On January 13-14, 2005 a storm system produced severe weather across North Carolina including a weak F0 tornado that swept through a small part of Orange County. The above map and photo was taken from a storm damage survey from the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh.
That same system caused several wind damage reports across central North Carolina as well and one other tornado in northern Warren County near the Virginia border. It was not too long after that when the weather looked like this in Raleigh..
As of early Thursday morning, the Storm Prediction Center has placed eastern North Carolina under a "slight risk" for severe storms. The severe weather threat could bring gusty and damaging winds in the strongest storms. It's not a guarantee that we will see severe storms Friday morning, but the chance is there. We'll have updates every 10 minutes on News 14 Carolina with more frequent updates if warranted.
So how will the weather change from Friday? First off, we expect cooler weather for the weekend with highs in the 50s on Saturday and possibly only the 40s for Sunday. By Sunday, it appears low pressure will be forming off the Carolina coast. Computer forecast models have "flipped and flopped" back and forth with the solution for late Sunday and early Monday. Some models have kept the low far enough east that it would not bring any precipitation to our part of the state. Others this morning's 6Z run of the GFS (posted below) model brings the low right along the coast bringing some a needed cold soaking rain our way by late Sunday afternoon and evening.
The above model forecast is taken for Sunday evening. If the low does take that track, we would see a cold rain through Sunday night and possibly lasting into the early morning hours on Monday. As the low pulls away from the coast, it would pull in cold air behind it. That could be enough to change the rain to some light snow in the Piedmont (areas west of the Triangle) early on Monday. However, that all depends on the exact track of the low. With the computer models still varying on their forecasts for late Sunday and early Monday, it is too early to make a call on exactly what we expect. So for now, it's just another system to watch closely. We certainly will be watching it, and you can count on News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates into the weekend as we fine tune that late weekend forecast. Stay tuned...
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