La Nina through Spring

In making long range seasonal forecasts, one of the big factors meteorologists and climatologists look at is the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. That is the interaction between atmospheric patterns and the water temperature of portions of the Pacific Ocean. Most every one knows this as El Nino and La Nina. El Nino and La Nina can impact weather patterns across the globe.

Last week, the Climate Prediction Center forecast La Nina conditions to continue into spring. We cannot say La Nina will bring a specific type of weather, but in general, it can impact weather patterns here in North Carolina. According to research at North Carolina State University and the State Climate Office of North Carolina, there appears to be a trend for more tornadoes during La Nina events.

Read more about La Nina's impacts on North Carolina weather and the following links from the State Climate Office of North Carolina:

• http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/enso.html
• http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/PDFs/office/25th/enso.pdf

Plus, read more about the Climate Prediction Center's Forecast and exactly what La Nina means:

• http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
• http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
• http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html
• http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

February Weather Trends

It has been a cold week in North Carolina and I've talked to a lot of folks that are looking forward to this weekend's warmer weather. Most people then want to know if the warm weather will last. Unfortunately, our warmer than normal weekend weather will more than likely not last for the rest of February but it may last into next week.

The 6 to 10 day outlook seen above from the Climate Prediction Center indicates we can look for above average temperatures through most of next week. In fact, our Weather on the Ones 7-day forecast this morning shows the mid to upper 60s for the middle of next week. If you're a warm weather fan, you may not be so exicted beyond Valentine's Day...

The 8 to 14 day outlook (above) from the Climate Prediction Center shows below average temperatures spreading in to much of the United States. Keep in mind we're just looking at weather trends past 5 to 7 days, so its too early to say exactly what we may see for the rest of February. However, I think its safe to say we will still see some ups and downs in our temperatures through the month.

Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones and News 14 Carolina for our latest forecasts. You can always catch our 7-day forecast at :21 and :51 past the hour.

Wednesday's Snow

Here's a look back at the snowfall across North Carolina from late Tuesday into Wednesday..

National Weather Person's Day!

Today is National Weather Person's Day! Today the Weather on the Ones Team thanks our partners at the National Weather Service Offices in the Carolinas who have a great working relationship with the media!

Here's more information on the day from a press release issued by the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh --

Thursday, February 5 is National Weatherman's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation.

Many of us take weather information for granted. Turn on a light switch, you get light. Turn on your television or radio, or check a web site and you get the weather forecast. It’s easy to forget that around the clock, dedicated meteorologists and weathercasters are vigilantly creating forecasts to help you plan your day, and issuing warnings to help keep you safe.

The men and women at your local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office gather the raw weather data, analyze the data, and study numerical computer models in order to issue the weather and river forecasts and warnings to protect life and property. Specialized marine and aviation forecasts help enhance the Nation’s economy. Spot forecasts help firefighters control wildfires and emergency management officials contain hazardous chemical spills. Extensive climate records help engineers, architects, researchers, insurance companies and utilities.

The primary mission of the NWS is to provide the American public with the best possible warning service to save lives. Recent severe weather statistics show that we continue to improve our capability to warn the public of impending hazardous weather. Nationally, lead time for flash flood warnings improved from 22 minutes in 1993 to 78 minutes in 2008. Accuracy over the same time period increased from 71 percent to 91 percent. Lead time for tornado warnings has increased from 6 minutes in 1993 to nearly 15 minutes today. Tornado warning accuracy increased from 43 percent to 75 percent. Winter storm accuracy in 2008 was 89 percent with an average lead time of 17 hours. Since 1990, the Tropical Prediction Center’s 24 to 72 hour tropical storm forecast track errors have been reduced by more than 50%. These more accurate and longer lead time warnings help communities stay safe.

Locally, the Raleigh NWS forecast office, which serves 31 counties in central North Carolina, had an accuracy of 83 percent for tornado warnings in 2008 with an average lead time of 15 minutes. For the stronger and more dangerous EF2 and greater tornadoes, the numbers improve to 100 percent detection with 20 minutes of lead time. Flash flood warning accuracy was 90 percent with an average lead time of 60 minutes. For the recent winter storm, the first to impact the area in five years, accuracy was 100 percent with an average Winter Storm Watch lead time of 29 hours.

But the NWS couldn't accomplish its mission without a diverse group of partners helping in the process.

Nationwide, more than 11,000 volunteer Cooperative Observers take regular measurements of temperature, precipitation and other data, which is used by forecasters and climatologists. Nearly 300,000 volunteer storm spotters are trained by the NWS to provide visual reports of severe weather conditions to forecast offices and local emergency management officials. Volunteer amateur radio operators provide critical emergency communications during severe weather.

The Raleigh NWS office has a network of 80 dedicated volunteer Cooperative Observers throughout central North Carolina. Nearly 500 volunteer observers report through the new Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network. Thousands of people attend SKYWARN severe storm spotter training classes in the local area each year.

Most of the colorful weather graphics seen on television and in newspapers come from another member of the America's weather team. Commercial weather companies enhance the presentation of the NWS data and information for their clients in the media and in many weather-sensitive industries, and provide customized forecasts and services for clients.
And finally, television weathercasters are the most visible members of the America's weather team. They are the trusted faces many people turn to for weather information, and they relay the NWS’s official watches and warnings for hazardous weather.

On National Weatherman's Day, the NWS would like to thank all of the volunteers and our partners in television and commercial weather services. Thank you!

To learn more about weather and how to help serve your local communities please visit:

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS): http://cocorahs.org/
NWS SKYWARN Program: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/skywarn
Central Carolina SKYWARN: http://centralcarolinaskywarn.net/
Triad SKYWARN: http://www.triadskywarn.com/
Online Weather School: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/

Snow to the Coast

The Raleigh/Durham area may have missed out on the snow today, but snow showers did make it all the way to the coast. Our coastal channel viewers sent us pictures including the two posted above. The first picture was taken by John Lytvinenko at Holden Beach and second was taken by Scottie Blick at Ocean Isle.

Snow pictures from News 14 Carolina viewers around the state are posted on news14.com. You can find them on our home page this evening or check out this direct link -- http://www.news14.com/content/top_stories/604481/share-pictures-of-your-snow-day-with-news-14/Default.aspx

If you have any photos from earlier today to share with us, you can still send them to weather@news14.com.

Here's an updated look at snow totals from around our area:

• Benson: 3.0"
• Dunn: 3.0"
• Pinehurst: 3.0"
• Saratoga: 3.0"
• Southern Pines: 3.0"
• Angier: 2.5"
• Lillington: 2.5"
• Wilson: 2.5"
• Bladenboro: 2.0"
• Laurinburg: 2.0"
• Smithfield: 2.0"
• Farmville: 1.5"
• Goldsboro: 1.5"
• Ocean Isle: 1.1"
• Longwood: 1.0"
• Red Springs: 0.5"
  

8am update

Updated snow totals --

• Benson: 3.0"
• Dunn: 3.0"
• Pinehurst: 3.0"
• Saratoga: 3.0"
• Southern Pines: 3.0"
• Goldsboro: 2.5"
• Lillington: 2.5"
• Wilson: 2.5"
• Laurinburg: 2.0"
• Rosewood: 2.0"
• Smithfield: 2.0"
• Fayetteville: 1.0"

Snow showers are now beginning to move toward the coast including around Wilmington. Send your snow reports and pictures to weather@news14.com

6am update

Again, no snow day for the Triangle... the snow developed mainly south and east of Raleigh. Here's a look at snow totals so far:

• Lillington: 2.0"


• Tarboro: 2.0"


• Smithfield: 1.5"


• Fayetteville: 1.0"


• Wilson: 1.0"

You can send your pictures and snow reports to weather@news14.com.

Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones for the latest...

3:30 am Update

The band of snow across central North Carolina has set up farther south than originally expected. The band of accumulating snow looks to stay mainly south of Raleigh. In our viewing area, Moore County to Harnett County to Johnston County to Wilson and Wayne Counties will likely see the most snow. This region may see up to 4". As of 3am this morning we had had viewer reports of just over 2" in Moore County near the Hoke County like and between 1 and 2 inches in Smithfield. Charlotte Nelson of Smithfield sent us the above picture from Smithfield early this morning.

You can send your snow totals and weather pictures to weather@news14.com.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates through the morning.

Chance for Snow Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Some of the latest weather data suggests the Triangle may see around 1 to 3 inches of snow through tomorrow morning with somewhat higher amounts possible north of Raleigh toward the Virginia border. Because of that, the National Weather Service this afternoon has posted a Winter Storm Warning for areas north of the Triangle for tonight through tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the same time period from the Triad through the Triangle to Wilson and Goldsboro.

The Weather on the Ones Forecast Center will be staffed around the clock. We'll continue to monitor the latest weather information and update the forecast as necessary. Count on the latest updates available every 10 minutes only on News 14 Carolina.

Post your weather report from your neighborhood in our comment section on our blog, or e-mail your report and pictures to weather@news14.com.

Some Snow Possible Tonight?

Areas around the Triangle saw a little snow very early this morning around 2 to 4am. As expected, the snow didn't amount to much. Locations that did see some snow reported around a trace to just a little more --

• Henderson: 0.3"
• Oxford: 0.3"
• Hillsborough: 0.2"
• Louisburg: 0.2"
• Apex: Trace
• Raleigh: Trace
• Warrenton: Trace

We have the chance to see a bit more snow than that late tonight into early Wednesday morning. This system will have limited moisture but may have just enough to produce around an inch of snow around the Triangle and perhaps just a little more north of Raleigh. I have more on tonight's snow chances in this morning's video blog posted below...

Groundhog's Day Blog Update

Happy Groundhog's Day! Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning in Pennsylvania and is predicting six more weeks of winter. North Carolina's groundhog Sir Walter Wally will make his official prediction at noon today.

For more on those and other groundhogs, check out their websites:

• Sir Walter Wally
• Punxsutwaney Phil
• General Beau Lee
• Staten Island Chuck
• Jimmy the Groundhog

No matter what the Groundhog says we look to have colder weather through midweek with a couple limited chances to at least see some snow flurries. Then we look for a warm up for the weekend.

Light rain showers are in the forecast tonight, but they may briefly change to a light snow shower before ending during the very early morning hours on Tuesday. Another disturbance could produce snow showers late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. For more on those chances check out today's video blog update posted below...

Saturday Update

Just took a quick look at the latest model guidance today. There appears to be a trend for less moisture with the early week storm system for North Carolina. This may suggest only some rain showers Monday night changing to a few flurries or light snow showers very early Tuesday morning with very little precipitation during the day. The storm still looks to a be big headache for folks in parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Since we are still a couple days out from when this storm actually develops, we may still see changes in the forecast. We'll continue to follow the latest trends and fine tune the forecast as needed. Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina through the weekend for the latest updates.

Friday Morning Update on Storm System for Next Week

Storm System for Next Week?

Yesterday was another active weather day across our region with windy conditions and rain into the afternoon and evening. Peak wind gusts around our area included 40mph at the Raleigh-Durham International Airport, 41mph at the Fayetteville Regional Aiport, and 43mph at the Wilmington International Airport.

Our winds are much calmer this morning, and as I write this blog the sun is finally breaking out for the first time this week! We'll enjoy calm weather conditions through the weekend, but we are looking for an active weather pattern to return for the first of next week. By late Sunday and early Monday, we'll be tracking a developing storm system across the southeast. Find out how this storm may impact our area with the chance for winter weather by Tuesday in parts of the state, when you view this morning's video blog posted below...

Ice Storm 2009!

If you were watching News 14 Carolina last weekend you heard me mention there was going to be a HUGE winter storm for the Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Red River Vally's on the way this week. Sure enough the nightmare scenario came true for residents from Oklahoma, Arkansas, Southern Missouri and Kentucky.

The Courier-Journal from Louisville, Kentucky is reporting as many as 205,000 people in The River City are without power. Some residents may be without electricity for the next 10 days! At the moment, this same paper is reporting to its readers this storm has caused the second worst power outage in Kentucky state history. Want to know the seriousness of this ice storm? My Mom sent me a picture message from her cell phone that drives home this point (top of page). It shows a 15-20 foot tall tree that's fallen over on the drive way- crushing the fence to my childhood home! If you look closely you can see the basketball goal where I would shoot hoops. This is the same goal I used to imagine that I was a member of the Kentucky basketball squad playing against a Roy Williams coached Kansas team! That's how long it's been since I shot a basket on this hoop. Nostalgia aside, this is a terrible storm that's going to take weeks to dig out from.

Be sure to tune in to the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center on Thursday as we talk about a potentially tricky situation early next week.

So, what are some of the snow and ice totals from Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky? Here's the list from 7pm Wednesday evening. Snow is listed first, followed by ice accretion- both in inches.

LOUISVILLE METRO...     4.5 TO 6 INCHES      0.5 TO 0.75 INCH.
LEXINGTON-FAYETTE...    1 TO 2 INCHES        0.5 INCH.

Active January

I was just looking over our blog posts this month, and it reminded me it has been an active January when it comes to our weather. A front on January 7th produced tropical storm force wind gusts across the state. The middle of the month featured an Arctic blast that brought our area some of the coldest weather we have had in a few years. Then just last week we saw the first measurable snowfall central and eastern North Carolina has seen in a few years. Snowfall reports topped out as high as 6 to 7 inches near Raleigh.

Today, the active January weather pattern continues. Just this morning a warm front is passing through the state bringing temperatures into the 60s to near 70 in some spots. A cold front will bring rain and windy weather later in the day. Wind gusts as high as 35 to 40mph are in the forecast this afternoon.

Once the storm passes, we do look for quiet weather to round out the rest of the month. However, February may get off to an active start with a storm system expected to impact our area the first of next week. Stay tuned through the rest of the week for the latest on that forecast...

Final Snowfall Totals from January 20th

Here's the total snowfall from the Inauguration Day storm of 2009 for Central and Eastern North Carolina. Many areas have had total snow melt, but in recent days I have been able to spot some shady places where remnants are still visible.

This week our attention turns to rain that will be sticking around from Tuesday through Thursday. Be sure to stop by the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center for more details.

Inauguration Day Storm of 2009

After hours of live coverage from News 14 Carolina, we can look back today to see the body of work that was compiled on Tuesday, January 20, 2009.

It all kicked off a little after 3 am as Lee Ringer brought you the first initial rains changing to snow for the viewing area. I met up with him around 5am and was ready to hit the air at 6 for what turned out to be a tag team event over the following 6 hours! Outside reports from Ilin Chen and Amy Davis only helped to bring the outstanding coverage to you at home. Not only did our coverage hit the Triangle, but viewers were watching updates along the Coast from our office as well.

Thank goodness Pati Darak came in to assist behind the scenes from 9am-11:30am as we were seeing snowfall reports climbing inch by inch in the Triangle! At 11:30am we shifted attention to the history making event that was not to be upstaged by Mother Nature- Barack Obama becoming the 44th President of the United States. After stepping out of Inauguration coverage we were back on the air as Pati took over updating viewers as the storm started to wrap up across Central North Carolina and continued to produce snow over the Coast.

I finally took off as Gary Stephenson arrived at 2pm. Pati and Gary saw this storm off the Coast and took viewers through the official totals along with what would be a tricky night ahead as icy spots developed across the region.

Thanks to all the viewers who took time to share your snow pictures. It made our coverage more accurate and timely. Your viewership is appreciated and we try each and everyday to bring you the best forecast as well as the best coverage during severe weather. Thanks again for watching and stay tuned, winter still has two months to go!

1pm Update

Almost 5 inches of snow measured in Fayetteville submitted by viewer KJ Westmen.

Here's a look at other snow totals as of late this morning midday from around the region...

• Pittsboro: 7.0"
• North Raleigh: 6.0"
• Clayton: 5.5"
• Bunnlevel: 4.8"
• Carthage: 4.0"
• Fayetteville: 4.0"
• Wilson: 3.5"
• RDU Airport: 3.4"
• Butner: 3.0"
• Oxford: 2.5"
• Chapel Hill: 2.0"

Light snow continues to fall across parts of the area. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates every 10 minutes.

We also continue to receive hundered of your weather photos! Thanks for sharing! Because of the volume of photos, we can only show select photos during Weather on the Ones. However, we are attempting to post as many photos as possible on news14.com.

You can share your snow totals and pictures from your neighborhood by e-mailing weather@news14.com.

You can also leave your snow total reports in the comment section of our blog.

8am Update

3-4" of snow now reported across parts of Wake County.

How much have you seen in your neighborhood? Let us know in the comment section below or send an e-mail to weather@news14.com

7am Update

Above photo was taken by a viewer in the 6am hour from Holly Springs. They reported 1.5" of snow so far there. There have been reports up to 3" so far around Raleigh.

Send your photos and reports to weather@news14.com or leave a comment on our blog.

Snow Pictures

The first snow pictures of the day are starting to come into the Forecast Center. You can share yours by e-mailing weather@news14.com. We'll show some during Weather on the Ones and on news14.com.

As of 5am, snow was sticking on road surfaces across the region. There were also reports of up to an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces.

Snow!

Ever since last week, it looked like we were in a weather pattern that COULD produce snow across the Carolinas. The cold air certainly was here. We just need one other ingredient... moisture. Early this morning computer forecast models have come into better agreement that we may get that needed ingredient for snow. Accumulating snow is looking likely over parts of the Carolinas beginning Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

We'll watch a low pressure system that will track across the Carolinas tonight. A disturbance in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will race out of the north central US today to meet up with that low. That will cause the low to rapidly intensify tonight into tomorrow, and those are the ingredients for a significant winter storm for our area.

Snow totals will depend on just how much the low intensifies and the exact track of the low. Early forecasts this morning suggest much of the region will see between 2 to 4 inches of snow, but there will likely be a heavier band of snow that could be between 4 to 6 inches or even higher. The exact location of that heavier band will depend on the track of the low. For now, we will forecast that to set up somewhere near the I-95 corridor. However, if the low tracks further inland, that heavier snow band could be over the Triangle. If the low tracks closer to the coast or off the coast, that heavier snow band will be east of I-95.

Please keep in mind these are preliminary snow total forecasts, and likely will be adjusted through the day. If this low intensifies more than currently forecast, snow totals could be much higher. This forecast has some similirities to the record snow storm from January 2000 that dumped up to 20 inches of snow in the Triangle. That system only appeared in computer models just about 24 hours before the snow started. Early forecasts for storm were also between 2 to 4 inches but had to be adjusted much higher as it became evident that the low would become much stronger than expected. I don't point that out to say we will have another January 2000 snow, but just to say the forecast may change rapidly over the next 24 hours.

If you've followed winter weather forecasting in North Carolina, you know forecasting exact totals is very difficult. The only thing I am certain about in the forecast now is that the forecast will change some as we continue to follow the latest data. Count on News 14 Carolina for the most weather updates with Weather on the Ones. As time permits, we'll have updates on our blog, plus you can follow our new Twitter updates. Our Twitter links are available at the top right of our blog page.

Saturday Start Temps!

We knew it was going to be cold! Here are some morning start temps from around North Carolina on Saturday.

Raleigh: 11

Fayetteville: 12

Lumberton: 13

Wilmington: 16

Asheville: 4

Charlotte: 9

Greensboro: 10

Friday Morning Lows

Here's a look at the hourly low temperatures this morning from around the Triangle, Sandhills, and coastal regions of North Carolina:

• Oxford-Henderson: 12
• Southern Pines: 14
• Chapel Hill: 15
• Raleigh-Durham: 15
• Louisburg: 16
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 16
• Laurinburg: 17
• Erwin: 18
• Goldsboro: 18
• Smithfield: 18
• Elizabethtown: 19
• Fayetteville: 19
• Jacksonville: 19
• Kenansville: 19
• New Bern: 20
• Lumberton: 20
• Havelock (Cherry Point): 21
• Beafort: 22
• Wilmington: 22
• Whiteville: 23
• Southport

We look for an even colder temperatures for Friday night into Saturday morning. Lows should be back in the teens area wide around daybreak Saturday. We are forecasting 10 degrees around the Triangle with some single digit lows possible The last time a single digit low was reported at RDU was in January 2000. That was after a record snowfall dumped over 20 inches of snow across parts of the Triangle.

Preparing for cold temperatures and very dry air!

As we’re expecting some of the coldest weather in years to visit, albeit briefly, our North Carolina neighborhoods, its still important to keep some cold weather measures in mind for tonight and into the weekend.

This information is compiled from the National Weather Service and the University of New Hampshire.

1) If you have external pipes, wrap them to keep them from freezing. Be sure to disconnect hoses from outdoor faucets, as keeping them attached will promote freezing. Water lines in unheated recreational vehicles and out buildings should be winterized.

2) Be sure to have enough fuel on hand if you plan to use alternative heating sources. Also be sure to use the proper fuel if using a gas or kerosene heater, as many house fires result from fueling errors involving liquid or gas fueled heating equipment.

3) If possible, have your fireplace or wood stove inspected, especially if this is your first use of the season. Creosote buildup in chimneys resulting from years of use can promote chimney fires.

4) Use a sturdy screen or door in front of your fireplace when in use.

5) Burn only wood in fireplaces, never burn paper.

6) When using electric heaters, be aware not to overload electrical outlets. Also be careful of electrical cords that present hazardous walkways.

7) Keep heating sources at least 3 feet from curtains, bedding and other combustible objects. Failure to do so is one of the main causes of home fires involving space heaters.

7) Never leave children unattended in a room with a burning fireplace, running heater or lit candles.

8) Have you checked your smoke detector or changed the batteries lately?

9) If you have a fire extinguisher, make sure it is not past its effective date and that you know how to use it. Most fire departments will provide training on how to use them.

Your Vehicle…
1) Make sure your car has a good battery that is charged and charges well when the car is operating. Weak batteries are susceptible to cold temperatures and lose their charge easier. Also make sure you have that antifreeze in the radiator.. that is something that can easily be overlooked in our milder climate.

2) Keep some basic items in your car – Scraper, jumper cables, blankets, flashlight, and some munchies like granola bars.

Also:Be sure to bring pets in or provide shelter for them from these very cold temperatures. Some of the coldest temperatures will occur Friday and Saturday mornings when lows will fall into the lower teens. Wind chills could fall into the single digits as well, so make sure you’re well bundled-up when headed outdoors.

Regarding dry, cold air and dehydration, a study by the University of New Hampshire shows that while we still get dehydrated in cold weather, our bodies’ cues to hydrate are different.

When weather is hot, the body cools itself by directing fluid away from its core via a process called vasodialation. Your veins are opening up and taking heated fluids away from the body’s core and you sweat, thereby cooling you off. In colder temperatures, the veins constrict (vasoconstriction) to keep warm fluids near the body’s core and keep you warm. However, anytime you see your breath on a cold day, know that you are losing fluids, even if in small doses.

“People just don’t feel as thirsty when the weather is cold,” says Robert Kenefick, UNH associate professor of kinesiology. “When they don’t feel thirsty, they don’t drink as much, and this can cause dehydration.”

Yet the loss of fluid from our bodies, which triggers thirst in warmer weather, does not elicit the same response when the temperatures dip. It’s not simply because we don’t feel hot, Kenefick says. His 2005 study shows that cold actually alters thirst sensation.

Kenefick recommends that you follow the same advice in cold weather as in warm when it comes to keeping yourself hydrated. Drink plenty of water, especially when exercising or working outdoors. A good way to monitor proper hydration is to examine urine output – the color should be nearly clear.

Here Comes the Arctic Air...

The Arctic air we have been talking about for days is now arriving in the Carolinas. As of 9am this morning, the temperature had dropping into the upper teens and Boone and light snow was falling. Look for tempratures around the Triangle and Sanhills to reach our highs around midday and then drop into the afternoon. The wind will pick up as well during the afternoon making it feel colder with wind chills in the teens. The actual temperature should drop into the teens tonight with wind chills potentially in the single digits Friday morning.

We'll stay cold through the weekend with Saturday morning temperatures possibly just a little colder than Friday morning. Then, the interesting weather may come late Sunday... computer models are now showing a system working its way through the Carolinas late Sunday into early Monday morning. It may be able to squeeze out some light precipitation. Highs on Sunday should reach the 40s, but as the temperatures drop Sunday evening, light snow cannot be ruled out. If you've been following winter weather in North Carolina long, you know a lot can change when there is winter weather in the forecast several days out. As of now, this is only a slight chance and any precipitation should be light. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for any changes to that forecast over the coming days.

Stay warm too!

Take a Look...

Here's an infrared satellite image I grabbed from Wednesday evening at 6:45pm. You can see a line stretching from Maine, West Virginia, through Kentucky, Missouri, all the way past Montana. South of this line the satellite shows a darker image revealing the Deep South, Texas, west to California. However, north the view becomes hazy. Almost opaque. What's happening over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest that could be causing this differential in appearance?

The devil is in the details, or how much news you've been watching. Look at the key at the bottom of the image. This is a temperature scale. Infrared imagery isn't a true view of clouds like the visible satellite is during the day. IR relies on cloud temperatures to show Meteorologists where clouds are located. Typically clouds temperatures in the atmosphere can fall to -40 to -60 making them easily seen by the coldness of their temperature aloft. However, in this image we're seeing not only clouds, but air temperatures! Yes, the Arctic Blast leaving a trail of cold air from Canada to the United States is so cold that it's able to be detected on IR images! Using the scale we can see that temps of -10 to -25 is being felt from Chicago to Northern Minnesota.

Coldest Air in the Last Few Years?

During Weather on the Ones this morning, you have heard me mention that the Arctic blast for the end of the week is expected to bring some of the coldest weather we've had in the last few years. Highs Friday may not even make it out of the 20s in some spots and morning lows should drop to the teens Friday and Saturday morning. So when is the last time we've had temperatures this cold? Here's a look at some information passed along by the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh...

Most recent dates at RDU with highs below 32

• December 14, 2005: 31
• January 19, 2005: 30
• January 18, 2005: 30

Most recent dates at RDU with lows in the teens

• January 21, 2008: 15
• January 20, 2008: 18
• February 19, 2007: 19
• February 17, 2007: 19
• February 7, 2007: 15

Last dates at RDU where the low was in the single digits

• January 29, 2000: 7
• January 28, 2000: 1

A couple of notes about some of those past cold temperatures... The single digit lows in 2000 occurred following the record January 2000 snowstorm that dumped over 20 inches of snow on the Triangle. The most recent high of 30 at RDU on January 19, 2005 was set on the day that about a half of inch of snow paralyzed the Triangle. Snow that accumulated on roadways that day created gridlock around Raleigh trapping motorists on areas highways for hours. Some school kids even had to spend the night at school because of the road conditions that afternoon.

Fortunately, this week's cold blast looks to be a dry one. Yesterday, there were some hints in the models for a slight chance for precipitation on Sunday. However, Sunday now appears to stay dry.

Stay tuned for the latest weather updates with Weather on the Ones only on News 14 Carolina!

Cold for the End of the Week, But Not Record Cold

For a while now, we've been talking about the frigid temperatures that are on the way for the end of the week. It certainly will be much colder than normal. Average highs for this time of the year run int he upper 40s with lows in the upper 20s around the Triangle. We are expecting lows Friday and Saturday mornings to drop to the teens. Afternoon temperatures on Friday should only reach the 20s to near 30.

Now, all of that is certain quite cold, but it will not set any records. Here are how the record lows stand for the rest of the week...

• Wednesday (January 14): 12 in 1969
• Thursday (January 15): 9 in in 1994
• Friday (January 16): 3 in 1994
• Saturday (January 17): -1 in 1977
• Sunday (January 18): 3 in 1977

Cold Week Ahead

The week is starting with near normal temperatures for January, but by week's end we could have the coldest weather so far this winter. In fact, we may have some of the coldest weather we have seen around here in quite a while by Friday and Saturday. Check out what's on the way in this morning's video blog update posted below...

Friday Morning Update on the Chance for Colder Weather Next Week

If you've been following our forecasts or our blog this week, you know we have been discussing the potential for an Arctic blast across much of the United States next week. As of Friday morning, there is still a good bit of uncertainty on that Arctic blast and the timing of when it may arrive. Earlier in the week it appeared that the very cold temperatures would arrive here in the Carolinas for the middle of next week. Some of the latest weather guidance from late yesterday and early this morning now suggest that the bitterly cold air will arrive more toward the end of next week.



I discuss those changes and how it impacts our extended forecast in this morning's video blog posted below.

Arctic Air for Next Week?

The temperature in Fairbanks, Alaska this morning is around -45. Yep, that's 45 degrees below zero. Of course it's cold in Alaska, but that is very cold for even Fairbanks this time of the year. So, why do we even care how cold it is in Alaska this morning? That is the location for a frigid Arctic air mass that could come racing into the United States all the way to the Carolinas by the middle of next week. Now that air will modify some as moves our way, but there is still the potential for very cold temperatures here around the middle of next week. I have more on the forecast for an Arctic blast in this morning's video blog posted below.

Peak Wind Gusts from Wednesday

A look back at some of the peak wind gusts from around North Carolina on Wednesday from various reports passed along by the National Weather Service...

• Garner: 64mph
• Goldsboro (Seymour Johnson Air Force Base): 63mph
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 62mph
• Raleigh-Durham Airport: 59mph
• Topsail Island: 56mph
• Wrightsville Beach: 56mph
• Pope Air Force Base: 55mph
• Fayetteville Airport: 53mph
• Laurinburg: 52mph
• Chapel Hill: 51mph
• Lumberton: 51mph
• Wilmington: 51mph
• Fort Bragg: 50mph
• Holly Springs: 50mph
• Greensboro: 49mph
• Burlington: 48mph
• Clinton: 47mph
• Whiteville: 46mph

Rain, Wind, and Rainbows?

Yesterday was quite a day... a little rain and a lot of wind. Peak wind gusts topped out at over 50mph in many locations including a gust to 59mph at the Raleigh-Durham Airport and 63mph at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in Goldsboro.

Calmer weather is expected today, although there is a slight chance for a sprinkle of rain. A few folks from Raleigh to the north may even see a snow flake or two, but those chances are very slim. Meteorologist Joshua McKinney pointed out in the previous blog post that a sure sign today's weather will be calmer was a rainbow spotted by many of our viewers around the Triangle. Here's a look at more of those viewer photos....

The above three photos were taken by News 14 Carolina viewer Kitty Ashby in Willow Springs.

Photo from Arladean Emerson in Cary.

Rainbow spotted in Morrisville from Timothy Moeller.

If you ever have weather pictures to share with the Weather on the Ones Forecast Team, e-mail them to weather@news14.com.

Calming Down...

Jim Penny, a loyal News 14 Carolina viewer, sent us this beautiful picture at the end of a windy day in North Carolina. Wind gusts were as high as 63 mph in Goldsboro and 62 mph in Rocky Mount! However, as the winds continue to diminish overnight we will be left with damage over many counties in the viewing area. Numerous trees and power lines were brought down by destructive winds on Wednesday. From this point on we'll certainly see better, but cooler days ahead this week.

Rain and Wind

A front moving through North Carolina today is bringing us another round of wet weather. Unlike yesterday though, we'll have to deal with windy conditions today. Wind gusts as high as 40 to 45mph will be possible in some spots. With an already saturated ground from yesterday's rain, the wind could easily bring down some trees resulting in spotty power outages. Already this morning, there have been some power outages reported around the Triad. You can keep track of outages in our area through the following websites --

• Power outage reports from Duke Energy
• Power outage map from Progress Energy

Wet Again!

Rainfall totals through 5pm on Tuesday were highest from the Triangle to the Triad. Greensboro measured .092", while RDU gained 0.89" to its monthly total. While Fayetteville and Lumberton had 0.57" and 0.13" respectively, the Sandhills should see higher totals Wednesday.

This evening we are monitoring strong to severe storm across the Deep South. Parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina are under a Tornado Watch until 11pm. A thunderstorm risk is possible in North Carolina from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, but severe storms appear to be limited as most of the dynamics losing steam late Tuesday night.

As the cold front passes, winds will shift to the Northwest and colder air is due to arrive as we make it to Thursday. NW winds will increase to 20-30 mph during the day on Thursday. By Friday lows drop back into the 20s while highs struggle to reach the 50s.

Soggy Tuesday

Wet weather will continue in the forecast through Wednesday. For more on our rain chanes plus a preview of what could be ahead next week, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Wet Weather Through Midweek

Don't look for much sunshine through the first half of this week. In fact, much of the area could see up to a couple of inches of rain through Wednesday. We do not expect to see a lot of that rain today, but a few light showers are possible late this afternoon. Look for the rain chances to pick up later tonight into early Tuesday.

The first chance for showers begins this afternoon as a cold front slips into North Carolina. As more moisture builds along the front, the chance for rain will pick up tonight. Cooler air behind that front will also aid in wedging cold air into central North Carolina. That will make for a wide range of temperatures Tuesday across the state. The Triangle and Triad will be stuck in the 40s through the day with highs near 60 to the low 60s expected in the Sandhills. Locations along the southeast coast may even get close to 70.

The rain from Tuesday morning should move to the north of our area during the day bringing a break in the rain chances Tuesday afternoon. The warm front you see across the state on the above surface map will lift all across the area Tuesday night causing temperatures to rise overnight into Wednesday. Then the cold front will move through our area Wednesday bringing another chance for rain.

Most computer models suggest central North Carolina could see anywhere between 1 and 3 inches of rain over the next few days. The above precipitation forecast image from the National Weather Service agrees with that forecast of on average 2 inches of rain in central North Carolina.

Look for the rain to end by late Wednesday with dry weather for the end of the work week. Rain now looks to return to the forecast by Saturday.

Record Highs Sunday!

Sunshine prevailed Sunday and temperatures were able to climb to levels that either tied or broke records. Raleigh-Durham International recorded a high of 74 degrees, tying a record set 20 years earlier. Wilmington reached afternoon highs of 76 which also tied a record. The last time it got that warm on December 28th was in 1971.
North Myrtle Beach saw a new record high! 70 was the high yesterday, breaking the old record of 68 from 1954. Finally, New Bern reached a new record high on Sunday just after 2pm of 77-degrees. That broke the old record of 76 that had been in the books since 1971.
Temperatures this week will not reach record levels as we'll have a series of cold fronts cross over NC. We'll also have a change in our upper-level jet stream pattern ..that also has an effect on our temperatures. We had an upper-level ridge pattern over the SE United States which meant mild temperatures for us. This week we're dominated by a more zonal flow which is a west-to-east flow. That generally means temps that are closer to normal (our normal highs for the end of December are lower 50s for the Triangle region, mid to upper-50s along the coast). We'll get a shot of cold air as we get into the new year! Check out your Weather on the Ones Forecast at http://www.news14.com

Rainfall since Wednesday

Here's a look at rainfall around central and eastern North Carolina since Wednesday. (Most of the rain fell Thursday) --

• New Bern: 2.52"
• Havelock: 2.40"
• Wilmington: 1.82"
• Chapel Hill: 1.81"
• Fayetteville: 1.65"
• Raleigh-Durham: 1.55"
• Jacksonville: 1.42"
• Goldsboro: 1.19"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 1.17"
• Beaufort: 0.91"

Much of central and eastern North Carolina spent Thursday afternoon under Tornado Watches. A few Tornado Warnings were evening issued. Fortunately, there were no reports of any tornado touchdowns and no reports of any storm damage.

We expect quieter and cooler weather through the weekend with a warm up to start early next week.

Afternoon Storm Threat

It has been a busy morning so far in the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center, and it looks to only get busier this afternoon. As I write this post just after 10 am this morning, the Storm Prediction Center is closely monitoring the Carolinas and a Tornado Watch may soon be posted for a large part of South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may also be posted over the western Carolinas. If that happens, will have the latest advisories every 10 minutes on News 14 Carolina.

Today's stormy weather is the result of a potent low pressure system that developed over the Gulf of Mexico late last night and early this morning. This has been quite the storm already producing strong storms near the Gulf coast this morning and even snow in places like Houston, Texas and New Orleans, Louisiana.

Snowfall on freeway near New Orleans.

Snowfall on Bourbon Street in New Orleans this morning.

We do not anticipate winter weather here, but severe weather will be a threat as the low tracks across the Carolinas this afternoon. It now appears the worst of the weather may pass through our area between 2pm and 8pm. The severe weather threat includes heavy rains, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

If severe weather strikes this afternoon, do you know where you will seek shelter? Identify that location now so you can get there at a moment's notice. The safest place to be during a severe thunderstorm or tornado is in the center of a sturdy building on the lowest floor away from windows. You will want to put as many walls as you can between you and the outside. Large open buildings such as gyms and auditoriums do not provide enough protection. The safest places are usually basements, closets, hallways, or interior bathrooms.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the very latest on what could be a rapidly changing weather afternoon. We'll provide updates on our blog and through our Twitter updates as time allows. The most current information is available every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones only on Time Warner Cable channel 14.

If severe weather happens in your neighborhood, you can e-mail us your storm reports and pictures when it is safe to do so to weather@news14.com.

Follow us on Twitter --

• Joshua McKinney -- http://twitter.com/JLM_N14
• Lee Ringer-- http://twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hazardous Weather Update

Here's the latest update this morning on today's severe weather threat from the Raleigh National Weather Service Office....



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
634 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008


NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-121145-PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
634 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FORTY AND EIGHTY FIVE CORRIDOR FROM THE TRIAD TO HENDERSON AND ROXBORO....WHERE TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON. LESSERAMOUNTS... GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES... ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE AREAS. THE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING... PARTICULARLY NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS AND IN URBAN AREAS.

IN ADDITION... WARM AND MOIST AIR COUPLED WITH STRONG... TURNING WINDS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST FROM AROUND 1 PM TO 8PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT..

.SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

$$

Strong to Severe Storms Possible...

A Flash Flood Watch is en effect for much of the News 14 Carolina viewing area this evening and much of Thursday.

Flash Flood Watch Link

Severe storm threat ramps up dramatically overnight tonight and into Thursday as an area of low pressure heads towards the Carolinas. Instability, low level winds, and many parameters are coming together to allow for a 1-2 punch of severe storms. I'm concerned the first threat will come from strong storms moving on-shore that would impact the Coast and Coastal Plain. The second threat will come from a line of storms crossing the entire viewing area ahead of a cold front. It's safe to say I'd check in with the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center tonight before heading to bed and maybe leaving the weather radio on overnight tonight.

Day 1 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Here's the latest on the storm threat over the next couple of days as outlined in this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook from the Raleigh National Weather Service --

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
349 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-110900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
349 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SQUALL LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH EAST... EXITING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS LINE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY CONNECTED TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION... WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT UNTIL THE THREAT PASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE LOW TRACKS...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG LIFT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY CONNECTED TO LOCAL RADIO... TELEVISION...WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY UNTIL THE THREAT PASSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.
$$

Windy and colder Sunday

Today is the conclusion of Winter Weather Awareness Week in North Carolina.
Here is the final link to the National Weather Service's series about preparedness for the season:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/Winter_08_SATURDAY.pdf

An upper level disturbance will pair up with a dissipating cold front to bring us an increas in clouds for this afternoon and evening. We'll also see a possibility of snow flurries and passing moisture tries to work itself to the ground through dry air at the surface. When moisture encounters dry air it evaporates. Temperatures fall because that evaporation cools the air. So if any precipitation does make its way to ground level, we could see either patchy drizzle or flurries depending on our temperatures this afternoon and evening.

High pressure moving into the region late tonight into tomorrow will encounter an intensifying low off the East coast, so we'll expect gusty winds since we're in the middle of those systems. If you spent a lot of time putting out holiday decorations, make sure you secure them before bed tonight, as winds will blow in from the north at about 10-15mph with higher gusts tonight and Sunday morning!
Sunshine will dominate the day Sunday as will breezy conditions. Winds will still blow at about 10-15mph but we'll see fewer gusts as the day goes on. Highs in the 40s will feel much colder than that due to wind chill.
Sunday night will have clear to mostly clear skies and light winds which means we'll have a very cold start to the day Monday. Out-the-door temps for the morning commute are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s!
Wilmington's Christmas Parade is Sunday! Hope to see you there!

Have a great rest of your weekend.

NC Snow Climatology

This week has been Winter Weather Preparedness week in North Carolina. Yesterday I wrote about fire dangers in the home and provided links to the National Weather Service information from earlier this week.

I'm a little limited on time this afternoon, so I have enclosed the link directly to the National Weather Service information on today's subject. I'll have the concluding information for this week on this blog tomorrow (Saturday).

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/Winter_08_FRIDAY.pdf

Wilmington Christmas parade is this Sunday..if you're attending, look for me and for our Chief Meteorologist Gary Stephenson in the lineup! Gary made the decorations for our News 14 Carolina vehicle, so be sure to tell him how much you like it!

Winter Weather Preparedness

This week is Winter Weather Preparedness Week in North Carolina and today we're not talking about winter weather directly but how winter temperatures can affect the safety of your home.
The following information is provided courtesy of the National Weather Service, The American Red Cross and the National Fire Protection Association. Its no secret that Americans see a higher number of house fires once the mercury takes a tumble. As a matter of fact, statistics show that a house fire is reported to a fire department in the US every one and a half minutes. Someone dies in a house fire every two and a half hours.
Structure fires claimed nearly 3000 lives in 2007 across the United States and 84 percent of those fires occurred in the home.

There are a number of other statistics provided, and I'll provide the link here to the National Weather Service report: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/Winter_08_THURSDAY.pdf

What you need to walk away with today are some common sense reminders of measures you can take to minimize the chance and impact of fire.
Again, from the National Weather Service report:
1) Be careful when using candles and oil lamps, especially with children nearby.
2) Inspect foreplaces, wood stoves and your chimney.
3) Keep the holiday decorations away from your fireplace if you plan to use it as a heat source.
4) Check the smoke detector and have a working fire extinguisher (Do you know how to use yours in a pinch?).
5) Don't overload your outlets and be careful when using extension cords.

Here's a list of this week's information on winter preparedness (through today..I'll post Friday's link tomorrow) from the National Weather Service:

Sunday: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/Winter_08_SUNDAY.pdf
Monday: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/Winter_08_MONDAY.pdf
Tuesday: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/Winter_08_TUESDAY.pdf
Wednesday:http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/Winter_08_WEDNESDAY.pdf

Still to cover this week: how to prepare when winter weather comes this way and the factor of winter weather that makes everyone an equal on the road: freezing rain and sleet.

Afternoon Update

Twitter Updates

If you have checked our blog over the past several days, you may have noticed our new Twitter updates on the upper right side of the page. This will provide us a way to provide quick updates when there is not time for a complete blog post or a complete post is not needed. Twitter will also allow you to interact with us during times of active weather such as severe weather or snow. If you use Twitter, be sure to follow us and stay tuned for the latest.

Again, you'll find my Twitter updates on the upper right side of the blog or through this direct link -- http://twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Friday's Snow

Snow flurries and snow showers fell across parts of North Carolina early this past Friday morning. Here's a look at some viewer photos sent to the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center.

The most snow fell across portions of Triad as shown in this photo from a viewer in Stoneville--

Around the Triangle, just enough snow fell for a light dusting on some cars as shown by these photos from a News 14 Carolina viewer off of Kent Road in Raleigh --

And a very light dusting could be seen just southeast of Raleigh shown in this picture taken near Garner by News 14 Carolina viewer Bryan Lassiter --

No snow is in the forecast through the Thanksgiving week in our area. However, the North Carolina mountains may pick up some light snow later tonight.

Winter Outlook Updated and Friday's Chance for Snow

The recent cold weather has had a lot of folks asking about the outlook for the upcoming winter. NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center released an update to the winter forecast today...

Based on this forecast, North Carolina can expect near normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation. Keep in mind, that is on average across the entire winter season. Unfortunately, you can't use that information to determine how much snow we may see this winter.

Speaking of snow, we had a few early snow flurries on Tuesday and we could very well see more early Friday morning. A disturbance combined with another blast of cold air should be enough to squeeze out some snow showers. If the snow comes down fast enough, a light dusting will be possible on grassy surfaces. The ground temperatures are currently running near 40 across the area. That combined with early morning temperatures just above freezing means we should not see an impact from the snow showers even though they could be falling during the morning commute.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest forecast. If you see snow Friday, let us know and send us your weather pictures to weather@news14.com.

Is Snow Rare in November?

Tuesday's snow flurries have had folks wanting to know just how rare snow is in North Carolina during the month of November. While snow does not fall too often here in November, it has happened before. Back on November 19, 2000 accumulating snow fell across central North Carolina. The Triangle saw up to 2 inches on some grassy surfaces.

You can read more about the November 2000 snow by clicking to http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/

Snow Flurries!

The first snowflakes of the season were reported across eastern North Carolina Tuesday. The Weather on the Ones Forecast Center received reports of flurries and snow showers from the Raleigh-Durham area to the Sandhills to the coast. Here's a look at some viewer pictures of the flurries...

Photo of snow flurries in Durham submitted by a News 14 Carolina viewer.

Snow flurries in Havelock submitted by a News 14 Carolina viewer.

If you have photos of Tuesday's flurries, you can share them with us by e-mailing them to weather@news14.com.

November 15, 2008 Tornadoes

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has released a detailed report from Saturday morning's tornadoes. You can view the report through the following link --
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20081115/tornado.survey.summary.pdf

Confirmation of EF-3 Tornado

This information from the National Weather service....

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
600 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008
...TORNADO SURVEY OF EF-3 TORNADO NEAR WILSON AND ELM CITY IN WILSON
COUNTY.


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WILSON COUNTY
EMERGENCY SERVICES AND WILSON FIRE AND RESCUE...DETERMINED THAT AN
EF-3 TORNADO OCCURRED IN WILSON COUNTY.

THE TORNADO OCCURRED ALONG A DISCONTINUOUS...APPROXIMATELY EIGHT-MILE PATH THAT BEGAN WITH MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A DWELLING AND A SNAPPED TREE ALONG HARRISON
DRIVE JUST SOUTH OF WARD BOULEVARD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
WAS THEN NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST...ALONG LONDON CHURCH ROAD...SOUTH
OF ROUTE 1330.
ON LONDON CHURCH ROAD...ONE HOME WAS COMPLETELY DESTROYED AND
SWEPT OFF OF ITS FOUNDATION. BASED ON EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS AND THE
DAMAGE...FIRE AND RESCUE ESTIMATE THE HOME ROLLED AS MANY AS FOUR
TIMES. IN THIS HOME...THERE WAS UNFORTUNATELY ONE FATALITY AND
TWO INJURIES.


ACROSS THE ROAD FROM THIS HOME TO THE NORTHEAST...THE UPPER
PORTION OF A HOME WAS DESTROYED...AND ANOTHER HOME HAD A ROOF
COMPLETELY BLOWN AWAY WITH TREES ON TOP OF IT. IN THIS LATTER
HOME...EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS NOTED THERE WERE TWO MORE INJURIES...
CONDITIONS UNKNOWN. OTHER EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS SUGGESTED THERE WAS
LITTLE NOISE WITH THE EVENT UNTIL THE TORNADO STRUCK. SEVERAL
INDIVIDUALS WERE AWAKE FOR VARIOUS REASONS AROUND 330 AM...AND IT
WAS JUST A FEW MINUTES AFTER THIS WHEN THE TORNADO STRUCK THE
LONDON CHURCH ROAD AREA...ESTIMATED TO BE AT 340 AM.


THE TORNADO THEN FOLLOWED A DISCONTINUOUS PATH INTO ELM CITY.
THERE WERE NUMEROUS INDICATIONS OF TREE DAMAGE IN ELM CITY WITH A
PORCH ROOF BLOWN OFF...AND OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED OR TOPPLED.
FINALLY...THE LAST NOTICEABLE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ALONG ROUTE
1400...AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF HEFNER ROAD AND
ROUTE 1402...WHERE SMALL CLUSTERS OF TREES WERE SNAPPED AND
OUTBUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED. THE DAMAGE IN AND NORTHEAST OF ELM CITY
WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF-0 DAMAGE.
TIME/DATE: ESTIMATED FROM 330 AM TO 345 AM EST, SATURDAY NOVEMBER
15, 2008

PEAK WIND: 140 MPH
PATH LENGTH: APPROXIMATELY 8 MILES DISCONTINUOUS
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
INJURIES: 4 KNOWN
FATALITIES: 1
$$
DJF/RWH

EF-Scale for Tornado Ratings

If you've been following news coverage of this weekend's tornadic thunderstorms that came across Johnston and Wilson counties, you're hearing about the strength of these tornadic winds expressed as 'E-F' instead of 'F' (for example, 'EF-2' rather than 'F-2').

Some of you may be wondering why thats happening in the news these days. After all, its supposed to be F-1, F-2, etc. Right? Thats how it was when you were growing up.

You're right as far as it having *been* classified that way before, but in 2007 meteorologists started using a new scale. Its still based on the Fujita Scale (the 'F' scale) but this is called the 'Enhanced Fujita' scale.
The scale still represents increasing degrees of damage from tornadic winds.
It was revised to reflect what was being seen out in the field when surveyors examined the aftermath of tornadoes. It also had to start taking into account more types of structures, different building materials and construction quality. It also has additional categories of vegetation.
In other words while storms may stay the same, the things they encounter may change over time. The science which we use to understand these storms also evolves over time.

The Storm Prediction Center has a wealth of information for you on this subject. Here's the link.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/

PD

Another Round of Storms Possible This Afternoon

Quick note, as we're evaluating the possibility of a squall line that could bring severe weather to our viewing area this afternoon and evening ahead of this vigorous cold front. Storm Prediction Center is getting ready to possibly issue another tornado watch, so tune to your Weather on the Ones Center for your forecast.
Tomorrow's forecast is expected to be calmer and cooler.
We'll update you on last night's tornadic storms later this weekend.
Pati

Governor Easley to Survey Storm Damage

State of North Carolina Office of the Governor

Michael F. Easley
Governor
Release: IMMEDIATE
Contact: Seth Effron
Date: 11/15/2008
Phone: (919) 733-5612
GOV. EASLEY’S STATEMENT ON STORM DAMAGE

Raleigh - Gov. Mike Easley issued this statement today following damage from the storm that passed through central and eastern North Carolina late Friday and early Saturday morning:

“I want to express my sympathy to the families who lost loved ones in this damaging storm as well as my concern for those who were injured, have had homes and property destroyed or damaged. We will do all we can to assist those in the affected areas. After local officials have had the opportunity to assess the areas, I will survey the damage.”

Pleasant weather Sunday, showers expected mid-week