Thursday, August 18, 2011

Trouble Brewing in the Tropics?

We're watching two areas in the the tropics today. The first disturbance located in the Caribbean south of Cuba is becoming better organized this morning and could become our next tropical depression or tropical storm later today or tomorrow. Most models take that system toward Central America.

The disturbance that is of more interest to our area is way out in the Atlantic - just under 900 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. While we don't expect any development of that disturbance today, conditions should become favorable for development as it moves to the west over the coming days. Some computer models, including the GFS shown below, forecast this becoming a tropical system and tracking toward the U.S. by late next week.

We should note this is just one run of one computer model, but the GFS has been fairly consistent over the last couple of days showing this storm approaching the U.S. As expected, with this more than a week away, it has not been consistent with exactly where the storm would go. A lot will likely change with its forecast over the coming days. No one should take this forecast and say a hurricane will definitely threaten the U.S. next week. It is just a note to pay attention to the tropics over the coming days.

We'll keep you posted with our tropical updates at :21 after the hour. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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