March in Like a Lamb, But For How Long?

With the exception of a few sprinkles of rain late Friday night, we're look for a dry and sunny weekend. No doubt, March will come in like a lamb with high pressure dominating our weather. The "lamb-like" weather won't last through next week though. I have more in today's morning video blog...

Drought Update

The latest drought monitor map released on Thursday shows the area of exceptional drought in North Carolina has shrunk from 64 counties last week to 39 counties this week. It is important to note this is in no ways a sign the drought is over. Drought conditions continue all across North Carolina, and it's still important for all of us to continue our conservation efforts. Near normal precipitation in February has helped some in our area. However, since January 2007, we are still over 10" behind in our rainfall.

Evening Update

Latest on the Mountain Snow and A Look Ahead to Our Next Rain Chance

There's more mountain snow pictures and an in-depth look at our next chance for measurable rain coming on Tuesday of next week in this morning's video blog update. Check it out --

For a look at snow totals from the mountains, see our blog post below.

Mountain Snow Update

Here's a look at the latest snow totals available from the mountains. Since it is tough to get snow reports during the middle of the night and early in the morning, most of these reports were as of Wednesday evening. Some of these locations likely have higher snow totals this morning since some spots of the mountains have seen snow showers overnight --

• Mt. Leconte, TN: 17"
• Robbinsville: 16"
• Newfound Gap: 12"
• Beech Mountain: 8"
• Haywood County (17 miles NE of Waynesville): 7"
• Boone: 3.5"
• Maggie Valley: 3"
• Weaverville: 3"
• Asheville: 0.8"

Afternoon Update!

Thanks to Tonya in Hope Mills for writing in to let us know there were snow flurries falling there earlier this morning. Other reports of flurries came in from the south side of Raleigh close to the noon hour. No accumulations are expected, but as long as the winds remain high and the overall airmass is cold- a few flurries are possible!

Wednesday Morning Video Update

Check out this beautiful shot taken from a webcam early this morning of snow in the Shining Rock Wilderness area of the North Carolina mountains...
I have more images of the mountain snow in today's video blog update posted below...

For links to webcams around the mountains and a look at yesterday's rains, check out the blog entries posted below.

Snow in the Mountains.... Watching for a Flurry Here

There's a picture from Mt. Mitchell early this morning. Snow has been falling in most mountain locations since late last night and will continue through today. The western slopes of the higher elevations may see as much as 10" when all is said in done.

Some of those snow bands may make it just over the mountains. As a disturbance works across central North Carolina around midday, we'll see a period of cloudy skies and a few spots in our area may see an isolated flurry. That's a small chance though. If you see a flurry today, you can let us know. E-mail us your report and pictures to weather@news14.com.

For you real snow lovers who really want to see some snow, you can watch the snowfall in the mountains from your computer desktop -- http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/ has webcam views from around the mountains.

Tuesday's Rain

Here's a look at rain totals from around our area Tuesday --

• RDU Airport: 0.47"
• NCSU - Raleigh: 0.47"
• Lumberton: 0.42"
• Chapel Hill: 0.39"
• Clayton: 0.34"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.34"
• Fayetteville: 0.30"
• Goldsboro: 0.26"

As of Wednesday morning, the February rainfall deficit at RDU is only 0.05" and the 2008 deficit now stands at 2.81". Since January 2007, we are 10.05" behind the normal rainfall. A few flurries are possible in some spots today and there's a slight chance for a sprinkle or light shower Friday night. However, our next chance for measurable rainfall will come late Monday and Tuesday.

Showers and Storms for Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day today. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning. On average, we expect about a half of an inch of rain today. However, locations that see thunderstorms (especially for areas just south and east of Raleigh) up to an inch of rain is possible.

Here's a more in-depth look at today's shower and storm chance in our morning video blog update.

Meteorologist Joshua McKinney will be in the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center through the midday and afternoon hours to keep you updated on any storms that develop across our area. You'll find the very latest weather information every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones only on News 14 Carolina. If storms occur in your neighborhood, you can send your storm reports and weather pictures anytime to weather@news14.com.

Looking for Rain

A few sprinkles of rain fell across our area Sunday afternoon and again very early Monday morning, but the rain did not add up to much --

• Henderson-Oxford: 0.09"
• Chapel Hill: 0.05"
• Louisburg: 0.04"
• Raleigh-Durham: 0.04"
• Wilson: Trace

Our next chance for rain coming up Tuesday does look to bring us a little more rain. We should see between 0.25" and 0.5" across our area as a cold front crosses the state. The best chance for rain will come during the afternoon hours when a few thunderstorms will be possible. Locations south and east of Raleigh will stand a little better chance of hearing the thunder, and that's the area that may see slightly more rain.

The rain should taper off late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Then we look for a big cool down behind the front. Lows will drop into the low to mid 20s on Thursday morning, which should be the coldest of the week. We may even have some upper teens that morning!

This morning's video blog posted below has more...

Presidents Day Storm Review; Calm Start for this Next Week

The National Weather Service in Newport / Morehead City, NC has released its preliminary summary from the President's Day tornado this week.

Pictures above (along with map , courtesy of National Weather Service) depict some of the damage ..for more, please see the NWS site at :

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/Feb182008.php

The National Weather service reported that in the early morning hours of February 18th, a mesocyclone tracked NE from near Hookerton in Greene county (Eastern NC) just south of Greenville in Pitt county, across Old Ford, North of Washington in Beaufort county and across eastern Marton county near Jamesville. as it moved NE it spawned 2 tornadoes along its path.

One which moved through Greene county, touching down approximately 1 mile north of Hookerton, it reached an EF2 intensity with winds of 120 mph. It destroyed a 2-story solid built home and ripped the home off of an adjacent mobile home.

For more about this storm, please see the full report at : http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/Feb182008.php

This weekend was far quiter...lets go to today's summary and talk about the start of this next work week.

After Saturday's morning fog , storms and clouds, it was wonderful to see the sun pop out (albeit briefly in some areas). It warmed us up nicely into the 60s but the tail end of the weekend is expected to be cooler with the possibility of a few sprinkles or showers thanks to a passing upper level disturbance.

A system developing over the midwest looks to bring another wintry punch by Tuesday to central Iowa and northern Illinois. If you have travel plans north of Virginia for midweek, call ahead as it could be messy!

As we're in exceptional drought throughout a good deal of the state, its good to see the potential for some rain. The same system which will cause that wintry weather for the Midwest and Northeast may bring portions of NC up to three quarters of an inch of rain . As we're still a couple of days from the event, we'll keep checking to see if this model changes its opinion.

The storm continues to make its way toward the Ohio Valley and Northeast US for Tuesday and by mid week is expected to cause some travel problems for travelers north of Harrisburg, PA.

Our showers are expected to arrive in central NC by afternoon Tuesday.



Before the showers though, we have a mild start for the work week! High pressure which had some cooler air for us today will migrate eastward Monday which will steer in some warming southerly winds. highs monday are expected to reach 60 and even climb into the lower to middle 60s for Tuesday.

What a difference a day makes for us. After the rains, an upper level trough swings through which has some colder air in store for us. we'll have a one-two shot of this colder air; first on Wednesday with highs only in the lower 50s, then on Thursday we're fighting to stay in the upper 40s.

However, we're expected to return to more seasonable temperatures by the end of the week. Next weekend looks to be a bit cloudy for saturday, even some showers are possible. Sunday looks to be sunny with highs in the upper 50s.

Have a great week!

Cloudy Start for the Weekend

Looks like clouds will be sticking around for our weekend as a weak disturbance comes across our area on the heels of a storm that brought some measurable rain for our drought-stricken state. Some breaks in the clouds are possible later on Saturday, but clouds are expected to return on Sunday.

Sunday we could see an isolated light shower thanks to an upper level low coming across the southeast.

Monday, high pressure to the north sags southeast, we'll have a warmer day and watch for the next system from the plains states as it moves eastward. It could bring us a shower and some more snow for the midwest on Tuesday!

Have a good Saturday.

A cold and Rainy End to the Work Week

What a chilly, damp start to our Friday! Moisture from the south moved in over prevailing cold dry air, which caused some areas to have a mix or freezing rain into Friday morning. If any accumulation occurred (and some reports were for a little ice in trees , we'll pass along any other reports as we get them, please feel free to send in yours to weather@news14.com) it happened on elevated surfaces since our ground temperatures were in the 40s.

Some preliminary rain amounts:

Charlotte: .30"

New Bern: .67"

Fayetteville: .60"

Wilmington: 1.14"

Lumberton: .64"

RDU: .23"

Wilson: .30"

Roanoke Rapids: .20"

The storm systems come together off the coast later tonight and continue to pull to the north and east, we'll still see a boundary over southern NC which could keep come clouds around into the first part of the weekend, especially along the coast where there could even be a chance for showers here and there.

Temperatures look mild for saturday (average highs for mid February are mid 50s, and we have forecast high of the lower to middle 60s), but are expected to return to the 50s for Sunday.

(photo below courtesy of National Severe Storms Laboratory, NOAA photo library)

If you came to this blog page after viewing our Weather on the Ones Video blog, I asked what kind of clouds this is. Did you guess Mammatus cloud? You'd be right!

For more about this type of cloud, check this description:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mammatus_cloud

Its that time of year for folks who love the weather....8its time for Skywarn storm spotter training from the National Weather Service. Here's the link for more information : http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/skywarn/index.php#training

Have a good weekend!

Pati Darak, News 14 Carolina

Interesting Weather Week

What a week it has been.... starting very early Monday morning with tornado warnings in the Sandhills and eastern North Carolina. Now, we may wrap up the week with a brief round of wintry weather. However, when it comes to icy events in North Carolina, this one should be very minor. By Friday morning, this should be mostly just a cold rain event for most people in our viewing area.

Cold and dry air has moved into North Carolina today. In fact, the dewpoint at 11am this morning is sitting at 11 degrees at RDU. That is very dry and one key factor in the forecast for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. The air is currently drier than most model predictions. As warm, moist air from the storm system developing along the Gulf coast overruns the cold, dry air in place more evaporative cooling will take place that what is forecast by the latest computer models.

Late this afternoon, you may begin to see what appears to be precipitation on radar over North Carolina. Most of that will not be reaching the ground because of how dry the air is. That precipitation aloft well be evaporating before it hits that ground. Through the evening, that evaporation process will help to cool the temperature even further. That should eventually bring the temperature to near freezing around Raleigh and points to the north and west by late tonight.

As of this posting, it appears the precipitation will begin across the Triangle between 9pm and 11pm tonight. Look for a wintry mix around Raleigh and to the north and west. Some snow and sleet are possible before changing over to freezing rain. South and east of Raleigh should see all rain. The freezing rain should change over to just a cold rain across the Triangle through the overnight and early mornings hours. By the morning rush hour on Friday, most of the Triangle should just see a cold rain with temperatures between 33 and 35. Some locations from Hillsborough to Oxford and points toward Greensboro may still have freezing rain into the rush hour.

According to information from the Raleigh National Weather Service Office from earlier today, ground temperatures across our area are running around 40-45 degrees. Any light glazing from the brief round of freezing rain will be confined to elevated surfaces. A few slick spots may form on bridges and overpasses. Slighty higher ice accumulations to a tenth of an inch are possible around the Triad (Greensboro-Winston-Salem).

With all that said, if you have followed winter weather in North Carolina for any length of time, you know there can be surprises. We'll be closely watching for any changes through the afternoon and evening. Stay with News 14 Carolina for the most up to date information every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones. Our forecast center will be staffed around the clock to provide you with the latest information.

Wintry Weather for Thursday Night/Friday Morning?

A cold front will move through North Carolina today ushering in colder air leading to a big cool down for Thursday. Tomorrow's high temperatures should be about 20 degrees colder than today. With cold air in place over the Carolinas Thursday, our attention will turn to a developing storm system along the Gulf coast. That system will push additional moisture into our area overunning the cold, dry air that will already be in place. That sets up a weather pattern we refer to as a "cold air wedge" over the central Carolinas.

With precipitation falling into that "cold air wedge" beginning Thursday evening, there is the chance for some wintry precipitation. That may begin as a quick burst of snow before quickly changing to a sleet and freezing rain mixture mainly from Raleigh to the north and west. Ground temperatures are warm enough and the precipitation should be very light that little to no accumulation is expected at first. Some elevated surfaces including bridges and overpasses may see a light glazing late Thursday night and Friday morning. Again, this looks to mainly happen on the northwest side of the Triangle and points to the west.

The wintry mix should fairly quickly become just a cold rain for Friday around Raleigh. This changeover may take a while the closer you get to the Triad (Greensboro and Winston-Salem).

As with any winter weather system in this part of North Carolina, the forecast is very tricky. We'll continue to fine tune the forecast as new information comes in. Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for updates.

For an in-depth look at today's forecast, check out our video blog.

If you like our new video blog, you'll find it updated a couple times a day on our weather page at news14.com.

Lunar Eclipse Tonight

For more information on the eclipse from NASA, visit http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/lunar.html

Red Flag Warning

Another Red Flag Warning has been posted for 9am to 9pm Wednesday. This one includes all of the News 14 Carolina viewing area. In fact, almost all of North Carolina will be under a Red Flag Warning today.

A cold front that we call a "clipper" will move through the state later today. Ahead of that clipper, winds will be from the southwest at 15-25mph with gusts up to 35 or 40mph. Combine the windy weather with low humidities and already dry conditions, and any fires could spread rapidly. No outdoor burning today!

We do have a chance for some precipitation by the end of the week. This should be mostly a cold rain for us on Friday. However, the onset of the precipitation Thursday evening and Thursday night could start as a wintry mix or freezing rain in some areas especially north and west of Raleigh. We continue to follow the latest weather data coming in for the forecast Thursday night and early Friday. Stay tuned for updates...

Video Blog