We can tell school is back in full swing because the school visit calendar is starting to fill up for our meteorologists here at News 14 Carolina. I just made my first school visit of the year to speak with the third graders at North Chatham Elementary School. The students there had been studying about what causes the different seasons of the year. They had a lot of great questions like how to stay during hurricanes and tornadoes. While it won't be quite as hot today, it will certainly come close with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Afternoon temperatures should finally return to closer to normal levels this coming weekend.
Finally, part of the country that needs rain is getting the rain today, and that rain is headed our way! Moisture from the remnants of Humberto along with an old frontal boundary are helping to produce today's rains. The rain should spread across our area of North Carolina through the afternoon. Off and on showers should continue into the night. Most of the rain should move to our east by very early Saturday morning leaving us with nice weather for the weekend. Cooler temperatures are on the way too. Lows on Sunday morning should drop to the mid 50s with afternoon highs in the 70s.
Hurricane Humberto surprised some folks along the upper Texas Gulf coast this morning. This system was barely a tropical depression Wednesday morning but quickly became a tropical storm Wednesday afternoon. Just before making landfall along High Island, Texas, it strengthened over the warm Gulf waters into a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center estimated winds up to 85mph in the storm around landfall.
Luckily, Tuesday should be the last day we have to talk about 90 degree temperatures for a while. Hopefully, it was the last time for the rest of the year. Somewhat cooler temperatures have arrived today with highs expected in the mid 80s. Now that temperatures aren't so hot, the next thing we need is rain. That should be on the way for Friday.
Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for the latest on your forecast.
Unfortunately, it was only the coast that benefited from Gabrielle's rains. We remain hot and dry here in central North Carolina. Our next hope for some rain will be from a front that should stall out over the state midweek. However, those rains chances aren't looking as optimistic as they once were. We'll keep you posted.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle remains a weak tropical storm as it approaches the North Carolina coast tonight. Some strengthening is possible before it brushes past our coast during the day Sunday. While the storm is moving to the northwest tonight, a more northerly turn is expected Sunday taking the storm across or near the Outer Banks. This will keep the heaviest rains from Gabrielle along the immediate coast. Much of our area will stay dry through the remainder of the weekend.
The low pressure we have been tracking this week strengthened into Subtropical Storm Gabrielle late Friday night. As of the 8am Saturday advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 45mph and is moving to the west-northwest. Tropical Storm Watchs are posted for most of the North Carolina coast meaning tropical storm conditions can be expected within the next 36 hours. We look for Tropical Storm Warnings to be posted around midday today.
The disturbance has encountered a lot of wind shear over the last 12 hours limiting its development. If the system can hang on through the day today, that wind shear should diminish allowing it to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. At that point, the storm should begin to move back to the west coming close to the coast of the Carolinas for the weekend.
Several computer models show a tropical system just off the North Carolina coast by Saturday evening. Here's just one of them from the State Climate Office of North Carolina --
If the disturbance is able to hang on today and follows its expected path, we should see rain in our area for Sunday. Keep in mind there are still a lot of "what if's" with this storm. The big factor we'll be watching today is if the disturbance can hang on through the wind shear that is currently ripping it apart.
Count on News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest updates. We'll also follow the storm here on our Weather on the Ones blog.
This disturbance formed along an old frontal boundary that moved off the southeast coast at the end of last week. As the disturbance interacts with warm ocean waters, I expect it to become a tropical depression by this afternoon or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center has a hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to check out the system this afternoon.
Hurricane Felix is making landfall this morning as a category 5 hurricane along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. This will be devastating to much of Central America. I expect reports of catastrophic damage from Felix's winds and torrential rains. The storm should weaken through the day as the hurricane moves over land.
This non-tropical low has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next couple of days. The low will likely drift to the east today and tomorrow. However, it may begin to move back to the west or northwest by the end of the week. There is at least one computer model this morning that shows the system moving toward the Carolina coast by the weekend. Other models keep the system off shore. A good soaking rainfall from a weak tropical system is exactly what the drought-stricken Carolinas could use. We'll see if it pans out.... Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest.Unfortunately, these cooler than normal temperatures won't stick around through the day. By the afternoon, highs will again be above normal for this time of year. Labor Day typically brings highs in the mid 80s. Today we look for the low 90s. The mid 90s will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
I'll start with the area #2 in the above graphic from the National Hurricane Center. A front that moved through the southeast the last couple of days has stalled off the coast of Georgia. This time of year a stalled front off the coast can be the focus for tropical development. That may be the case over the next day or two. We'll watch this one closely.
