Friday's Snow

Snow flurries and snow showers fell across parts of North Carolina early this past Friday morning. Here's a look at some viewer photos sent to the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center.

The most snow fell across portions of Triad as shown in this photo from a viewer in Stoneville--

Around the Triangle, just enough snow fell for a light dusting on some cars as shown by these photos from a News 14 Carolina viewer off of Kent Road in Raleigh --

And a very light dusting could be seen just southeast of Raleigh shown in this picture taken near Garner by News 14 Carolina viewer Bryan Lassiter --

No snow is in the forecast through the Thanksgiving week in our area. However, the North Carolina mountains may pick up some light snow later tonight.

Winter Outlook Updated and Friday's Chance for Snow

The recent cold weather has had a lot of folks asking about the outlook for the upcoming winter. NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center released an update to the winter forecast today...

Based on this forecast, North Carolina can expect near normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation. Keep in mind, that is on average across the entire winter season. Unfortunately, you can't use that information to determine how much snow we may see this winter.

Speaking of snow, we had a few early snow flurries on Tuesday and we could very well see more early Friday morning. A disturbance combined with another blast of cold air should be enough to squeeze out some snow showers. If the snow comes down fast enough, a light dusting will be possible on grassy surfaces. The ground temperatures are currently running near 40 across the area. That combined with early morning temperatures just above freezing means we should not see an impact from the snow showers even though they could be falling during the morning commute.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest forecast. If you see snow Friday, let us know and send us your weather pictures to weather@news14.com.

Is Snow Rare in November?

Tuesday's snow flurries have had folks wanting to know just how rare snow is in North Carolina during the month of November. While snow does not fall too often here in November, it has happened before. Back on November 19, 2000 accumulating snow fell across central North Carolina. The Triangle saw up to 2 inches on some grassy surfaces.

You can read more about the November 2000 snow by clicking to http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/

Snow Flurries!

The first snowflakes of the season were reported across eastern North Carolina Tuesday. The Weather on the Ones Forecast Center received reports of flurries and snow showers from the Raleigh-Durham area to the Sandhills to the coast. Here's a look at some viewer pictures of the flurries...

Photo of snow flurries in Durham submitted by a News 14 Carolina viewer.

Snow flurries in Havelock submitted by a News 14 Carolina viewer.

If you have photos of Tuesday's flurries, you can share them with us by e-mailing them to weather@news14.com.

November 15, 2008 Tornadoes

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has released a detailed report from Saturday morning's tornadoes. You can view the report through the following link --
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20081115/tornado.survey.summary.pdf

Confirmation of EF-3 Tornado

This information from the National Weather service....

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008
...TORNADO SURVEY OF EF-3 TORNADO NEAR WILSON AND ELM CITY IN WILSON
COUNTY.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WILSON COUNTY
EMERGENCY SERVICES AND WILSON FIRE AND RESCUE...DETERMINED THAT AN
EF-3 TORNADO OCCURRED IN WILSON COUNTY.

THE TORNADO OCCURRED ALONG A DISCONTINUOUS...APPROXIMATELY EIGHT-MILE PATH THAT BEGAN WITH MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A DWELLING AND A SNAPPED TREE ALONG HARRISON
DRIVE JUST SOUTH OF WARD BOULEVARD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
WAS THEN NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG LONDON CHURCH ROAD...SOUTH
OF ROUTE 1330.
ON LONDON CHURCH ROAD...ONE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND
SWEPT OFF OF ITS FOUNDATION. BASED ON EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS AND THE
DAMAGE...FIRE AND RESCUE ESTIMATE THE HOME ROLLED AS MANY AS FOUR
TIMES. IN THIS HOME...THERE WAS UNFORTUNATELY ONE FATALITY AND
TWO INJURIES.


ACROSS THE ROAD FROM THIS HOME TO THE NORTHEAST...THE UPPER
PORTION OF A HOME WAS DESTROYED...AND ANOTHER HOME HAD A ROOF
COMPLETELY BLOWN AWAY WITH TREES ON TOP OF IT. IN THIS LATTER
HOME...EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS NOTED THERE WERE TWO MORE INJURIES...
CONDITIONS UNKNOWN. OTHER EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS SUGGESTED THERE WAS
LITTLE NOISE WITH THE EVENT UNTIL THE TORNADO STRUCK. SEVERAL
INDIVIDUALS WERE AWAKE FOR VARIOUS REASONS AROUND 330 AM...AND IT
WAS JUST A FEW MINUTES AFTER THIS WHEN THE TORNADO STRUCK THE
LONDON CHURCH ROAD AREA...ESTIMATED TO BE AT 340 AM.


THE TORNADO THEN FOLLOWED A DISCONTINUOUS PATH INTO ELM CITY.
THERE WERE NUMEROUS INDICATIONS OF TREE DAMAGE IN ELM CITY WITH A
PORCH ROOF BLOWN OFF...AND OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED OR TOPPLED.
FINALLY...THE LAST NOTICEABLE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ALONG ROUTE
1400...AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF HEFNER ROAD AND
ROUTE 1402...WHERE SMALL CLUSTERS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED AND
OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED. THE DAMAGE IN AND NORTHEAST OF ELM CITY
WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF-0 DAMAGE.
TIME/DATE: ESTIMATED FROM 330 AM TO 345 AM EST, SATURDAY NOVEMBER
15, 2008

PEAK WIND: 140 MPH
PATH LENGTH: APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES DISCONTINUOUS
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
INJURIES: 4 KNOWN
FATALITIES: 1
$$
DJF/RWH

EF-Scale for Tornado Ratings

If you've been following news coverage of this weekend's tornadic thunderstorms that came across Johnston and Wilson counties, you're hearing about the strength of these tornadic winds expressed as 'E-F' instead of 'F' (for example, 'EF-2' rather than 'F-2').

Some of you may be wondering why thats happening in the news these days. After all, its supposed to be F-1, F-2, etc. Right? Thats how it was when you were growing up.

You're right as far as it having *been* classified that way before, but in 2007 meteorologists started using a new scale. Its still based on the Fujita Scale (the 'F' scale) but this is called the 'Enhanced Fujita' scale.
The scale still represents increasing degrees of damage from tornadic winds.
It was revised to reflect what was being seen out in the field when surveyors examined the aftermath of tornadoes. It also had to start taking into account more types of structures, different building materials and construction quality. It also has additional categories of vegetation.
In other words while storms may stay the same, the things they encounter may change over time. The science which we use to understand these storms also evolves over time.

The Storm Prediction Center has a wealth of information for you on this subject. Here's the link.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/

PD

Another Round of Storms Possible This Afternoon

Quick note, as we're evaluating the possibility of a squall line that could bring severe weather to our viewing area this afternoon and evening ahead of this vigorous cold front. Storm Prediction Center is getting ready to possibly issue another tornado watch, so tune to your Weather on the Ones Center for your forecast.
Tomorrow's forecast is expected to be calmer and cooler.
We'll update you on last night's tornadic storms later this weekend.
Pati

Governor Easley to Survey Storm Damage

State of North Carolina Office of the Governor

Michael F. Easley
Governor
Release: IMMEDIATE
Contact: Seth Effron
Date: 11/15/2008
Phone: (919) 733-5612
GOV. EASLEY’S STATEMENT ON STORM DAMAGE

Raleigh - Gov. Mike Easley issued this statement today following damage from the storm that passed through central and eastern North Carolina late Friday and early Saturday morning:

“I want to express my sympathy to the families who lost loved ones in this damaging storm as well as my concern for those who were injured, have had homes and property destroyed or damaged. We will do all we can to assist those in the affected areas. After local officials have had the opportunity to assess the areas, I will survey the damage.”

Pleasant weather Sunday, showers expected mid-week

Autumn Storm with Winter Implications...

As Lee pointed out below a strong cold front was responsible for wintry weather for the Carolina mountains as well as some sleet reports from cities across the Northern part of viewing area! This same system has caused quite a mess over New England, primarily New York! Here are some snowfall totals from the Empire State.

• Roxbury, NY: 25.6"
• Freeland, NY: 17.0"
• Morrisville, NY: 15.5"
• Worcester, NY: 10.5"

Along with heavy snow in New York there were also totals upward of 6" in Pennsylvania and a 3" total in Maryland.

For many baseball fans this same storm had a direct impact on the 2008 World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays. Game 5 started innocently enough with cold conditions and light rain, but by the 3rd inning the rain really picked up with the Phillies in the lead 2-1. As the rain continued to pour and the wind howl, officials kept the game rolling through the 4th and 5th innings. Not sure about you, but there's nothing worse than having to deal with wind chills in the 30's unless you have to deal with it wet! It wasn't until the Rays scored a run in the top of the 6th to tie the game at 2 that the grounds crew came out and the game suspended after 30 more minutes of waiting.

Fast forward to this evening. Conditions in Philly will be just as cold, but much drier. The game is scheduled to resume at 8:37pm. So, if you are not a fan of watching 9 innings of baseball never fear it's only 3 and a half innings to decide the winner. Either we have a new champion or we return to Tampa Bay for game 6 and, oh yeah, a dome!

Winter Outlook

The above photos look like winter scenes taken in January or February, but those photos were actually taken Tuesday morning, October 28 when snow showers fell in the North Carolina mountains. The top photo was taken from the Pisgah Inn along the Blue Ridge Parkway at about 5000 ft in elevation. The second photo was taken around Grandfather Mountain.

The cold front that brought the cold temperatures to produce the snow in the mountains even produced some isolated late sleet around the Triangle on Monday afternoon. We received reports of sleet from viewers in Pittsboro, Apex, Cary, and Louisburg.

So does this late October cold snap mean we are in for a cold and snowy winter? No, not necessarily. While temperatures have been colder than normal the past couple of days, we cannot make any correlation between the current weather and what we can expect over the next several months.

Long range forecasts for winter 2008-2009 have been mixed. The latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center (shown below) calls for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for December, January, and February.

Keep in mind we could still have a few cold snaps and even some winter precipitation in a winter that is on average warmer and drier than normal. And yes, it is too early to answer that question for snow lovers of how much snow we can expect this winter. We can tell you we see an average of 7 inches of snow each winter in the Triangle, but the last few winters have fallen well below that normal.

Evening Update

Weekend Fall Foliage Update

The fall colors have peaked in the higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains and are at their peak around the Asheville area this weekend. Check out the latest fall foliage report at http://www.visitnc.com/fallcolor/fallcolor_report.asp.

Unfortunately, the weather may not be that great to check out the fall colors this weekend. Rain is likely across the state beginning Friday afternoon into Saturday. We expect a soaking rain in our part of the state especially late Friday night and Saturday morning when an 1.0 to 1.5" of rain will be possible.

Looking ahead to next week, we expect a big cool down for the middle of the week with our first freeze possible in central North Carolina by next Thursday morning.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates on these forecasts with Weather on the Ones available every 10 minutes only on Time Warner Cable!

Fall Foliage Pictures

Check out these photos of fall foliage around the Blue Ridge Parkway and Grandfather Mountain taken at the end of last week...

If you have fall foliage pictures to share, we'd love to see them! Send your photos to weather@news14.com.

Fall Foliage Update

Fall foliage is near its peak in the higher elevations of the North Carolina like near Grandfather Mountain near where the above picture was taken this week. Read more on this weekend's color report by clicking to http://www.visitnc.com/fallcolor/fallcolor_report.asp

Afternoon Update

Near Record October Heat

We're keeping an eye on our record highs for the next couple of days as the current "October heat wave" continues. Yesterday's high at RDU of 85 was only a degree away from the record set in 1985. Here are the records to watch for today and tomorrow --

• October 15 -- 88 in 1985
• October 16 -- 85 in 1989

Thursday should be our best chance to at least tie the record high. That will be the last in our string of warm days. A cold front will move through the state Friday bringing a chance for showers and cooler temperatures for the weekend. In some spots around the Triangle Friday, it will be a struggle to even reach 70. The low 60s are expected for highs on Saturday!

Fall Foliage Update

More and more fall colors are showing up in western North Carolina. Higher elevations like Grandfather Mountain are reported to be near peak for fall color. The above photos were taken from the Grandfather Mountain area. The peak of fall color for elevations above 5000 feet is forecast to come in the next 7 to 10 days.

Read more about the fall color outlook this weekend across the mountains by clicking to http://www.visitnc.com/fallcolor/fallcolor_report.asp.

Afternoon Update