USAID FRONTLINES: From Famine to Feast in Brazil

USAID FRONTLINES: From Famine to Feast in Brazil

I thought in this time of gratitude that you would enjoy reading a story of a nation's turnaround to abundance from famine.....
Have a safe and bountiful holiday .
Pati Darak

Hurricane Irene - Friday PM Update

What to expect Friday night - Saturday morning:

Crystal Coast (Morehead City-Atlantic Beach-Emerald Isle)

• Hurricane force winds possible after midnight and into Saturday morning



• 6-10" of rain possible with localized higher amounts



• Storm surge up to 10 feet possible resulting in a worst case of 4-6feet inudation about sea level in the surge zone

Inland from the Crystal Coast (New Bern - Havelock - Newport)

• Hurricane force wind gusts possible after midnight and into Saturday morning



• 6-8" of rain possible leading to some flooding

Onslow County (Jacksonville)

• Hurricane force wind gusts



• 4-6 foot storm surge along the coast



• 6-8" of rain possible

Cape Fear region and coast (Wilmington - Wrightsville Beach - Brunswick Co.)

• Tropical storm force winds will continue into the early morning with a hurricane force gust not out of the question along the coastal areas



• 4-6 foot storm surge along the coast



• 5-8" of rain possible

I-95 corridor (Johnston County - Wilson - Goldsboro)

• Wind gusts up to 60mph possible



• 3-6" of rain with localized higher amounts possible

Triangle and Sandhills (Raleigh -Durham - Chapel Hill - Fayetteville)

• Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph possible



• 1-2" of rain with some higher amounts in the eastern parts of this area and lower amounts to the west

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates through the night and day

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hurricane Irene - Wednesday Update

Hurricane Irene strengthened into a category 3 hurricane Wednesday morning and appears to be tracking toward the U.S. East Coast. The storm should take a more northwest and eventually more northerly turn steering the storm just east of Florida and toward North Carolina's Outer Banks. The latest forecast track has shifted to the east compared to earlier in the week.

Here's a look at some of the latest computer model forecasts from Wednesday --
There are now several models showing Irene's center passing just east of the Outer Banks. Keep in mind Irene is a large storm and even if the storm's center passes just east of the Outer Banks much of coastal North Carolina will still be impacted by the storm. Tropical storm force winds (40mph+) extend up to 200 miles from the storm's center.

A track directly over the Outer Banks as a strong category 2 or category 3 storm would not only bring damaging winds and flooding rains to that area, but it would create overwash from the ocean and sounds. A track just to the east may not be quite as devastating but would still produce hurricane force winds (75mph+) along the Outer Banks along with heavy rain and some overwash. Gusts up to 100mph cannot be ruled out especially near Hatteras.

Based on the latest forecast track, here's what we expect for other areas in North Carolina:

Crystal Coast (Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Morehead City)

• Outer rain bands from Irene arrive Friday. Rain, which could be heavy at times, will continue Friday night and into Saturday.


• Tropical storm force winds are possible Friday night and Saturday. Wind gusts up to 60 to 65mph possible. Could see a higher gust at Cape Lookout.

Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the Cape Fear Coast (Topsail Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Carolina Beach, Oak Island, Holden Beach, Ocean Isle)

• Outer rain bands from Irene arrive Friday. Rain will continue Friday night into Saturday. Heavy downpours are possible at times.


• Tropical storm force winds are possible Friday night and Saturday. Gusts up to 50mph possible.
  

Wilson and Goldsboro

• Scattered showers and a few storms are possible Friday afternoon and Saturday.


• Sustained winds 10-25mph expected with on occasional gust up to 30 or 35mph possible Saturday.

Triangle and Sandhills (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill and Fayetteville)

• Minimal impacts from Irene


• Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon with some rain possible Saturday. However, some locations may see very little if any rain.


• Sustained winds: 10-20mph with an occasional higher gust.
  
  
  

Irene will quickly move away from the North Carolina coast late Saturday night and early Sunday. The storm will quickly accelerate up the east coast and could track over or near Long Island, New York as a hurricane Sunday.

All of the expected mentioned in this post could change if there is a change in the forecast track. A jog just a little to the west or to the east could change the expected impact in your area. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest information.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hurricane Irene -- Monday AM Update

Hurricane Irene is strengthening this morning as it pulls away from Puerto Rico. It appears the storm will brush past the Dominican Republic and Haiti over the next day. As the center of the storm tracks just to the north of Hispaniola, it will not likely be impacted by the mountainous terrain of that island. Often when storms track directly over Hispaniola, they weaken. This is not likely to happen with Irene. With the storm staying just north of the island, it is expected to maintain its strength or continue to strengthen.

As the storm tracks over the Bahamas and just east of Florida, conditions may be favorable for rapid strengthening from mid to late week. This morning's forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Irene as a strong category 2 storm by the end of the week. That is a conservative forecast, and Irene could certainly be stronger. Coastal residents should always prepare for a storm that is at least one category stronger than forecast.

It is still much too early to make a call on an exact location for landfall for the storm in the southeastern US. A look at the computer models posted below shows uncertainty from Florida to here in North Carolina.

It does appear the storm could make landfall somewhere from Florida to the Outer Banks. Even if Irene makes landfall around Georgia or southern South Carolina, the remnants of the storm could still track over North Carolina this weekend.

A lot could and likely will change with Irene's forecast over the coming days. There is still plenty of time to monitor the latest forecasts. Everyone in the Carolinas should have their preparedness plan and be ready to act later this week if necessary.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for updates. You can tune in for our tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour.


Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

www.twitter.com/LeeRinger14

Trouble Brewing in the Tropics?

We're watching two areas in the the tropics today. The first disturbance located in the Caribbean south of Cuba is becoming better organized this morning and could become our next tropical depression or tropical storm later today or tomorrow. Most models take that system toward Central America.

The disturbance that is of more interest to our area is way out in the Atlantic - just under 900 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. While we don't expect any development of that disturbance today, conditions should become favorable for development as it moves to the west over the coming days. Some computer models, including the GFS shown below, forecast this becoming a tropical system and tracking toward the U.S. by late next week.

We should note this is just one run of one computer model, but the GFS has been fairly consistent over the last couple of days showing this storm approaching the U.S. As expected, with this more than a week away, it has not been consistent with exactly where the storm would go. A lot will likely change with its forecast over the coming days. No one should take this forecast and say a hurricane will definitely threaten the U.S. next week. It is just a note to pay attention to the tropics over the coming days.

We'll keep you posted with our tropical updates at :21 after the hour. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

A Break from the Heat?

It has been a very hot summer in the Carolinas including several days at or above 100. There are now signs we'll get a break from the extreme heat into much of next week. The extended outlook for the next 6 to 10 days from the Climate Prediction Center has near to below normal temperatures for most of the east coast including North Carolina.

We average highs in the upper 80s to near 90 through mid-August. At an early glance, I would anticipate highs in the mid and upper 80s for much of next week with morning lows in the 60s. That sure beats the upper 90s to near 100! Of course, errors in forecasting grow with time, so this long range forecast is not a guarantee. It is nice to say for now that we may get through next week with highs below 90!

The news isn't so good for the central U.S. where the summer has been even hotter than here. The above normal temperatures will likely continue there next week. Much of Texas including Dallas should continue their streak of 100+ degree days.


Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Will Emily Redevelop?

Tropical Storm Emily fell apart Thursday afternoon as it was tracking over Haiti. What remains of the system is just a disorganized area of low pressure that is tracking toward the Bahamas. While we don't expect the storm to redevelop today, some redevelopment is possible Saturday. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 60% chance it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm again.

Even if Emily redevelops, the storm is expected to stay offshore...
The only impacts in North Carolina would be the danger of rip currents at our beaches. Scattered afternoon storms are still possible this weekend, but those are unrelated to what is now the remnants of Emily.

For the latest on the tropics, tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour on News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Tropical Storm Emily - Thursday AM Update

Not a lot has changed with the thinking on the forecast for Tropical Storm Emily. As of this morning, the storm was just on the south side of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Emily has been nearly stationary for a while but is expected to move to the west-northwest to the northwest later today. That will take the storm across parts of Haiti and eastern Cuba tonight through early tomorrow. It could weaken some as it interacts with land and some wind shear.

Emily should track over the Bahamas into the weekend where conditions will be favorable for strengthening. The storm is then expected to turn to the north and eventually to the northeast Sunday.

A few models still show the storm tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico, but that appears to be an unlikely scenario at this time. Emily could become a category 1 hurricane as it tracks just of the Carolina coast. On this track, it will stay far enough offshore that even locations along the immediate coast will not see rain from the storm. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible this weekend, but are not related to Emily. The only impact from the storm in North Carolina may be from rough surf and dangerous rip currents.

We still must watch Emily carefully, if the storm were to track just a little closer to the coast, the forecast could still change significantly. Stay tuned to our tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour on News 14 Carolina for the latest.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Tropical Storm Emily - Wednesday AM Update

There have not been any big changes in Tropical Storm Emily since Tuesday evening. As of the 8am update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm still has sustained winds around 50mph and is expected to pass near or over the Dominican Republic and Haiti late today and tonight. Hispaniola is a mountainous island, which should weaken the storm. There are some cases where a storm falls apart all together, but most models do not show that happening at this time.

It will be important to monitor how well Emily stays together after passing over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Once it emerges over the Bahamas late Thursday and Friday, conditions will be favorable for strengthening. In fact, several models now show Emily becoming a hurricane off the southeast coast this weekend. The next tricky part of the forecast becomes the track Emily takes and how close it comes to the coast.
Most models now turn Emily to the northeast Sunday taking it off the Carolina coast, but not all of the models agree just how far offshore the storm will track. At this time, I do not anticipate any impacts from Emily in central North Carolina including the Triangle and Sandhills. Impacts along the coast will all depend on the exact track. A track close to the coast would bring rain and wind. If the storm stays farther offshore, the only impacts would be rough surf and rip currents. As with any tropical system, the track and intensity forecast could change over the coming days changing the forecast impacts on our area. If you have beach plans this weekend, I would not cancel them yet, just stay alert to the latest forecast.

Scattered afternoon storms unrelated to Emily are still possible this weekend.

Be sure to stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecast. We'll have tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour through the week.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
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Tracking Emily - Tuesday Morning Update

Tropical Storm Emily formed Monday evening and, so far, has maintained its strength as a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 40mph. It will likely be tough for the storm to strengthen all that much over the next couple of days. It may encounter shear and dry air that could limit strengthening today, and then it will track over or close to the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The island of Hispaniola is a mountainous region that sometimes rips apart tropical systems. Emily will likely at least weaken as it tracks over or close to Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings Emily over the Bahamas around the end of the week where it could strengthen as it tracks close to the southeast coast of the U.S. this weekend.

It's important to note there is uncertainty with the track and intensity forecast late this week and this weekend. While most models keep the storm just off the southeast coast, a few others actually take the system into the Gulf of Mexico.

There are even a couple models that weaken Emily all together. It is much too early to make a call if Emily will threaten North Carolina. Everyone from the Florida Gulf coast to the coast of the Carolinas should watch for the latest updates on Emily. Here in North Carolina, tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour for the latest forecast.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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Tracking Bret

Tropical Storm Bret developed this weekend near the Bahamas, but it is not expected to be a threat to the east coast. The storm will track off the Carolina coast through Wednesday when it should take a more easterly turn. This will take the storm into the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic where Bret will weaken late in the week.

At this point, coastal North Carolina could use the soaking rains from a weak tropical system to help alleviate extreme drought conditions. Unfortunately, Bret will stay far enough offshore that no rain is expected from the storm along the coast. The storm will kick up rough surf and create dangerous rip currents for beach goers through midweek.

For the latest forecast on Bret and more on the tropics, be sure to tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Enjoy the Weekend Weather; Extreme Heat Returns Next Week

Today is off to the great start with the coolest morning in a month! The low dropped to 60 at the Raleigh -Durham Airport this morning - just 2 degrees away from the record low for the date. Wilmington tied the record low with 64. This comes just days after record highs.

Unfortunately, the cooler summer weather won't stick around for too long. A heat wave will be building across the central U.S. from this weekend through early next week and will then build east around mid to late next week.

Some computer model forecasts show Wednesday through Friday next week could be just as hot or even hotter that the middle of this week when Raleigh hit 100 on Tuesday and Wilmington hit 102 on Wednesday. The heat index peaked between 105 and 109 both days in much of our area. The long range heat index forecast for next Thursday (July 21) shows the heat index could get as high as 110 to 115!

Keep in mind this is still several days away, but there are clear indications that the oppressive heat and humidity will return next week. Exactly how hot is still somewhat uncertain at this point. We'll keep you posted through the weekend and next week with our latest Weather on the Ones forecasts. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
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Your Guide to Stormfest 2011 - Raleigh

If you're a weather enthusiast, don't miss Stormfest 2011 Saturday, June 18 from 9am until 5pm at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences in Raleigh. This free event is a great opportunity for adults and children to learn more about the hurricane season and the recent severe weather in North Carolina. News 14 Carolina's Weather on the Ones team will be there along with other groups including the National Weather Service, Red Cross, SKYWARN, American Radio Emergency Services, State Medical Assistance Team, Urban Search and Rescue, State Veterinary Emergency Response, Wake County Emergency Management, Highway Patrol, National Guard, NC Baptist Men, WakeMed, Rex Healthcare, and local fire departments.

Stop by the News 14 Carolina/Weather on the Ones booth to pick up our severe weather safety guide plus other freebies we have to give away!

You may also be interested in talks that will be given through the day at Stormfest. Here's a schedule of events --

9:45am - Story time for kids - Windows on the World room


10:30am - Ask the Experts panel discussion with Lee Ringer and other local meteorologists - main auditorium

11:00am - What You Need to Know about Family Prepareness with the Red Cross - Windows on the World room

11:30am - Weather Whys for Kids with Pati Darak - Blue classroom (3rd floor)

12noon - Storm Chasing - Vortex II project with NC State University - Windows on the World room

12:30pm - North Carolina hurricane history with author Jay Barnes - main auditorium

1:15pm - Weather Whys for Kids with Joshua McKinney - Blue classroom (3rd floor)

2:30pm - Ask the Experts panel discussion with Gary Stephenson and other local meteorologists - main auditorium

3:30pm - What You Need to Know about Family Preparedness with the Red Cross - Windows on the World room

Stormfest 2011 - Wilmington

We're hoping to see you this Saturday at Wilmington's Stormfest 2011! Stormfest will be held from 10am until 4pm at the Cape Fear Museum. Admission to the museum is free for this special event! Stop by anytime from 10am until 4pm to learn more about our recent active severe weather season and the upcoming hurricane season. Chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson and meteorologist Lee Ringer will be on hand. Stop by our booth to pick up our new weather safety guide along with other freebies from News 14 Carolina and Time Warner Cable.

Other Stormfest participants include the Wilmington National Weather Service Office, the American Red Cross, New Hanover County Emergency Management, Pender County Emergency Management, the New Hanover County Library, the US Coast Guard, and other local TV stations.

Here are just some of the special events taking place during Stormfest:

10:30am to Noon - SkyWarn Storm Spotter Training with Josh Weiss of the Wilmington National Weather Service

Noon to 1:00pm - Ask the Expert: Meteorologists - Ask your weather questions to a panel of local TV meteorologists including News 14 Carolina's chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson

1pm to 2pm - Ask the Expert: Emergency Managers

2pm to 3pm - Hurricane Hazel: What if it Happened Today?

Door prizes will be given away through the day!

Parking for Stormfest is available at the Cape Fear Musuem. Additional parking is available at Jengo's Playhouse on the corner of Princess and 9th Street, at Norris, Kuske, and Tunstall Consulting Engineering on 9th Street, and at W.K. Dickson.

Raleigh's Stormfest will be head Saturday, June 18 at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences. More details to come...

Thursday's Storm Threat

Today we're watching a potent spring storm system marching across Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky. A severe weather outbreak is expected through the day in that part of the country with tornadoes likely. That same storm system will move across the Carolinas late Wednesday night through Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central and eastern North Carolina under a slight risk for severe weather Thursday -
A line of storms is expected to move through the Triad and Charlotte areas early Thursday morning possibly before daybreak. The storms will approach the Triangle and Sandhills from the morning commute through midday and then move across eastern North Carolina from late morning through afternoon. The greatest threat from any strong storms will come from damaging straight line winds, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina. We'll keep you updated with the latest forecast.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
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Strong Storms Possible Late Wednesday Night into Thursday

A potent storm system is moving across the southeastern US today and could bring strong storms to the Carolinas late tonight and tomorrow. Early this morning severe storms have been marching across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The rain and storms will be slow to move into our part of North Carolina leaving most of the daytime hours Wednesday with not much more than a few sprinkles or light showers.

Widespread rain will likely move into central and eastern North Carolina tonight. A few strong storms will be possible at that time. The threat for severe weather should mainly start around 10pm for the Triangle and Sandhills and continue through the overnight hours. The threat should come more toward early morning for coastal North Carolina but could start before daybreak. There is a slight chance that a few overnight storms may produce an isolated tornado. This is especially dangerous because of the overnight timing. Many people will be asleep and will not be aware of any warnings. Be sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio in standby mode tonight to alert you to any warnings in your area. Over 80% of tornado deaths in North Carolina occur at night.

Showers and storms will continue off and on through the day Thursday. The severe threat will come more from damaging wind gusts from any strong storms during the daytime. The rain and storms should come to an end by late afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts should range between 1 and 2 inches across much of our area.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates. We'll be here around the clock for the latest information through the day and night.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

More Rain Needed

Monday evening's showers and thunderstorms some much needed rain to the region, but more is needed.


Here's a look rainfall from Monday -

• Raleigh (NCSU): 1.10"
• Fayetteville: 0.80"
• Durham: 0.79"
• Wilmington: 0.77"
• Clayton: 0.75"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.74"
• Chapel Hill: 0.71"
• Cherry Point: 0.65"
• Jacksonville: 0.65"
• Raleigh-Durham Airport: 0.62"
• Goldsboro: 0.63"
• Whiteville: 0.63"
• Beaufort: 0.60"
• Oak Island: 0.54"
• Kure Beach: 0.47"

Even with Monday's rain, the rainfall deficit stands at 3.84" since January 1 and 4.50" since December 1 at the Raleigh-Durham Airport. As noted in the above drought map, coastal North Carolina is not currently experiencing drought conditions like central parts of the state. The rainfall deficit for Wilmington since January 1 now stands at just 1.02"

The recent dry conditions are concerning because the time period of October through April is critical to recharge water levels in lakes, rivers, and ground water. Ground water levels have been especially low in parts of central North Carolina.

Dry weather is in the forecast through the rest of the week. However, it appears rain will return Sunday. Amounts are still uncertain at this time, and is often the case heading into the spring months, we'll have to watch for strong storms. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecasts.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Chance for Storms Monday Evening

Today is starting unusually warm for the final day of February. Morning temperatures in the 60s should return to near 80 in many spots by afternoon. RDU should break its record high of 80 for the date. Wilmington should fall just shy of its record of 85 this afternoon. This warm air is building in ahead of an approaching storm system that has already produced severe storms early this morning in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Some of these storms could move our way through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Before the storms arrive, look for windy weather through the afternoon. Winds will be sustained from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph but could gust up to 40mph at times. A Wind Advisory is in effect through the afternoon for the Triangle and Sandhills.

Look for showers and strong storms to move across the mountains this afternoon. It appears the storms may lose some of their intensity east of the mountains, but a few strong storms are still possible here by evening. The greatest threat from any strong storms will come from damaging winds. The storms should move east of the Triangle and Sandhills by around midnight and will be moving off the coast by around 2-3am.

This system will certainly not provide a drought busting soaking rain that is needed in many parts of our region. Rainfall totals should range from between 0.1" and 0.3". Slightly higher totals are possible in stronger storms.

Cooler and dry weather will move in for tomorrow. After tonight, our next chance for rain isn't expected until the weekend.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Are We Done with Winter Weather?

After what has been an active and cold winter, a prolonged warm up is ahead for next week! Highs will likely reach the 60s for much of the week with 70s possible by late week. There are signs that the warm weather will stick around for much of the rest of February. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center both show warmer than warmer temperatures for the Carolinas --





Even though an early taste of spring is on the way, we can't say that we are totally done with the bitter cold of winter. After all, cold weather is not unheard of in North Carolina during March. We also can't say we are done with snow for the season. There are several examples of snow across the state during the month of March. In fact, it has snowed across much of North Carolina during the first two days of March the last two years:

Even larger snows have occurred later in March including an 8" snowfall just east of Raleigh March 24-25, 1983.

One of the largest snowfalls on record for northeastern North Carolina occurred March 1-2, 1981. That storm produced over 2 feet of snow in the northeast corner of the state, nearly a foot in parts of the Triangle, and over a foot just inland from the Crystal Coast.

The forecast for March 2011 is uncertain at this time. We'll wait and see if the cold returns. In the meantime, enjoy the spring-like temperatures over the next week or two!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Snow Chances for Early Thursday Morning

Light snow will spread into central North Carolina late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The precipitation may start during that time as light rain closer to the coast. Much of eastern North Carolina will transition to snow through the early morning hours.

Some accumulation is possible with the best chance for snow accumulations east and southeast of Raleigh. Across the Triangle, look for a trace (not even a dusting) to 1". Near I-95 from Fayetteville to Wilson and Goldsboro, 1-3" of snow is possible, but the higher end of that range may come just east of those areas. The highest snow totals may come from near Jacksonville Havelock, and Morehead City to Greenville and Elizabeth City where 2-5" is possible. Along the southeast coast near Wilmington, temperatures may hover just above freezing, so little to no accumulation is expected especially along the immediate southeast coast.

Any snow will end from the west to the east through the morning. The snow may taper off as early as around daybreak in the Triangle to late morning and midday along the coast. Skies will clear in the Triangle and Sandhills by afternoon with some limited sun by afternoon at the coast. Temperatures should warm to at least the low 40s in the afternoon.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Light Snow Possible Thursday Morning

Low pressure off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning may produce light snow in parts of our area. Precipitation totals look light at this time with the best chance of any accumulation coming near I-95 and locations to the east to the coast. This area including Fayetteville, Wilson, Goldsboro, Morehead City, and Wilmington could see anywhere from just a dusting to up to 2 inches in some spots. Closer to the Triangle any snowfall should be light enough to where little to no accumulation is expected, although just a dusting cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures early Thursday morning will drop to just below freezing around the Triangle and Sandhills to near freezing along the coast but should warm to at least the low 40s Thursday afternoon. Any snow should end by mid-morning across eastern North Carolina.

A change in the expected track and strength in low pressure off our coast could change our current forecast. Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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What We are Watching This Week

This week should be an interesting week of weather in North Carolina. It starts with low pressure tracking from near the Gulf coast this morning to off the Carolina coast later today and tonight. That will bring rain to the coast by this afternoon. The rain should spread inland through late afternoon and evening. Coastal areas should see about 1" of rain with lower amounts inland. The Triangle and Sandhills may see less than 0.25" with the possibility that areas in the northwest Triangle may not see much in the way of measurable rain. Clearing is expected by early Tuesday morning.

Somewhat cooler weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll watch another area of low pressure develop near the Gulf coast Wednesday and track off the Carolina coast by Thursday. Computer models have shown a lot of variability in the track and strength of this low in their forecasts since late last week. Some snow is possible in parts of the state late Wednesday night into Thursday, but amounts and locations of snowfall will all be determined by the track of the low. Models have been trending toward lighter amounts of precipitation. It is really too early to make any definite calls on the Thursday forecast. We'll have to continue to watch model trends and should have a better handle on Thursday's forecast by tomorrow and Wednesday.

For those of you tired of the cold winter weather, a warm up is on the way starting this weekend. Friday looks chilly, but temperatures should steadily warm through the weekend. Much of next week could feature temperatures above normal for a change.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Needed Rain

The new drought monitor released Thursday upgraded parts of central North Carolina to a severe drought. Fortunately, much needed rainfall will fall through today, tonight, and into early Saturday. Coastal North Carolina is the only part of the state that is not considered to be at least "abnormally dry." The coast will see the most rain with this storm system with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible. Central North Carolina including the Triangle and Sandhills should see between 0.5" and 1" with localized amounts over an inch around Fayetteville and east of the Triangle.

Today's rain certainly is a cold rain with temperatures holding in the 30s through the day around the Triangle and highs only in the mid 40s along the coast. Milder weather is ahead for the weekend as the rain ends. Highs should return to the 50s for Saturday and Sunday.

More rain chances are coming up next week. A few light showers are possible late Monday or early Tuesday, but the better rain chances look to come late Wednesday into Thursday. Computer models are showing a lot of uncertainty for the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday. It appears low pressure will track from near the Gulf coast to the Carolinas. At this point, it looks like the precipitation would be mainly rain for the Triangle and the Sandhills to the coast, but we'll have to watch the track of that system closely over the coming days.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Should We Trust the Groundhog's Forecast?

Happy Groundhog Day! It's the one day of year that many people listen to the weather forecast of a rodent. There are many different groundhogs making their predictions across the country today, but the best known groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil of Pennsylvania. Phil made his prediction around sunrise this morning when he did not see his shadow. According to folklore, that means an early spring. Punxsutawney Phil does not have a very good track record though with an accuracy rate of only 39%.

North Carolina's own groundhog, Sir Walter Wally has a better track record than Phil. He will make his forecast at noon today in Raleigh. It has been a cloudy start to Groundhog Day in Raleigh, but the clouds should break some around midday. Sir Walter Wally may just see his shadow predicting six more weeks of winter.

What do the long range forecasts from meteorologists say about the rest of winter? The February forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows equal chances of above normal and below normal temperatures in the Carolinas. While we have had a few warmer days in the last week, it will not stay warm. Below normal afternoon highs will return to the Carolinas tomorrow and Friday. After a few days into early next week of near to above normal temperatures, colder weather looks to return around the middle of next week.

It is tough to say if the cold winter weather we have experienced so far this winter will stick around for the next six weeks. It's best to take long range forecasts with a grain of salt anyway -- whether that forecast is from a groundhog or a human meteorologist. You may remember the long range forecast for this winter was for warmer than average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. That warmer part of that forecast has certainly not worked out. The drier forecast has been more accurate. Since December, Raleigh-Durham is 3.43" behind in rainfall. Wilmington was about 2" behind for January.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Mainly Rain for Tuesday into Wednesday

Low pressure is still set to track from near the Gulf coast today to near the Carolina coast tonight and tomorrow. This will spread mostly rain across North Carolina by this afternoon and this evening. Rain will continue into the night when a few thunderstorms are possible along the immediate coast.

Occasional rain showers are expected through Wednesday. The rain will change to a heavy wet snow for the North Carolina mountains by Wednesday morning. Areas east of the mountains stand very little chance to see accumulating snow. As the precipitation ends, the northwest Piedmont (northwest of Raleigh and the Triangle) may see a quick burst of snow. If the snow comes down heavy enough, a quick dusting on grassy surfaces is possible in the late afternoon from Greensboro to Roxboro to Oxford and Henderson. There is just a slight chance the Triangle may see a little snow mix in with the rain as the precipitation ends Wednesday afternoon and evening, but that chance appears very small right now.

The rain will be a welcome sight especially in central North Carolina where moderate drought conditions are building across the region. However, rain totals in the central parts of the state may not be as high as first thought yesterday...

It now appears the Triangle and Sandhills will see between 0.5" and 1" of rain while coastal locations could see between 1-2" with locally higher amounts.

Check in with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for updates on the forecast!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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Rain by Late Tuesday; What about Wednesday?

Low pressure tracking from near the Gulf coast to near the Carolina coast (or just inland from the Carolina coast) will bring mainly rain to our part of North Carolina for Tuesday into Wednesday. Ever since last week, there was a lot of uncertainty on whether or not this storm would produce snow. While this storm will produce mainly rain in our area, there is still the possibility for a change to some snow around the Triangle to the north and west before ending Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Look for rain to spread across the the Sandhills and coastal areas through Tuesday afternoon with the rain reaching the Triangle by late afternoon and evening. A few light showers are possible in eastern North Carolina mainly near the coast Monday night and early Tuesday morning associated with a coastal front, but the higher rain chance will come by late day Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Precipitation will continue through Tuesday night as all rain across the region. A few thunderstorms may develop right along the coast late Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain showers will continue into Wednesday. Locations south and east of Raleigh should see the precipitation end by late afternoon and evening as rain. From the Triangle to the north and west, it is possible the rain could change to snow for ending. A narrow band of heavy wet snow may fall for a couple to a few hours with the passage of an upper level low pressure system. The better chance for this may come just north and west of the Triangle. A slight change in the track in the upper level low could bring some accumulating snow over the Triangle late Wednesday or take it northwest of the Triangle. By tomorrow, we should have a better idea on what areas may see a change over to snow, but we may not be fully certain until the upper low is actually tracking over the Carolinas Wednesday. The best chance to see accumulating snow Wednesday in North Carolina will be in the higher elevations of the mountains.

Fortunately, this system will bring some much needed rain to our area. Much of central and eastern North Carolina should see between 1-2" of rain with some locally heavier amounts possible near the coast.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates on the forecast.


Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Sunday AM Update

The Crystal Coast and parts of the Outer Banks were surprised with the amount of snow they received yesterday. Beaufort, Emerald Isle, and Havelock all reported 7" of snow! Locations along the southeast coast saw much less snow with only 0.1" reported in Wilmington.

Now our attention turns to the storm system expected to impact North Carolina Tuesday into Wednesday. While there is still uncertainty with this storm, it does appear precipitation will start as rain Tuesday for the Triangle and Sandhills and continue as rain into Tuesday night. By early Wednesday. the rain could change to snow for areas just north and west of the Triangle. The Triangle could be very close to the fine line between an area that will see all rain and the area that could change over to snow. Heavy snow is possible during this time period in the North Carolina mountains and foothills. Coastal areas can expect all rain for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Keep in mind the track and strength of low pressure that will move from the the Gulf Coast to near the Carolina coast will ultimately determine the type and amount of precipitation. A slight change in this track could easily create a big change in the forecast.

Just a cold rain is certainly a possibility for much of our area, but a change over to snow is also still a possibility in some locations. We should have better handle on the forecast by Monday. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest in our Weather on the Ones updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Coastal Snow - Saturday

Just a quick update for Saturday evening... heavier snow than expected set up along the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon. As of this posting just before 6pm, we had reports of as much as 7" of snow in Havelock and Emerald Isle and 5" in Morehead City. The snow will taper off along the Crystal Coast into the evening. For more on the latest weather conditions and forecast, check in with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina.

Today's snow along the Crystal Coast just points out how difficult winter weather forecasting is in North Carolina. Low pressure has stayed right off the coast with the precipitation just grazing the coast. However that precipitation just grazing the coast has been enough to produce up to 7" of snow so far in some spots!

Lee Ringer
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Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Saturday AM Update

Parts of the immediate North Carolina coastline should see some light snow today with the best chance coming during the afternoon and evening. As we have discussed here on the blog over the last couple of days, most of the precipitation with this low pressure should stay offshore. However, some precipitation may just graze the coast and that precipitation should fall as snow. Snowfall amounts should be relatively light with anywhere from a trace to 2" possible close to the immediate coast. I would expect the lighter end of that range along the Cape Fear coast (Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender Counties) with perhaps the higher end of that range along coastal Onslow County, Carteret County, and the southern Outer Banks.

Then our attention turns to next week when several computer models have advertised a winter storm impacting parts of North Carolina from Tuesday into Wednesday. The exact track of this low pressure will determine what parts of the state will see snow and what parts will see rain. Coastal areas will more than likely see mainly rain out of this storm, but the Triangle and Sandhills could fall very close to the rain/snow line. It is still too early to say with any certainty if the Triangle and Sandhills would see mainly snow, mainly rain, or a mix of the two. This morning's hazardous weather outlook from Raleigh's National Weather Service Forecast Office has a good summary of what is possible during that time period:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.

..SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR OUR REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A STORM TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

IF THIS TRACK DEVIATES MORE INLAND... THEN LESS OF A WINTER STORM IMPACT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT. DETAILS OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM CONTINUE TO VARY. IT WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST CAN BE FINE TUNED.

STAY TUNED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DETAILS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

We'll keep you posted with the latest forecast with our Weather on the Ones updates on News 14 Carolina!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Friday AM Update

Computer models appear to be in better agreement this morning that low pressure will track up the Carolina coast during the early to middle part of next week bringing snow and rain to North Carolina. Some areas will see just rain, others will see all snow, and other may see a mix of snow to rain to snow.

Since we are still several days away, it is still much too early to make a call on what locations in the state could see significant snow and what areas would see just a cold rain. Based on the latest model data this morning, the Triangle would fall very close to the rain/snow line with significant snows possible to the west especially in the foothills and mountains. However, that all depends on the exact track of the low pressure. If the track changes more to the east, more significant snow would be possible toward the Triangle and even the Sandhills. At the same time, a more inland or westerly track would mean just rain for those areas. It appears the coast would mainly see just rain.

I caution that all of this is subject to change. Nailing down the exact track of low pressure that hasn't even developed yet is pretty much impossible at this point. We are still several days away and the models don't fully have a handle on how this storm system will evolve. Keep an eye on the forecast especially for Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday.

On another note, before we get to next week, low pressure will develop off the southeast coast Saturday. It should stay far enough offshore that any precipitation with that low will be out to sea. There is just a slight chance that the southern Outer Banks and Crystal Coast could see a few flurries or light snow showers Saturday evening.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecast!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Is More Winter Weather on the Way?

It has been quite the winter so far in the Carolinas, and we're only about half way through the season! After a brief warm up during the middle of this week, colder temperatures will return for the weekend, and the chance for winter precipitation could return by early next week.

Before we get to next week though, we'll have to keep an eye on low pressure that will develop off the southeast coast Saturday. This low should stay far enough offshore to keep most precipitation offshore. However, it is possible that the low tracks a little closer to the coast spreading snow flurries or light snow showers across coastal areas late Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening. The Triangle and Sandhills will stay dry with no precipitation over the weekend.

Then our attention turns to Monday into Tuesday of next week. Cold air will be in place over central North Carolina as low pressure tracks from near the Gulf coast to off the Carolina coast. Since this is still several days away, details with this system are still very uncertain and computer models are not in full agreement with exactly how this weather system will set up. It does appear precipitation will start by late Monday across the Sandhills and Triangle as some type of winter precipitation - either snow or a wintry mix. The precipitation may change to a cold rain into Tuesday in the Sandhills. The Triangle may be right on the dividing line between an area that sees mainly winter precipitation and an area that changes to a cold rain. At this time, it appears coastal areas would mainly just see rain showers. Precipitation amounts are uncertain at this point, so it's too early to say if this will just be a nuisance event or a more significant event.

As with the past winter systems this season, details in the forecast should become clearer over the coming days. Stay tuned for our Weather on the Ones updates for the latest!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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January 10-11, 2011 Snowfall

Snowfall totals from Monday-Tuesday, January 10-11, 2010:

• Hampstead: 7.0"
• Laurinburg: 7.0"
• Rocky Point: 6.0"
• Whiteville: 5.5"
• Lumberton: 5.0"
• Fayetteville: 5.0"
• Raeford: 5.0"
• Southern Pines: 5.0"
• Elizabethtown: 5.0"
• Burgaw: 4.0"
• Kenansville: 4.0"
• Havelock: 4.0"
• Topsail Beach: 4.0"
• Wilmington: 3.8"
• Vander: 3.5"
• Morehead City: 3.0"
• Anderson Creek: 2.2"
• Atlantic Beach: 1.5"
• New Bern: 1.5"
• Hillsborough: 1.1"
• Louisburg: 1.0"
• Mount Olive: 1.0"
• Newton Grove: 1.0"
• Roxboro: 1.0"
• Sanford: 1.0"
• Siler City: 1.0"
• Wrightsville Beach: 1.0"
• Creedmoor: 0.5"
• Durham: 0.5"
• Burlington: 0.5"
• Chapel Hill: 0.2"
• Raleigh: 0.2"
• Wilson: Trace

Ice Accumulation from January 10-11, 2010:

• Holly Springs: 0.2"
• Laurinburg: 0.2"
• Fayetteville: 0.2"
• Raeford: 0.2"
• Louisburg: 0.15"
• Southern Pines: 0.15"
• Oxford: 0.1"
• Raleigh: 0.1"
• Wilson: 0.1"
• Goldsboro: 0.05"
  

Tracking Winter Weather -- Sunday Morning Update

A storm system will track across the southeast into the new week spreading snow and ice across parts of the southeast including North Carolina. The details of the storm are becoming more clear for North Carolina, and it does not appear this will be a repeat of the post-Christmas snow. While some snow is possible with this storm, sleet and freezing rain could be the bigger issue for our region. Light snow is expected to spread into parts of the state near Charlotte and the NC/SC border around daybreak Monday. Because of dry air across much of central North Carolina, it will take a while for the precipitation to track north. Light snow will eventually spread from the southwest to northeast through Monday afternoon. By Monday evening, that precipitation will change to more of a wintry mix.

Based on the latest weather data, here's my thinking of what different regions of our coverage area can expect:

Triangle
Light snow will spread across the Triangle Monday afternoon or evening before changing to sleet then freezing rain or freezing drizzle Monday night. Precipitation will taper off Tuesday morning to around midday Tuesday. Around 1-2" of snow is possible before the change over to an icy mix. These accumulations will be slightly higher southwest of Raleigh and lower northeast of Raleigh. The snow accumulation will depend on the start time of the precipitation in the area. A later start time would mean less snow and an earlier start time would mean more snow accumulation. On top of any snow accumulation, 0.1" to 0.25" of ice accumulation is possible. This will create dangerous travel conditions Monday night and Tuesday morning. If ice accumulation reaches 0.25" or higher, look for power outages.

Sandhills
Light snow will spread across the Sandhills Monday morning and will then change to an icy mix by late Monday afternoon or evening. Snow accumulations of 1-4" is possible with the higher totals west of Fayetteville. Ice accumulation up to 0.25" is possible. Look for dangerous travel conditions developing Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday. If ice accumulation reaches 0.25" or higher, power outages will become a problem.

Wilson/Goldsboro
Some light snow is possible by late Monday afternoon or evening. Snow accumulation of a trace to an inch is possible. Any light snow will change to sleet and then freezing rain Monday evening and Monday night before ending Tuesday morning to around midday Tuesday. Ice accumulation of 0.1" to 0.25" is possible. Look for dangerous travel conditions Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Coastal viewing area
Light snow or a wintry mix will spread toward the southeast coast by late morning to early afternoon Monday. The precipitation will slowly build to the north through the afternoon and evening. A changeover to rain is expected by Monday evening. Most locations along the immediate coast will likely not see any accumulation as those locations will likely see mainly a cold rain. Areas inland from the coast across Columbus, Bladen, and Duplin County could see a dusting to 1" of snow/sleet accumulation with a light glazing of ice before changing to rain Monday night.

Keep in mind a change in track or intensity of this storm system could change the weather expected in your area. Winter weather forecasting is difficult in North Carolina, and changes in the forecast are still possible. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest Weather on the Ones updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Snow for Friday Night, More Snow and Ice for Early Next Week

Lots of winter weather to talk about today! I'll start with a disturbance that will produce a band of snow across central North Carolina tonight. This disturbance will create heavier accumulations in the mountains, but a band of a dusting to 2" is possible across the Piedmont to northeastern North Carolina. This includes areas around the Triangle.

Tonight's snow could begin as early as late afternoon. If that happens, the precipitation would start as light rain then mix with and change to snow. Accumulations would likely be mainly on grassy surfaces but some slush may build up on roads. Locations south of the Triangle near Fayetteville can look for mainly a light rain possibly mixed with some snow as the precipitation ends. Little to no accumulation is expected in the Fayetteville area. Most of the precipitation should taper off around midnight give or take an hour or two.

Temperatures will hover in the mid 30s as the precipitation falls and then fall below freezing as the precipitation ends. Lows in the upper 20s to near 30 are expected by daybreak Saturday morning in the Triangle and Sandhills. This could create issues with black ice Saturday morning even in areas that see mainly a light rain.

For our coastal viewers, tonight's band of precipitation will mainly miss our area to the north and northwest. A few light sprinkles cannot be ruled out late tonight.

This weekend our attention then turns to the potential for a more significant winter weather system for Monday through Tuesday of next week....

Low pressure along the Gulf coast Sunday night and Monday morning will track to off the North Carolina coast by Tuesday morning. Cold air will be in place across North Carolina as precipitation spreads across the state Monday afternoon. This looks to begin as snow in the Triangle and Sandhills, but I am growing more concerned that the snow will change to sleet and freezing rain Monday night or early Tuesday morning. If that happens, it appears there would be enough icing for significant travel problems and power outages. Keep in mind that is just one scenario with this system at this point.

The forecast remains even more uncertain for early next week in coastal North Carolina. Precipitation looks certain with some rain, but that rain may change to a wintry mix for a period of time.

Since we are still a few days away, a lot could still change with the forecast for next week. It is still too early to speculate on too many specifics about this storm. Through the weekend, we should have a better idea on how all of this will come together. Check in with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina through the weekend for the latest.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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A Winter Storm for Early Next Week?

We're watching the potential for a winter storm to impact the Carolinas early next week. Computer forecast models have been somewhat consistent showing low pressure tracking from near the Gulf coast to off the Carolina coast. The exact timing is still uncertain at this point, but from Monday into Tuesday appears to be the time period this storm system would affect our area. Cold air would be in place for much of our area at that time supporting the chance for wintry precipitation.

Since we are still several days away from early next week, I would caution that it is too early to forecast any details with this storm. Some models are forecasting accumulating snow across much of North Carolina with some indications of sleet and freezing rain causing problems in a narrow band across the state. Locations closer to the coast may see more of a cold rain. Again, this is all very preliminary at this point and the forecast will likely change some between now and next week.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates through the rest of the week and the weekend.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Cold January?

The first couple days of 2011 were much milder than most of December as temperatures reached the 60s in most of our area. Wilmington even hit 70 on New Years Day.


For most of this week, temperatures will return closer to normal for the first week of January, but even colder weather could be on the way by next week. Most long range indications show colder weather moving in for the upcoming weekend with colder than normal weather sticking around for much of next week. The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook shows colder than normal weather for much of the US --

The long range outlook for January now also calls for a colder than normal January for the Carolinas...

Will January be just as cold or colder than our very cold December? Only time will tell, but it does appear this winter will not be warmer than normal as previously forecast in the fall.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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