Hazardous Weather Outlook Update

Here's an update on this weekend's hazardous weather outlook from the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh --

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AR EEXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT... ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY MOVEEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

March 28, 1984: Carolinas Outbreak

Saturday will mark 25 years since the deadliest tornado outbreak on record in the Carolinas...

Twenty-two tornadoes were reported that day. 57 people were killed in the Carolinas and some estimates show over 1000 were injured.

The tornadoes developed the afternoon of March 28, 1984 in South Carolina devastating areas around Newberry and Winnsboro. Other tornadoes in the Palmetto State eventually tracked into North Carolina. In the town of Red Springs located in Robeson County, every building was reported to have some type of damage.

As we remember that tornado outbreak 25 years ago, we must prepare for the threat for severe weather this March 28. While we do not anticipate anything like 1984 at this time, severe weather including isolated tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, and hail will be a threat. Saturday's severe weather threat across the state will begin in the afternoon and continue through the night perhaps into early Sunday morning.

While storms are expected Saturday afternoon, another round of storms could move through much of the state late Saturday night into early Sunday morning when most folks will be sleeping. Unfortunately, North Carolinas ranks as the number state in killer nighttime tornadoes. If severe weather hits while you are sleeping this weekend, do you have a way to be alerted? NOAA Weather Radios provide instant alarms to severe weather warnings and are programmable to the type of watches or warnings and the counties you want to be alerted to. Just like every home should have a smoke detector, every home in North Carolina should have a NOAA Weather Radio. They can be purchased from most electronic stores for under $50. Be sure to purchase one with S.A.M.E. technology, this will allow you to program your radio for the alerts and counties you would like to know about.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com through the weekend. The Weather on the Ones Forecast Center will be staffed around the clock. We'll have updates every 10 minutes with continuous updates if necessary.

Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Weekend

Here's this morning's hazardous weather outlook for Saturday through Sunday issued by the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh --

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

A STRONG WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE IS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE AND HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR.

A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

FINALLY... GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS.

Update on Rain and Weekend Storm Chance

Light rain showers began across central North Carolina late yesterday, and now rain will continue off and on through the rest of the week and into the weekend.


The latest rainfall outlook through the weekend posted above shows much of our area could still see a couple of inches of rain. The western Carolinas could see over three inches, while parts of Alabama and Georgia could see over five inches!

Severe weather has been ongoing since last night across the Gulf coast states. There are reports this morning for early morning tornadoes in Mississippi and some storm damage in Alabama. The severe weather threat will continue along the Gulf coast this afternoon. Here in North Carolina, we'll just see occasional showers today and tomorrow with the possibility for just some isolated thunder.

Our chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will come late Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, and early Sunday when a line of storms will move across the Carolinas. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the southeast including all of the Carolinas outlined for a slight risk of severe weather Saturday.

Damaging straight line winds, hail, and tornadoes will be possible in the slight risk area. Details to the severe weather threat and timing still need to be ironed out. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest in our Weather on the Ones updates.

Late March is often an active time for severe weather in the southeast. It is interesting to note that this Saturday will mark the 25th anniversary of one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the Carolinas. More on the 1984 Carolinas Outbreak tomorrow here on the blog...

Rain for the End of the Week; Storms for the Weekend?

Rain looks to be a good bet over the next several days and we are watching for the potential for strong thunderstorms over the weekend.


Here's an updated look at the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days as forecast by the National Weather Service...

The southeast will see a lot of rain with flooding a possibility along the Gulf coast. We may see up to 2 inches between now and the weekend. Look for only light rain showers by late this afternoon and evening. The rain should pick up for Thursday. We may see a break in the rain late Thursday through early Friday, but another round of rain is possible during the day Friday.

And, there is more rain expected over the weekend that may come in the form of thunderstorms. Friday afternoon, low pressure will be developing over the southeast that should spread stormy weather over much of that region into the weekend. The timing on that system arriving here is still a little uncertain, but look for showers and thunderstorms to become likely late Saturday into early Sunday. Some of the latest weather data this morning suggests some of those storms may become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined all of the Carolinas for the threat for severe weather Saturday...

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest on the threat for storms with our Weather on the Ones updates available every 10 minutes. You can also stay connected with updates here on our weather blog plus now you can follow updates from our team of meteorologists on Facebook and Twitter:

• Meteorologist Lee Ringer on Facebook
• Meteorologist Joshua McKinney on Facebook
• Meteorologist Pati Darak on Facebook
• Meteorologist Lee Ringer on Twitter
• Meteorologist Joshua McKinney on Twitter
• Meteorologist Pati Darak on Twitter

Return to Wet Weather Pattern...

After a pleasant and mild start to the week, this week will end on a wet note. Quite a bit of rain is expected over the southeast over the next several days....

The above graphic is a forecast from the National Weather Service for the amount of rainfall expected across the country over the next 5 days. The heaviest rains are forecast over the Gulf coast states where over 5 inches of rain is possible in some spots. While we do not expect that much here in the Carolinas, our area could see up to a couple of inches over the next 5 days.

Our rain chances will begin late Wednesday when a few sprinkles of rain or light rain showers will be possible. Look for the rain to pick up for Thursday and Friday. We may get a break in the rain late Friday into Saturday before a front pushes through the state over the weekend. The timing on that front is still uncertain at the moment but it could bring another round of rain including thunderstorms late Saturday or early Sunday.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest forecasts through the week...

Rain Since Friday

• Raleigh-Durham: 2.54"
• Chapel Hill: 2.18"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 1.89"
• Wilmington: 1.49"
• Jacksonville: 0.94"
• Beaufort: 0.90"
• Fayetteville: 0.87"
• New Bern: 0.86"
• Goldsboro: 0.82"
• Havelock: 0.68"
• Laurinburg: 0.39"
• Lumberton: 0.29"

Rain Update -- Monday Morning

As of 7am this morning, here's a look at rainfall totals from around our area since Friday:

• Raleigh-Durham: 2.13"
• Chapel Hill: 1.95"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 1.53"
• Fayetteville: 0.60"
• New Bern: 0.44"
• Laurinburg: 0.32"
• Goldsboro: 0.31"
• Lumberton: 0.20"
• Jacksonville: 0.19"
• Havelock: 0.11"
• Beaufort: 0.04"
• Wilmington: 0.03"

Rainfall Update

By now, you probably have heard about the upcoming weekend forecast. It's a wet one. Light rain should begin Friday. Off and on rain will likely continue through the weekend and into early next week. Based on the latest weather data this morning, weekend rain totals should add up to about an inch.

While we don't always look forward to a wet weekend, the rainy forecast is not all bad news...

This week's drought monitor shows "abnormally dry" conditions over much of central and eastern North Carolina with drought conditions in western parts of the state. This weekend's rains will help to alleviate some of this year's rainfall deficit.

As of this morning, here's a look at rainfall deficits compared to normal year to date rainfall at select sites in the state --

• Lumberton: -5.96"
• New Bern: -5.43"
• Wilmington: -5.43"
• Asheville: -4.77"
• Raleigh-Durham: -3.13"
• Greensboro: -2.56"
• Asheville: -2.22"

Much Cooler Weather Ahead...

Ever since last weekend, we have enjoyed much warmer than normal temperatures for early March including a record breaking 84 on Monday. The warm weather is about to come to a halt as much colder air moves into the Carolinas. The rest of the week, the weekend, and early next week may all feature colder than normal weather.

The latest 6-10 day and 8-14 temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center both forecast colder than normal temperatures in our region of the country.

A front moving in North Carolina late today will bring the first cool down for Thursday when afternoon temperatures will only reach the 50s. Rain will become likely by Friday. The clouds and rain on Friday will lock central North Carolina into a wedge of cool air and afternoon temperatures around the Triangle may struggle to reach 40. Most of Friday will be in the 30s with off and on rain. Light freezing rain may be possible Friday morning for some areas around the Triad, mostly north and west of the Triangle.

What a change from the start of the week to the end of the week! Cloudy, cool, and wet weather will likely last through the weekend. Some of the latest computer model forecasts this morning suggest that the wet weather may continue through the first half of next week.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones for the latest forecast information.

Severe Weather Season -- Are You Ready?

This week started with snow in the Carolinas and highs in the 30s. By the end of this weekend, we may see high temperatures near 80 degrees. March can bring wild swings in our weather. Those wild swings in weather can also include severe weather. That is why the first week of March has been designated as Severe Weather Awareness Week for the state. Severe weather can happen any time of of the year, but it is more common during the upcoming spring months.

When you think of of severe weather, you may think of tornadoes in the Great Plains of the United States. The central U.S. from South Dakota to northern Texas is an area that is often referred to as Tornado Alley. That region of the country experiences more tornadoes than any place on Earth. While severe weather does happen more often there, we are not immune from storms in North Carolina. In fact, the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh this week quoted a recent study that shows North Carolina leads the nation in the number of killer night time tornadoes!

There are several examples of such tragic events in our recent history. Folks that have lived around Raleigh for a while may remember November 28, 1988 when an F4 tornado touched down in north Raleigh and travelled almost to the Virgina border killing 4 people and injuring over 150. More recent examples of night time tornadoes came just last year on November 15.

Tornado damage in Kenly on November 15, 2008. National Weather Service photo.

Tornado damage near Elm City in Wilson County on November 15, 2008. National Weather Service photo.

Several tornadoes touched down in the eastern Carolinas during the very early morning hours of November 15, 2008. One of those tornadoes near Elm City in Wilson County killed one person and injured four.

With these facts, we should all ask ourselves -- are we prepared if severe weather were to strike at night? It does happen in North Carolina and our history tells us it can be deadly.

The one device that could prevent some deaths from night time tornadoes is a NOAA Weather Radio. These radios will automatically sound an alarm if a severe weather warning is issued in your area. The most recent weather radio models featuring S.A.M.E. technology allow you to program your radio to only alert you for the county where you live. A NOAA Weather Radio is just as important to have in your home as a smoke detector. Every home in North Carolina should have one! Does yours?

If you do not have a weather radio, now is a great time to purchase one. They are available at most electronic stores. You should be able to pick up one for under $50. Be sure to pick a radio with the S.A.M.E. technology and one that has backup battery power in case the electricity goes out.

If you do already have a weather radio, now would be a great time to make sure yours has fresh batteries. Just like smoke detectors, experts recommend you change the battery twice a year. Time change weekends, such as this weekend, is a great time to change your batteries!

Read more about the severe weather events I mentioned in this blog plus find out more about NOAA Weather Radio through these links --

• Raleigh tornado of November 28, 1988
• November 15, 2008 Tornado Outbreak
• NOAA Weather Radio

Recap of Early Week Snow

This week's snowfall in the Triangle ranked as the 7th highest March snowfall on record since 1944 at the Raleigh-Durham Airport.

1. March 1, 1969 -- 9.3"
2. March 2, 1980 -- 9.0"
3. March 24, 1983 -- 7.3"
4. March 9, 1960 -- 6.9"
5. March 2, 1960 -- 6.5"
6. March 26, 1971 -- 5.2"
7. March 2, 2009 -- 3.2"
8. March 25, 1974 -- 2.9"
9. March 25, 1972 -- 2.6"
10. March 6, 1962 -- 2.3"

A little late in posting this...

but check out the visible satellite from the lunch hour on Wednesday. Leftover snow is still easily spotted from New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia right down into North Carolina. As highs climb over the next few days the snow will quickly melt away.

Monday 2pm Update -- Updated NC Snowfall List

• Beech Mountain: 15.0"
• Banner Elk: 8.0"
• Roxboro: 7.0"
• High Point: 6.0"
• Henderson: 5.8"
• Greensboro: 5.7"
• Thomasville: 5.5"
• Advance: 5.2"
• Burlington: 5.0"
• Durham: 4.0"
• Kannapolis: 4.0"
• Lexington: 4.0"
• Oxford: 4.0"
• Statesville: 4.0"
• Pittsboro: 3.5"
• Youngsville: 3.5"
• Siler City: 3.4"
• Hillsborough: 3.3"
• RDU Airport: 3.2"
• Carthage: 3.0"
• Cary: 3.0"
• Concord: 3.0"
• Louisburg: 3.0"
• Raleigh (NCSU): 2.5"
• Wake Forest: 2.4"
• Knightdale: 2.1"
• Clayton: 2.0"
• Roanoke Rapids: 2.0"
• Warrenton: 2.0"
• Holly Springs: 1.5"
• Sanford: 1.5"
• Wilson: 1.5"
• Tarboro: 1.0"
• Angier: 0.6"
• Lillington: 0.5"
• Fayetteville: Trace
• Goldsboro: Trace
• Spring Lake: Trace

5:30am Update -- NC Snow Reports

Updated snow accumulations from around NC:

• Saluda: 12.3"
• Kings Mountain: 9.0"
• Roxboro: 7.0"
• Charlotte: 6.0"
• Cherryville: 6.0"
• High Point: 6.0"
• Thomasville: 5.5"
• Greensboro: 5.0"
• Roxboro: 5.0"
• Winston-Salem: 5.0"
• Burlington: 4.5"
• Oxford: 4.0"
• RDU Airport: 3.2"
• Asheboro: 3.0"
• Lexington: 3.0"
• Louisburg: 3.0"
• NE Raleigh: 3.0"
• Hillsborough: 2.5"
• Durham: 2.0"
• Robbins: 2.0"
• Warrenton: 2.0"
• Sanford: 1.5"
• Franklinton: 1.0"
• Clayton: 0.5"
• Lillington: 0.5"
• Fayetteville: Trace
• Spring Lake: Trace

2:30am Monday Update

The above picture was taken around 2am by a News 14 Carolina viewer near Moore Square and City Market in downtown Raleigh. Send your reports and pictures to weather@news14.com.

Updated accumulation reports...

• Greensboro: 2.5"
• Robbins: 2.0"
• Cary: 1.0"
• Garner: 1.0"
• RDU Airport: 1.0"
• Raleigh: 1.0"

Great Visible Sat Image...

Wanna see snow from space? Check out this visible satellite image from Sunday afternoon. If you look at Western Tennessee you're not seeing clouds, but nearly 7-10" of fresh snow. Memphis collected enough snow to shut down I-40 for a long period of time on Saturday. It will be interesting to see a visible image Monday afternoon for the Carolinas.

What's the Weather Like in Your Neighborhood?

Check out the pictures of snow in Atlanta Josh posted in the blog post below this one.... when the snow starts to fall in your neighborhood, send us your weather reports and winter weather pictures. E-mail weather@news14.com. Be sure to include your city or community when e-mailing.

Deep South Snow...

Lee posted a Tweet about snow in the ATL. Here's some proof. I collected a couple shots from I-75. The interstate is a major artery into and out of Atlanta, GA. The white stuff is on the way...

Early Sunday Morning Update

Some updated thoughts on the winter weather coming up for North Carolina....

- A cold rain is expected across the Triangle and Sandhills this morning. At times, that rain could mix with sleet especially north and west of Raleigh.

- A wintry mix will be possible this afternoon with a burst of all snow possible by late afternoon in the Triangle.

- Ground temperatures are warm, but a quick burst of moderate to heavy snowfall could still accumulate in the late afternoon and evening. Snowfall with a lighter intensity would not be able to cool the ground and may not be able to accumulate.

- All snow is expected late tonight into early Monday morning. The snow should taper off around daybreak.

- Based on the latest data, I still expect snow accumulations around 2-4" in the Raleigh area. On the north and west side of the Triangle, the Durham and Chapel Hill area may see more with accumualations around 3-6" with the higher accumuations expected the closer you get to Greensboro. An area around the Triad (Greensboro-Winston-Salem) to Charlotte could see 4-7" with a narrow band of even higher snowfall (7"+) still possible. Keep in mind if the storm track were to shift east, higher accumulations could shift to the east into the Triangle.

- Areas south and east of the Triangle may still see some accumulation into early Monday morning as well. Wilson to Goldsboro to Fayetteville could have 1-2". Southeast of Wilson, Goldsboro, and Fayetteville toward the coast may see a few snow showers or flurries but little to no accumulation is expected.

News 14 Carolina has the winter weather covered with weather updates every 10 minutes around the clock. Let us know what's happening in your part of North Carolina. Send weather conditions from your neighborhood and weather pictures to weather@news14.com. You can also stay connected with our weather team through the comment section on this blog or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Our Twitter and Facebook links can be found on the right side of the blog.