Some folks around Raleigh commented on the red sky this morning. News 14 Carolina viewer Jim Penny sent us a picture of that "red sunrise" this morning from west Raleigh. The old weather saying goes something like "red sky in the morning, take warning...." So is there warning we need to take from that red sky? There's certainly nothing to be warned about today and tomorrow and we look for clear and chilly conditions. However, by now you may have heard the buzz around town about the weekend forecast...Through the rest of the week, we'll track low pressure out of the Gulf of Mexico across Florida and just off the southeast coast. If that low continues to track up the coastline of the Carolinas, central parts of North Carolina COULD see snow. The area of interest for this scenario includes points from Raleigh to Fayetteville and to the west. On the other hand, if the low continues to track to the east-northeast, our area would mainly just see some rain showers.
Computer models still give a variety of forecasts this morning, and it's really too early to start leaning one way or the other on those scenarios. The timing on the preciptiation remains uncertain as well. Our original timeframe of interest was late Friday night into Saturday. A few models now try to start the precipitation as early as Friday afternoon.
With each model run that comes out today and tomorrow, we should gain more confidence in the forecast. We should certainly have a better idea on what may happen by tomorrow and Friday. So stay tuned to see if we just see a cold rain or something more....
In the meantime, the folks over at the National Weather Service in Raleigh always do a great job with the difficult task of winter weather forecasting in central North Carolina. Here's their hazardous weather update this morning with more on their forecast thinking....
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM MAY PASS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD NOT BE LIKELY. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD INCREASE.
EVERYONE IS ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
$$
BADGETT/VINCENT
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