Monday, January 19, 2009

Snow!

Ever since last week, it looked like we were in a weather pattern that COULD produce snow across the Carolinas. The cold air certainly was here. We just need one other ingredient... moisture. Early this morning computer forecast models have come into better agreement that we may get that needed ingredient for snow. Accumulating snow is looking likely over parts of the Carolinas beginning Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

We'll watch a low pressure system that will track across the Carolinas tonight. A disturbance in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will race out of the north central US today to meet up with that low. That will cause the low to rapidly intensify tonight into tomorrow, and those are the ingredients for a significant winter storm for our area.

Snow totals will depend on just how much the low intensifies and the exact track of the low. Early forecasts this morning suggest much of the region will see between 2 to 4 inches of snow, but there will likely be a heavier band of snow that could be between 4 to 6 inches or even higher. The exact location of that heavier band will depend on the track of the low. For now, we will forecast that to set up somewhere near the I-95 corridor. However, if the low tracks further inland, that heavier snow band could be over the Triangle. If the low tracks closer to the coast or off the coast, that heavier snow band will be east of I-95.

Please keep in mind these are preliminary snow total forecasts, and likely will be adjusted through the day. If this low intensifies more than currently forecast, snow totals could be much higher. This forecast has some similirities to the record snow storm from January 2000 that dumped up to 20 inches of snow in the Triangle. That system only appeared in computer models just about 24 hours before the snow started. Early forecasts for storm were also between 2 to 4 inches but had to be adjusted much higher as it became evident that the low would become much stronger than expected. I don't point that out to say we will have another January 2000 snow, but just to say the forecast may change rapidly over the next 24 hours.

If you've followed winter weather forecasting in North Carolina, you know forecasting exact totals is very difficult. The only thing I am certain about in the forecast now is that the forecast will change some as we continue to follow the latest data. Count on News 14 Carolina for the most weather updates with Weather on the Ones. As time permits, we'll have updates on our blog, plus you can follow our new Twitter updates. Our Twitter links are available at the top right of our blog page.

7 comments:

DJShay said...

The News14.com website seems to be down. I can't get to it. I keep getting an error.

"Server Error in '/' Application.
Timeout expired. The timeout period elapsed prior to obtaining a connection from the pool. This may have occurred because all pooled connections were in use and max pool size was reached.
Description: An unhandled exception occurred during the execution of the current web request. Please review the stack trace for more information about the error and where it originated in the code.

Exception Details: System.InvalidOperationException: Timeout expired. The timeout period elapsed prior to obtaining a connection from the pool. This may have occurred because all pooled connections were in use and max pool size was reached.

Source Error:

An unhandled exception was generated during the execution of the current web request. Information regarding the origin and location of the exception can be identified using the exception stack trace below.

Stack Trace:

[InvalidOperationException: Timeout expired. The timeout period elapsed prior to obtaining a connection from the pool. This may have occurred because all pooled connections were in use and max pool size was reached.]
System.Data.ProviderBase.DbConnectionFactory.GetConnection(DbConnection owningConnection) +4861594
System.Data.ProviderBase.DbConnectionClosed.OpenConnection(DbConnection outerConnection, DbConnectionFactory connectionFactory) +117
System.Data.SqlClient.SqlConnection.Open() +122
NHibernate.Connection.DriverConnectionProvider.GetConnection() +60
NHibernate.Impl.SessionFactoryImpl.OpenConnection() +40

[ADOException: cannot open connection]
NHibernate.Impl.SessionFactoryImpl.OpenConnection() +95
NHibernate.Impl.ConnectionManager.GetConnection() +50
NHibernate.Impl.BatcherImpl.Prepare(IDbCommand cmd) +56
NHibernate.Impl.BatcherImpl.ExecuteReader(IDbCommand cmd) +27
NHibernate.Loader.Loader.GetResultSet(IDbCommand st, RowSelection selection, ISessionImplementor session) +194
NHibernate.Loader.Loader.DoQuery(ISessionImplementor session, QueryParameters queryParameters, Boolean returnProxies) +176
NHibernate.Loader.Loader.DoQueryAndInitializeNonLazyCollections(ISessionImplementor session, QueryParameters queryParameters, Boolean returnProxies) +67
NHibernate.Loader.Loader.DoList(ISessionImplementor session, QueryParameters queryParameters) +51
NHibernate.Loader.Loader.ListIgnoreQueryCache(ISessionImplementor session, QueryParameters queryParameters) +18
NHibernate.Loader.Loader.List(ISessionImplementor session, QueryParameters queryParameters, ISet querySpaces, IType[] resultTypes) +81
NHibernate.Impl.SessionImpl.Find(CriteriaImpl criteria, IList results) +330
NHibernate.Impl.SessionImpl.Find(CriteriaImpl criteria) +66
NHibernate.Impl.CriteriaImpl.List() +57
Itelligent.Common.NHRepository`1.FindAll(Order order, ICriterion[] criteria) in C:\ITelligent\Proyectos\work\Itelligent.Common\Repositories\NHRepository.cs:104
Itelligent.Common.Repository`1.FindAll(Order order, ICriterion[] criteria) in C:\ITelligent\Proyectos\work\Itelligent.Common\Repositories\Repository.cs:148
AdminNewsCms.BusinessServices.Stations.StationService.GetAll() in D:\InetPub\NewsGecko_News14Carolina_PRODUCTION\AdminNewsCms.BusinessServices\Stations\StationService.cs:23
AdminNewsCms.BusinessServices.Stations.StationService.GetByUrl(Uri SiteUri) in D:\InetPub\NewsGecko_News14Carolina_PRODUCTION\AdminNewsCms.BusinessServices\Stations\StationService.cs:38
AdminNewsCms.WebControls.NewsControls.NewsPage.OnPreInit(EventArgs e) in D:\InetPub\NewsGecko_News14Carolina_PRODUCTION\AdminNewsCms.WebControls\NewsControls\NewsPage.cs:198
AdminNewsCms.WebControls.NewsControls.NewsContentPage.OnPreInit(EventArgs e) in D:\InetPub\NewsGecko_News14Carolina_PRODUCTION\AdminNewsCms.WebControls\NewsControls\NewsContentPage.cs:9
System.Web.UI.Page.PerformPreInit() +31
System.Web.UI.Page.ProcessRequestMain(Boolean includeStagesBeforeAsyncPoint, Boolean includeStagesAfterAsyncPoint) +282

"

Lee Ringer said...

DJShay,

Thanks for stopping by the blog. Our web staff is working to correct that error ASAP.

Lee Ringer said...

The site is back up now.

Kendall said...

why does the radar show green when it is snowing?

shannon said...

snow in apex now...yay!!thanks for the wonderful coverage!!!!

Lee Ringer said...

Kendall,

Radar is able to detect precipitation that is falling, but cannot distinguish the difference between rain, sleet, or snow. Computer software then uses temperature and other weater data to shade in the colors where it may be snowing. That is not always 100% accurate, so sometimes you will see green on radar when it is snowing.

Lee Ringer said...

Shannon,

Thanks for your report and thanks for watching!