Hot Summer Continues

Wednesday, July 7 brought some of the hottest temperatures so far this summer in parts of North Carolina when many cities hit highs near 100 or even higher. Here's a look back at highs for selected locations around the state:

• Goldsboro: 104
• Fayetteville: 103
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 103
• Chapel Hill: 102
• Lumberton: 102
• Raleigh-Durham: 102 (new record for the date)
• Southern Pines: 102
• Louisburg: 101
• Concord: 100
• Elizabethtown: 100
• Jacksonville: 100
• Kenansville: 100
• Charlotte: 99
• Greensboro: 99
• Mount Airy: 99
• Oxford-Henderson: 99
• Cherry Point: 98
• Gastonia: 98
• New Bern: 98
• Wilmington: 98
• Winston-Salem: 98
• Asheboro: 97
• Lexington: 97
• Asheville: 92
• Boone: 88

Hot Start to Summer

That cold and wet winter seems like a distant memory now. Summer 2010 is off to a hot start in North Carolina. In fact, June 2010 is setting up to be one of the hottest Junes on record at least for Raleigh-Durham. Records have been kept at RDU since 1944.

According to information provided by the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh, the warmest June on record was June 2008 when the average temperature was 80.7. So far, the average temperature for June 2010 is 80.4.

With afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and morning lows in the 70s in the forecast at least into early next week, it looks like June 2010 will challenge June 2008 as the hottest June on record.

Tornado Alley in the Carolinas?

When you think about tornado alley, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska probably come to mind. Based on a recent research study from the University of Akron, we may have to think again.

Image courtesy of Michael Frates, University of Akron

That research by Michael Frates, a graduate assistant, took a look at long track tornadoes (20 miles or longer) of EF3 strength or stronger.

Image courtesy of Michael Frates, University of Akron

His results show that an area classified as "Dixie Alley" including northern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama has just as many if not more strong, long track tornadoes compared to the region traditionally referred to as "Tornado Alley."

An area of eastern North Carolina classified as "Carolina Alley" follows closely behind "Tornado Alley" and "Dixie Alley." Take a look at the image below from the National Weather Service of all tornado tracks in the Carolinas since 1950.

You'll notice an area just south and east of Raleigh closely following the I-95 corridor that has more frequent long track tornadoes. In fact, there area few examples of devastating tornadoes in this area in recent memory. An outbreak of tornadoes less than two years ago in November 2008 included an EF3 tornado that caused destruction like this near Elm City, NC....

Photo courtesy of the National Weather Service - Raleigh.

Several other tornadoes were reported that same night including one in Kenly...


The infamous Carolinas Outbreak of 1984 also occurred in this same area. That was one of the most deadly tornado outbreaks in North Carolina history. Fifty seven people were killed in North and South Carolina. An estimated 800 were injured.





All of this just goes to remind us that deadly severe weather can and does happen here in North Carolina. While we enjoy nice spring weather, our weather isn't always this nice. It's best to be prepared and know what to do for the next time our weather takes a violent turn.



Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is just about a month away and most forecasts indicate this year will be more active than the last. Forecasters at North Carolina State University in Raleigh just released their forecast this week calling for an above normal season. That agrees with an earlier forecast from Colorado State University.

The NC State forecast led by tropical meteorology professor Dr. Lian Xie calls for 14 to 19 named storms to develop in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, or Caribbean with 7 to 11 of those becoming hurricanes. Forecasters have gone one step beyond just predicting the number of storms and are forecasting the chance a storm could make landfall along the coast. An 80 percent chance is given for a named storm (tropical storm or stronger) to make landfall somewhere from the east coast of Florida to North Carolina. There is a 70 percent chance that storm would be a hurricane. Along the Gulf coast, there is an 80 percent chance for a hurricane to make landfall.

Having studied tropical meteorology taught by Dr. Xie, I have great respect for his forecast. However, we must remember it is just that -- a forecast with uncertainty. It only takes one storm making landfall to cause excessive damage affecting many people. We must watch the tropics closely from June through November this and every hurricane season.

It has been some time since a major hurricane impacted the North Carolina coast. It is impossible to say whether or not that will change this year, but it is best to be ready just in case. In the coming weeks, News 14 Carolina and Carolina on Demand will air a series on how North Carolina residents can prepare for hurricane season. Then stay tuned for our tropical updates starting June 1 at :21 after the hour every hour through November.

Read more on the outlook for the 2010 hurricane season from NCSU forecasters at http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2010.html

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

YouTube Videos of Zebulon Tornado -- April 25, 2010

“Vital New Roadmap” Underscores Need to Study Climate Change, Human Health Links..from NOAA

“Vital New Roadmap” Underscores Need to Study Climate Change, Human Health Links

Asthma, Cancer, Weather Disaster-Related Illnesses Cited Among Concerns



The vulnerability of people to the health effects of climate change is the focus of a report released today by an NIH-led federal interagency group that includes NOAA. The report, “A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change,” calls for coordinating federal research to better understand climate’s impact on human health and identifying how these impacts can be most effectively addressed. The report was published by Environmental Health Perspectives and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.

The report indicates what is known and the significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of the consequences of climate change on 11 major illness categories, including cancer, cardiovascular disease and stroke, asthma and other respiratory disorders, food-borne diseases and nutrition, weather and heat-related fatalities, and water and vector-borne infectious diseases.



“To mitigate and adapt to the health effects of climate change, we must first understand them. This report is a vital new roadmap for doing that,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “There is an urgent need to get started, and I am pleased that we can bring NOAA climate science and NOAA capabilities in linking ocean and human health and a range of other monitoring and prediction tools to the table.”



Health experts from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and NOAA contributed to the new report. Research recommendations include examining how diseases in marine mammals might be linked to human health; investigating how climate change might contaminate seafood, beaches and drinking water; and understanding the impact of atmospheric changes on heat waves and air-borne diseases. There are questions about the effects of increased rainfall and extreme weather events on sewage discharges and run-off and what this will mean to human health. Integrating human, terrestrial and aquatic animal health surveillance with environmental monitoring is recommended to better understand emerging health risks like Lyme disease, West Nile virus, malaria, and toxins from marine algae.



To address disaster planning and management, the report encourages research aimed at strengthening healthcare and emergency services, especially when events such as floods, drought and wildfires can affect human health both during and after an event. The report also identifies the need for more effective early warning systems providing, for example, an alert to those with cardiovascular disease on extreme heat days or when air pollution is high. Other issues include susceptible and displaced populations; public health and health care infrastructure; essential capacities and skills, particularly for modeling and prediction; the integration of climate observation networks with health impact and surveillance tools, and communication and education.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/noaa.lubchenco.

On the Web:

Additional recommendations and the full report are available at: http://www.niehs.nih.gov/climatereport

Melting Snow...

Remember all that snow across the US this winter? Not much of it remains on the ground now especially on the east coast. This is the latest snow cover map across North America from Tuesday, April 13.

Getting ready to plant that garden? Check this first!

We have a delightful weekend coming up across North Carolina! I've heard a number of friends already say that they plan on working in the garden. Before putting out those tender plants, you might want to check this zonal map of average last freeze dates across North Carolina.



Based on statistics, there is a 10% chance that a frost will occur outside of the dates listed. Whether or not a specific plant will be damaged depends on the type of plant, the maturity of the plant, the temperature, the duration, as well as many other variables.

The forecast for Easter weekend calls for well above normal temperatures and dry weather. There is a chance of rain late next week. Your latest Weather on the Ones forecast has the details to take you through the weekend or through next week on News 14 Carolina.

Looking Back at the Cold Winter

Here are a few interesting facts from winter (December-February) provided by the National Weather Service Offices in Raleigh and Wilmington.

Raleigh-Durham

• 6th coldest winter on record for RDU. Records for RDU go back to 1944.
• Coldest winter since 1978.
• There were 9 days with snowfall. The average snowfall days for RDU during a winter is 3.

Wilmington

• 10th coldest winter on record in Wilmington. Records go back 136 years for Wilmington.
• Low temperatures in January and February averaged below 32. That is only the 5th time that has happened.
• There were 54 days between December 1 and February 28 when then temperature was 55 degrees or lower. 55 is the coldest average high temperature during winter for Wilmington.
• There were 48 days when Wilmington had a low temperature below freezing. That is the 8th greatest number of below freezing lows on record. Wilmington's first freezing temperature this winter was on December 12, which was the 8th latest date for a first freeze!
• 3.8" of snow fell in Wilmington this winter on February 12-13. That is the most snow since January 25-26 when 5.0" of snow was recorded in Wilmington.

Snow Totals from March 2-3, 2010

• Dunn: 4.5"
• Erwin: 4.0"
• Mount Olive: 4.0"
• Newton Grove: 4.0"
• Rural Hall: 4.0"
• Seagrove: 4.0"
• Apex: 3.0"
• Davidson: 3.0"
• Greensboro: 3.0"
• Holly Springs: 3.0"
• Siler City: 3.0"
• Troy: 3.0"
• Warsaw: 3.0"
• Lexington: 2.5"
• Angier: 2.0"
• Carthage: 2.0"
• Goldsboro: 2.0"
• Graham: 2.0"
• Southern Pines: 2.0"
• Stedman: 2.0"
• Wilson: 2.0"
• Winston-Salem: 2.0"
• Durham: 1.5"
• Hillsborough: 1.0"
• Raleigh: 1.0"
• RDU Airport: 0.8"
• Louisburg: 0.5"
• Oxford: 0.5"
• Trenton: 0.5"
• Charlotte: 0.4" (Airport)
• Laurinburg: Trace
• Hednerson: Trace
• Raeford: Trace
• Rockingham: Trace
• Wadesboro: Trace
• Warrenton: Trace

Quick Tuesday Afternoon Update

Computer models this afternoon indicate somewhat higher snow totals will be possible overnight. We may see accumulations closer to 2-4" on average across the Triangle to Goldsboro and Wilson with some 4-5" totals from east Raleigh to the east and northeast. These accumulations will be mainly on grassy surfaces. Some light snow and slush may build up on some roads late tonight into early Wednesday morning. For locations south of a line from Wake County to Goldsboro, look for a dusting to 2 inches.

These totals may still need to be adjusted based on radar trends into the night. You'll find the latest forecast through the night every 10 minutes on News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina

Update on Chance for Snow Tonight into Early Wednesday

Low pressure tracking off the Carolina coast is spreading rain across the Carolinas this morning. The precipitation around the Triangle, Sandhills, and coast should stay all rain through the afternoon. As temperatures drop this evening, the rain should begin to mix with and change to snow across parts of the Triangle and Sandhills. Coastal areas will remain rain through the night but may see some light snow as the precipitation tapers off early Wednesday morning.

An accumulation forecast remains difficult with this storm. Ground temperatures will remain just above freezing into the night. Because of that, light snow will not accumulate. However, moderate to heavy snow should begin to build up on grassy surfaces. This may mean some neighborhoods see no accumulation to other areas seeing an inch or two.

Here's the latest thinking on any accumulation by Wednesday morning...

Triangle: Locations around Chapel Hill to Durham to west Raleigh should see an inch or two of wet snow on grassy surfaces. Most roads will be wet, but some roads not frequently traveled may accumulate some slush. From east Raleigh to the east-northeast including northern Johnston, Franklin, Wilson, and Warren Counties. accumulations around two inches are possible but a few pockets of up to 4 inches will be possible where heavy snow falls. These areas may also see slush on roads early Wednesday.

Sandhills: Locations around the Sandhills including Fayetteville to Goldsboro can expect a trace of snow (no accumulation) up to an inch of slushy snow. Most roads will just be wet.

Coast: Locations along the immediate coast will see up to an inch or rain or slightly higher. No snow is expected along the immediate coast, but some inland areas may see light snow mix in with the rain very early Wednesday morning. Little to no accumulation is expected except perhaps a dusting in parts of Bladen and Duplin Counties. Coastal areas will also deal with strong winds tonight into Wednesday. Gale Warnings are in effect off the coast.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for updates through the day and night.

Monday Morning Update on Chance for Snow Tuesday into Wednesday

Low pressure tracking along the Gulf coast late today will track off the Carolina coast by late Tuesday. That will spread rain and snow into the state Tuesday.

For the Triangle and Sandhills, we expect the precipitation to move in Tuesday morning through midday as light rain. The rain should pick up at times through the afternoon. During the day, it will be possible for the rain to mix with snow at times, but we do not anticipate accumulation during the day. Look for the rain or rain/snow mix to change to mostly snow by late afternoon or evening. Temperatures into the night will hover just above freezing keeping accumulations mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. Snow showers may continue through daybreak Wednesday morning with the temperature briefly dropping to or just below freezing. Based on this latest thinking, we expect between a dusting to 2 inches of wet snow accumulation. A band of heavier precipitation may set up just east-northeast of Raleigh and could lead to slightly higher amounts in an area around Louisburg to Rocky Mount to Roanoke Rapids and Ahoskie. Again, the accumulation would mainly be on grassy surfaces with very little on roadways expect for some slushy build up on mainly secondary roads.

Along the coast, the precipitation should stay as mainly all rain through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning. Some inland counties may see some light snow mix in with the rain as it tapers off Wednesday morning. No accumulation is expected in those areas though.

Keep in mind this is just a first look at an accumulation forecast, and it is still subject to change depending on the exact track of the low. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for any updates to the forecast.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina

March Snows in NC

Here's a look back at recent March snows in North Carolina. Click the images for a larger version.

March 1-2, 2009:

March 16-17, 2005:

March 12-14, 1993:

March 24-25, 1983:

March 1-2, 1980:

Sunday AM Update on the Threat for Winter Weather in the Upcoming Week

Saturday AM Update on Next Week's Possible Storm

Tracking a Possible Storm for Next Week

Mid-week outlook

If you enjoyed last weekends weather, you were not alone! With highs reaching the 60's for the first time this February many folks were buzzing that the end of winter was in sight. Not so fast! An approaching storm from the south will meet up with colder air over North Carolina to bring a rain/snow mix to the Triangle and Virginia border counties for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Snow accumulations are expected to be on the light side as grassy areas could receive up to an inch during the evening and overnight Wed. An updated run of Stormcast wants to intensify this storm off the Mid-Atlantic Coast bringing snow to places like Elizabeth City tomorrow night in to Thursday.

Once this system pulls away on Thursday we're looking at a breezy and cold day as highs struggle to reach the low 40's!

February 12-13, 2010 Snowfall

Here's a look at snowfall totals from Friday night February 12 through Saturday morning February 13:

• Harker's Island: 8.8"
• Jacksonville: 8.5"
• Beaufort: 7.0"
• Hubert: 7.0"
• Morehead City: 7.0"
• Newport: 7.0"
• Wallace: 7.0"
• Burgaw: 6.0"
• Clinton: 6.0"
• Goldsboro: 6.0"
• Atlantic Beach: 5.5"
• Surf City: 5.3"
• Havelock: 5.0"
• Kenansville: 5.0"
• Mount Olive: 5.0"
• Oak Island: 5.0"
• Southport: 5.0"
• Masonboro: 4.9"
• Pinehurst: 4.1"
• Albemarle: 4.0"
• Cary: 4.0"
• Elizabethtown: 4.0"
• Fayetteville: 4.0"
• Hope Mills: 4.0"
• Wilmington: 3.8"
• Clayton: 3.5"
• Lillington: 3.5"
• Lumberton: 3.5"
• Raeford: 3.5"
• Rockingham: 3.5"
• Wilson: 3.5"
• Apex: 3.4"
• Southern Pines: 3.4"
• Fort Bragg: 3.0"
• Laurinburg: 3.0"
• Lexington: 3.0"
• Shallotte: 3.0"
• Louisburg: 2.5"
• Raleigh: 2.5"
• Durham: 2.0"
• Hillsborough: 2.0"
• Oxford: 2.0"
• Pittsboro: 2.0"
• RDU Airport: 2.0"
• Greensboro: 1.7"
• Burlington: 1.5"
• Winston-Salem: 1.0"

Chilly February!

As we entered into the month of February nearly two weeks ago we commented on many broadcasts that most of this month was shaping to up to be rather chilly. So far that has been the case for Central and Eastern NC. The warmest day we've had was a balmy 51 on the 3rd at RDU. This prolonged cold snap has been a dominate feature for not only us, but a large part of the Eastern U.S. Snow has been recorded in just about every community in North Carolina at some point this winter! Just last week the Deep South had snow in places like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. A lot of viewers have been asking if this chilly trend will continue throughout the rest of the month? While long range forecasting can be difficult, it's looking like the second half of February is going to remain below average temperature wise.

The good news is after Monday's expected rain we should see a long stretch of dry weather for the Tar Heel State. One computer model wants to bring a weak system through on or around the 21st. This same model is picking up on what appears to be a potent storm around the 26th. Even though we're counting down the days to the start of spring, it's not time to put away the coats and gloves just yet.