Afternoon Update

Rainfall Update

Showers and storms brought more needed rainfall to North Carolina Monday. Here's a look at some rain reports from around our area --

• Chapel Hill: 0.80"
• Raleigh - NCSU: 0.75"
• Fayetteville: 0.72"
• Raleigh-Durham Airport: 0.68"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.62"
• Goldsboro: 0.22"

The rain over the last month or so has really helped our drought situation across the state. In fact, for the last 90 days we have registered above normal rainfall in the Triangle. Our next chance for rain is expected this weekend.

Sunday's Rain; More Rain Today

Localized heavy downpours from showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening did cause some isolated flooding problems. As much as 3.28" of rain was reported at Capital Blvd. and Highwoods Sunday. 2.4" of that rain came during a one hour time period between 6:45pm and 7:45pm. Other areas of Raleigh didn't see quite as much rain -- 1.77" was reported at the National Weather Service Office on NC State's Centennial Campus and 1.16" was reported at RDU.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on today with some localized heavy downpours possible once again. If we see those heavy downpours over locations that saw heavy rain yesterday, we could again see some isolated flooding issues. There is also a slight chance for a strong storm or two this afternoon. As of this morning, the Storm Prediction Center had placed much of the eastern Carolinas under a slight risk for severe weather.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates through the day....

Possibility of Unsettled Weather for Sunday, Strong Storms Monday

Hello!



no video blog today, as I'm quite hoarse from some bug I managed to pick up this week. However, I wanted to say hello to the First Baptist Church Children's Ministries of Mebane, as I got to visit with the 3 and 4-year olds and talk about weather safety. We practiced "when thunder roars, go indoors", and "when lightning claps, hands in laps" (when in the car). They gave me a wonderful photo of the class which the children signed on the back side.










There is a possibility of some showers and storms for our Sunday, as a cold front came through NC late Saturday and early Sunday. It produced a range of weather from some storms in the Charlotte area to sprinkles in central NC.
That front will drape across the southern part of the state today , giving us a mix of sun and clouds as well as a possibility for some hit and miss showers and storms.
The front will change into a warm front tonight and lift northward, giving us yet another opportunity for some showers or storms. A stronger cold front will pass through as we enter the work week producing widespread showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. We'll keep you up to date in the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center.

Unsettled weather developing for Sunday & Monday

Lovely start to our weekend, but the first of two cold fronts will bring possible showers and storms late Saturday into Sunday. A second ( and stronger) cold front will bring a slight risk for strong to severe storms on Monday followed by cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

More in today's video blog:

Afternoon Update

Hail Pictures

Thunderstorms produced hail in some neighborhoods across our part of North Carolina Monday afternoon. Hail up to the size of quarters was reported in Wayne County, while even larger golfball size hail was reported to our east closer to the coast.

Several News 14 Carolina viewers reported hail including Danielle in Dunn who sent us these photos from her home in Harnett County.

If you ever have weather photos to share with us, you can send them directly to the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center by e-mailing weather@news14.com.

Weekend Storms; More Rain to Start the Week

Thunderstorms produced hail in some spots around our area Sunday afternoon and evening. Pea sized hail was reported in Wake County near Wake Forest and near the Franklin County line. Larger hail up to an inch in diameter was reported in Pittsboro and between Rocky Mount and Wilson.

Sunday's showers and storms produced some beneficial rains for the area --

• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.69"
• Raleigh-Durham Airport: 0.43"
• Fayetteville: 0.39"
• Raleigh (NCSU): 0.33"
• Chapel Hill: 0.03"
• Lumberton: 0.01"

As you can see, not everyone saw beneficial rains over the weekend. If you missed out, more rain is in the forecast today and tomorrow. I have more on the rain chances the next couple of days in this morning's video blog update posted below...

Scattered showers and storms this weekend

We started out with abundant sunshine in NC this weekend, however an approaching cold front will mean an increase in clouds and a chance for hit and miss showers and storms. While we're not expecting severe weather, if thunderstorms do form we could see the possibility of thunderstorms producing small hail and/or gusty winds. The front will cross the state later tonight into Sunday morning, so keep an umbrella handy! There will be a better possibility of showers wilth measureable rain in the NE part of our state Sunday.

An upper level low will approach Sunday, which means a better chance that storms could produce hail. So far the storm prediction center has not placed any risk of severe storms forming. That means if hail forms, it should be less than 3/4" in diameter. We could also see gusty winds if storms form. Otherwise, our weather Sunday will feature variable clouds and widely scattered showers.

Yesterday was our first code orange ozone day in NC, which meant our first ozone action day. According to the NC Department of Environment and Natural Resources ; Division of Air Quality, The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently revised the ozone air quality standards based on new health information that demonstrates adverse health impacts at lower concentrations of ozone than previously thought. Consequently, the Air Quality Index (AQI) and the air quality forecasts have been adjusted to reflect the revised ozone standard. Air Quality Action Days (Code Orange and Red) are now at least twice as likely to occur in North Carolina than during the past several years. They ask that you please understand that the air quality in North Carolina has not suddenly deteriorated; rather, the air quality forecasts are more protective of public health based on the new health studies and revised national standards.

For more information, please see their website (which includes daily ozone forecasts): http://daq.state.nc.us/Ozone/

Have a great Weekend!

Pati Darak, Weather on the Ones Meteorologist, News 14 Carolina

Chilly Wednesday Morning

This morning was the coldest of the week with temperatures dropping to near freezing in many spots. Here's a look at lows around the region this morning --

• Louisburg: 28
• Southern Pines: 30
• Chapel Hill: 31
• Raleigh-Durham: 32
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 33
• Fayetteville: 34
• Henderson-Oxford: 34
• Laurinburg: 34
• Lumberton: 34
• Goldsboro: 37

A warm-up is now underway for the rest of the week. Afternoon temperatures still look to reach the low 80s for Friday.

Afternoon Update

Light Frost Possible Wednesday Morning

It was cool start this morning with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, but even colder temperatures are in the forecast for Wednesday morning. High pressure building over the Carolinas today will give way to a clear night with light winds. Combine those conditions with relatively dry air, and temperatures should drop to the mid 30s. Some outlying areas may get close to 32. That will be cold enough for frost in some spots around the region. We do not anticipate a hard freeze, but you may want to cover or bring inside any tender vegetation.

Wednesday morning should be the coldest of the week with warming temperatures expected for the rest of the week. Highs near 80 are in the forecast for Friday!

Afternoon Update

Viewer Pictures...

The National Weather Service confirmed an EF-0 tornado in Wayne County on Saturday afternoon as a destructive storm plowed through the region. Here's a link to the story on our web site: Wayne County Storm. One News 14 Carolina viewer sent in images of the storm as it raced through Wayne County near Goldsboro.

Stephanie Metzger sent in these two images of the leading edge of the storm as it approached. It's not easy to see, but this is a ragged shelf cloud. A shelf cloud is associated with the gust front (outflow) of a thunderstorm. Winds pushing out from the center of the storm are responsible the look and shape of these clouds. As the gust front passes winds will increase in intensity and can reach as high as 70 mph!

Put the Umbrella by the door, chance of sprinkles Monday

Our weather video today features photos by our viewers of saturday's severe weather.

A confirmed EF-0 tornado passed through Wayne county yesterday afternoon, and golfball sized hail came from that same storm just about a half hour earlier over Johnston county.

The cold front which passed later Saturday is responsible for some westerly breezes and cooler weather today. We may see some late afternoon clouds and maybe a sprinkle, but a better chance of precipitation will come Monday as an upper level low passes over the east coast.

Monday will start out chilly with temps near 40 and some sunshine, but those clouds will come in by afternoon, and showers are expected into the afternoon and evening.

By the way, you might hear of the possibility of patchy frost to our west this week, which makes one think : when is it okay to put the plants outside? Most veteran Carolinian gardeners have it in their bones, but for those who are either new to the area or just cannot remember, here's a helpful map from the National Weather Service of when our last Hard Freeze (not frost) traditionally occurs for the Spring across NC. If you want to get a better copy, here's the link to the NWS:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/climate/data/nc.avg.last.spring.freeze.gif

As far as the rest of our forecast, Conditions improve by midweek with high pressure and sunshine.

Have a great Sunday!

Pati Darak

News14 Carolina

Possible strong to severe storms as we start the weekend

Thanks to an approaching cold front we have the possibility for strong to severe storms today. As as of this post (927am) there are severe storms just west of greensboro. We'll monitor the possibilty of those storms coming to Central and Eastern NC and if they do, there is a threat of damaging winds and hail. Best timing for these would be as we approach midday and throughout the afternoon Saturday for central NC and the Sandhills , later afternoon and into the evening as we look eastward to the I-95 region. That could change as we go through the day so Check in with your Weather on the Ones team as the weather turns nasty for the start of this weekend.

The Rain Helped, but We're Not Out of the Woods

The latest drought monitor for North Carolina shows significant improvements across the Central and Eastern parts of the state. Now, only 12 counties are under extreme conditions while 50 are included within the severe category. After a week and a half of off-again and on-again rain, our lengthy drought is now moving in the right direction. Keep in mind, we are still in a severe drought for most of the News 14 Carolina viewing area. This means we need to maintain our saving ways and limit wasteful water useage.

Rain Last Weekend... More Rain this Weekend?

It seems like we are getting into a pattern of rain on the weekends. The last two weekends featured rainy weather, and some rain is possible this coming weekend. Of course, rain over the weekend recently isn't really bad news. Rains from last week and last weekend have really helped the drought conditions in North Carolina. Here's a graphic for rainfall from April 3 through the 6 from the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh:

This weekend's rain chances will come mainly on Saturday as a cold front passes through the state. Ahead of that front, look for a warm up through the rest of the week with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 for Thursday and Friday. That same front will bring cooler temperatures for early next week when morning lows may dip to the 30s!

April Showers

Rain so far this month has been a big help to our drought. The City of Raleigh will announce this morning that it will ease up on some of the current water restrictions currently in place because of the recent rains. Here's a look at rainfall totals for the month of April from around the state:

• Fayetteville: 3.64"
• Greensboro: 2.12"
• Charlotte: 1.58"
• Asheville: 1.43"
• Wilmington: 1.34"
• Raleigh: 1.31"

The recent rain surplus does not mean the drought is totally over. If you go back January 2007, we are still just a little over 8 inches behind. However, for 2008 we are now less than an inch behind in rain. With most of our lakes filling up, the drought news is much better!

Here are some of the drought headlines today from news14.com --

• City to ease up on water restrictions
• Lake levels benefit from recent rains

Another Cool Air Wedge Setup for Monday

This week's forecast may be a challenge again for the start of the week as another cool air wedge sets up in the wake of a cold front which brought 1-3+" of rain to eastern North Carolina over the past 3 days.

Forecast models have a difficult time computing temperature and precipitation forecasts ( as saw last week!) so we may have updates from day to day on our warmup trend this week.

As it stands, the wedge of cooler air seems to be in place for the start of the work week, but the parent high pressure may shift eastward by wednesday. If this happens, we'll see winds shift from a northerly to southerly which would warm us up quickly! We'll start our week in the 50s and once the wedge erodes expect a quick trip to the 70s.

As far as precipitation, expect rather dry conditions (except for some drizzle and fog today and tonight!) until Friday into Saturday when showers could again bring some welcome rain.

Have a great week!

Pati Darak,

Meteorologist, News 14 Carolina

Severe Threat All But Over...

After a stormy Friday night there was concern there would be more severe weather to come on Saturday. What unfolded during the afternoon and evening was an ideal situation to allow for a steady rain, but no severe storms for the viewing area.

It appears most of the instability was eaten up by convection on Friday night. Not to say there wasn't a chance to have storms on Saturday afternoon and evening, but by spending the entire day under clouds and rain the threat for strong storms never materialized.

There are indications Monday is shaping up to be a cloudy day with spotty showers as another cool air wedge moves over the Carolinas. We'll have more on this forecast with your weather on the ones forecast every ten minutes...

Heavy Rains and Possible Severe Storms for the Start of Our Weekend

Hello

As of this writing (about 1230 pm Saturday), the Eastern half of NC was designated by the Storm Prediction Center as having a slight risk for strong to severe storms for the remainder of the day and into the nighttime hours.

Late friday and early Saturday we had a round of strong to severe storms which produced a good deal of lightning, a number of wind damage reports, especially south and east of the Triangle, a report of large hail (golf-ball sized) in Moore County and a possible EF-zero tornado in Lenoir county (south and east of Goldsboro). The National Weather Service has based that tornado report on preliminary data. Our storms also deposited a much needed rainfall of 1+ inches, and we may see that and more today!

There is a cold front to our west for the start of the weekend, and as it approaches central NC later today we'll continue to see copious amounts of rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms. There is a possibilty that our early afternoon showers could take away some of the energy necessary to produce strong to severe storms. Be sure to check with your Weather on the Ones Forecast Center for more updates as we proceed through the afternoon and evening.

As for Sunday, the cold front wants to stall slightly at the coast to start the day, so we may see persistent clouds and temperatures in the lower 60s. We may also have a weak cold air wedge event to start the week, but it expected to erode quickly. Temperatures by mid week are expected to recover into the 70s.

Enjoy the rain!

Pati Darak,

Weather On The Ones Meteorologist,

News 14 Carolina

Dreary Start to Friday

Ask most meteorologists in central North Carolina what's the most difficult thing to forecast in our area, and you'll probably get cold air damming as your answer. We have talked a lot this week about the cool air wedge, or cold air damming, setup for yesterday. Indeed, the cool air wedge developed yesterday. The only problem is it doesn't seem like it wants to go away. Originally, it appeared a warm front would pass through the state overnight giving us a warmer start this morning. As of this blog post just before 10am, that warm front is yet to arrive. In fact, it is still located just inland of the North Carolina coast, so we are stuck in the upper 40s to near 50 with overcast skies and some light mist and drizzle.

The warm front that is along the coast should make some progress our way through the day. Once it passes through your neighborhood, you should see a quick warm up to the upper 60s to possibly even some low 70s south and east of Raleigh. If the front does not move is expected, we could end up with a big forecast bust and temperatures would hold stead near 50 for most of the day.

I am pretty confident that we will eventually see the warm front move through all of our area by tonight giving us a warm start for Saturday. That will set us up for more widespread and heavier rains as a cold front slowly works its away across the state. Much of area could see between 1 and 2 inches of rain. A few of the storms could become strong with damaging winds.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates into the weekend.

Much Warmer Weather to End the Workweek

A Warm front will move northward through NC Thursday overnight into Friday. Expect temperatures to be milder for the morning commute and soar into the upper 70s to near 80 for the sandhills.

more in this evening's video blog.

Cloudy and Cool Today; Storms for the Weekend?

The cool air wedge is setting up across North Carolina today. That will make it tough to get to the mid 50s around the Triangle this afternoon. We'll see occasional showers through the day. As a warm front moves through the state tonight, look for temperatures to rise overnight giving us a much warmer day for Friday. We may see a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm Friday, but the greater chances for more widespread rain still looks to come on Saturday. A few strong storms still look to be a possibility on Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the Carolinas for a slight risk of severe weather Saturday.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest on your weekend forecast....

Wednesday Morning Update

Most of us stayed dry yesterday but a few showers and thunderstorms did develop across the area. Here's an update on rainfall since this weekend --

• Raleigh-Durham: 1.42"
• Chapel Hill: 0.81"
• Fayetteville: 0.74"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.60"
• Lumberton: 0.32"
• Goldsboro: 0.30"

We won't add to those totals today, but more rain is in the forecast Thursday-Saturday. Tomorrow's rains will come in the form of drizzle and light showers as another cold air wedge sets up across central North Carolina. That is similar to our weather set-up this past weekend. That will keep things cool in the Triangle tomorrow with highs only in the low 50s, while the 60s will be possible from Fayetteville to Goldsboro and Wilson.

We'll all warm into the 70s on Friday with showers and storms in the forecast Friday and Saturday. A few storms Saturday could become strong. I have more on forecast through the rest of the week and the weekend in this morning's video blog posted below...

Rain Update...

As of this morning, here's a look at rain totals from around the area since this weekend:

• Raleigh-Durham: 1.40"
• Chapel Hill: 0.75"
• Fayetteville: 0.72"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.58"
• Goldsboro: 0.25"
• Lumberton: 0.21"

We'll continue to see the rain add up today as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop by this afternoon. An isolated storm or two could become strong this afternoon with gusty winds.

Most of us should see a break in the rain Wednesday, although we will stay mostly cloudy. Another cold air wedge will set up Thursday keeping us cloudy and cool with light showers. Then look for another warm up for Friday with more thunderstorms late Friday and Saturday.

We'll finally see more sunshine by Sunday and the first of next week!