Friday, December 21, 2007

Keep the umbrella handy this weekend!

Hello there

Cloudy skies are persisting over eastern North Carolina today as an upper level low pressure system crosses to our south. Fortunately, we're able to tap into some of the rain associated with it! Friday's system is expected to bring less than a half inch of rain to most reas of our state, with isolated neighborhoods (especially aroung Fayetteville , Lumberton and southeastern NC)seeing approximately three-quarters of an inch.

Saturday we'll have a change in the upper air weather pattern which will contribute to us warming up a little for the weekend. We'll still have cloudy skies with drizzle or light showers possible saturday, and an approaching cold front sunday will bring another opportunity for measurable rain Sunday.
Highs Saturday are expected to range from the mid to upper 50s in the Triangle and near 60 for the Sandhills and Down East of I-95 (Wilson / Goldsboro areas).

Enjoy the rain and have a good weekend

Pati Darak
Weather on the Ones Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Unsettled weather through the holiday

Hello

At this time yesterday, we were talking about a line of showers that crossed the state from morning rush through early afternoon. That weak cold front (with the help of some upper level enhancement) only brought less than one-tenth of an inch to our parched state.
The weekly drought status map will be revised this morning and it may show some improvement as a result of last weekends rain but by no means will it show any significant changes.
We enter a period of some unsettled weather where we will have on-again, off-again changes for a little precipitation. The first chance is Thusrday night as a storm tracks along the gulf coast eastward through Georgia/South Carolina. Much of the rain associated with it will stay to the south and maybe fall also along the NC/SC border. however, its close by, so we cannot rule out the possibilty of some hit-and-miss overnight showers throughout the state through Friday morning.

Next chance for rain is over the weekend. We're watching the forecast maps that are keeping a storm over the Great Lakes area. Its projected to swing a cold front over NC Sunday but there is once again not a lot of moisture set to move in with this. As its still a few days out, we'll continue to monitor this for you.

Tuesday also has a chance of showers, so don't let Santa or his elves move that umbrella on you when they make their visit!

Have a great Thursday.
Pati Darak
Weather on the Ones Meteorologist,
News 14 Carolina

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Sprinkles on & off today & Thursday, Rain still possible Saturday/Sunday

Hello

Looks like a couple of days of on and off sprinkles for our area. This morning we have a little weak cold front and a line of very light precipitation move through the area. There had been a brief period of flurries in Charlotte before a changeover to light rain, and it appears that it will just bring some rain sprinkles to the Triangle, Sandhills and areas down east of I-95 this morning and early afternoon.
This system clears out after the evening drive tonight, and we develop mostly clear skies overnight with lows in the lower 30s.
Tomorrow we watch as another storm moves eastward along the Gulf coast, it appears right now (and has been fairly consistent with the weather prediction models) that it will pass to our south late Thursday and early Friday, taking its measurable rain chances with it to our south. We may see some sprinkles, but that looks to be about it once again.

However, there is hope, as over the weekend we'll see a pretty good storm from the Great Lakes sweep a cold front over the east coast, and we could see some measurable rain with that later Saturday into Sunday.
Plans for Monday? You should be okay. We're expecting partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 50s.

Have a great day!
Pati Darak,
Weather on the Ones Meteorologist,
News 14 Carolina

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Coldest morning of the week!

Good morning!


High pressure, clear skies, dry airmass...all added up to a very cold morning!
temperatures in the 20s were far below normal this morning, but not a record.

Our high will shift eastward today, so winds will come in at a light clip from the south. We're also expecting a few clouds later this afternoon and evening from time to time on the backside of this high. Those clouds may help contribute to us having closer to average temperatures as we wake up tomorrow morning (lower 30s).

Wednesday a weak cold front crosses the state but with our dry atmosphere and nothing steering moisture our way, we will not see any rainfall from this. Our main clue of this front's passage will be some clouds overhead.
Not that everyone will be dry Wednesday; there is also a weak disturbance off our coast ( an inverted trough) that will extend northward from Florida and that might trigger a shower along the coast / outer banks early in the day.

Extreme southern NC may see a chance for a shower Thursday as another low skirts along the Gulf Coast, however, again, the models are keeping the rain associated with that system to the south, so Thursday may just be a cloudy day in the southern Sandhills and southeastern NC.

So, rain? Anytime soon?
We look to the weekend for that. A pretty good storm that hit the West Coast for the first part of our week will pull through the Midwest and rotate over the Great Lakes by Monday. A cold front associated with that is expected to swing through NC Sunday, so there's a chance late saturday and into Sunday for a little rain.

Have a good Tuesday.

Pati Darak,
Weather on the Ones Meteorologist,
News 14 Carolina

Monday, December 17, 2007

Winds will subside today, travel weather through Tuesday iffy for Northeast and Northwest U.S.

Good morning!

We have a rather chilly start to the work week, with starting-out temperatures near 30 and wind chills in the 20s. At least winds will subside later today, but a number of people had brief power outages Sunday due to the gusty winds in the area.
Good news is, the storm that brought us the rain over the weekend and the windy weather continues to move northeast. Bad news, if you're travelling to the Northeast over the next couple of days, be prepared for many many delays at the airports for departures and arrivals. Many flights were cancelled or delayed in that area.

If your plans are taking you to the Pacific northwest this week, especially through wednesday, you may also want to check ahead, as a powerful colf front is expected to make its way onshore Tuesday and cause problems from southern Washington state southward to Sacramento.

As for right here at home, expect dry weather for the next few days. We'll see some passing clouds Tuesday, but the weather will remain dry. Our next chance for some showers will be late Thursday.

Have a great day and keep warm!

Pati Darak
Weather on the Ones Meteorologist,
News 14 Carolina

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Wind Advisory Sunday into early Monday

Hello, and Happy Sunday!

From record-breaking warm weather, to rain to wind..this has been one interesting week in North Carolina! Most of saturday's rain fell from Fayetteville northward through the Triangle to the Henderson area and eastward to the coast. (see totals from the National weather service at the end of this posting).

The news today...Wind! The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory throughout the day today into early monday morning (about 4am). Sustained winds from the west will be in the range of 20-35mph with gusts that could be as high as 40-50mph. Even though we have highs ranging from 50 to the mid 50s, it will feel colder thanks to those winds.
If you have anything that needs to anchored down outside (even the trash bin could topple, keep that in mind!)make sure its done before you head out today!

Skies will clear later today, and we'll have mostly clear skies tonight. Still windy with lows near 30, and tomorrow our winds diminish and sunshine increases. Highs for the start of your work week will be in the upper 40s.

For a complete look at your Weather on the Ones forecast (including the big travel weekend coming up!) click on our website:
http://news14.com/content/weather/7day_forecast/Default.aspx

Rain totals as of this morning (courtesy National Weather service Raleigh office):

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR NC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
718 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2007

.B RDU 1216 DH12/TX/TN/PP
:
: HIGH YESTERDAY / LOW PAST 12 HOURS / PCPN PAST 24 HOURS
:
: 24 HR
: ID HIGH LOW PCPN REMARKS
:ASHEVILLE : AVL 46 / 36 / 0.73 :
:CHARLOTTE : CLT 53 / 35 / 1.19 :
:ELIZABETH CITY : ECG 61 / 51 / 1.33 :
:NEW BERN : EWN 56 / 51 / 1.37 :
:FAYETTEVILLE : FAY 51 / 42 / 1.57 :
:GREENSBORO : GSO 47 / 34 / 0.53 :
:HICKORY : HKY 47 / 34 / 0.46 :
:CAPE HATTERAS : HSE 66 / 61 / 1.65 :
:WILMINGTON : ILM 58 / 51 / 1.82 :
:WINSTON-SALEM : INT 47 / M / M :
:LUMBERTON : LBT 56 / 43 / 1.19 :
:BEAUFORT : MRH 70 / 57 / 4.27 :
:RALEIGH-DURHAM : RDU 47 / 35 / 1.19 :
:ROCKY MT-WILSON : RWI 46 / 40 / 1.79 :
:ROANOKE RAPIDS : RZZ 44 / 38 / 0.93 :
:
: T = TRACE / M = MISSING



Have a great Sunday!
Pati Darak,
Meteorologist, News 14 Carolina

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Chance for Rain Still Holding for This Weekend

Good Saturday to you

Clouds have moved in for the start of the weekend and to our west, another round of wintry weather passing through the central United States. Winter weather advisories/watches/warnings are in place from Missouri through Illinois, Michigan and Indiana and Ohio through the Northeastern US.
We will have periods of light rain developing into the afternoon, and heavier rain forecast for tonight into tomorrow morning. In addition, there is a possibility for a thunderstorm along and east of I-95 which could bring localized gusty winds. We're expecting about (from west to east through central and eastern NC) an inch to an inch and a quarter from this system. By no means a drought buster but, at this point with the exceptional drought which continues to expand throughout the state, anything is helpful.

Sunday will see clearing by afternoon from west to east as a cold front swings across our state. We'll have had steady to slowly rising temperatures late Saturday night ahead of this front (low to mid 50s Triangle and Sandhills, mid 50s and milder Down East), but after the front passes Sunday morning, our temperatures will drop rather quickly and those gusty winds will create some challenging conditions for instance if you're driving a high-profile vehicle or have outdoor decorations or items that you've not anchored down or stored away for the day. West winds will move in at 20-25 mph with gusts near 40mph.


Monday through mid-week will feature some calmer weather with near seasonable temperatures. For a view of your weather on the Ones 7-day forecast, click on this link:
http://news14.com/content/weather/Default.aspx

And remember, you can see your Weather on the Ones forecast throughout the day and night at News 14!

Have a good Saturday.

Pati Darak
Meteorologist, News 14 Carolina

Friday, December 14, 2007

Wet Saturday, Windy Sunday

Hello there
This is my first posting to the Weather on the Ones blog, and I get to talk about a lot!

First of all, if you have any decorations outside of your home, you may want to anchor them down this evening or first thing saturday, as Sunday looks to be a rather windy day!

Lets start with friday evening. we have a storm system which is coming together over the southern Plains states which will move easteward tonight into saturday.
we'll see clouds building in ahead of this storm on saturday morning, and don't be suprised to see light rain here and there by early saturday afternoon.
Saturday night into Sunday morning are our better chances for some measureable rain. we could see about an inch to some localized areas getting an inch and a half to 2 inches from this system once its all said and done. Rain clears out from west to east sunday, so if you have morning plans in pittsboro, you may be able to leave your umbrella on the car by lunchtime, but if you live downeast of I-95, it may take until the afternoon before the rain ceases.
After the rain, however, comes the wind!
This storm system will rapidly increase in strength as it makes a beeline to the New York and the northeast and in its wake we'll feel it with winds that could be in the 20 mph range and gusts of 35-40 mph! That inflatable snowglobe in the front yard might be taking a trip down your street if you don't watch out.
Whats the encore after that kind of weather? a calmer work week, but a cooler one as well.
Check out your weather on the Ones forecast while you're here at http://www.news14.com/
Have a wonderful weekend!

Taking a Break...

I'm taking a break from the blog for a few days as I enjoy some time off just before the holidays. I'll resume my posts by the end of the month Hope you'l check back then! As always, for your latest forecast, count on Weather on the Ones every 10 minutes only on News 14 Carolina!

Four Straight Records This Week

Temperatures warmed just a little more than expected Thursday afternoon giving us our fourth consecutive day with a record high at the Raleigh-Durham Airport. Yesterday's high of 76 just did break the old record of 75 set in 1956.

Today's record stands at 73 and should be safe in the record books for one more year. Although it will be mild today with temperatures in the 60s, it won't be as warm as earlier this week. The normal high temperature this time of year is around 53.

Cooler and wet weather is on the way this weekend...

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Third Straight Record

Wednesday marked the third straight day for breaking record highs at the Raleigh-Durham Airport. Yesterday's high of 79 broke the old record of 74 set in 1996.

It appears that our record breaking streak will come to an end today, but we may get close. The record for December 13 is 75. I'm currently forecasting 71 for a high today. Today's temperatures are a tough call. During the late night and early morning hours we had a "backdoor" front move into the state from the north. That front should lift back to the north as a warm front during the day. That will make for a wide range in temperatures this afternoon. Areas around Fayetteville should easily warm into the mid 70s and some upper 70s are even possible in the Sandhills. The Triangle should get close to 70 or the low 70s while areas near Oxford and Henderson closer to the Virginia border will only see highs in the mid 60s.

It will be somewhat cooler for Friday with highs in the mid 60s. That's still warm compared to the mid 50s that are normal for this time of year!

Cooler weather along with rain is on the way for the weekend. Late Saturday into Saturday night still looks like the best chance for rain that we have seen in some time. Stay tuned for details....

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Midwest Ice Storm

Click here for the National Weather Service's recap of this week's Midwest ice storm.

Breaking Records

For the second straight day, we broke the record high in the Triangle on Tuesday. The high of 74 at RDU yesterday broke the old record of 72 set in 1971. Areas to the south of Raleigh were even warmer, but just northeast of the Triangle, a northeasterly component to the wind kept things cooler. Here's a look at the range of high temperatures around the region from Tuesday:
  • Southern Pines: 81
  • Fayetteville: 80
  • Laurinburg-Maxton: 80
  • Erwin: 79
  • Lumberton: 79
  • Smithfield: 79
  • Goldsboro: 77
  • Chapel Hill: 75
  • RDU Airport: 74
  • NCSU-Raleigh: 72
  • Henderson-Oxford: 68
  • Louisburg: 63
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 59
  • Roanoke Rapids: 56

Everyone in our area will see warm temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. We expect to break another record high today. The record currently stands at 76 at RDU. This should be the last day for setting record highs this week as somewhat cooler weather is expected for the rest of the week.

Look for a wide range in temperatures again tomorrow as a front slips into the northern part of the state Thursday morning. That will keep temperatures in the 50s to near 60 near the Virginia border. The Triangle should see highs in the mid to upper 60s while the Sandhills warm into the mid 70s.

Big changes look to be on the way for the weekend which should include a good chance for rain on Saturday long with much colder temperatures. Stay tuned for details....

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Wild December Weather

There's a lot to talk about when it comes to the weather today from record highs to tropical systems to a crippling ice storm!

I'll start here at home where we set yet another record for the year yesterday. The high temperature reached 81 at RDU. That not only broke Monday's old record of 76 set in 1972, it also set a new all time record high for December. Since records have been kept in the Raleigh area, the warmest December temperature was 80 on December 6 and 7, 1998. Records highs for the date were also set yesterday in Charlotte, Greensboro, Wilmington, and Asheville.

And if you thought the 80s in the Carolinas was unusual for December, take a look at this....

That is Subtropical Storm Olga that developed late Monday night near Puerto Rico. The system should move over Hispanola over the next 24 hours where it will weaken to a subtropical depression.The official hurricane season ended on the last day of November, but its not unheard of to have a weak named storm in December. It is unusual though.

Highs in the 80s and tropical system aren't the usual topic of conversation when it comes to the weather in the December. You may think more of winter weather and ice storms. Well, we've got that to talk about too! Just ask the folks in the Midwest.


A major ice storm has taken its toll on folks from Oklahoma to Kansas to Missouri and now in Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I read one report this morning that said one of every three people in Oklahoma were without power this morning. Keep in mind Oklahoma isn't the only state affected.


The wintry weather will continue to spread across the Midwest and across the Great Lakes region today while we have another spring like day in the Carolinas. We will likely shatter record highs here today and tomorrow.

The crazy December weather may not be over with by the end of the week.... A couple of computer models are now hinting at a major storm taking shape this weekend for the east coast.


The above map is a forecast for late Saturday night/early Sunday morning from the GFS model. If this storm does develop, it could bring needed rain our way for Saturday, but it could pose a problem if your traveling toward the northeast late Saturday and Sunday. A lot could and probably will change with this potential system. We'll keep you posted...

Monday, December 10, 2007

Something Brewing in the Tropics?


With temperatures in the 70s today in the Carolinas, it apperas Mother Nature is still trying to hold on to fall weather, at least around here. That may be in the same story in the tropics where the National Hurricane Center is closely watching a disturbance near Puerto Rico. Here's a statement released on the system this morning --

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMOVED WELL TOTHE NORTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
$$

Record Warmth

What a difference just a few days make! Friday morning, a light wintry mix was causing headaches for some Triangle commuters. Fast forward to Monday morning and we're looking at record high temperatures for the next few days. Afternoon highs should top out in the mid to upper 70s through at least Wednesday.

Here's a look at the records to watch this week:
  • Monday: 76 in 1972
  • Tuesday: 72 in 1971
  • Wednesday: 74 in 1996

Friday, December 07, 2007

Light Wintry Mix Causes a Big Mess

What a morning.... an upper level disturbance that was expected to pass to our north just clipped through North Carolina this morning. The southern end of that disturbance was just enough to produce some light precipitation. Typically, that wouldn't be that big of an issue. Unfortunately, this morning's temperatures were at or just below freezing as that disturbance moved through. That produced light sleet and light freezing rain, and that was enough to create a few slick spots on some area roadways. If you were caught on I-40 in Johnston County, you know those few slick spots caused big problems. You can read more about those problems on news14.com or catch our news updates on News 14 Carolina.

If you have any pictures from this morning's mess, you can send them our way by e-mailing them to weather@news14.com.

Thursday, December 06, 2007

A Few Flakes

Were you one of the lucky few to see snow flakes Wednesday? There were some reports of snow flurries around the Triangle and to the north Wednesday morning. RDU recorded a trace of snow making it the first time snow had been seen on December 5th at the airport since weather records have been kept there.

Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Breezy Monday

Breezy conditions developed across North Carolina Monday afternoon after a cold front swept through the state. Here's a look at peak wind gusts from around the state as reported by the State Climate Office of North Carolina:
  • Hendersonville: 54mph
  • Boone: 46mph
  • Beaufort: 38mph
  • Chapel Hill: 37mph
  • Wilmington: 37mph
  • Roanoke Rapids: 36mph
  • Oxford: 35mph
  • Hatteras: 32mph
  • Lumberton: 32mph
  • RDU: 32mph
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 32mph
  • Greensboro: 31mph
  • Maxton: 31mph
  • Southern Pines: 31mph
  • Jacksonville: 28mph
  • Pope AFB: 28mph
  • Burlington: 27mph
  • Louisburg: 24mph

Monday, December 03, 2007

A Few Early Morning Showers

A front passing through North Carolina today brought a few early morning showers to the state. Unfortunately, the showers were brief and very light. Rainfall totals ranged anywhere from a trace to 0.05" --
  • Chapel Hill: 0.05"
  • Goldsboro: 0.05"
  • Raleigh: 0.04"
  • Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.04"
  • Fayetteville: 0.03"

Those very few showers will be the only rain we see for most of the week. We'll turn breezy and colder, drier air moves in behind the front today. In our area, northwest winds at 15 to 25mph are expected with higher gusts. The winds will be even stronger in the North Carolina mountains where a high wind warning is in effect today. In the warning area, sustained winds of 30 to 40mph are forecast with gusts of 50 to 60mph possible.

Our next chance for rain looks to come Friday as another front passes through the region. Unfortunately, the chance for rain with that front are slim at this time. Any rain totals would be very light, similar to what we saw this morning.