Saturday, August 30, 2008

Gustav a Major Hurricane; Could Briefly Reach cat. 4

The National Hurricane Center confirmed this morning that Gustav reached Category three status , and more strengthening is expected after passing over Cuba today and tonight.

From the National Hurricane Center:
"...GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...ANDTHIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLEOF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVERWESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERNGULF BY MONDAY MORNING.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSONSCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS AS GUSTAV PASSES NEAR AND OVER WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONALSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER GUSTAV REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.



THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IN TAKING GUSTAV INLAND IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS...AND IS JUST EDGED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...IN PART TO ACCOUNT FORTHE RECENT RIGHT OF TRACK MOTION. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS IN THE TRACK...GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVERLOUISIANA AND TEXAS."


And regarding Tropical Storm Hanna:


From the National Hurricane Center:
"...BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST OR ABOUT 305MILES...490 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST TOWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..."

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