Tuesday, August 02, 2011

Tracking Emily - Tuesday Morning Update

Tropical Storm Emily formed Monday evening and, so far, has maintained its strength as a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 40mph. It will likely be tough for the storm to strengthen all that much over the next couple of days. It may encounter shear and dry air that could limit strengthening today, and then it will track over or close to the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The island of Hispaniola is a mountainous region that sometimes rips apart tropical systems. Emily will likely at least weaken as it tracks over or close to Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings Emily over the Bahamas around the end of the week where it could strengthen as it tracks close to the southeast coast of the U.S. this weekend.

It's important to note there is uncertainty with the track and intensity forecast late this week and this weekend. While most models keep the storm just off the southeast coast, a few others actually take the system into the Gulf of Mexico.

There are even a couple models that weaken Emily all together. It is much too early to make a call if Emily will threaten North Carolina. Everyone from the Florida Gulf coast to the coast of the Carolinas should watch for the latest updates on Emily. Here in North Carolina, tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour for the latest forecast.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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