A Pattern Change Ahead?

Over the last few days, it seems we've become stuck in a hot and dry weather pattern. It was nice weather for the Memorial Day weekend, but this weather hasn't been so nice for our lawns and gardens. There are signs that our dry pattern may change by late in the weekend and early next week.

One system we are watching is a flare up of thunderstorms today in the Caribbean moving toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Over the past few days, some computer models have been hinting at a disturbance developing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. With the official start of the 2007 hurricane season Friday, we'll have to watch this disturbance for signs of tropical development.

At least one computer model (NAM) today shows an area of low pressure in the Gulf Saturday --

Another computer model (GFS) for the same time Saturday takes the disturbance across Florida and into the Atlantic --

With different computer model solutions, there is still uncertainty to exactly what this system will do. If it does develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, it may not be bad news. Soaking rains from a weak tropical system would be welcome in much of the Southeast where drought conditions continue to build.

If this disturbance develops in the eastern Gulf, it should bring rain chances to the Carolinas by Sunday. Additional moisture should stick around into the first of next week. That should give us higher rain chances through at least Monday and Tuesday.

For the latest, stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina!