Mild This Weekend; Cold Next Weekend?

If you haven't caught our forecast yet today, the 60s will return this afternoon and tomorrow. In fact, much of our area may be within just a few degrees of 70 on Saturday! This comes just a few days after the coldest weather so far this season. Those highs in the 30s from Tuesday will seem like a distant memory this weekend.

While our temperatures should remain near to above normal most of next week, it will not remain this mild all month. It is January after all. As I briefly mentioned in yesterday's posts, there are now signs another blast of cold air will makes its way into the eastern U.S. around the middle of this month. That will likely bring below normal temperatures back to North Carolina next weekend. Based on this morning's model data, I would think we should begin to feel that cold blast around next Saturday and Sunday (January 14-15).

You can see the Climate Prediction Center has outlined much of the southeast including the Carolinas for below normal temperatures in the current 6 to 10 day outlook --

For more on the specifics in our forecast over the coming days, be sure to check in for our latest Weather on the Ones updates on News 14 Carolina.

Hope you have a great weekend!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Will It Snow This Winter?

Will it snow this winter? That is a question I have heard a lot over the last couple of months. It is also a question that cannot be answered just yet...

This time last winter we had all seen snow at least once. That included the day after Christmas snowfall when just over a foot of snow fell near Wilson. The last two winters have featured above normal snowfall for most of our area, but we are not able to use that to make any forecasts for the current winter.

So far, we have mostly been in a mild weather pattern this winter and have yet to see any measurable snow. In a mild winter, we can still have cold snaps just like earlier this week. To produce snow, that cold air just has to phase up with a moisture source. That did not happen this week, but that does not mean it will not happen later. This winter season is young after all. There are a few examples of big snows in North Carolina as late as March.

It is pretty much impossible to forecast snowfall more than a few days ahead in our area. I can say with some certainty that there is no snow expected over the next week. Our temperatures will be climbing back to above normal levels for this time of year over the next few days. There are some early signs that we could be in for another cold blast around the middle of this month. It is just much too early to speculate whether or not that will phase up with any moisture to produce snow.

Again this winter season is still young, so stay tuned!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Arctic Blast Will Be Short Lived

The last two winters were cold ones for the Carolinas. If you recall, when we had a blast of Arctic air the last couple of winters, the cold air stuck around for a while. That is a different story for our current cold snap.

Just take a look at the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center...

Above normal temperatures are forecast to return to much of the country in that outlook. The warm up here in the Carolinas should be a fairly big warm up by the weekend. We'll see the coldest temperatures of our current Arctic blast Wednesday morning when lows may drop to the upper teens in some areas. Highs Wednesday will climb to the 40s, but those highs should return to near 60 by Friday and the low to mid 60s Saturday.

In addition to the milder weather, dry weather is on our forecast the next several days. A few rain showers will be possible by late Saturday night and Sunday. The forecast does become uncertain into next week as models are not in agreement on rain chances for the first few days of the week. Stay tuned for updates in our Weather on the Ones forecast.

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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USAID FRONTLINES: From Famine to Feast in Brazil

USAID FRONTLINES: From Famine to Feast in Brazil

I thought in this time of gratitude that you would enjoy reading a story of a nation's turnaround to abundance from famine.....
Have a safe and bountiful holiday .
Pati Darak

Hurricane Irene - Friday PM Update

What to expect Friday night - Saturday morning:

Crystal Coast (Morehead City-Atlantic Beach-Emerald Isle)

• Hurricane force winds possible after midnight and into Saturday morning



• 6-10" of rain possible with localized higher amounts



• Storm surge up to 10 feet possible resulting in a worst case of 4-6feet inudation about sea level in the surge zone

Inland from the Crystal Coast (New Bern - Havelock - Newport)

• Hurricane force wind gusts possible after midnight and into Saturday morning



• 6-8" of rain possible leading to some flooding

Onslow County (Jacksonville)

• Hurricane force wind gusts



• 4-6 foot storm surge along the coast



• 6-8" of rain possible

Cape Fear region and coast (Wilmington - Wrightsville Beach - Brunswick Co.)

• Tropical storm force winds will continue into the early morning with a hurricane force gust not out of the question along the coastal areas



• 4-6 foot storm surge along the coast



• 5-8" of rain possible

I-95 corridor (Johnston County - Wilson - Goldsboro)

• Wind gusts up to 60mph possible



• 3-6" of rain with localized higher amounts possible

Triangle and Sandhills (Raleigh -Durham - Chapel Hill - Fayetteville)

• Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph possible



• 1-2" of rain with some higher amounts in the eastern parts of this area and lower amounts to the west

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates through the night and day

Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hurricane Irene - Wednesday Update

Hurricane Irene strengthened into a category 3 hurricane Wednesday morning and appears to be tracking toward the U.S. East Coast. The storm should take a more northwest and eventually more northerly turn steering the storm just east of Florida and toward North Carolina's Outer Banks. The latest forecast track has shifted to the east compared to earlier in the week.

Here's a look at some of the latest computer model forecasts from Wednesday --
There are now several models showing Irene's center passing just east of the Outer Banks. Keep in mind Irene is a large storm and even if the storm's center passes just east of the Outer Banks much of coastal North Carolina will still be impacted by the storm. Tropical storm force winds (40mph+) extend up to 200 miles from the storm's center.

A track directly over the Outer Banks as a strong category 2 or category 3 storm would not only bring damaging winds and flooding rains to that area, but it would create overwash from the ocean and sounds. A track just to the east may not be quite as devastating but would still produce hurricane force winds (75mph+) along the Outer Banks along with heavy rain and some overwash. Gusts up to 100mph cannot be ruled out especially near Hatteras.

Based on the latest forecast track, here's what we expect for other areas in North Carolina:

Crystal Coast (Atlantic Beach, Emerald Isle, Morehead City)

• Outer rain bands from Irene arrive Friday. Rain, which could be heavy at times, will continue Friday night and into Saturday.


• Tropical storm force winds are possible Friday night and Saturday. Wind gusts up to 60 to 65mph possible. Could see a higher gust at Cape Lookout.

Wilmington, Jacksonville, and the Cape Fear Coast (Topsail Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Carolina Beach, Oak Island, Holden Beach, Ocean Isle)

• Outer rain bands from Irene arrive Friday. Rain will continue Friday night into Saturday. Heavy downpours are possible at times.


• Tropical storm force winds are possible Friday night and Saturday. Gusts up to 50mph possible.
  

Wilson and Goldsboro

• Scattered showers and a few storms are possible Friday afternoon and Saturday.


• Sustained winds 10-25mph expected with on occasional gust up to 30 or 35mph possible Saturday.

Triangle and Sandhills (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill and Fayetteville)

• Minimal impacts from Irene


• Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon with some rain possible Saturday. However, some locations may see very little if any rain.


• Sustained winds: 10-20mph with an occasional higher gust.
  
  
  

Irene will quickly move away from the North Carolina coast late Saturday night and early Sunday. The storm will quickly accelerate up the east coast and could track over or near Long Island, New York as a hurricane Sunday.

All of the expected mentioned in this post could change if there is a change in the forecast track. A jog just a little to the west or to the east could change the expected impact in your area. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for the latest information.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

Hurricane Irene -- Monday AM Update

Hurricane Irene is strengthening this morning as it pulls away from Puerto Rico. It appears the storm will brush past the Dominican Republic and Haiti over the next day. As the center of the storm tracks just to the north of Hispaniola, it will not likely be impacted by the mountainous terrain of that island. Often when storms track directly over Hispaniola, they weaken. This is not likely to happen with Irene. With the storm staying just north of the island, it is expected to maintain its strength or continue to strengthen.

As the storm tracks over the Bahamas and just east of Florida, conditions may be favorable for rapid strengthening from mid to late week. This morning's forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Irene as a strong category 2 storm by the end of the week. That is a conservative forecast, and Irene could certainly be stronger. Coastal residents should always prepare for a storm that is at least one category stronger than forecast.

It is still much too early to make a call on an exact location for landfall for the storm in the southeastern US. A look at the computer models posted below shows uncertainty from Florida to here in North Carolina.

It does appear the storm could make landfall somewhere from Florida to the Outer Banks. Even if Irene makes landfall around Georgia or southern South Carolina, the remnants of the storm could still track over North Carolina this weekend.

A lot could and likely will change with Irene's forecast over the coming days. There is still plenty of time to monitor the latest forecasts. Everyone in the Carolinas should have their preparedness plan and be ready to act later this week if necessary.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and news14.com for updates. You can tune in for our tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour.


Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRinger14

Trouble Brewing in the Tropics?

We're watching two areas in the the tropics today. The first disturbance located in the Caribbean south of Cuba is becoming better organized this morning and could become our next tropical depression or tropical storm later today or tomorrow. Most models take that system toward Central America.

The disturbance that is of more interest to our area is way out in the Atlantic - just under 900 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. While we don't expect any development of that disturbance today, conditions should become favorable for development as it moves to the west over the coming days. Some computer models, including the GFS shown below, forecast this becoming a tropical system and tracking toward the U.S. by late next week.

We should note this is just one run of one computer model, but the GFS has been fairly consistent over the last couple of days showing this storm approaching the U.S. As expected, with this more than a week away, it has not been consistent with exactly where the storm would go. A lot will likely change with its forecast over the coming days. No one should take this forecast and say a hurricane will definitely threaten the U.S. next week. It is just a note to pay attention to the tropics over the coming days.

We'll keep you posted with our tropical updates at :21 after the hour. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

A Break from the Heat?

It has been a very hot summer in the Carolinas including several days at or above 100. There are now signs we'll get a break from the extreme heat into much of next week. The extended outlook for the next 6 to 10 days from the Climate Prediction Center has near to below normal temperatures for most of the east coast including North Carolina.

We average highs in the upper 80s to near 90 through mid-August. At an early glance, I would anticipate highs in the mid and upper 80s for much of next week with morning lows in the 60s. That sure beats the upper 90s to near 100! Of course, errors in forecasting grow with time, so this long range forecast is not a guarantee. It is nice to say for now that we may get through next week with highs below 90!

The news isn't so good for the central U.S. where the summer has been even hotter than here. The above normal temperatures will likely continue there next week. Much of Texas including Dallas should continue their streak of 100+ degree days.


Lee Ringer

News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Will Emily Redevelop?

Tropical Storm Emily fell apart Thursday afternoon as it was tracking over Haiti. What remains of the system is just a disorganized area of low pressure that is tracking toward the Bahamas. While we don't expect the storm to redevelop today, some redevelopment is possible Saturday. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 60% chance it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm again.

Even if Emily redevelops, the storm is expected to stay offshore...
The only impacts in North Carolina would be the danger of rip currents at our beaches. Scattered afternoon storms are still possible this weekend, but those are unrelated to what is now the remnants of Emily.

For the latest on the tropics, tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour on News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Tropical Storm Emily - Thursday AM Update

Not a lot has changed with the thinking on the forecast for Tropical Storm Emily. As of this morning, the storm was just on the south side of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Emily has been nearly stationary for a while but is expected to move to the west-northwest to the northwest later today. That will take the storm across parts of Haiti and eastern Cuba tonight through early tomorrow. It could weaken some as it interacts with land and some wind shear.

Emily should track over the Bahamas into the weekend where conditions will be favorable for strengthening. The storm is then expected to turn to the north and eventually to the northeast Sunday.

A few models still show the storm tracking toward the Gulf of Mexico, but that appears to be an unlikely scenario at this time. Emily could become a category 1 hurricane as it tracks just of the Carolina coast. On this track, it will stay far enough offshore that even locations along the immediate coast will not see rain from the storm. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible this weekend, but are not related to Emily. The only impact from the storm in North Carolina may be from rough surf and dangerous rip currents.

We still must watch Emily carefully, if the storm were to track just a little closer to the coast, the forecast could still change significantly. Stay tuned to our tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour on News 14 Carolina for the latest.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Tropical Storm Emily - Wednesday AM Update

There have not been any big changes in Tropical Storm Emily since Tuesday evening. As of the 8am update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm still has sustained winds around 50mph and is expected to pass near or over the Dominican Republic and Haiti late today and tonight. Hispaniola is a mountainous island, which should weaken the storm. There are some cases where a storm falls apart all together, but most models do not show that happening at this time.

It will be important to monitor how well Emily stays together after passing over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Once it emerges over the Bahamas late Thursday and Friday, conditions will be favorable for strengthening. In fact, several models now show Emily becoming a hurricane off the southeast coast this weekend. The next tricky part of the forecast becomes the track Emily takes and how close it comes to the coast.
Most models now turn Emily to the northeast Sunday taking it off the Carolina coast, but not all of the models agree just how far offshore the storm will track. At this time, I do not anticipate any impacts from Emily in central North Carolina including the Triangle and Sandhills. Impacts along the coast will all depend on the exact track. A track close to the coast would bring rain and wind. If the storm stays farther offshore, the only impacts would be rough surf and rip currents. As with any tropical system, the track and intensity forecast could change over the coming days changing the forecast impacts on our area. If you have beach plans this weekend, I would not cancel them yet, just stay alert to the latest forecast.

Scattered afternoon storms unrelated to Emily are still possible this weekend.

Be sure to stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecast. We'll have tropical updates at :21 and :51 after the hour through the week.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

Tracking Emily - Tuesday Morning Update

Tropical Storm Emily formed Monday evening and, so far, has maintained its strength as a minimal tropical storm with sustained winds of 40mph. It will likely be tough for the storm to strengthen all that much over the next couple of days. It may encounter shear and dry air that could limit strengthening today, and then it will track over or close to the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The island of Hispaniola is a mountainous region that sometimes rips apart tropical systems. Emily will likely at least weaken as it tracks over or close to Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings Emily over the Bahamas around the end of the week where it could strengthen as it tracks close to the southeast coast of the U.S. this weekend.

It's important to note there is uncertainty with the track and intensity forecast late this week and this weekend. While most models keep the storm just off the southeast coast, a few others actually take the system into the Gulf of Mexico.

There are even a couple models that weaken Emily all together. It is much too early to make a call if Emily will threaten North Carolina. Everyone from the Florida Gulf coast to the coast of the Carolinas should watch for the latest updates on Emily. Here in North Carolina, tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour for the latest forecast.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14

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Tracking Bret

Tropical Storm Bret developed this weekend near the Bahamas, but it is not expected to be a threat to the east coast. The storm will track off the Carolina coast through Wednesday when it should take a more easterly turn. This will take the storm into the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic where Bret will weaken late in the week.

At this point, coastal North Carolina could use the soaking rains from a weak tropical system to help alleviate extreme drought conditions. Unfortunately, Bret will stay far enough offshore that no rain is expected from the storm along the coast. The storm will kick up rough surf and create dangerous rip currents for beach goers through midweek.

For the latest forecast on Bret and more on the tropics, be sure to tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Enjoy the Weekend Weather; Extreme Heat Returns Next Week

Today is off to the great start with the coolest morning in a month! The low dropped to 60 at the Raleigh -Durham Airport this morning - just 2 degrees away from the record low for the date. Wilmington tied the record low with 64. This comes just days after record highs.

Unfortunately, the cooler summer weather won't stick around for too long. A heat wave will be building across the central U.S. from this weekend through early next week and will then build east around mid to late next week.

Some computer model forecasts show Wednesday through Friday next week could be just as hot or even hotter that the middle of this week when Raleigh hit 100 on Tuesday and Wilmington hit 102 on Wednesday. The heat index peaked between 105 and 109 both days in much of our area. The long range heat index forecast for next Thursday (July 21) shows the heat index could get as high as 110 to 115!

Keep in mind this is still several days away, but there are clear indications that the oppressive heat and humidity will return next week. Exactly how hot is still somewhat uncertain at this point. We'll keep you posted through the weekend and next week with our latest Weather on the Ones forecasts. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina
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Your Guide to Stormfest 2011 - Raleigh

If you're a weather enthusiast, don't miss Stormfest 2011 Saturday, June 18 from 9am until 5pm at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences in Raleigh. This free event is a great opportunity for adults and children to learn more about the hurricane season and the recent severe weather in North Carolina. News 14 Carolina's Weather on the Ones team will be there along with other groups including the National Weather Service, Red Cross, SKYWARN, American Radio Emergency Services, State Medical Assistance Team, Urban Search and Rescue, State Veterinary Emergency Response, Wake County Emergency Management, Highway Patrol, National Guard, NC Baptist Men, WakeMed, Rex Healthcare, and local fire departments.

Stop by the News 14 Carolina/Weather on the Ones booth to pick up our severe weather safety guide plus other freebies we have to give away!

You may also be interested in talks that will be given through the day at Stormfest. Here's a schedule of events --

9:45am - Story time for kids - Windows on the World room


10:30am - Ask the Experts panel discussion with Lee Ringer and other local meteorologists - main auditorium

11:00am - What You Need to Know about Family Prepareness with the Red Cross - Windows on the World room

11:30am - Weather Whys for Kids with Pati Darak - Blue classroom (3rd floor)

12noon - Storm Chasing - Vortex II project with NC State University - Windows on the World room

12:30pm - North Carolina hurricane history with author Jay Barnes - main auditorium

1:15pm - Weather Whys for Kids with Joshua McKinney - Blue classroom (3rd floor)

2:30pm - Ask the Experts panel discussion with Gary Stephenson and other local meteorologists - main auditorium

3:30pm - What You Need to Know about Family Preparedness with the Red Cross - Windows on the World room

Stormfest 2011 - Wilmington

We're hoping to see you this Saturday at Wilmington's Stormfest 2011! Stormfest will be held from 10am until 4pm at the Cape Fear Museum. Admission to the museum is free for this special event! Stop by anytime from 10am until 4pm to learn more about our recent active severe weather season and the upcoming hurricane season. Chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson and meteorologist Lee Ringer will be on hand. Stop by our booth to pick up our new weather safety guide along with other freebies from News 14 Carolina and Time Warner Cable.

Other Stormfest participants include the Wilmington National Weather Service Office, the American Red Cross, New Hanover County Emergency Management, Pender County Emergency Management, the New Hanover County Library, the US Coast Guard, and other local TV stations.

Here are just some of the special events taking place during Stormfest:

10:30am to Noon - SkyWarn Storm Spotter Training with Josh Weiss of the Wilmington National Weather Service

Noon to 1:00pm - Ask the Expert: Meteorologists - Ask your weather questions to a panel of local TV meteorologists including News 14 Carolina's chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson

1pm to 2pm - Ask the Expert: Emergency Managers

2pm to 3pm - Hurricane Hazel: What if it Happened Today?

Door prizes will be given away through the day!

Parking for Stormfest is available at the Cape Fear Musuem. Additional parking is available at Jengo's Playhouse on the corner of Princess and 9th Street, at Norris, Kuske, and Tunstall Consulting Engineering on 9th Street, and at W.K. Dickson.

Raleigh's Stormfest will be head Saturday, June 18 at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences. More details to come...

Thursday's Storm Threat

Today we're watching a potent spring storm system marching across Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky. A severe weather outbreak is expected through the day in that part of the country with tornadoes likely. That same storm system will move across the Carolinas late Wednesday night through Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central and eastern North Carolina under a slight risk for severe weather Thursday -
A line of storms is expected to move through the Triad and Charlotte areas early Thursday morning possibly before daybreak. The storms will approach the Triangle and Sandhills from the morning commute through midday and then move across eastern North Carolina from late morning through afternoon. The greatest threat from any strong storms will come from damaging straight line winds, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina. We'll keep you updated with the latest forecast.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
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Strong Storms Possible Late Wednesday Night into Thursday

A potent storm system is moving across the southeastern US today and could bring strong storms to the Carolinas late tonight and tomorrow. Early this morning severe storms have been marching across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The rain and storms will be slow to move into our part of North Carolina leaving most of the daytime hours Wednesday with not much more than a few sprinkles or light showers.

Widespread rain will likely move into central and eastern North Carolina tonight. A few strong storms will be possible at that time. The threat for severe weather should mainly start around 10pm for the Triangle and Sandhills and continue through the overnight hours. The threat should come more toward early morning for coastal North Carolina but could start before daybreak. There is a slight chance that a few overnight storms may produce an isolated tornado. This is especially dangerous because of the overnight timing. Many people will be asleep and will not be aware of any warnings. Be sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio in standby mode tonight to alert you to any warnings in your area. Over 80% of tornado deaths in North Carolina occur at night.

Showers and storms will continue off and on through the day Thursday. The severe threat will come more from damaging wind gusts from any strong storms during the daytime. The rain and storms should come to an end by late afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts should range between 1 and 2 inches across much of our area.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates. We'll be here around the clock for the latest information through the day and night.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14

More Rain Needed

Monday evening's showers and thunderstorms some much needed rain to the region, but more is needed.


Here's a look rainfall from Monday -

• Raleigh (NCSU): 1.10"
• Fayetteville: 0.80"
• Durham: 0.79"
• Wilmington: 0.77"
• Clayton: 0.75"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.74"
• Chapel Hill: 0.71"
• Cherry Point: 0.65"
• Jacksonville: 0.65"
• Raleigh-Durham Airport: 0.62"
• Goldsboro: 0.63"
• Whiteville: 0.63"
• Beaufort: 0.60"
• Oak Island: 0.54"
• Kure Beach: 0.47"

Even with Monday's rain, the rainfall deficit stands at 3.84" since January 1 and 4.50" since December 1 at the Raleigh-Durham Airport. As noted in the above drought map, coastal North Carolina is not currently experiencing drought conditions like central parts of the state. The rainfall deficit for Wilmington since January 1 now stands at just 1.02"

The recent dry conditions are concerning because the time period of October through April is critical to recharge water levels in lakes, rivers, and ground water. Ground water levels have been especially low in parts of central North Carolina.

Dry weather is in the forecast through the rest of the week. However, it appears rain will return Sunday. Amounts are still uncertain at this time, and is often the case heading into the spring months, we'll have to watch for strong storms. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecasts.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
www.facebook.com/LeeRingerNews14
www.twitter.com/LeeRingerNews14