Tracking Bret

Tropical Storm Bret developed this weekend near the Bahamas, but it is not expected to be a threat to the east coast. The storm will track off the Carolina coast through Wednesday when it should take a more easterly turn. This will take the storm into the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic where Bret will weaken late in the week.

At this point, coastal North Carolina could use the soaking rains from a weak tropical system to help alleviate extreme drought conditions. Unfortunately, Bret will stay far enough offshore that no rain is expected from the storm along the coast. The storm will kick up rough surf and create dangerous rip currents for beach goers through midweek.

For the latest forecast on Bret and more on the tropics, be sure to tune in for our tropical updates at :21 after the hour.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Enjoy the Weekend Weather; Extreme Heat Returns Next Week

Today is off to the great start with the coolest morning in a month! The low dropped to 60 at the Raleigh -Durham Airport this morning - just 2 degrees away from the record low for the date. Wilmington tied the record low with 64. This comes just days after record highs.

Unfortunately, the cooler summer weather won't stick around for too long. A heat wave will be building across the central U.S. from this weekend through early next week and will then build east around mid to late next week.

Some computer model forecasts show Wednesday through Friday next week could be just as hot or even hotter that the middle of this week when Raleigh hit 100 on Tuesday and Wilmington hit 102 on Wednesday. The heat index peaked between 105 and 109 both days in much of our area. The long range heat index forecast for next Thursday (July 21) shows the heat index could get as high as 110 to 115!

Keep in mind this is still several days away, but there are clear indications that the oppressive heat and humidity will return next week. Exactly how hot is still somewhat uncertain at this point. We'll keep you posted through the weekend and next week with our latest Weather on the Ones forecasts. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina
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Your Guide to Stormfest 2011 - Raleigh

If you're a weather enthusiast, don't miss Stormfest 2011 Saturday, June 18 from 9am until 5pm at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences in Raleigh. This free event is a great opportunity for adults and children to learn more about the hurricane season and the recent severe weather in North Carolina. News 14 Carolina's Weather on the Ones team will be there along with other groups including the National Weather Service, Red Cross, SKYWARN, American Radio Emergency Services, State Medical Assistance Team, Urban Search and Rescue, State Veterinary Emergency Response, Wake County Emergency Management, Highway Patrol, National Guard, NC Baptist Men, WakeMed, Rex Healthcare, and local fire departments.

Stop by the News 14 Carolina/Weather on the Ones booth to pick up our severe weather safety guide plus other freebies we have to give away!

You may also be interested in talks that will be given through the day at Stormfest. Here's a schedule of events --

9:45am - Story time for kids - Windows on the World room


10:30am - Ask the Experts panel discussion with Lee Ringer and other local meteorologists - main auditorium

11:00am - What You Need to Know about Family Prepareness with the Red Cross - Windows on the World room

11:30am - Weather Whys for Kids with Pati Darak - Blue classroom (3rd floor)

12noon - Storm Chasing - Vortex II project with NC State University - Windows on the World room

12:30pm - North Carolina hurricane history with author Jay Barnes - main auditorium

1:15pm - Weather Whys for Kids with Joshua McKinney - Blue classroom (3rd floor)

2:30pm - Ask the Experts panel discussion with Gary Stephenson and other local meteorologists - main auditorium

3:30pm - What You Need to Know about Family Preparedness with the Red Cross - Windows on the World room

Stormfest 2011 - Wilmington

We're hoping to see you this Saturday at Wilmington's Stormfest 2011! Stormfest will be held from 10am until 4pm at the Cape Fear Museum. Admission to the museum is free for this special event! Stop by anytime from 10am until 4pm to learn more about our recent active severe weather season and the upcoming hurricane season. Chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson and meteorologist Lee Ringer will be on hand. Stop by our booth to pick up our new weather safety guide along with other freebies from News 14 Carolina and Time Warner Cable.

Other Stormfest participants include the Wilmington National Weather Service Office, the American Red Cross, New Hanover County Emergency Management, Pender County Emergency Management, the New Hanover County Library, the US Coast Guard, and other local TV stations.

Here are just some of the special events taking place during Stormfest:

10:30am to Noon - SkyWarn Storm Spotter Training with Josh Weiss of the Wilmington National Weather Service

Noon to 1:00pm - Ask the Expert: Meteorologists - Ask your weather questions to a panel of local TV meteorologists including News 14 Carolina's chief meteorologist Gary Stephenson

1pm to 2pm - Ask the Expert: Emergency Managers

2pm to 3pm - Hurricane Hazel: What if it Happened Today?

Door prizes will be given away through the day!

Parking for Stormfest is available at the Cape Fear Musuem. Additional parking is available at Jengo's Playhouse on the corner of Princess and 9th Street, at Norris, Kuske, and Tunstall Consulting Engineering on 9th Street, and at W.K. Dickson.

Raleigh's Stormfest will be head Saturday, June 18 at the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences. More details to come...

Thursday's Storm Threat

Today we're watching a potent spring storm system marching across Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky. A severe weather outbreak is expected through the day in that part of the country with tornadoes likely. That same storm system will move across the Carolinas late Wednesday night through Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central and eastern North Carolina under a slight risk for severe weather Thursday -
A line of storms is expected to move through the Triad and Charlotte areas early Thursday morning possibly before daybreak. The storms will approach the Triangle and Sandhills from the morning commute through midday and then move across eastern North Carolina from late morning through afternoon. The greatest threat from any strong storms will come from damaging straight line winds, but a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina. We'll keep you updated with the latest forecast.

Lee Ringer
Meteorologist
News 14 Carolina
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Strong Storms Possible Late Wednesday Night into Thursday

A potent storm system is moving across the southeastern US today and could bring strong storms to the Carolinas late tonight and tomorrow. Early this morning severe storms have been marching across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The rain and storms will be slow to move into our part of North Carolina leaving most of the daytime hours Wednesday with not much more than a few sprinkles or light showers.

Widespread rain will likely move into central and eastern North Carolina tonight. A few strong storms will be possible at that time. The threat for severe weather should mainly start around 10pm for the Triangle and Sandhills and continue through the overnight hours. The threat should come more toward early morning for coastal North Carolina but could start before daybreak. There is a slight chance that a few overnight storms may produce an isolated tornado. This is especially dangerous because of the overnight timing. Many people will be asleep and will not be aware of any warnings. Be sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio in standby mode tonight to alert you to any warnings in your area. Over 80% of tornado deaths in North Carolina occur at night.

Showers and storms will continue off and on through the day Thursday. The severe threat will come more from damaging wind gusts from any strong storms during the daytime. The rain and storms should come to an end by late afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts should range between 1 and 2 inches across much of our area.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates. We'll be here around the clock for the latest information through the day and night.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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More Rain Needed

Monday evening's showers and thunderstorms some much needed rain to the region, but more is needed.


Here's a look rainfall from Monday -

• Raleigh (NCSU): 1.10"
• Fayetteville: 0.80"
• Durham: 0.79"
• Wilmington: 0.77"
• Clayton: 0.75"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.74"
• Chapel Hill: 0.71"
• Cherry Point: 0.65"
• Jacksonville: 0.65"
• Raleigh-Durham Airport: 0.62"
• Goldsboro: 0.63"
• Whiteville: 0.63"
• Beaufort: 0.60"
• Oak Island: 0.54"
• Kure Beach: 0.47"

Even with Monday's rain, the rainfall deficit stands at 3.84" since January 1 and 4.50" since December 1 at the Raleigh-Durham Airport. As noted in the above drought map, coastal North Carolina is not currently experiencing drought conditions like central parts of the state. The rainfall deficit for Wilmington since January 1 now stands at just 1.02"

The recent dry conditions are concerning because the time period of October through April is critical to recharge water levels in lakes, rivers, and ground water. Ground water levels have been especially low in parts of central North Carolina.

Dry weather is in the forecast through the rest of the week. However, it appears rain will return Sunday. Amounts are still uncertain at this time, and is often the case heading into the spring months, we'll have to watch for strong storms. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecasts.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Chance for Storms Monday Evening

Today is starting unusually warm for the final day of February. Morning temperatures in the 60s should return to near 80 in many spots by afternoon. RDU should break its record high of 80 for the date. Wilmington should fall just shy of its record of 85 this afternoon. This warm air is building in ahead of an approaching storm system that has already produced severe storms early this morning in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Some of these storms could move our way through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Before the storms arrive, look for windy weather through the afternoon. Winds will be sustained from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph but could gust up to 40mph at times. A Wind Advisory is in effect through the afternoon for the Triangle and Sandhills.

Look for showers and strong storms to move across the mountains this afternoon. It appears the storms may lose some of their intensity east of the mountains, but a few strong storms are still possible here by evening. The greatest threat from any strong storms will come from damaging winds. The storms should move east of the Triangle and Sandhills by around midnight and will be moving off the coast by around 2-3am.

This system will certainly not provide a drought busting soaking rain that is needed in many parts of our region. Rainfall totals should range from between 0.1" and 0.3". Slightly higher totals are possible in stronger storms.

Cooler and dry weather will move in for tomorrow. After tonight, our next chance for rain isn't expected until the weekend.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Are We Done with Winter Weather?

After what has been an active and cold winter, a prolonged warm up is ahead for next week! Highs will likely reach the 60s for much of the week with 70s possible by late week. There are signs that the warm weather will stick around for much of the rest of February. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center both show warmer than warmer temperatures for the Carolinas --





Even though an early taste of spring is on the way, we can't say that we are totally done with the bitter cold of winter. After all, cold weather is not unheard of in North Carolina during March. We also can't say we are done with snow for the season. There are several examples of snow across the state during the month of March. In fact, it has snowed across much of North Carolina during the first two days of March the last two years:

Even larger snows have occurred later in March including an 8" snowfall just east of Raleigh March 24-25, 1983.

One of the largest snowfalls on record for northeastern North Carolina occurred March 1-2, 1981. That storm produced over 2 feet of snow in the northeast corner of the state, nearly a foot in parts of the Triangle, and over a foot just inland from the Crystal Coast.

The forecast for March 2011 is uncertain at this time. We'll wait and see if the cold returns. In the meantime, enjoy the spring-like temperatures over the next week or two!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Snow Chances for Early Thursday Morning

Light snow will spread into central North Carolina late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. The precipitation may start during that time as light rain closer to the coast. Much of eastern North Carolina will transition to snow through the early morning hours.

Some accumulation is possible with the best chance for snow accumulations east and southeast of Raleigh. Across the Triangle, look for a trace (not even a dusting) to 1". Near I-95 from Fayetteville to Wilson and Goldsboro, 1-3" of snow is possible, but the higher end of that range may come just east of those areas. The highest snow totals may come from near Jacksonville Havelock, and Morehead City to Greenville and Elizabeth City where 2-5" is possible. Along the southeast coast near Wilmington, temperatures may hover just above freezing, so little to no accumulation is expected especially along the immediate southeast coast.

Any snow will end from the west to the east through the morning. The snow may taper off as early as around daybreak in the Triangle to late morning and midday along the coast. Skies will clear in the Triangle and Sandhills by afternoon with some limited sun by afternoon at the coast. Temperatures should warm to at least the low 40s in the afternoon.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Light Snow Possible Thursday Morning

Low pressure off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning may produce light snow in parts of our area. Precipitation totals look light at this time with the best chance of any accumulation coming near I-95 and locations to the east to the coast. This area including Fayetteville, Wilson, Goldsboro, Morehead City, and Wilmington could see anywhere from just a dusting to up to 2 inches in some spots. Closer to the Triangle any snowfall should be light enough to where little to no accumulation is expected, although just a dusting cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures early Thursday morning will drop to just below freezing around the Triangle and Sandhills to near freezing along the coast but should warm to at least the low 40s Thursday afternoon. Any snow should end by mid-morning across eastern North Carolina.

A change in the expected track and strength in low pressure off our coast could change our current forecast. Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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What We are Watching This Week

This week should be an interesting week of weather in North Carolina. It starts with low pressure tracking from near the Gulf coast this morning to off the Carolina coast later today and tonight. That will bring rain to the coast by this afternoon. The rain should spread inland through late afternoon and evening. Coastal areas should see about 1" of rain with lower amounts inland. The Triangle and Sandhills may see less than 0.25" with the possibility that areas in the northwest Triangle may not see much in the way of measurable rain. Clearing is expected by early Tuesday morning.

Somewhat cooler weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll watch another area of low pressure develop near the Gulf coast Wednesday and track off the Carolina coast by Thursday. Computer models have shown a lot of variability in the track and strength of this low in their forecasts since late last week. Some snow is possible in parts of the state late Wednesday night into Thursday, but amounts and locations of snowfall will all be determined by the track of the low. Models have been trending toward lighter amounts of precipitation. It is really too early to make any definite calls on the Thursday forecast. We'll have to continue to watch model trends and should have a better handle on Thursday's forecast by tomorrow and Wednesday.

For those of you tired of the cold winter weather, a warm up is on the way starting this weekend. Friday looks chilly, but temperatures should steadily warm through the weekend. Much of next week could feature temperatures above normal for a change.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Needed Rain

The new drought monitor released Thursday upgraded parts of central North Carolina to a severe drought. Fortunately, much needed rainfall will fall through today, tonight, and into early Saturday. Coastal North Carolina is the only part of the state that is not considered to be at least "abnormally dry." The coast will see the most rain with this storm system with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible. Central North Carolina including the Triangle and Sandhills should see between 0.5" and 1" with localized amounts over an inch around Fayetteville and east of the Triangle.

Today's rain certainly is a cold rain with temperatures holding in the 30s through the day around the Triangle and highs only in the mid 40s along the coast. Milder weather is ahead for the weekend as the rain ends. Highs should return to the 50s for Saturday and Sunday.

More rain chances are coming up next week. A few light showers are possible late Monday or early Tuesday, but the better rain chances look to come late Wednesday into Thursday. Computer models are showing a lot of uncertainty for the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday. It appears low pressure will track from near the Gulf coast to the Carolinas. At this point, it looks like the precipitation would be mainly rain for the Triangle and the Sandhills to the coast, but we'll have to watch the track of that system closely over the coming days.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Should We Trust the Groundhog's Forecast?

Happy Groundhog Day! It's the one day of year that many people listen to the weather forecast of a rodent. There are many different groundhogs making their predictions across the country today, but the best known groundhog is Punxsutawney Phil of Pennsylvania. Phil made his prediction around sunrise this morning when he did not see his shadow. According to folklore, that means an early spring. Punxsutawney Phil does not have a very good track record though with an accuracy rate of only 39%.

North Carolina's own groundhog, Sir Walter Wally has a better track record than Phil. He will make his forecast at noon today in Raleigh. It has been a cloudy start to Groundhog Day in Raleigh, but the clouds should break some around midday. Sir Walter Wally may just see his shadow predicting six more weeks of winter.

What do the long range forecasts from meteorologists say about the rest of winter? The February forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows equal chances of above normal and below normal temperatures in the Carolinas. While we have had a few warmer days in the last week, it will not stay warm. Below normal afternoon highs will return to the Carolinas tomorrow and Friday. After a few days into early next week of near to above normal temperatures, colder weather looks to return around the middle of next week.

It is tough to say if the cold winter weather we have experienced so far this winter will stick around for the next six weeks. It's best to take long range forecasts with a grain of salt anyway -- whether that forecast is from a groundhog or a human meteorologist. You may remember the long range forecast for this winter was for warmer than average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. That warmer part of that forecast has certainly not worked out. The drier forecast has been more accurate. Since December, Raleigh-Durham is 3.43" behind in rainfall. Wilmington was about 2" behind for January.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Mainly Rain for Tuesday into Wednesday

Low pressure is still set to track from near the Gulf coast today to near the Carolina coast tonight and tomorrow. This will spread mostly rain across North Carolina by this afternoon and this evening. Rain will continue into the night when a few thunderstorms are possible along the immediate coast.

Occasional rain showers are expected through Wednesday. The rain will change to a heavy wet snow for the North Carolina mountains by Wednesday morning. Areas east of the mountains stand very little chance to see accumulating snow. As the precipitation ends, the northwest Piedmont (northwest of Raleigh and the Triangle) may see a quick burst of snow. If the snow comes down heavy enough, a quick dusting on grassy surfaces is possible in the late afternoon from Greensboro to Roxboro to Oxford and Henderson. There is just a slight chance the Triangle may see a little snow mix in with the rain as the precipitation ends Wednesday afternoon and evening, but that chance appears very small right now.

The rain will be a welcome sight especially in central North Carolina where moderate drought conditions are building across the region. However, rain totals in the central parts of the state may not be as high as first thought yesterday...

It now appears the Triangle and Sandhills will see between 0.5" and 1" of rain while coastal locations could see between 1-2" with locally higher amounts.

Check in with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for updates on the forecast!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist

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Rain by Late Tuesday; What about Wednesday?

Low pressure tracking from near the Gulf coast to near the Carolina coast (or just inland from the Carolina coast) will bring mainly rain to our part of North Carolina for Tuesday into Wednesday. Ever since last week, there was a lot of uncertainty on whether or not this storm would produce snow. While this storm will produce mainly rain in our area, there is still the possibility for a change to some snow around the Triangle to the north and west before ending Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Look for rain to spread across the the Sandhills and coastal areas through Tuesday afternoon with the rain reaching the Triangle by late afternoon and evening. A few light showers are possible in eastern North Carolina mainly near the coast Monday night and early Tuesday morning associated with a coastal front, but the higher rain chance will come by late day Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Precipitation will continue through Tuesday night as all rain across the region. A few thunderstorms may develop right along the coast late Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain showers will continue into Wednesday. Locations south and east of Raleigh should see the precipitation end by late afternoon and evening as rain. From the Triangle to the north and west, it is possible the rain could change to snow for ending. A narrow band of heavy wet snow may fall for a couple to a few hours with the passage of an upper level low pressure system. The better chance for this may come just north and west of the Triangle. A slight change in the track in the upper level low could bring some accumulating snow over the Triangle late Wednesday or take it northwest of the Triangle. By tomorrow, we should have a better idea on what areas may see a change over to snow, but we may not be fully certain until the upper low is actually tracking over the Carolinas Wednesday. The best chance to see accumulating snow Wednesday in North Carolina will be in the higher elevations of the mountains.

Fortunately, this system will bring some much needed rain to our area. Much of central and eastern North Carolina should see between 1-2" of rain with some locally heavier amounts possible near the coast.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest updates on the forecast.


Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Sunday AM Update

The Crystal Coast and parts of the Outer Banks were surprised with the amount of snow they received yesterday. Beaufort, Emerald Isle, and Havelock all reported 7" of snow! Locations along the southeast coast saw much less snow with only 0.1" reported in Wilmington.

Now our attention turns to the storm system expected to impact North Carolina Tuesday into Wednesday. While there is still uncertainty with this storm, it does appear precipitation will start as rain Tuesday for the Triangle and Sandhills and continue as rain into Tuesday night. By early Wednesday. the rain could change to snow for areas just north and west of the Triangle. The Triangle could be very close to the fine line between an area that will see all rain and the area that could change over to snow. Heavy snow is possible during this time period in the North Carolina mountains and foothills. Coastal areas can expect all rain for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Keep in mind the track and strength of low pressure that will move from the the Gulf Coast to near the Carolina coast will ultimately determine the type and amount of precipitation. A slight change in this track could easily create a big change in the forecast.

Just a cold rain is certainly a possibility for much of our area, but a change over to snow is also still a possibility in some locations. We should have better handle on the forecast by Monday. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest in our Weather on the Ones updates.

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Coastal Snow - Saturday

Just a quick update for Saturday evening... heavier snow than expected set up along the Crystal Coast and Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon. As of this posting just before 6pm, we had reports of as much as 7" of snow in Havelock and Emerald Isle and 5" in Morehead City. The snow will taper off along the Crystal Coast into the evening. For more on the latest weather conditions and forecast, check in with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina.

Today's snow along the Crystal Coast just points out how difficult winter weather forecasting is in North Carolina. Low pressure has stayed right off the coast with the precipitation just grazing the coast. However that precipitation just grazing the coast has been enough to produce up to 7" of snow so far in some spots!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Saturday AM Update

Parts of the immediate North Carolina coastline should see some light snow today with the best chance coming during the afternoon and evening. As we have discussed here on the blog over the last couple of days, most of the precipitation with this low pressure should stay offshore. However, some precipitation may just graze the coast and that precipitation should fall as snow. Snowfall amounts should be relatively light with anywhere from a trace to 2" possible close to the immediate coast. I would expect the lighter end of that range along the Cape Fear coast (Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender Counties) with perhaps the higher end of that range along coastal Onslow County, Carteret County, and the southern Outer Banks.

Then our attention turns to next week when several computer models have advertised a winter storm impacting parts of North Carolina from Tuesday into Wednesday. The exact track of this low pressure will determine what parts of the state will see snow and what parts will see rain. Coastal areas will more than likely see mainly rain out of this storm, but the Triangle and Sandhills could fall very close to the rain/snow line. It is still too early to say with any certainty if the Triangle and Sandhills would see mainly snow, mainly rain, or a mix of the two. This morning's hazardous weather outlook from Raleigh's National Weather Service Forecast Office has a good summary of what is possible during that time period:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.

..SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM WILL DETERMINE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR OUR REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A STORM TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT.

IF THIS TRACK DEVIATES MORE INLAND... THEN LESS OF A WINTER STORM IMPACT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MORE RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT. DETAILS OF THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM CONTINUE TO VARY. IT WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY BEFORE THE FORECAST CAN BE FINE TUNED.

STAY TUNED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DETAILS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

We'll keep you posted with the latest forecast with our Weather on the Ones updates on News 14 Carolina!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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Is More Winter Weather on the Way? - Friday AM Update

Computer models appear to be in better agreement this morning that low pressure will track up the Carolina coast during the early to middle part of next week bringing snow and rain to North Carolina. Some areas will see just rain, others will see all snow, and other may see a mix of snow to rain to snow.

Since we are still several days away, it is still much too early to make a call on what locations in the state could see significant snow and what areas would see just a cold rain. Based on the latest model data this morning, the Triangle would fall very close to the rain/snow line with significant snows possible to the west especially in the foothills and mountains. However, that all depends on the exact track of the low pressure. If the track changes more to the east, more significant snow would be possible toward the Triangle and even the Sandhills. At the same time, a more inland or westerly track would mean just rain for those areas. It appears the coast would mainly see just rain.

I caution that all of this is subject to change. Nailing down the exact track of low pressure that hasn't even developed yet is pretty much impossible at this point. We are still several days away and the models don't fully have a handle on how this storm system will evolve. Keep an eye on the forecast especially for Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday.

On another note, before we get to next week, low pressure will develop off the southeast coast Saturday. It should stay far enough offshore that any precipitation with that low will be out to sea. There is just a slight chance that the southern Outer Banks and Crystal Coast could see a few flurries or light snow showers Saturday evening.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest forecast!

Lee Ringer
News 14 Carolina Meteorologist
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