Friday, January 18, 2008

Accumulating Snow Possible Saturday

There have been some pretty significant changes in our computer model forecasts over the last 24 to 36 hours. Those changes point toward a fairly good chance that we will see some snow across central North Carolina on Saturday.

An area of low pressure is developing this morning off the Texas Gulf coast. That low will track across the Gulf coast toward the Carolina coast late tonight into tomorrow. That will spread precipitation across the Carolinas Saturday just as cold air is arriving. The precipitation will likely start as all rain Saturday morning, but as temperatures drop I expect that rain to change to snow by the afternoon in the Triangle and by the evening for areas from Fayetteville to Goldsboro and Wilson.

Saturday's storm will be somewhat different in structure than the storm that brought us a cold rain on Thursday. The type of weather setup that we are looking for Saturday does not tend to bring an icy mix, instead it will bring a quick changeover from all rain to all snow.

When snow is in the forecast, the big question is just how much. The answer to that is still uncertain, and when it comes to snow in North Carolina that answer often remains uncertain until the snow is actually falling. However, with the chance for snow just one day away, I've attempted to tackle that question based on the weather data that I have reviewed so far today and tomorrow. It appears much of the Triangle could see between 2 and 5 inches of snow. With the changeover taking a little longer to the east of the Triangle, Fayetteville to Goldsboro and Wilson should look for 1 to 3 inches with lesser amounts the farther east you get from the Triangle.

Again, I'll emphasize that this forecast is not written in stone. There will likely be changes in the next 24 hours. We'll review the latest weather data and provide updated weather information every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones only on News 14 Carolina. Stay tuned...

1 comment:

Gregory said...

Thanks for keeping us informed with plenty of detail. The News14 mets are great!