Saturday Afternoon Update

After checking new model data and listening in to a conference call with the Raleigh National Weather Service, I thought I would share a few updated thoughts on the weather through the rest of the weekend...

- Rain showers and drizzle can be expected to continue tonight. As of 2pm, RDU reported 0.43" of rain since yesterday. 0.73" at Fayetteville and 0.29" at Wilmington.

- Look for rain showers tomorrow morning and early afternoon. At times, the rain may be mixed with sleet especially in the afternoon.

- Some snow showers are possible Sunday afternoon in the Triangle, but look for a changeover to all snow by late Sunday night across the Triangle and Sandhills.

- With warm ground temperatures, snow accumulations Sunday night into Monday morning will all depend on the rate of snowfall. If we see mainly light snow, look for little accumulation as the light snow would melt when hitting the warm ground. A moderate to heavy snowfall rate would cause the ground to cool faster allowing for accumulation.

- Based on the latest data, I would think 1-4" of snow are possible in the Triangle with lesser amounts east of Raleigh and higher amounts west of Raleigh.

- Heavier accumulations are expected between Charlotte and Greensboro and points to the west toward the mountains. 4-7" are possible in this area with a band of heavier snow still possible.

- The above snow accumulation forecasts are based on the expected track of low pressure. If it were to track to the west, the Triangle would see less snow. A more easterly track would bring higher totals to the Triangle.

- Snow showers should taper off pretty quickly between daybreak and mid-morning.

- The NC coast may see a few scattered snow showers or flurries early Monday morning, but no accumulation is expected.

- Don't look for much pre-treatment of area roadways by the DOT. The brine solution that is sometimes used for pre-treatment depends on dry roadway before snow starts to fall. While I'm not an expert in road treatment, since we should see rain right up to the changeover to snow, I would expect the DOT will use other methods to keep our roads clear in NC.

- It should be quite breezy Sunday afternoon through Monday with winds at 15 to 25mph. Higher gusts will be possible. Wind chills should be in the teens into Monday.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest in our Weather on the Ones updates.

Saturday Morning Video Blog Update

Winter Storm Watch

From the Raleigh National Weather Service Office this morning....

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING....

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THESOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-282200-/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0002.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH.. .ALBEMARLE...TROY...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
424 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDMORNING ON MONDAY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL BE ALL RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON... BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... ALONG AND WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR.

TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PEOPLE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

March Snows

By now, you've probably heard the chatter about snow in the forecast for late in the weekend and early next week. While it's too early to say exactly what areas of central and eastern North Carolina will see snow and how much will fall, it has people asking how rare is snow in March?


While snow is not a frequent event in March, there are several examples of significant March snowfalls. One famous event was a storm dubbed the March 1993 Superstorm. That storm only produced about an inch of snow across the Triangle, but it was a much different story in the mountains where they measured the snow in feet --

In March 1983, a storm dropped up to 8 to 9 inches on portions of eastern and northeastern North Carolina --

And, in March of 1980, a storm on the first two days of the month produced over a foot of snow in eastern North Carolina --

If you go way back, you'll also find a big snow storm that produced 17.8" of snow in Raleigh. That was the record snowfall for the Triangle until January 2000.

Will March 2009 go down in the book as starting with snow? Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones as we fine tune the forecast for late in the weekend and early next week.

Early Friday Morning Update

Just taking a look at the latest model data early this morning... and there really are no big changes in the thinking for our weekend forecast. Most of today should be mostly cloudy and mild. We may see a few showers by late afternoon and evening. Our rain chances will pick up during the day Saturday when the rain may be heavy at times. Lingering showers will continue into Sunday. From tonight through Sunday morning, we could see anywhere between 1 to 2 inches of rain.

Colder air will be moving into North Carolina Sunday as an upper level low pressure system helps to develop a surface low pressure off the Carolina coast. That system has the potential to produce what could be a significant winter weather event somewhere in the central and eastern Carolinas. Questions still remain as to what part of the Carolinas would see the highest precipitation. There is still a fair amount of disagreement among the various computer forecast models. It is still much to early to start speculating on snowfall amounts except to say this type of storm system is one that can create a "big impact" event in our area. However, the computer models haven't been too reliable this winter season, and if you have lived in North Carolina long enough, you know there can be a lot of changes in a winter weather forecast.

Here's a quote from this morning's forecast discussion issued by the National Weather Service in Raleigh:

GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE EVENT...IT IS IMPORTANT THAT RESIDENTS...STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS...STAY WELL INFORMED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT EVOLVES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SCALELIFT...WITH HEAVY PRECIP BANDS THAT TYPICALLY RESULT IN A HIGH SOCIAL AND ECONOMICAL IMPACTS.

We'll continue to provide the most up to date information every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina through the weekend. As time permits, we'll have updates here on our weather blog and on our Twitter updates seen on the right side of our blog. As always, we welcome your questions in our blog's comment section.

March in Like a Lion?

Know that saying about March coming in like a lion? It could hold true this weekend in North Carolina. A complex weather setup will come together over the Carolinas this weekend. In fact, we have a little bit of everything in the forecast.... warm, cold, rain, chance for storms, and even the chance for winter precipitation. A lot can still change between now and then weekend, but take an in-depth look at our latest thinking on the weekend forecast in this morning's video blog posted below...

Rain for the Weekend?

It looks like our rain chances are increasing for the weekend. Take an in-depth look at what we are watching for the weekend in this morning's video blog update posted below...

We Could Use a Little Rain...

Rainfall deficits for 2009 are growing across North Carolina. As of this morning, Raleigh-Durham is 3.28" behind normal for rain this year and Wilmington is 4.45" behind normal. If we don't see much rain over the coming days or weeks, much of the state will likely slip back into a drought situation.

The latest drought monitor released last week now has portions of eastern North Carolina under a moderate drought with a severe to moderate drought in western North Carolina. The rest of the state is considered to be "abnormally dry," the stage just before a moderate drought.

Unfortunately, the prospects for rain aren't looking to good for most of this week. We do anticipate a front to move into the state Friday that should bring our next chance for measurable rain. It still to early to say exactly how much rain we can expect out of that system. That may be one of our few chances for rain over the coming week or two. The six to ten day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center forecasts below normal precipitation for our part of the country...

Friday Morning Update

This weekend's precipitation chances are now looking very slim now. Some areas may see a sprinkle of rain or perhaps a snow flurry early Sunday. Otherwise, cool weather will continue into early next week, but warm weather fans may have something to look forward to late next week. Check out this morning's video blog update for more...

Update on the Weekend Forecast

A front moving through North Carolina may produce some light precipitation late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. At this time the moisture looks limited, but some light snow is possible across the Triangle early Sunday. Check out the latest thinking on the forecast in this morning's video blog posted below...

Rain Totals Since Wednesday

• Jacksonville: 1.23"
• New Bern: 1.13"
• Beaufort: 1.12"
• Laurinburg: 0.96"
• Fayetteville: 0.89"
• Cherry Point: 0.83"
• Goldsboro: 0.75"
• Wilmington: 0.68"
• Raleigh-Durham: 0.59"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.57"
• Chapel Hill: 0.52"
• Lumberton: 0.52"

Looking Ahead to the Weekend...

After we get through today's rain weather, our attention will turn to the weekend forecast. Some computer models this week have suggested the potential of some winter weather in North Carolina by Sunday morning. A lot of uncertainty remains in the forecast, and it is too early to make a definite call on exactly what we may expect over the weekend. Check out the scenarios that may play out in this morning's video blog posted below...

Looking for Some Needed Rain

Rainfall deficits for 2009 are growing without much recent rain. Since January 1, the Triangle is around 3 inches behind normal for the year and the southeast coast is just over 4 inches behind. We all have a chance to put a dent in that deficit this week. For more on our midweek rain chances, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Evening Update

Goodbye Early Spring Weather...

Temperatures have been well above normal for February ever since last weekend. That quickly comes to an end this weekend. For an update on what we are watching for the weekend and early next week, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Warm Again Today but Not for Long...

Temperatures will return to the 70s today as we look for a warm and windy Wednesday. Our spring like weather won't last for much longer though. For more on the changes ahead over the next week, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Enjoy the Warm Weather While It Lasts....

Temperatures near 70 are back in the forecast today with the low to mid 70s expected for Wednesday. That is near average temperatures for April instead of February, so one would think the 70s can't last forever in February. And, that's right. We look to return to colder weather starting this weekend and for what appears to be much of next week.

Here's the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center...

And, here's the 8-14 day temperature outlook...

La Nina through Spring

In making long range seasonal forecasts, one of the big factors meteorologists and climatologists look at is the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. That is the interaction between atmospheric patterns and the water temperature of portions of the Pacific Ocean. Most every one knows this as El Nino and La Nina. El Nino and La Nina can impact weather patterns across the globe.

Last week, the Climate Prediction Center forecast La Nina conditions to continue into spring. We cannot say La Nina will bring a specific type of weather, but in general, it can impact weather patterns here in North Carolina. According to research at North Carolina State University and the State Climate Office of North Carolina, there appears to be a trend for more tornadoes during La Nina events.

Read more about La Nina's impacts on North Carolina weather and the following links from the State Climate Office of North Carolina:

• http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/enso.html
• http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/PDFs/office/25th/enso.pdf

Plus, read more about the Climate Prediction Center's Forecast and exactly what La Nina means:

• http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
• http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
• http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html
• http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

February Weather Trends

It has been a cold week in North Carolina and I've talked to a lot of folks that are looking forward to this weekend's warmer weather. Most people then want to know if the warm weather will last. Unfortunately, our warmer than normal weekend weather will more than likely not last for the rest of February but it may last into next week.

The 6 to 10 day outlook seen above from the Climate Prediction Center indicates we can look for above average temperatures through most of next week. In fact, our Weather on the Ones 7-day forecast this morning shows the mid to upper 60s for the middle of next week. If you're a warm weather fan, you may not be so exicted beyond Valentine's Day...

The 8 to 14 day outlook (above) from the Climate Prediction Center shows below average temperatures spreading in to much of the United States. Keep in mind we're just looking at weather trends past 5 to 7 days, so its too early to say exactly what we may see for the rest of February. However, I think its safe to say we will still see some ups and downs in our temperatures through the month.

Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones and News 14 Carolina for our latest forecasts. You can always catch our 7-day forecast at :21 and :51 past the hour.

Wednesday's Snow

Here's a look back at the snowfall across North Carolina from late Tuesday into Wednesday..