Much of North Carolina has been placed under a "slight risk" for severe weather. Our greatest threat for stormy weather may come late Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Thursday night will be one of those night that you'll want a NOAA Weather Radio on standby mode in your bedroom to alert you to any severe weather warnings.
We'll continue to closely follow the latest weather data coming into the forecast center. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates.
Scientists with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced this week that it appears El Nino is fading and we may be transitioning into a La Nina phase. El Nino and La Nina describe interactions between the ocean and atmosphere that can affect weather patterns across the globe. Warmer ocean waters in the tropical Pacific typically signifies an El Nino pattern, and the cooling of those waters represents La Nina.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined eastern North Carolina for the slight risk of severe thunderstorms. If storms develop in this area, they will have the potential to produce gusty winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Any severe weather Sunday is not expected to be as widespread as Saturday's severe weather across the lower Mississippi River Valley. However, we'll have to keep a close eye on Stormtracker Doppler radar through the afternoon. Stay with News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates every 10 minutes.
Thursday was a tragic day for fires in central North Carolina. Windy weather and dry conditions allowed fires to spread rapidly, and that certainly was the case as we watched over two dozen townhome units go up in flames in north Raleigh. You can read the latest on this and other fires around the area Thursday on our website at www.news14.com.
The National Weather Service's Doppler radar picked up on smoke plumes from the north Raleigh townhomes fire and the brush fire in Hoke County.
The above satellite image from Thursday afternoon also shows the fires. The darker pixels shows hotspots created by the fires.
Today isn't a much better day for fire weather. While a fire weather watch was cancelled this morning, all outdoor burning should be avoided today. Northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph along with low humidities could still allow any fire to spread rapidly.
Our breezy weather should diminish this Friday evening, and our attention in the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center will turn to a potent storm system developing over the nation's midsection.
The Storm Prediction Center (www.spc.noaa.gov) is watching an area from Kansas to Oklahoma to north Texas for the potential of a severe weather outbreak including tornadoes this afternoon.
That same storm system could produce severe weather across parts of the southeast on Saturday. The SPC is watching an area from Arkansas to Louisiana to Mississippi for the greatest threat of severe weather on Saturday.
The storm will eventually spread rain toward North Carolina on Sunday. While we don't look for a severe weather outbreak in our area, thunderstorms will be possible in southeastern North Carolina. We'll keep an eye out for the possibility for a strong storm or two. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates through the weekend.
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICALIt's important to pay attention to what is happening on dry and windy days. You'll usually hear us say do not conduct any open burning and be careful using open flames. As always, never throw cigarettes out of a moving car. Fires can begin at a moments notice on a day like today. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and The Weather On The Ones forecast for more details on our current weather and when conditions are expected to improve.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A COMBINATION
OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.
We'll continue to fine tune the forecast as needed into the weekend. Stay with News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates every 10 minutes.
It's been so cold in the Midwest that parts of Lake Michigan started to freeze in February! This image was taken from visible satellite and shows ice gathering on the western edges of the lake. Some cities closest to the forming ice are Chicago and Milwaukee. Conditions were nearly ideal to create lake ice as temperatures dipped below freezing from January 24 to February 19. During that stretch the mercury was well below zero for many hours at a time. Follow this link to see what forecasters in Chicago are saying about a return to milder weather this week.
New York snow photo from News 10 Now
At first glance of Friday's radar image, the answer would be -- yes, it was snowing. But, did you see any snow Friday afternoon? I didn't and mostly likely the only snow in North Carolina was in the form of isolated flurries in the mountains.
No, nothing was wrong with radars across the state Friday. There was precipitation falling from the clouds, but it was just too dry for any of that snow to reach the ground. Dewpoints at 4pm (same hour the radar image was captured from) were -4 in Raleigh-Durham, -6 in Greensboro, -7 in Fayetteville, and -13 in Winston-Salem. That's some dry air! All the snow from the clouds evaporated before we ever saw any of it.
So will we see any snow in the next few days? We will be watching a storm system that will spread precipitation across the state on Tuesday. As of now, it appears that most of that precipitation would be in the form of rain. As low pressure develops off our coast late Tuesday, it will draw some cooler air into our region. If there is still some precipitation around at that time, the precipitation may end as light sleet or a light wintry mix. It would probably be too light to cause any problems. However, if the track of this storm system is somewhat different than the current forecast, the precipitation that we see could be different.
We'll continue to monitor the latest weather data and keep you informed with the latest forecast. Just stay tuned for Weather on the Ones only on News 14 Carolina!
Viewer photo from snow in Fayetteville on February 1, 2007The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh has released an excellent discussion on the hows and whys of last week's winter weather. Snow totals of up to 2 inches were reported in the southern Piedmont and Sandhills of the state. For those of you who are really into weather, the discussion is a great read. Check it out at the following link --
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070201/
For snow lovers looking for more snow this winter, the news isn't too good for the next few days. While cool weather is in the forecast through the weekend, the forecast will remain dry. The next weather system that could produce precipitation for our area may come Tuesday of next week. It's really too early to make a definite call on this system right now. Some of the latest model data suggests it may be just warm enough for this to be all rain. We'll have to watch the temperatures closely. It is winter in North Carolina and a lot could change between now and then. We'll keep you posted. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates!
It appears as if this will be the lowest the temps will go this week. A combination of clouds and a moderating airmass will keep lows in the middle to upper 20s through the rest of this work week. Down the road there could be another outbreak of Arctic air, but this time the two branches of the jet stream may be coming together to raise the chances of a future storm off the coast. It's still too early to see any storms developing on the horizon, but this pattern will need to be monitored for the next week and a half to two weeks.
Photos from National Weather Service Forecast Office in Tampa Bay, FLGroundhog's Day was a tragic day for residents of central Florida as devastating tornadoes ripped through the state. By now, you've probably seen photos and television footage of the damage. The scenes look more like tornado damage across Tornado Alley in the spring, but these photos are from central Florida in the middle of winter. The damage was also done in the middle of the night. Just proof that damaging tornadoes can occur anywhere, anytime of the year, and anytime of the day or night.
At last check, the Associated Press reported at least 20 people were killed in the tornadoes. Tornado warnings were issued before the tornadoes struck, but many people probably did not hear those warnings since the tornadoes hit in the middle of the night.
Like most communities in North Carolina, the communities devastated by Friday morning's tornadoes did not have warning sirens. However, there is a way to be warned of severe weather even in the middle of the night. It's as simple as purchasing a NOAA Weather Radio. These radios sound an alarm anytime a severe weather warning is issued for your area. The latest models can be programmed to sound an alarm for only your county and only the warnings you want to know about like tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings. Many electronic stores and online retailers have these radios in stock for less than $50. NOAA Weather Radios should be a must have in your home just like smoke detectors and carbon monoxide detectors.
In other news from the Florida tornadoes, this will be the first time the new Enhanced Fujita Scale is used to rate the strength of tornadoes. This new scale replaces the old Fujita scale that has been used in the past. According to the National Weather Service, the new Enhanced Fujita, or EF, scale was developed to rate tornadoes in a more consistent and accurate manner.
The EF scale still rates tornadoes from zero to five, but the ranges in wind speed of each category are said to be more accurate. Twenty-eight damage indicators such as building type, structures, and trees are used to rate tornadoes.
You can read more about Friday morning's tornadoes, NOAA Weather Radio, and the Enhanced Fujita Scale at the following links --
Which forecast do you believe -- the forecast from a Groundhog or the forecast of a meteorologist? Wait... maybe you shouldn't answer that.Friday was a big day for weather fans all across the country -- Groundhog's Day. The famous Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this morning in Pennsylvania. North Carolina's own Sir Walter Wally also did not see his shadow today. According to Groundhog's Day folklore that means both groundhogs were in agreement that winter won't last much longer.
We may have some doubts to that forecast come next week. Bitterly cold air will move into North Carolina during the first half of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings could feature lows in the teens. Highs on Tuesday may only warm into the 30s despite mostly sunny conditions.
For more on Groundhog's Day in North Carolina including meteorologist Jess Torpey's interview with Sir Walter Wally, visit the following link -- http://rdu.news14.com/content/top_stories/default.asp?ArID=99468
You can let us know what's happening in your neighborhood by e-mailing us at weather@news14.com. That's the same e-mail address where you can send us your winter weather photos. Check out some of those photos on our website at www.news14.com
Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina -- live weather updates continue every 10 minutes!
Viewer photo from Goldsboro Thursday morning. 
Viewer photo from Fayetteville.We've received numerous reports of snow falling all over the News 14 Carolina viewing area from Durham to Raleigh to Oxford to Goldsboro to Fayetteville and points in between.
Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates through the day. You can let us know what's happening in your neighborhood by e-mailing us at weather@news14.com
