Hurricane Earl is maintaining its strength as a major storm in the Atlantic this morning as it moves west-northwest of Puerto Rico. Powerful storms like Earl often see some small fluctuations in strength, and that is what we expect to see over the coming days with this hurricane.
Earl will remain a very powerful storm as it closes in on the east coast of the United States. Fortunately, most computer models and our latest forecast continue to keep the storm just off the Carolina coastline with its closest approach coming late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
This track would keep Earl's strongest winds and heaviest rains over the Atlantic Ocean. We must monitor the storms track closely over the next couple of days, as it is still possible it may track just west of the current forecast. If a westerly track occurs, the impact of Earl on our coast could be significant.At this point the most likely scenario is for the storm to just stay off the coast with the Outer Banks feeling the biggest effects from Earl. By late Thursday night and early Friday, tropical storm force winds and locally heavy rain from the outer bands of the storm should move across the Outer Banks. Beach erosion and some wash over of Highway 12 is possible.
The Crystal Coast area (around Morehead City, Atlantic Beach, and Emerald Isle) may also see some of the outer rain bands with tropical storm force wind gusts. Down the coast in the Cape Fear region (Wrightsville Beach, Carolina Beach, Oak Island, Holden Beach, Ocean Isle), the effects of Earl should be minimal. Lighter rain may move through some of the immediate coast in this region with occasional wind gusts to 30 or 35mph.
On this track, inland area across North Carolina including the Triangle and Sandhills may not see a drop of rain with only clouds and a light breeze Thursday night.
Again, it is very important to note conditions could change dramatically if the storm moves just a little to the west. The forecast is still subject to change. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates through the week.
Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Satellite images this morning show a very healthy Hurricane Danielle with a well defined eye. That's the sign of a very strong hurricane, and indeed, Danielle strengthened into a category 4 hurricane early this morning. Fortunately, the storm is still on track to turn out to sea and will not be a threat to land.
Even though Danielle will be far off the North Carolina coast, swells from the storm will create dangerous rip currents at our beaches. Lifeguards will be very busy this weekend. The weather will be great at the beach this weekend, but if you're enjoying the nice beach weather, it will be best to stay out of the water.
Earl will continue to move to the west for the next few days and is then forecast to take a more northwesterly turn early next week. While Earl may come closer to the Carolina coast than Danielle, most models still keep the storm offshore next week. However, I would caution that it is still too early to say with a lot of certainty that Earl will turn out to sea. Earl is still a storm to watch very closely.
There are two storms to watch in the Atlantic today -- Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl. As of early this morning Danielle was a category 2 hurricane and is forecast to become a category 3 storm in the coming days. Fortunately, we are confident Danielle will take a more northerly turn this weekend taking the hurricane away from the U.S. coast and just east of Bermuda.
