Review of Friday's storm reports and preview of our 2009 hurricane season

The Atlantic Basin hurricane season begins tomorrow, June 1st. The updated forecast calls for a near normal season with a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5). They also stated that 'global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years.'

Here is the link to the forecast report from May 21st:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090521_atlantichurricane.html

Our Forecast for Monday looks to be a quiet one, as high pressure to our north keeps us under mostly sunny skies. There is a slight chance for an isolated shower or storm thanks to easterly winds bringing a sea breeze inland. Our humidity and storm chances are forecast to increase into Tuesday and throughout the rest of the week.

Last week ended on a stormy note, as showers and storms (some developing to strong to severe limits) brought heavy rains, a good deal of lightning and, in some cases, hail. Here's what was reported to the National Weather Service:
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Storm reports from Friday's (May 29th) afternoon / evening storms:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1108 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM HAIL 2 S CLINTON 34.97N 78.33W
05/29/2009 E1.00 INCH SAMPSON NC BROADCAST MEDIA

0425 PM HAIL MOUNT OLIVE 35.20N 78.07W
05/29/2009 E0.75 INCH WAYNE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

0450 PM HAIL 5 NNW CONCORD 36.54N 79.09W
05/29/2009 E1.00 INCH PERSON NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON CUNNINGHAM ROAD IN
NORTHERN PERSON COUNTY.

0545 PM HAIL ALTAMAHAW 36.18N 79.51W
05/29/2009 E0.75 INCH ALAMANCE NC TRAINED SPOTTER

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW BETHEL HILL 36.49N 78.90W
05/29/2009 PERSON NC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN ON BOWMANTOWN
ROAD. TREES WERE A COUPLE INCHES IN DIAMETER. OTHER SMALL
LIMBS DOWN.

0626 PM HAIL ESE ROSEBORO 34.95N 78.51W
05/29/2009 E0.75 INCH SAMPSON NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ROSEBORO FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL ON
EAST PLEASANT STREET IN ROSEBORO.

0655 PM HAIL 3 SSW WILSON 35.69N 77.95W
05/29/2009 E1.00 INCH WILSON NC EMERGENCY MNGR

WILSON COUNTY 911 REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT HWY 301
AND WIGGINS MILL RD.

0656 PM HAIL 2 SSW WILSON 35.70N 77.93W
05/29/2009 E1.00 INCH WILSON NC AMATEUR RADIO

AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AT WILSON COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS.

0657 PM HAIL NE KENLY 35.59N 78.12W
05/29/2009 E0.75 INCH JOHNSTON NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

KENLY FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL IN KENLY.


0701 PM HAIL 3 SSE WILSON 35.70N 77.90W
05/29/2009 E1.75 INCH WILSON NC NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
JUST EAST OF WILSON AS HE WAS DRIVING THROUGH THE AREA.

0705 PM HAIL 5 S WILSON 35.66N 77.93W
05/29/2009 E0.88 INCH WILSON NC PUBLIC

MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC TOOK PICTURES OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL
ON YANK ROAD IN WILSON.

0706 PM HAIL WNW PINETOPS 35.79N 77.64W
05/29/2009 E0.88 INCH EDGECOMBE NC PUBLIC

0745 PM HAIL WSW TARBORO 35.91N 77.56W
05/29/2009 E1.50 INCH EDGECOMBE NC PUBLIC

QUARTER TO PING-PONG SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE
TARBORO CITY LIMITS.

0832 PM HAIL 5 WSW ROSEBORO 34.92N 78.60W
05/29/2009 E0.88 INCH CUMBERLAND NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE BEAVER DAM FIRE
DEPARTMENT OFF OF NC HWY 210

Friday Morning Update on Tropical Depression #1

Tropical Depression #1 is hanging on early this morning in the Atlantic but has not been able to strengthen into a tropical storm. That is not looking likely at this point as it continue to track east-northeast across cooler ocean waters. It is likely the system will weaken over the next 24 hours, and it will not impact any land areas.

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins Monday, June 1. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina Monday for reports from the coast on preparations for this year's hurricane season.

First Tropical Depression of the Season Forms

The area of low pressure that was off the coast of North Carolina become the first tropical depression to form in the Atlantic in 2009. The season officially begins on June 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before weakening over cooler ocean waters. If the system becomes a storm, it will be called Tropical Storm Ana.

The depression is moving to the northeast today and is not forecast to impact land.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for tropical updates at :21 after the hour.

Update on Low off NC Coast

From the National Hurricane Center...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

755 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ALONG THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

Low off NC Coast

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure off the North Carolina coast for a slight possibility for weak tropical development. The probability of tropical development is less than 30%, and even if it does develop into a tropical system, it should mainly just impact the Outer Banks with rain showers.

Here's this morning's outlook from the NHC...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2009

CORRECTED TO ADD PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH... THE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON... IF NECESSARY... AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT. SEE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

Hurricane Preparedness Week

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season begins in less than a week. Most forecasts for this year predict a near normal season for the number of named storms. Regardless if its a normal, above normal, or below normal season, it only takes one powerful storm to create havoc. A storm could impact the Carolina coast and inland areas of the Carolinas with damaging winds, flooding rains, and tornadoes.

Are you prepared for the upcoming season? Check out the National Hurricane Center's online preparedness guide at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml

Are you ready to hit the water? This week is 'Safe Boating Week'

Wearing a life jacket is one of the most effective and simple life-saving strategies for safe recreational boating. Boaters are required to have a U.S. Coast Guard-approved life jacket on board for every passenger on their vessel.

Modern life jackets are available in a wide variety of shapes, colors, and sizes. They are comfortable, lightweight, and perfect for any boating activity or sport.

No matter what the activity or life jacket style chosen, the most important thing is this: remember to grab a life jacket and "Wear It!" To learn more, visit the National Safe Boating Council online, at www.safeboatingcouncil.org.

For more information and safety tips, check out the link below:

http://safeboating.erh.noaa.gov/

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A Little Sun, Cooler Monday!

After a wet Sunday that featured locally heavy rain, the clouds will be slow to move out. In fact it may take until midday Monday until the Triangle gets a few peeks of sun.

Decreasing clouds today, breezy and cooler with highs in the low to mid 60s. NE winds of 10-20 with occasional gusts to 25.
Clear to mostly clear and chilly tonight. lows in the low to mid 40s. NE winds 3-8.
Tuesday: Sunny and a bit warmer; highs in the lower 70s.

Outlook for the rest of the week: Your Weather on the Ones forecast center is watching a disturbed area of weather off the southeast coast of Florida. Forecast models have been varying on how this system will move this week. There is one idea of this system moving north and west, which would have onshore winds steering clouds and showers toward southern portions of North Carolina later this week, or another solution taking this system more toward the west into the Gulf of Mexico. We'll keep you updated on any changes this week in your Weather on the Ones 7-day forecast.

Monday Morning Storms

The National Weather Service offices in Raleigh and Wilmington have confirmed Monday morning's storm damage in Scotland and Robeson Counties was not done by a tornado. Here's more from their storm reports...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
443 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009.

..MICROBURST (STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE) CONFIRMED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ORRUM NC...
LOCATION(CITY, COUNTY)...5 MILES NORTHEAST ORRUM, ROBESON COUNTY
DATE...MAY 11TH 2009
ESTIMATED TIME...858 TO 900 AM
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...125 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...350 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...2.5 MILES
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...1

* NOTE THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT.

...SUMMARY...

A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM ENTERED WESTERN ROBESON COUNTY NEAR MAXTON AROUND 815 AM MONDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM TOPPLED NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES AS IT ACCELERATED TO THE EAST. THE MOST SEVERE DAMAGE OCCURRED SOON AFTER THE STORM MOVED EAST OF HIGHWAY 72 APPROXIMATELY 8-10 MILES SOUTH OF LUMBERTON. AROUND THIS TIME... A WET MICROBURST... OR LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN...BEGAN TO DESCEND. AS THIS ACCELERATING COLUMN OF AIR REACHED THE GROUND...IT RAPIDLY SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A SWATH OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS TREES...POWER LINES AND HOMES.

THE MICROBURST DAMAGE BEGAN TO APPEAR IN THE VICINITY OF WILTON DRIVE NEAR GEM ROAD. SEVERAL TREES WERE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED OFF AND MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES AND SIDING WAS OBSERVED. THE DAMAGE BECAME MORE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM CROSSED HIGHWAY 72 AND APPROACHED SADIE DRIVE. NUMEROUS LARGE TREES WERE SNAPPED OFF OR UPROOTED ALONG HIGHWAY 72...AND SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OCCURRED TO APPROXIMATELY EIGHT HOMES ON SADIE DRIVE. ONE OF THOSE HOMES WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND ONE LOST ITS ROOF. IN ADDITION... SEVERAL SHEDS OR OUT BUILDINGS WERE TOTALLY DEMOLISHED.

DAMAGE OF THIS NATURE IS CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT LINE WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 125 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT A TORNADO OCCURRED WITH THIS STORM... THE EXTENT OF DAMAGE IT PRODUCED IS COMPARABLE TO A RATING OF EF-2. THIS WOULD ALSO BE COMPARABLE TO WIND SPEEDS EXPERIENCED IN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2009

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY FINDS DAMAGE IN SOUTHERN SCOTLAND COUNTY DUE TO STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...

LOCATION: SCOTCH MEADOWS COUNTRY CLUB AND IMMEDIATE VICINITY
DATE: MONDAY MAY 11, 2009
TIME: 808 AM - 811 AM EDT
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS (MICROBURST)PEAK WIND SPEED: ~90 MPH
DAMAGE LENGTH: ~2 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH AT ENDPOINT: ~2 MILES
* INJURIES: NONE
* FATALITIES: NONE

A STORM SURVEY CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOUND THAT DAMAGE IN SOUTHERN SCOTLAND COUNTY THIS MORNING WAS THE RESULT OF A MICROBURST... WITH PEAK WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 90 MPH. THE MICROBURST BEGAN JUST WEST OF SCOTCH MEADOWS COUNTRY CLUB NEAR FAIRWAY DRIVE AT 808 AM... AND CONTINUED EAST FOR ALMOST 2 MILES BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR HASTY ROAD BY 811 AM. BY THE TIME SEVERE WINDS HAD DISSIPATED AT HASTY ROAD... THE WIDTH OF THE MICROBURST HAD GROWN TO NEARLY 2 MILES... STRETCHING FROM THE INTERSECTION OF BARNES BRIDGE ROAD AND HASTY ROAD TO THE INTERSECTION OF CRESTLINE ROAD AND HASTY ROAD.

WHEN THE MICROBURST BEGAN NEAR FAIRWAY DRIVE IT KNOCKED DOWN NUMEROUS TREES...WHICH RESULTED IN MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO 3 HOMES JUST WEST OF THE SCOTCH MEADOWS COUNTRY CLUB. AS THE MICROBURST PROGRESSED EAST OF THE COUNTRY CLUB TOWARD HASTY ROAD IT DESTROYED TWO BARNS. MINOR TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED AS FAR EAST AS HASTY ROAD.

Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues

Showers and thunderstorms are back in the forecast over the next few days in North Carolina. At times, the storms could again be strong to severe. Here are the latest severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center...

For today and tonight --

for Thursday --

and for Friday --

Here are the latest hazarous weather outlooks from the National Weather Service --

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STALLED FRONT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT . THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS TO ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

RESIDENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ADVISED TO MAINTAIN AWARENESS OF LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND OR WARNING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IMPACT THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL... HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE

..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Severe Weather Reports from Tuesday

Here's a look at reports of severe weather in the News 14 Carolina viewing area Tuesday afternoon --

• 3:28pm - Tornado reported by a fire department are rescue squad near Warsaw in Duplin County.
• 3:34pm - Tornado reported by the public at the Kenansville Airstrip in Duplin County.
• 3:48pm - Funnel cloud reported by a trained spotter east of Goldsboro in Wayne County.
• 3:55pm - Funnel cloud reported by a trained spotter east of Coats Crossroads in Johnston County.
• 4:38pm - Funnel cloud reported by a sheriff deputy over Buckhorn Reservoir in Wilson County.
• 4:52pm - Tornado with damage reported on Rock Ridge School Road in Wilson County.
• 4:55pm - Funnel cloud reported by law enforcement on Country Club Drive and NC 58 near Wilson.
• 5:01pm - Funnel cloud reported by a trained spotter looking north east from I-95 and US 264.
• 5:25pm - Power lines and trees reported down south of Sims in Wilson County.
• 5:25pm - Law enforcement report of a tornado on the ground near Highway 102 in Calico in Craven County.
• 5:38pm - Tornado reported by a trained spotter near Emit in Johnston County.
• 6:04pm - Penny size hail reported at the Morrisville Town Hall and Fire Department.
• 6:35pm - Tornado reported by the Cary Fire Department near Highway 1 and Cary Parkway.
• 6:59pm - Nickel size hail reported near Spring Forest Road and Falls of the Neuse Road.
• 7:01pm - Funnel cloud reported by Capitol Police near the State Capitol building in downtown Raleigh
• 7:10pm - Funnel cloud reported near Knightdale.
• 7:15pm - Report of a motorist stranded in 2-3 feet of water at Atlantic Ave. and Highwoods Blvd. in Raleigh
• 7:15pm - 1.4" of rain reported in 25 minutes at Highwoods Blvd. and Capitol Blvd. in Raleigh.
• 7:18pm - Report of a foot of water flowing across Capitol Blvd. and Old Buffaloe Rd.
• 7:23pm - Quarter size hail reported near Knightdale Blvd. and Village Squire Court near Knightdale
• 7:25pm - Amateur radio report of a funnel cloud near Highway 64 and Auburn-Knightdale Road.
• 7:35pm - 1 to 1.5 feet of standing water reported by a trained spotter in the Medfield subdivision in Cary

Wilson County Tornado Pics

The above pictures were taken by News 14 Carolina viewer Mark Wilson along Highway 264 at the Sims exit in Wilson County Tuesday afternoon. Mark reports extensive damage in the area.

E-mail your reports and pictures to weather@news14.com

Isolated storms possible Friday afternoon

Friday afternoon update: The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Central NC in a slight risk category for strong to severe storms. Your Weather on the Ones forecast center is monitoring for any developing storms that have the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail and / or frequent lightning. Check with us throughout the afternoon for updates.

Our current weather setup includes a good deal of moisture in the air and some sunshine, which is creating instability this afternoon. Pair that up with a passing upper-level disturbance and that will take this air and lift it vigorously, giving us that possibility for storms to develop. The threat diminishes after sunset tonight, so you'll still be able to partake of your outdoor plans as you kick off your weekend.

Saturday and Sunday we will have a better chance of seeing some scattered showers and storms as a cold front to our north settles over the northern portion of our state. Temperatures will remain warm, highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the low to mid 60s.

As far as next week, we're still looking at an unsettled weather pattern with a possibility of showers or storms each day and highs in the low to mid 80s.

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