Sunday, April 29, 2007
Ozone is not always a bad thing. In the highest levels of the atmosphere, stratospheric ozone protects us from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays. Ozone near the ground level is not so helpful. Ground-level ozone is produced by pollution from cars and industrial sources. This pollution in high levels can affect those with respiratory problems.
The North Carolina Division of Air Quality issues their forecasts based on a color code -- green, yellow, orange, red, and purple. In order, those colors represent good, moderate, unhealthy for sensitive groups, unhealthy for everyone, and very unhealthy levels of ozone.
Ozone levels are typically higher on hot summer afternoons when the air becomes stagnant and locks in pollution. With warmer weather in the forecast for this week, the first forecast for Monday calls for a code yellow day, or moderate levels of ozone for both the Triangle and the Sandhills. In their forecast discussion Sunday afternoon, the Division of Air Quality indicated that a code orange forecast made be needed for Tuesday for some metropolitan areas in the state.
You can find the latest air quality forecasts by tuning to News 14 Carolina. We'll have the latest ozone forecasts in our Weather on the Ones reports airing at :11 and :41 after the hour.
Follow these links to find out more about ozone and air quality forecasts --
Tuesday looks to be the warmest day we have had all season. In fact, the last time the high temperature reached 90 or higher was August 30, 2006 when the high was 94. Tuesday may also come close to setting a record. The record high for May 1 at the Raleigh-Durham is 90.
A front will slide into the state Wednesday, and that should bring an end to the early week heat wave by the end of the week. We'll be ahead of the front during the day Wednesday, so it will be warm again with highs in the mid 80s. Temperatures will return closer to normal levels for this time of year for Thursday and Friday. That front should also bring our next chance for rain in the form of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Stay with News 14 Carolina this week for the latest forecasts. You can count on our Weather on the Ones updates every 10 minutes!
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Friday, April 27, 2007
- Fayetteville: 87
- Goldsboro: 87
- Laurinburg-Maxton: 87
- Rocky Mount-Wilson: 87
- Lumberton: 86
- Southern Pines: 86
- Raleigh-Durham: 85
- Louisburg: 84
- Chapel Hill: 83
Temperatures won't be quite as warm this weekend as we look for highs in the mid to upper 70s. That's still near to just above normal for this time of year. Highs in the 80s return for next week. By Tuesday, afternoon temperatures may climb as high as the upper 80s to even near 90 in some spots.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
- Erwin: 88
- Fayetteville: 88
- Goldsboro : 88
- Southern Pines: 88
- Laurinburg: 87
- Raleigh-Durham: 87
- Rocky Mount-Wilson: 87
- Louisburg: 86
- Lumberton: 86
- Chapel Hill: 85
- Henderson-Oxford: 84
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Afternoon highs will briefly drop to the upper 70s for the weekend, but the 80s should return for next week.
In addition to staying warm, our forecast remains fairly dry. The chances for a good soaking rainfall are slim to none over the next several days. There is at least a slight chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday, but we do not anticipate any widespread rains.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
The news is even worse for the Gulf coast. The NC State forecast says a landfalling tropical cyclone is "virtually guranteed" along the Gulf coast with a 99.8% probability. The team predicts a 75% chance for a hurricane to strike the Gulf coast and a 56% the a major hurricane will strike the area.
The forecast is better for the northeast coastline defined as the area from Virginia to Maine. Only a 24% chance for a landfalling tropical system is predicted for that region.
Here's a breakdown of the full NC State forecast --
Atlantic Basin (Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean)
- 12-13 tropical storms
- 8-9 hurricanes
- 4-5 major hurricanes
Southeast Coast (Southern tip of Florida to North Carolina)
- 1-3 landfalling tropical cyclones (86% probability for at least one tropical cyclone to make landfall)
- 1-2 landfalling hurricanes (74% probability for at least one hurricane to make landfall)
Gulf of Mexico Coast (All U.S. Gulf Coast including west coast of Florida)
- 5-7 tropical cyclones in the Gulf basin with 4-6 tropical cyclones to make landfall (99.8% probability for at least one tropical cyclone making landfall)
- 2-3 hurricanes in the Gulf basin with 1-2 hurricanes to make landfall (75% probability for at least one hurricane making landfall)
- 0-1 major hurricanes in the Gulf basin (56% probability for at least one major hurricane making landfall)
Northeast Coast (Virginia to Maine)
- most likely no landfalling tropical systems along this stretch of coast with only a 24% probability for a landfalling tropical cyclone and a 5% chance for a landfalling hurricane
The NC State hurricane forecast teams points out that their forecast is only experimental and urges users to use caution using the forecast and that forecast users should take full responsibility for any potential risks from using the forecast. The team also states, "Hurricane prediction is not an exact science and large errors are known in such forecasts."
Thanks to the big Nor'Easter earlier this week, tropical storm force wind gusts were reported across our region on Monday. Many folks lost power as the strong winds toppled trees and power lines. Here's a look back at peak wind gusts from Monday from around central North Carolina --
- Greensboro: 62mph
- Winston-Salem: 56mph
- Lexington: 54mph
- Burlington: 54mph
- Duke Forest: 53mph
- Fort Bragg: 51mph
- Franklinton: 50mph
- Goldsboro: 50mph
- Fayetteville: 48mph
- Raleigh-Durham: 48mph
- Chapel Hill: 46mph
- Asheboro: 45mph
- Pope Air Force Base: 44mph
- Southern Pines: 43mph
- Louisburg: 36mph
You can see viewer photos from Monday's windy weather in the previous blog post. If you ever have weather photos to share with us, you can email them to email@example.com.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Above two photos of storm clouds over Wake County from News 14 Carolina viewer Michelle Pepper.
Thanks to all our viewers who sent us reports and photos this weekend. If you have weather photos to share with us, send your pictures to firstname.lastname@example.org.
We've received several picutres of hail around the area this afternoon and hope to have those posted later this evening on our weather blog. You can send your weather reports and pictures to email@example.com.
You can send send severe weather reports and photos from your neighborhood to us by e-mailing us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
A Tornado Watch has been posted from the Triangle to the south and east until 3pm Sunday afternoon. The atmosphere remains unstable across central and eastern North Carolina this morning. Strong to severe storms are still a possibility into the afternoon hours.
Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest advisories.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
The Storm Prediction Center still has central and eastern North Carolina under a "slight risk" for severe weather --
If strong storms develop, damaging winds will be the biggest threat. Heavy rains may be a threat for some spots as well. While we could use a good soaking rain, heavy rain falling too fast may produce some flooding issues. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch through 6am for the central part of the state. Two to three inches of rain is possible in the watch area. Elsewhere, one to inches of rain is possible.
The Weather on the Ones Forecast Center will be staffed through the early morning hours to keep you informed. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest.
We may see a few scattered shower or thunderstorms this evening, but the strongest storms and heaviest rains should arrive after 11pm and continue through the early morning Sunday. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch across central North Carolina from midnight through 6am. In the News 14 Carolina viewing area, that watch includes areas from the Triangle to the Triad.
News 14 Carolina will carry tonight's Bobcats basketball game against the Bucks at 8:30pm. We'll have forecast updates at the bottom of your TV screen during the game. You can also catch weather updates during halftime and immediately following the game. Plus, you'll find the latest radar views from around the region on our weather page at news14.com.
Severe weather is likely today in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and that threat could shift into the Carolinas tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has placed an area from the Gulf Coast into South Carolina under a "moderate risk" for severe weather. Central and eastern North Carolina is now under a "slight risk" for severe weather.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Today the storm is producing snow in Colorado, rain in Oklahoma, and severe weather is likely from East Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. In fact, a fairly significant severe weather outbreak is a possibility late this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed part of that area under a "moderate risk" for severe weather.
On Saturday that "moderate risk" of severe weather shifts to parts of the Southeast --
Tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds are possible within the moderate risk areas both Friday and Saturday.
The storm system will then move toward the Carolinas bringing us rain late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. While the risk for severe weather is not nearly as high for us, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. We'll follow the storm through the weekend and have the latest with Weather on the Ones updates on News 14 Carolina. When you are away from your TV this weekend, you can find updates here on our weather blog and on our website at news14.com.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Here's a look at selected rain totals from Wednesday through early Thursday:
- Greensboro: 2.05"
- Raleigh-Durham: 1.66'
- Winston-Salem: 1.35"
- Chapel Hill: 1.29"
- Asheboro: 1.22"
- Fayetteville: 1.19"
- Burlington: 0.78"
- Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.80"
- Mount Airy: 0.66"
- Clayton: 0.64"
- Goldsboro: 0.60"
- Lumberton: 0.36"
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Here's a look at morning lows this Sunday around the News 14 Carolina viewing area:
- Southern Pines: 21
- Lumberton: 22
- Rocky Mount-Wilson: 23
- Asheboro: 25
- Greensboro: 25
- Mount Airy: 25
- Smithfield: 25
- Chapel Hill: 26
- Goldsboro: 26
- Fayetteville: 27
- Louisburg: 27
- Raleigh-Durham: 27
- Burlington: 28
- Winston-Salem: 29
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Here's a look at the numbers to watch this weekend --
- Saturday record low -- 27 in 2002
- Sunday record low -- 28 in 1975
For Greensboro --
- Saturday record low -- 24 in 1982
- Sunday record low -- 28 in 1990
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
The number of storms during a season does not really tell us how coastal locations can be impacted. Seventeen storms could form and all of them could stay out to sea. Then again, fewer storms could form and they could all impact land. Other information from the Colorado State forecast does predict the probability of landfall. The updated forecast calls for a 74% chance that a major hurricane will strike somewhere along the United States coastline. The forecasters say there is a 50% chance a major hurricane would strike the east coast of the United States.
It is important to remember that this is just a forecast. Many forecasts released before the 2006 season called for an active season. In the end, last year was quieter than expected. Of course, it was only two years ago when the season set a record for the number of storms that formed. That was the hurricane season that brought that brought several devastating storms including Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.
Can we say for certain whether a devastating storm will impact the U.S. this year? The answer is no, but we need to be prepared. The Atlantic hurricane season begins in less than two months on June 1. Are you ready?
You can read the entire 2007 hurricane forecast from Colorado State on their website -- http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2007/april2007/