainfall totals have reached just over 12" in Wilmington since Sunday. Over 10" of that came Monday making for the second highest daily rainfall on record in Wilmington. The highest ever one day rainfall in Wilmington was over 13" during Hurricane Floyd on September 15, 1999. Elsewhere, rain totals since Sunday have reached almost 6" in Fayetteville and 3" in Raleigh. Additional heavy rainfall on top of those totals will cause flooding problems.

Waves of low pressure will move along a stalled frontal boundary near the coast beginning Wednesday. That will spread rain across the eastern half of the state during the day with some of the heaviest rain coming Wednesday afternoon and night. The heavy rain will not only fall along the coast but also across the Triangle and Sandhills. An additional 5" of rain is possible across much of the area through early Thursday, but some locations could see much more than that.

A possible tropical system developing just south of Cuba this morning could add to the heavy rain threat through Thursday and into early Friday. Wednesday and Wednesday night's rain will not be related to this tropical system. This would only serve to add more rain Thursday. Most computer models bring this storm near south Florida Wednesday and then either off the southeast coast or up the Carolina coast Thursday into early Friday morning.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for the latest on the flooding threat through the week.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Changes Could Be on the Way....

2010-09-22T09:08:00.002-04:00

It has been a hot and dry September across North Carolina, and this hot and dry pattern will not let up for the rest of the week. Near record highs are expected around the Triangle through Saturday, but a cold front that will move through this weekend signaling what could be big changes in our weather next week.

Not only are cooler temperatures in the forecast for next week, but some of the best rain chances we have seen in quite a while are expected. Rain would be very welcome, as we are currently on track for one of the driest Septembers on record. At the Raleigh-Durham Airport, only 0.13" of rain has been measured this month and Wilmington has only recorded 0.18". That puts Wilmington more than 15" behind in rainfall for the year.

There is still some disagreement among extended weather models on exactly what days next week we will see rain. Beginning Sunday, we should have a chance for rain through at least the middle of next week. While some of those days may feature little to no rain, other days could feature thunderstorms and heavy rain. Forecast details on the timing of the best chances for rain next week should be ironed out over the next few days.

Looking ahead to late next week, our attention may have to turn to the tropics. This morning we're already watching a tropical wave in the southeastern Caribbean that could eventually become a player in weather across the southeastern United States.

Most computer models seen in the above image from Colorado State University keep this tropical wave in the Caribbean the next several days bringing it near Central America and then Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by early next week. During that time, it appears the tropical wave will develop into at least a tropical storm. If that happens, it would be named Matthew.

Since this storm has not even developed yet, there is a lot of uncertainty on exactly where it may go. It is worth noting that the GFS model has been consistent in bringing this storm into the Gulf of Mexico sometime toward the end of next week. One run of the model this morning even brings the storm off the Carolina coast the following weekend (first few days of October).

A lot could change with this possible tropical system over the coming days though. Stay tuned for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour for the latest.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hot and Dry September So Far...

2010-09-15T09:02:00.010-04:00

As I write this post, the Triangle is about to tie the record for the most number of days in a year with highs of 90 or higher and rainfall deficits are climbing across the state. Wilmington's deficit stands at over 13.5" for the year. Raleigh-Durham's deficit is now over 7".

The hot and dry pattern does not appear to be letting up with no signs of rain for at least the next 7 days. The driest September on record for Raleigh-Durham was September 1985 when only 0.23" of rain fell. So far this month, only 0.13" of rain has fallen at RDU. Of course, we still have half of September to catch up on rainfall. However, the outlook beyond 7 days is still dry. The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for below normal rainfall across the Carolinas.

Soaking rains from a tropical system could be the only hope to break out of our dry pattern anytime soon. While the tropics are active, any tropical systems through this week and into early next week will stay far away from North Carolina.

Our weather pattern could change toward the end of September, but for now the hot and dry weather continues...

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hurricane Earl -- Thursday morning update

2010-09-02T10:01:00.004-04:00

Hurricane Earl remains a powerful hurricane just off the Carolina coast this morning. There has not been much change in the forecast track for the storm over the last 24 to 36 hours. The storm should be tracking to the north just brushing past the North Carolina coast tonight. The eye of the storm may get very close to Cape Hatteras between midnight and 3am.

Even though the center of the storm may stay just off shore, Earl remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm's center. Tropical storm force winds extend 230 miles from the storm's center. Much of the North Carolina coast will at least experience those tropical storm force winds with hurricane force winds possible from the Crystal Coast through the Outer Banks.

The Outer Banks will experience the worst of the storm late tonight through the early morning hours. The intense winds will create high surf that will likely wash over parts of Highway 12. Street flooding can be expected along with wind damage and power outages.

Crystal Coast residents should be making their final preparations for the possibility for hurricane force wind gusts tonight. The winds will be picking up through the afternoon as rain bands begin to move inland. Winds may gust to 75mph or slightly higher tonight.

Along the Cape Fear coast and inland toward Wilmington and Jacksonville, winds will not be as strong but are still expected to reach tropical storm force strength. Gusts up to 60mph cannot be ruled out.

Central North Carolina including the Triangle, Sandhills, Triad, and Charlotte area are not expected to be impacted by the storm.

If you have any questions about Earl, Weather on the Ones meteorologists are answering your questions as time allows on our Facebook page at www.facebook.com/WeatherontheOnes

Stay tuned for the very latest on Hurricane Earl every 10 minutes on News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hurricane Earl Update -- Wednesday Morning

2010-09-01T10:33:00.004-04:00

Hurricane Earl remains a very powerful hurricane today moving to the northwest. A direct path to the northwest would bring the storm directly over North Carolina by Thursday night. Fortunately, most all computer models indicate the storm will turn more to the north and north-northeast at the last minute just skirting the coast. The eye may remain just offshore possibly crossing near Cape Hatteras into the early morning hours Friday. The storm is so large though, that much of the coast, especially the Outer Banks, will be battered by the storm.

Along the Outer Banks, we expect hurricane force wind gusts (75mph+) by Thursday night through early Friday morning along with heavy rain bands. High surf could cause Highway 12 in parts of the Outer Banks to be washed over.

Just south of the Outer Banks along the Crystal Coast (Morehead City-Atlantic Beach-Emerald Isle), there's a slight chance for a brief hurricane force wind gust, but tropical storm force winds (40mph-74mph) are expected along with locally heavy rain.

Along the Cape Fear coast, occasional tropical storm force wind gusts are possible along with some rain.

Inland areas across central North Carolina should not be impacted by Earl based on its latest forecast track.

We'll have to watch very closely for the northerly turn tomorrow. There is still a possibility that that turn could take longer to occur. In that case, there could still be a dramatic change in the forecast.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for the latest updates.

Hurricane Earl -- Tuesday Morning Update

2010-08-31T10:20:00.002-04:00

Hurricane Earl is maintaining its strength as a major storm in the Atlantic this morning as it moves west-northwest of Puerto Rico. Powerful storms like Earl often see some small fluctuations in strength, and that is what we expect to see over the coming days with this hurricane.

Earl will remain a very powerful storm as it closes in on the east coast of the United States. Fortunately, most computer models and our latest forecast continue to keep the storm just off the Carolina coastline with its closest approach coming late Thursday night and early Friday morning.

This track would keep Earl's strongest winds and heaviest rains over the Atlantic Ocean. We must monitor the storms track closely over the next couple of days, as it is still possible it may track just west of the current forecast. If a westerly track occurs, the impact of Earl on our coast could be significant.

At this point the most likely scenario is for the storm to just stay off the coast with the Outer Banks feeling the biggest effects from Earl. By late Thursday night and early Friday, tropical storm force winds and locally heavy rain from the outer bands of the storm should move across the Outer Banks. Beach erosion and some wash over of Highway 12 is possible.

The Crystal Coast area (around Morehead City, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle) may also see some of the outer rain bands with tropical storm force wind gusts. Down the coast in the Cape Fear region (Wrightsville Beach, Carolina Beach, Oak Island, Holden Beach, Ocean Isle), the effects of Earl should be minimal. Lighter rain may move through some of the immediate coast in this region with occasional wind gusts to 30 or 35mph.

On this track, inland area across North Carolina including the Triangle and Sandhills may not see a drop of rain with only clouds and a light breeze Thursday night.

Again, it is very important to note conditions could change dramatically if the storm moves just a little to the west. The forecast is still subject to change. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates through the week.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hurricane Earl -- Monday Morning Update

2010-08-30T10:00:00.003-04:00

Huricane Earl continues to gain strength this morning. As of 1am, the storm has strengthened into a category 3 hurricane. This morning Earl has been pounding the northern Leeward Islands and is moving to the west-northwest. A northwest turn is expected over the next couple of the days as the storm continues to strengthen. Earl could become a category 4 storm by midweek. Most computer models bring the storm very close to the North Carolina coast late Thursday into early Friday. Based on the latest forecast, we would expect the center of Earl to remain offshore, but the outer bands of the storm could impact part of our coastline especially the Outer Banks.

It is important to note the average error in a hurricane track forecast four days away is 200-300 miles. If Earl were to track 200-300 miles west of the current forecast, the storm would have a much greater impact on North Carolina. Earl should still be watched very closely. Coastal residents should begin to make a plan in the event the storm tracks west of the current forecast path.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest on the tropics at :21 and :51 after the hour.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Friday Morning Tropical Update

2010-08-27T09:32:00.003-04:00

The weather across North Carolina may be beautiful this weekend, but the Weather on the Ones team will be busy tracking the tropics!

Satellite images this morning show a very healthy Hurricane Danielle with a well defined eye. That's the sign of a very strong hurricane, and indeed, Danielle strengthened into a category 4 hurricane early this morning. Fortunately, the storm is still on track to turn out to sea and will not be a threat to land.Even though Danielle will be far off the North Carolina coast, swells from the storm will create dangerous rip currents at our beaches. Lifeguards will be very busy this weekend. The weather will be great at the beach this weekend, but if you're enjoying the nice beach weather, it will be best to stay out of the water.

Danielle is not the only storm to watch in the coming days. Earl remains a tropical storm but will likely become a hurricane over the weekend.
Earl will continue to move to the west for the next few days and is then forecast to take a more northwesterly turn early next week. While Earl may come closer to the Carolina coast than Danielle, most models still keep the storm offshore next week. However, I would caution that it is still too early to say with a lot of certainty that Earl will turn out to sea. Earl is still a storm to watch very closely.

Danielle and Earl may not be the only storms to track this weekend. A tropical wave off the coast of Africa remains disorganized this morning, but conditions are favorable for this disturbance to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Fiona.

Tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour for the latest.

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Tracking Danielle and Earl

2010-08-26T08:42:00.003-04:00

There are two storms to watch in the Atlantic today -- Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl. As of early this morning Danielle was a category 2 hurricane and is forecast to become a category 3 storm in the coming days. Fortunately, we are confident Danielle will take a more northerly turn this weekend taking the hurricane away from the U.S. coast and just east of Bermuda.
Even though Danielle will pass far off the Carolina coastline this weekend, the storm will still create dangerous rip currents at the North Carolina beaches. Earlier this season, the coast experienced dangerous rip currents when Colin passed off shore. One person drowned that weekend off of Ocracoke. This weekend's rip currents could be even more dangerous than when Colin passed offshore. These dangerous rip currents could begin as early as Saturday and continue into early next week. Beach-goers should avoid the water this weekend.

Behind Danielle, our attention will turn to Earl which is a fairly weak tropical storm for now. However, as Earl tracks over the warm Atlantic waters it is expected to become a hurricane this weekend. Several long range models eventually turn Earl out to sea next week. With the storm so far out and with that turn not forecast until 5 days or more from now, we cannot say with a lot of certainty that that turn will occur. We'll continue to watch the storm and keep you updated.

Danielle and Earl may not be the only two systems to watch over the coming days. It appears the area off the African coast will remain a breeding ground for tropical systems. This morning's satellite picture posted below shows another wave moving off the African coast this morning...

Stay tuned for News 14 Carolina's tropical updates at :21 after the hour for the very latest!

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina meteorologist

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Thinking About Winter Already?

2010-08-12T08:39:00.004-04:00

The heat of Summer 2010 has a lot of folks looking forward to winter weather! This past winter was much colder and wetter than the average winter in North Carolina, but that most likely will not be the case this coming winter.

Here's a look at the long range outlook for January to March 2011 from the Climate Prediction Center. You'll notice warmer than normal temperatures are forecast along with below normal precipitation for North Carolina...

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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Tuesday Morning Tropical Update

2010-08-10T09:06:00.002-04:00

There are a couple of areas to watch in the tropics today. The first, seen in the above satellite image from this morning, is an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico off the southwestern Florida coast. Conditions should be favorable over the next day or two for that low to become a tropical depression or tropical storm. Several computer models develop the low into a tropical storm this week and bring it inland around the central Gulf coast. See the image below (courtesy of Colorado State University) for some of those model tracks.

The other area to watch is the disturbance outlined as disturbance #1 in the above graphic from the National Hurricane Center. This could also become a tropical depression over the next couple of days, but even if that happens, it should stay out to sea.

Be sure to catch our tropical updates at :21 after the hour for the very latest on both of these systems.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Update on Colin and the Tropics

2010-08-06T08:43:00.003-04:00

Colin did reform as a tropical storm Thursday afternoon but the storm does not look very impressive on satellite. It is a relatively weak tropical storm as of this posting but is forecast to strengthen into the weekend. Fortunately, it has begun its northerly turn that will keep the storm away from North Carolina and the East Coast.

Keep an eye on the disturbance behind Colin in the Atlantic closer to the coast of Africa. That has the potential to slowly develop into the next tropical system over the next few days....

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

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Is Colin Coming Back to Life?

2010-08-05T08:38:00.003-04:00

The remnants of Tropical Storm Colin look pretty healthy on satellite this morning. While the system does not have a center of circulation at this time, it still likely to be producing tropical storm force winds.

The National Hurricane Center give the tropical wave a 50% chance to develop that center of circulation and become Tropical Storm Colin again. That could happen later today or tomorrow.

Even if Colin redevelops, it should track away from the North Carolina coast. A look at some of the tropical model tracks posted below (courtesy of Colorado State University) shows Colin tracking closer to Bermuda this weekend and away from the East Coast. The only potential impact on North Carolina will be an increased risk for rip currents this weekend at the beaches.

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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Well, That Didn't Last Long...

2010-08-04T08:17:00.003-04:00

Tropical Storm Colin was a short lived system. By Tuesday afternoon, the storm was moving too quickly and encountering too much wind shear to hold together. The system is no longer an organized tropical storm, although the above satellite image above from this morning still shows showers and storms associated with its remnants.

Colin's remnants will continue to encounter a good bit of shear today and tomorrow, so the National Hurricane Center only gives it a 20% chance of redeveloping into a tropical depression or storm over the next couple of days. However, it may have a window of opportunity to redevelop into the weekend.

Whether or not Colin redevelops, it appears what remains of the system should stay off shore. A look at an image of model forecast tracks (courtesy of Colorado State University) shows most tracks take the storm between the east coast and Bermuda over the next 3 to 5 days.
Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
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Tracking Colin

2010-08-03T08:28:00.002-04:00

Tropical Depression #4 strengthened into Tropical Storm Colin at 5am Tuesday morning with sustained winds around 40mph. The storm is moving to the west-northwest for now and should continue to strengthen over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Later in the week Colin should encounter wind shear that should limit the strengthening and may even cause the storm to weaken. The official forecast from the National Hurricane keeps Colin as a tropical storm through the rest of the week.

By the weekend, Colin is expected to take a more northwesterly turn which would take Colin somewhere between Bermuda and the east coast late in the weekend or early next week.

Keep in mind there is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast beyond the next couple of days. We'll keep you posted on how the forecast may change over the coming days. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour.

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hot Summer Continues

2010-07-08T07:11:00.007-04:00

Wednesday, July 7 brought some of the hottest temperatures so far this summer in parts of North Carolina when many cities hit highs near 100 or even higher. Here's a look back at highs for selected locations around the state:

Goldsboro: 104
Fayetteville: 103
Rocky Mount-Wilson: 103
Chapel Hill: 102
Lumberton: 102
Raleigh-Durham: 102 (new record for the date)
Southern Pines: 102
Louisburg: 101
Concord: 100
Elizabethtown: 100
Jacksonville: 100
Kenansville: 100
Charlotte: 99
Greensboro: 99
Mount Airy: 99
Oxford-Henderson: 99
Cherry Point: 98
Gastonia: 98
New Bern: 98
Wilmington: 98
Winston-Salem: 98
Asheboro: 97
Lexington: 97
Asheville: 92
Boone: 88

Hot Start to Summer

2010-06-22T08:28:00.002-04:00

That cold and wet winter seems like a distant memory now. Summer 2010 is off to a hot start in North Carolina. In fact, June 2010 is setting up to be one of the hottest Junes on record at least for Raleigh-Durham. Records have been kept at RDU since 1944.

According to information provided by the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh, the warmest June on record was June 2008 when the average temperature was 80.7. So far, the average temperature for June 2010 is 80.4.

With afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and morning lows in the 70s in the forecast at least into early next week, it looks like June 2010 will challenge June 2008 as the hottest June on record.

Tornado Alley in the Carolinas?

2010-04-28T08:21:00.005-04:00

When you think about tornado alley, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska probably come to mind. Based on a recent research study from the University of Akron, we may have to think again.

Image courtesy of Michael Frates, University of Akron

That research by Michael Frates, a graduate assistant, took a look at long track tornadoes (20 miles or longer) of EF3 strength or stronger.

Image courtesy of Michael Frates, University of Akron

His results show that an area classified as "Dixie Alley" including northern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama has just as many if not more strong, long track tornadoes compared to the region traditionally referred to as "Tornado Alley."

An area of eastern North Carolina classified as "Carolina Alley" follows closely behind "Tornado Alley" and "Dixie Alley." Take a look at the image below from the National Weather Service of all tornado tracks in the Carolinas since 1950.

You'll notice an area just south and east of Raleigh closely following the I-95 corridor that has more frequent long track tornadoes. In fact, there area few examples of devastating tornadoes in this area in recent memory. An outbreak of tornadoes less than two years ago in November 2008 included an EF3 tornado that caused destruction like this near Elm City, NC....

Photo courtesy of the National Weather Service - Raleigh.

Several other tornadoes were reported that same night including one in Kenly...

The infamous Carolinas Outbreak of 1984 also occurred in this same area. That was one of the most deadly tornado outbreaks in North Carolina history. Fifty seven people were killed in North and South Carolina. An estimated 800 were injured.

All of this just goes to remind us that deadly severe weather can and does happen here in North Carolina. While we enjoy nice spring weather, our weather isn't always this nice. It's best to be prepared and know what to do for the next time our weather takes a violent turn.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast

2010-04-27T09:28:00.004-04:00

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is just about a month away and most forecasts indicate this year will be more active than the last. Forecasters at North Carolina State University in Raleigh just released their forecast this week calling for an above normal season. That agrees with an earlier forecast from Colorado State University.

The NC State forecast led by tropical meteorology professor Dr. Lian Xie calls for 14 to 19 named storms to develop in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, or Caribbean with 7 to 11 of those becoming hurricanes. Forecasters have gone one step beyond just predicting the number of storms and are forecasting the chance a storm could make landfall along the coast. An 80 percent chance is given for a named storm (tropical storm or stronger) to make landfall somewhere from the east coast of Florida to North Carolina. There is a 70 percent chance that storm would be a hurricane. Along the Gulf coast, there is an 80 percent chance for a hurricane to make landfall.

Having studied tropical meteorology taught by Dr. Xie, I have great respect for his forecast. However, we must remember it is just that -- a forecast with uncertainty. It only takes one storm making landfall to cause excessive damage affecting many people. We must watch the tropics closely from June through November this and every hurricane season.

It has been some time since a major hurricane impacted the North Carolina coast. It is impossible to say whether or not that will change this year, but it is best to be ready just in case. In the coming weeks, News 14 Carolina and Carolina on Demand will air a series on how North Carolina residents can prepare for hurricane season. Then stay tuned for our tropical updates starting June 1 at :21 after the hour every hour through November.

Read more on the outlook for the 2010 hurricane season from NCSU forecasters at http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2010.html

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
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YouTube Videos of Zebulon Tornado -- April 25, 2010

2010-04-26T08:29:00.003-04:00

“Vital New Roadmap” Underscores Need to Study Climate Change, Human Health Links..from NOAA

2010-04-24T10:27:00.001-04:00

“Vital New Roadmap” Underscores Need to Study Climate Change, Human Health Links

Asthma, Cancer, Weather Disaster-Related Illnesses Cited Among Concerns

The vulnerability of people to the health effects of climate change is the focus of a report released today by an NIH-led federal interagency group that includes NOAA. The report, “A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change,” calls for coordinating federal research to better understand climate’s impact on human health and identifying how these impacts can be most effectively addressed. The report was published by Environmental Health Perspectives and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.

The report indicates what is known and the significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of the consequences of climate change on 11 major illness categories, including cancer, cardiovascular disease and stroke, asthma and other respiratory disorders, food-borne diseases and nutrition, weather and heat-related fatalities, and water and vector-borne infectious diseases.

“To mitigate and adapt to the health effects of climate change, we must first understand them. This report is a vital new roadmap for doing that,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “There is an urgent need to get started, and I am pleased that we can bring NOAA climate science and NOAA capabilities in linking ocean and human health and a range of other monitoring and prediction tools to the table.”

Health experts from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and NOAA contributed to the new report. Research recommendations include examining how diseases in marine mammals might be linked to human health; investigating how climate change might contaminate seafood, beaches and drinking water; and understanding the impact of atmospheric changes on heat waves and air-borne diseases. There are questions about the effects of increased rainfall and extreme weather events on sewage discharges and run-off and what this will mean to human health. Integrating human, terrestrial and aquatic animal health surveillance with environmental monitoring is recommended to better understand emerging health risks like Lyme disease, West Nile virus, malaria, and toxins from marine algae.

To address disaster planning and management, the report encourages research aimed at strengthening healthcare and emergency services, especially when events such as floods, drought and wildfires can affect human health both during and after an event. The report also identifies the need for more effective early warning systems providing, for example, an alert to those with cardiovascular disease on extreme heat days or when air pollution is high. Other issues include susceptible and displaced populations; public health and health care infrastructure; essential capacities and skills, particularly for modeling and prediction; the integration of climate observation networks with health impact and surveillance tools, and communication and education.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/noaa.lubchenco.

On the Web:

Additional recommendations and the full report are available at: http://www.niehs.nih.gov/climatereport

Melting Snow...

2010-04-14T09:26:00.001-04:00

Remember all that snow across the US this winter? Not much of it remains on the ground now especially on the east coast. This is the latest snow cover map across North America from Tuesday, April 13.

Getting ready to plant that garden? Check this first!

2010-04-01T15:46:00.004-04:00

We have a delightful weekend coming up across North Carolina! I've heard a number of friends already say that they plan on working in the garden. Before putting out those tender plants, you might want to check this zonal map of average last freeze dates across North Carolina.

Based on statistics, there is a 10% chance that a frost will occur outside of the dates listed. Whether or not a specific plant will be damaged depends on the type of plant, the maturity of the plant, the temperature, the duration, as well as many other variables.

The forecast for Easter weekend calls for well above normal temperatures and dry weather. There is a chance of rain late next week. Your latest Weather on the Ones forecast has the details to take you through the weekend or through next week on News 14 Carolina.

Looking Back at the Cold Winter

2010-03-10T08:36:00.002-05:00

Here are a few interesting facts from winter (December-February) provided by the National Weather Service Offices in Raleigh and Wilmington.

Raleigh-Durham

6th coldest winter on record for RDU. Records for RDU go back to 1944.
Coldest winter since 1978.
There were 9 days with snowfall. The average snowfall days for RDU during a winter is 3.

Wilmington

10th coldest winter on record in Wilmington. Records go back 136 years for Wilmington.
Low temperatures in January and February averaged below 32. That is only the 5th time that has happened.
There were 54 days between December 1 and February 28 when then temperature was 55 degrees or lower. 55 is the coldest average high temperature during winter for Wilmington.
There were 48 days when Wilmington had a low temperature below freezing. That is the 8th greatest number of below freezing lows on record. Wilmington's first freezing temperature this winter was on December 12, which was the 8th latest date for a first freeze!
3.8" of snow fell in Wilmington this winter on February 12-13. That is the most snow since January 25-26 when 5.0" of snow was recorded in Wilmington.

Snow Totals from March 2-3, 2010

2010-03-03T09:13:00.003-05:00

Dunn: 4.5"
Erwin: 4.0"
Mount Olive: 4.0"
Newton Grove: 4.0"
Rural Hall: 4.0"
Seagrove: 4.0"
Apex: 3.0"
Davidson: 3.0"
Greensboro: 3.0"
Holly Springs: 3.0"
Siler City: 3.0"
Troy: 3.0"
Warsaw: 3.0"
Lexington: 2.5"
Angier: 2.0"
Carthage: 2.0"
Goldsboro: 2.0"
Graham: 2.0"
Southern Pines: 2.0"
Stedman: 2.0"
Wilson: 2.0"
Winston-Salem: 2.0"
Durham: 1.5"
Hillsborough: 1.0"
Raleigh: 1.0"
RDU Airport: 0.8"
Louisburg: 0.5"
Oxford: 0.5"
Trenton: 0.5"
Charlotte: 0.4" (Airport)
Laurinburg: Trace
Hednerson: Trace
Raeford: Trace
Rockingham: Trace
Wadesboro: Trace
Warrenton: Trace

Quick Tuesday Afternoon Update

2010-03-02T15:13:00.002-05:00

Computer models this afternoon indicate somewhat higher snow totals will be possible overnight. We may see accumulations closer to 2-4" on average across the Triangle to Goldsboro and Wilson with some 4-5" totals from east Raleigh to the east and northeast. These accumulations will be mainly on grassy surfaces. Some light snow and slush may build up on some roads late tonight into early Wednesday morning. For locations south of a line from Wake County to Goldsboro, look for a dusting to 2 inches.

These totals may still need to be adjusted based on radar trends into the night. You'll find the latest forecast through the night every 10 minutes on News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina

Update on Chance for Snow Tonight into Early Wednesday

2010-03-02T09:30:00.004-05:00

Low pressure tracking off the Carolina coast is spreading rain across the Carolinas this morning. The precipitation around the Triangle, Sandhills, and coast should stay all rain through the afternoon. As temperatures drop this evening, the rain should begin to mix with and change to snow across parts of the Triangle and Sandhills. Coastal areas will remain rain through the night but may see some light snow as the precipitation tapers off early Wednesday morning.

An accumulation forecast remains difficult with this storm. Ground temperatures will remain just above freezing into the night. Because of that, light snow will not accumulate. However, moderate to heavy snow should begin to build up on grassy surfaces. This may mean some neighborhoods see no accumulation to other areas seeing an inch or two.

Here's the latest thinking on any accumulation by Wednesday morning...

Triangle: Locations around Chapel Hill to Durham to west Raleigh should see an inch or two of wet snow on grassy surfaces. Most roads will be wet, but some roads not frequently traveled may accumulate some slush. From east Raleigh to the east-northeast including northern Johnston, Franklin, Wilson, and Warren Counties. accumulations around two inches are possible but a few pockets of up to 4 inches will be possible where heavy snow falls. These areas may also see slush on roads early Wednesday.

Sandhills: Locations around the Sandhills including Fayetteville to Goldsboro can expect a trace of snow (no accumulation) up to an inch of slushy snow. Most roads will just be wet.

Coast: Locations along the immediate coast will see up to an inch or rain or slightly higher. No snow is expected along the immediate coast, but some inland areas may see light snow mix in with the rain very early Wednesday morning. Little to no accumulation is expected except perhaps a dusting in parts of Bladen and Duplin Counties. Coastal areas will also deal with strong winds tonight into Wednesday. Gale Warnings are in effect off the coast.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for updates through the day and night.

Monday Morning Update on Chance for Snow Tuesday into Wednesday

2010-03-01T09:30:00.005-05:00

Low pressure tracking along the Gulf coast late today will track off the Carolina coast by late Tuesday. That will spread rain and snow into the state Tuesday.

For the Triangle and Sandhills, we expect the precipitation to move in Tuesday morning through midday as light rain. The rain should pick up at times through the afternoon. During the day, it will be possible for the rain to mix with snow at times, but we do not anticipate accumulation during the day. Look for the rain or rain/snow mix to change to mostly snow by late afternoon or evening. Temperatures into the night will hover just above freezing keeping accumulations mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. Snow showers may continue through daybreak Wednesday morning with the temperature briefly dropping to or just below freezing. Based on this latest thinking, we expect between a dusting to 2 inches of wet snow accumulation. A band of heavier precipitation may set up just east-northeast of Raleigh and could lead to slightly higher amounts in an area around Louisburg to Rocky Mount to Roanoke Rapids and Ahoskie. Again, the accumulation would mainly be on grassy surfaces with very little on roadways expect for some slushy build up on mainly secondary roads.

Along the coast, the precipitation should stay as mainly all rain through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning. Some inland counties may see some light snow mix in with the rain as it tapers off Wednesday morning. No accumulation is expected in those areas though.

Keep in mind this is just a first look at an accumulation forecast, and it is still subject to change depending on the exact track of the low. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for any updates to the forecast.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina

March Snows in NC

2010-02-28T10:03:00.003-05:00

Here's a look back at recent March snows in North Carolina. Click the images for a larger version.

March 1-2, 2009:

March 16-17, 2005:

March 12-14, 1993:

March 24-25, 1983:

March 1-2, 1980:

Sunday AM Update on the Threat for Winter Weather in the Upcoming Week

2010-02-28T08:48:00.002-05:00

Saturday AM Update on Next Week's Possible Storm

2010-02-27T09:12:00.002-05:00

Tracking a Possible Storm for Next Week

2010-02-26T08:59:00.001-05:00

Mid-week outlook

2010-02-23T13:31:00.003-05:00

If you enjoyed last weekends weather, you were not alone! With highs reaching the 60's for the first time this February many folks were buzzing that the end of winter was in sight. Not so fast! An approaching storm from the south will meet up with colder air over North Carolina to bring a rain/snow mix to the Triangle and Virginia border counties for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Snow accumulations are expected to be on the light side as grassy areas could receive up to an inch during the evening and overnight Wed. An updated run of Stormcast wants to intensify this storm off the Mid-Atlantic Coast bringing snow to places like Elizabeth City tomorrow night in to Thursday.

Once this system pulls away on Thursday we're looking at a breezy and cold day as highs struggle to reach the low 40's!

February 12-13, 2010 Snowfall

2010-02-16T13:48:00.002-05:00

Here's a look at snowfall totals from Friday night February 12 through Saturday morning February 13:

Harker's Island: 8.8"
Jacksonville: 8.5"
Beaufort: 7.0"
Hubert: 7.0"
Morehead City: 7.0"
Newport: 7.0"
Wallace: 7.0"
Burgaw: 6.0"
Clinton: 6.0"
Goldsboro: 6.0"
Atlantic Beach: 5.5"
Surf City: 5.3"
Havelock: 5.0"
Kenansville: 5.0"
Mount Olive: 5.0"
Oak Island: 5.0"
Southport: 5.0"
Masonboro: 4.9"
Pinehurst: 4.1"
Albemarle: 4.0"
Cary: 4.0"
Elizabethtown: 4.0"
Fayetteville: 4.0"
Hope Mills: 4.0"
Wilmington: 3.8"
Clayton: 3.5"
Lillington: 3.5"
Lumberton: 3.5"
Raeford: 3.5"
Rockingham: 3.5"
Wilson: 3.5"
Apex: 3.4"
Southern Pines: 3.4"
Fort Bragg: 3.0"
Laurinburg: 3.0"
Lexington: 3.0"
Shallotte: 3.0"
Louisburg: 2.5"
Raleigh: 2.5"
Durham: 2.0"
Hillsborough: 2.0"
Oxford: 2.0"
Pittsboro: 2.0"
RDU Airport: 2.0"
Greensboro: 1.7"
Burlington: 1.5"
Winston-Salem: 1.0"