Severe Weather Season -- Are You Ready?

This week started with snow in the Carolinas and highs in the 30s. By the end of this weekend, we may see high temperatures near 80 degrees. March can bring wild swings in our weather. Those wild swings in weather can also include severe weather. That is why the first week of March has been designated as Severe Weather Awareness Week for the state. Severe weather can happen any time of of the year, but it is more common during the upcoming spring months.

When you think of of severe weather, you may think of tornadoes in the Great Plains of the United States. The central U.S. from South Dakota to northern Texas is an area that is often referred to as Tornado Alley. That region of the country experiences more tornadoes than any place on Earth. While severe weather does happen more often there, we are not immune from storms in North Carolina. In fact, the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh this week quoted a recent study that shows North Carolina leads the nation in the number of killer night time tornadoes!

There are several examples of such tragic events in our recent history. Folks that have lived around Raleigh for a while may remember November 28, 1988 when an F4 tornado touched down in north Raleigh and travelled almost to the Virgina border killing 4 people and injuring over 150. More recent examples of night time tornadoes came just last year on November 15.

Tornado damage in Kenly on November 15, 2008. National Weather Service photo.

Tornado damage near Elm City in Wilson County on November 15, 2008. National Weather Service photo.

Several tornadoes touched down in the eastern Carolinas during the very early morning hours of November 15, 2008. One of those tornadoes near Elm City in Wilson County killed one person and injured four.

With these facts, we should all ask ourselves -- are we prepared if severe weather were to strike at night? It does happen in North Carolina and our history tells us it can be deadly.

The one device that could prevent some deaths from night time tornadoes is a NOAA Weather Radio. These radios will automatically sound an alarm if a severe weather warning is issued in your area. The most recent weather radio models featuring S.A.M.E. technology allow you to program your radio to only alert you for the county where you live. A NOAA Weather Radio is just as important to have in your home as a smoke detector. Every home in North Carolina should have one! Does yours?

If you do not have a weather radio, now is a great time to purchase one. They are available at most electronic stores. You should be able to pick up one for under $50. Be sure to pick a radio with the S.A.M.E. technology and one that has backup battery power in case the electricity goes out.

If you do already have a weather radio, now would be a great time to make sure yours has fresh batteries. Just like smoke detectors, experts recommend you change the battery twice a year. Time change weekends, such as this weekend, is a great time to change your batteries!

Read more about the severe weather events I mentioned in this blog plus find out more about NOAA Weather Radio through these links --

• Raleigh tornado of November 28, 1988
• November 15, 2008 Tornado Outbreak
• NOAA Weather Radio

Recap of Early Week Snow

This week's snowfall in the Triangle ranked as the 7th highest March snowfall on record since 1944 at the Raleigh-Durham Airport.

1. March 1, 1969 -- 9.3"
2. March 2, 1980 -- 9.0"
3. March 24, 1983 -- 7.3"
4. March 9, 1960 -- 6.9"
5. March 2, 1960 -- 6.5"
6. March 26, 1971 -- 5.2"
7. March 2, 2009 -- 3.2"
8. March 25, 1974 -- 2.9"
9. March 25, 1972 -- 2.6"
10. March 6, 1962 -- 2.3"

A little late in posting this...

but check out the visible satellite from the lunch hour on Wednesday. Leftover snow is still easily spotted from New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia right down into North Carolina. As highs climb over the next few days the snow will quickly melt away.

Monday 2pm Update -- Updated NC Snowfall List

• Beech Mountain: 15.0"
• Banner Elk: 8.0"
• Roxboro: 7.0"
• High Point: 6.0"
• Henderson: 5.8"
• Greensboro: 5.7"
• Thomasville: 5.5"
• Advance: 5.2"
• Burlington: 5.0"
• Durham: 4.0"
• Kannapolis: 4.0"
• Lexington: 4.0"
• Oxford: 4.0"
• Statesville: 4.0"
• Pittsboro: 3.5"
• Youngsville: 3.5"
• Siler City: 3.4"
• Hillsborough: 3.3"
• RDU Airport: 3.2"
• Carthage: 3.0"
• Cary: 3.0"
• Concord: 3.0"
• Louisburg: 3.0"
• Raleigh (NCSU): 2.5"
• Wake Forest: 2.4"
• Knightdale: 2.1"
• Clayton: 2.0"
• Roanoke Rapids: 2.0"
• Warrenton: 2.0"
• Holly Springs: 1.5"
• Sanford: 1.5"
• Wilson: 1.5"
• Tarboro: 1.0"
• Angier: 0.6"
• Lillington: 0.5"
• Fayetteville: Trace
• Goldsboro: Trace
• Spring Lake: Trace

5:30am Update -- NC Snow Reports

Updated snow accumulations from around NC:

• Saluda: 12.3"
• Kings Mountain: 9.0"
• Roxboro: 7.0"
• Charlotte: 6.0"
• Cherryville: 6.0"
• High Point: 6.0"
• Thomasville: 5.5"
• Greensboro: 5.0"
• Roxboro: 5.0"
• Winston-Salem: 5.0"
• Burlington: 4.5"
• Oxford: 4.0"
• RDU Airport: 3.2"
• Asheboro: 3.0"
• Lexington: 3.0"
• Louisburg: 3.0"
• NE Raleigh: 3.0"
• Hillsborough: 2.5"
• Durham: 2.0"
• Robbins: 2.0"
• Warrenton: 2.0"
• Sanford: 1.5"
• Franklinton: 1.0"
• Clayton: 0.5"
• Lillington: 0.5"
• Fayetteville: Trace
• Spring Lake: Trace

2:30am Monday Update

The above picture was taken around 2am by a News 14 Carolina viewer near Moore Square and City Market in downtown Raleigh. Send your reports and pictures to weather@news14.com.

Updated accumulation reports...

• Greensboro: 2.5"
• Robbins: 2.0"
• Cary: 1.0"
• Garner: 1.0"
• RDU Airport: 1.0"
• Raleigh: 1.0"

Great Visible Sat Image...

Wanna see snow from space? Check out this visible satellite image from Sunday afternoon. If you look at Western Tennessee you're not seeing clouds, but nearly 7-10" of fresh snow. Memphis collected enough snow to shut down I-40 for a long period of time on Saturday. It will be interesting to see a visible image Monday afternoon for the Carolinas.

What's the Weather Like in Your Neighborhood?

Check out the pictures of snow in Atlanta Josh posted in the blog post below this one.... when the snow starts to fall in your neighborhood, send us your weather reports and winter weather pictures. E-mail weather@news14.com. Be sure to include your city or community when e-mailing.

Deep South Snow...

Lee posted a Tweet about snow in the ATL. Here's some proof. I collected a couple shots from I-75. The interstate is a major artery into and out of Atlanta, GA. The white stuff is on the way...

Early Sunday Morning Update

Some updated thoughts on the winter weather coming up for North Carolina....

- A cold rain is expected across the Triangle and Sandhills this morning. At times, that rain could mix with sleet especially north and west of Raleigh.

- A wintry mix will be possible this afternoon with a burst of all snow possible by late afternoon in the Triangle.

- Ground temperatures are warm, but a quick burst of moderate to heavy snowfall could still accumulate in the late afternoon and evening. Snowfall with a lighter intensity would not be able to cool the ground and may not be able to accumulate.

- All snow is expected late tonight into early Monday morning. The snow should taper off around daybreak.

- Based on the latest data, I still expect snow accumulations around 2-4" in the Raleigh area. On the north and west side of the Triangle, the Durham and Chapel Hill area may see more with accumualations around 3-6" with the higher accumuations expected the closer you get to Greensboro. An area around the Triad (Greensboro-Winston-Salem) to Charlotte could see 4-7" with a narrow band of even higher snowfall (7"+) still possible. Keep in mind if the storm track were to shift east, higher accumulations could shift to the east into the Triangle.

- Areas south and east of the Triangle may still see some accumulation into early Monday morning as well. Wilson to Goldsboro to Fayetteville could have 1-2". Southeast of Wilson, Goldsboro, and Fayetteville toward the coast may see a few snow showers or flurries but little to no accumulation is expected.

News 14 Carolina has the winter weather covered with weather updates every 10 minutes around the clock. Let us know what's happening in your part of North Carolina. Send weather conditions from your neighborhood and weather pictures to weather@news14.com. You can also stay connected with our weather team through the comment section on this blog or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Our Twitter and Facebook links can be found on the right side of the blog.

Saturday Afternoon Update

After checking new model data and listening in to a conference call with the Raleigh National Weather Service, I thought I would share a few updated thoughts on the weather through the rest of the weekend...

- Rain showers and drizzle can be expected to continue tonight. As of 2pm, RDU reported 0.43" of rain since yesterday. 0.73" at Fayetteville and 0.29" at Wilmington.

- Look for rain showers tomorrow morning and early afternoon. At times, the rain may be mixed with sleet especially in the afternoon.

- Some snow showers are possible Sunday afternoon in the Triangle, but look for a changeover to all snow by late Sunday night across the Triangle and Sandhills.

- With warm ground temperatures, snow accumulations Sunday night into Monday morning will all depend on the rate of snowfall. If we see mainly light snow, look for little accumulation as the light snow would melt when hitting the warm ground. A moderate to heavy snowfall rate would cause the ground to cool faster allowing for accumulation.

- Based on the latest data, I would think 1-4" of snow are possible in the Triangle with lesser amounts east of Raleigh and higher amounts west of Raleigh.

- Heavier accumulations are expected between Charlotte and Greensboro and points to the west toward the mountains. 4-7" are possible in this area with a band of heavier snow still possible.

- The above snow accumulation forecasts are based on the expected track of low pressure. If it were to track to the west, the Triangle would see less snow. A more easterly track would bring higher totals to the Triangle.

- Snow showers should taper off pretty quickly between daybreak and mid-morning.

- The NC coast may see a few scattered snow showers or flurries early Monday morning, but no accumulation is expected.

- Don't look for much pre-treatment of area roadways by the DOT. The brine solution that is sometimes used for pre-treatment depends on dry roadway before snow starts to fall. While I'm not an expert in road treatment, since we should see rain right up to the changeover to snow, I would expect the DOT will use other methods to keep our roads clear in NC.

- It should be quite breezy Sunday afternoon through Monday with winds at 15 to 25mph. Higher gusts will be possible. Wind chills should be in the teens into Monday.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for the latest in our Weather on the Ones updates.

Saturday Morning Video Blog Update

Winter Storm Watch

From the Raleigh National Weather Service Office this morning....

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTHCAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING....

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THESOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-282200-/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0002.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH.. .ALBEMARLE...TROY...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
424 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDMORNING ON MONDAY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL BE ALL RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON... BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... ALONG AND WEST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR.

TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING AND SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PEOPLE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

March Snows

By now, you've probably heard the chatter about snow in the forecast for late in the weekend and early next week. While it's too early to say exactly what areas of central and eastern North Carolina will see snow and how much will fall, it has people asking how rare is snow in March?


While snow is not a frequent event in March, there are several examples of significant March snowfalls. One famous event was a storm dubbed the March 1993 Superstorm. That storm only produced about an inch of snow across the Triangle, but it was a much different story in the mountains where they measured the snow in feet --

In March 1983, a storm dropped up to 8 to 9 inches on portions of eastern and northeastern North Carolina --

And, in March of 1980, a storm on the first two days of the month produced over a foot of snow in eastern North Carolina --

If you go way back, you'll also find a big snow storm that produced 17.8" of snow in Raleigh. That was the record snowfall for the Triangle until January 2000.

Will March 2009 go down in the book as starting with snow? Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones as we fine tune the forecast for late in the weekend and early next week.

Early Friday Morning Update

Just taking a look at the latest model data early this morning... and there really are no big changes in the thinking for our weekend forecast. Most of today should be mostly cloudy and mild. We may see a few showers by late afternoon and evening. Our rain chances will pick up during the day Saturday when the rain may be heavy at times. Lingering showers will continue into Sunday. From tonight through Sunday morning, we could see anywhere between 1 to 2 inches of rain.

Colder air will be moving into North Carolina Sunday as an upper level low pressure system helps to develop a surface low pressure off the Carolina coast. That system has the potential to produce what could be a significant winter weather event somewhere in the central and eastern Carolinas. Questions still remain as to what part of the Carolinas would see the highest precipitation. There is still a fair amount of disagreement among the various computer forecast models. It is still much to early to start speculating on snowfall amounts except to say this type of storm system is one that can create a "big impact" event in our area. However, the computer models haven't been too reliable this winter season, and if you have lived in North Carolina long enough, you know there can be a lot of changes in a winter weather forecast.

Here's a quote from this morning's forecast discussion issued by the National Weather Service in Raleigh:

GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE EVENT...IT IS IMPORTANT THAT RESIDENTS...STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS...STAY WELL INFORMED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT EVOLVES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SCALELIFT...WITH HEAVY PRECIP BANDS THAT TYPICALLY RESULT IN A HIGH SOCIAL AND ECONOMICAL IMPACTS.

We'll continue to provide the most up to date information every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina through the weekend. As time permits, we'll have updates here on our weather blog and on our Twitter updates seen on the right side of our blog. As always, we welcome your questions in our blog's comment section.

March in Like a Lion?

Know that saying about March coming in like a lion? It could hold true this weekend in North Carolina. A complex weather setup will come together over the Carolinas this weekend. In fact, we have a little bit of everything in the forecast.... warm, cold, rain, chance for storms, and even the chance for winter precipitation. A lot can still change between now and then weekend, but take an in-depth look at our latest thinking on the weekend forecast in this morning's video blog posted below...

Rain for the Weekend?

It looks like our rain chances are increasing for the weekend. Take an in-depth look at what we are watching for the weekend in this morning's video blog update posted below...

We Could Use a Little Rain...

Rainfall deficits for 2009 are growing across North Carolina. As of this morning, Raleigh-Durham is 3.28" behind normal for rain this year and Wilmington is 4.45" behind normal. If we don't see much rain over the coming days or weeks, much of the state will likely slip back into a drought situation.

The latest drought monitor released last week now has portions of eastern North Carolina under a moderate drought with a severe to moderate drought in western North Carolina. The rest of the state is considered to be "abnormally dry," the stage just before a moderate drought.

Unfortunately, the prospects for rain aren't looking to good for most of this week. We do anticipate a front to move into the state Friday that should bring our next chance for measurable rain. It still to early to say exactly how much rain we can expect out of that system. That may be one of our few chances for rain over the coming week or two. The six to ten day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center forecasts below normal precipitation for our part of the country...

Friday Morning Update

This weekend's precipitation chances are now looking very slim now. Some areas may see a sprinkle of rain or perhaps a snow flurry early Sunday. Otherwise, cool weather will continue into early next week, but warm weather fans may have something to look forward to late next week. Check out this morning's video blog update for more...

Update on the Weekend Forecast

A front moving through North Carolina may produce some light precipitation late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. At this time the moisture looks limited, but some light snow is possible across the Triangle early Sunday. Check out the latest thinking on the forecast in this morning's video blog posted below...

Rain Totals Since Wednesday

• Jacksonville: 1.23"
• New Bern: 1.13"
• Beaufort: 1.12"
• Laurinburg: 0.96"
• Fayetteville: 0.89"
• Cherry Point: 0.83"
• Goldsboro: 0.75"
• Wilmington: 0.68"
• Raleigh-Durham: 0.59"
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 0.57"
• Chapel Hill: 0.52"
• Lumberton: 0.52"

Looking Ahead to the Weekend...

After we get through today's rain weather, our attention will turn to the weekend forecast. Some computer models this week have suggested the potential of some winter weather in North Carolina by Sunday morning. A lot of uncertainty remains in the forecast, and it is too early to make a definite call on exactly what we may expect over the weekend. Check out the scenarios that may play out in this morning's video blog posted below...

Looking for Some Needed Rain

Rainfall deficits for 2009 are growing without much recent rain. Since January 1, the Triangle is around 3 inches behind normal for the year and the southeast coast is just over 4 inches behind. We all have a chance to put a dent in that deficit this week. For more on our midweek rain chances, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Evening Update

Goodbye Early Spring Weather...

Temperatures have been well above normal for February ever since last weekend. That quickly comes to an end this weekend. For an update on what we are watching for the weekend and early next week, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Warm Again Today but Not for Long...

Temperatures will return to the 70s today as we look for a warm and windy Wednesday. Our spring like weather won't last for much longer though. For more on the changes ahead over the next week, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Enjoy the Warm Weather While It Lasts....

Temperatures near 70 are back in the forecast today with the low to mid 70s expected for Wednesday. That is near average temperatures for April instead of February, so one would think the 70s can't last forever in February. And, that's right. We look to return to colder weather starting this weekend and for what appears to be much of next week.

Here's the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center...

And, here's the 8-14 day temperature outlook...

La Nina through Spring

In making long range seasonal forecasts, one of the big factors meteorologists and climatologists look at is the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. That is the interaction between atmospheric patterns and the water temperature of portions of the Pacific Ocean. Most every one knows this as El Nino and La Nina. El Nino and La Nina can impact weather patterns across the globe.

Last week, the Climate Prediction Center forecast La Nina conditions to continue into spring. We cannot say La Nina will bring a specific type of weather, but in general, it can impact weather patterns here in North Carolina. According to research at North Carolina State University and the State Climate Office of North Carolina, there appears to be a trend for more tornadoes during La Nina events.

Read more about La Nina's impacts on North Carolina weather and the following links from the State Climate Office of North Carolina:

• http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/enso.html
• http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/PDFs/office/25th/enso.pdf

Plus, read more about the Climate Prediction Center's Forecast and exactly what La Nina means:

• http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html
• http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
• http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html
• http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

February Weather Trends

It has been a cold week in North Carolina and I've talked to a lot of folks that are looking forward to this weekend's warmer weather. Most people then want to know if the warm weather will last. Unfortunately, our warmer than normal weekend weather will more than likely not last for the rest of February but it may last into next week.

The 6 to 10 day outlook seen above from the Climate Prediction Center indicates we can look for above average temperatures through most of next week. In fact, our Weather on the Ones 7-day forecast this morning shows the mid to upper 60s for the middle of next week. If you're a warm weather fan, you may not be so exicted beyond Valentine's Day...

The 8 to 14 day outlook (above) from the Climate Prediction Center shows below average temperatures spreading in to much of the United States. Keep in mind we're just looking at weather trends past 5 to 7 days, so its too early to say exactly what we may see for the rest of February. However, I think its safe to say we will still see some ups and downs in our temperatures through the month.

Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones and News 14 Carolina for our latest forecasts. You can always catch our 7-day forecast at :21 and :51 past the hour.

Wednesday's Snow

Here's a look back at the snowfall across North Carolina from late Tuesday into Wednesday..

National Weather Person's Day!

Today is National Weather Person's Day! Today the Weather on the Ones Team thanks our partners at the National Weather Service Offices in the Carolinas who have a great working relationship with the media!

Here's more information on the day from a press release issued by the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh --

Thursday, February 5 is National Weatherman's Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation.

Many of us take weather information for granted. Turn on a light switch, you get light. Turn on your television or radio, or check a web site and you get the weather forecast. It’s easy to forget that around the clock, dedicated meteorologists and weathercasters are vigilantly creating forecasts to help you plan your day, and issuing warnings to help keep you safe.

The men and women at your local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast office gather the raw weather data, analyze the data, and study numerical computer models in order to issue the weather and river forecasts and warnings to protect life and property. Specialized marine and aviation forecasts help enhance the Nation’s economy. Spot forecasts help firefighters control wildfires and emergency management officials contain hazardous chemical spills. Extensive climate records help engineers, architects, researchers, insurance companies and utilities.

The primary mission of the NWS is to provide the American public with the best possible warning service to save lives. Recent severe weather statistics show that we continue to improve our capability to warn the public of impending hazardous weather. Nationally, lead time for flash flood warnings improved from 22 minutes in 1993 to 78 minutes in 2008. Accuracy over the same time period increased from 71 percent to 91 percent. Lead time for tornado warnings has increased from 6 minutes in 1993 to nearly 15 minutes today. Tornado warning accuracy increased from 43 percent to 75 percent. Winter storm accuracy in 2008 was 89 percent with an average lead time of 17 hours. Since 1990, the Tropical Prediction Center’s 24 to 72 hour tropical storm forecast track errors have been reduced by more than 50%. These more accurate and longer lead time warnings help communities stay safe.

Locally, the Raleigh NWS forecast office, which serves 31 counties in central North Carolina, had an accuracy of 83 percent for tornado warnings in 2008 with an average lead time of 15 minutes. For the stronger and more dangerous EF2 and greater tornadoes, the numbers improve to 100 percent detection with 20 minutes of lead time. Flash flood warning accuracy was 90 percent with an average lead time of 60 minutes. For the recent winter storm, the first to impact the area in five years, accuracy was 100 percent with an average Winter Storm Watch lead time of 29 hours.

But the NWS couldn't accomplish its mission without a diverse group of partners helping in the process.

Nationwide, more than 11,000 volunteer Cooperative Observers take regular measurements of temperature, precipitation and other data, which is used by forecasters and climatologists. Nearly 300,000 volunteer storm spotters are trained by the NWS to provide visual reports of severe weather conditions to forecast offices and local emergency management officials. Volunteer amateur radio operators provide critical emergency communications during severe weather.

The Raleigh NWS office has a network of 80 dedicated volunteer Cooperative Observers throughout central North Carolina. Nearly 500 volunteer observers report through the new Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network. Thousands of people attend SKYWARN severe storm spotter training classes in the local area each year.

Most of the colorful weather graphics seen on television and in newspapers come from another member of the America's weather team. Commercial weather companies enhance the presentation of the NWS data and information for their clients in the media and in many weather-sensitive industries, and provide customized forecasts and services for clients.
And finally, television weathercasters are the most visible members of the America's weather team. They are the trusted faces many people turn to for weather information, and they relay the NWS’s official watches and warnings for hazardous weather.

On National Weatherman's Day, the NWS would like to thank all of the volunteers and our partners in television and commercial weather services. Thank you!

To learn more about weather and how to help serve your local communities please visit:

Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow (CoCoRaHS): http://cocorahs.org/
NWS SKYWARN Program: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/skywarn
Central Carolina SKYWARN: http://centralcarolinaskywarn.net/
Triad SKYWARN: http://www.triadskywarn.com/
Online Weather School: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/

Snow to the Coast

The Raleigh/Durham area may have missed out on the snow today, but snow showers did make it all the way to the coast. Our coastal channel viewers sent us pictures including the two posted above. The first picture was taken by John Lytvinenko at Holden Beach and second was taken by Scottie Blick at Ocean Isle.

Snow pictures from News 14 Carolina viewers around the state are posted on news14.com. You can find them on our home page this evening or check out this direct link -- http://www.news14.com/content/top_stories/604481/share-pictures-of-your-snow-day-with-news-14/Default.aspx

If you have any photos from earlier today to share with us, you can still send them to weather@news14.com.

Here's an updated look at snow totals from around our area:

• Benson: 3.0"
• Dunn: 3.0"
• Pinehurst: 3.0"
• Saratoga: 3.0"
• Southern Pines: 3.0"
• Angier: 2.5"
• Lillington: 2.5"
• Wilson: 2.5"
• Bladenboro: 2.0"
• Laurinburg: 2.0"
• Smithfield: 2.0"
• Farmville: 1.5"
• Goldsboro: 1.5"
• Ocean Isle: 1.1"
• Longwood: 1.0"
• Red Springs: 0.5"
  

8am update

Updated snow totals --

• Benson: 3.0"
• Dunn: 3.0"
• Pinehurst: 3.0"
• Saratoga: 3.0"
• Southern Pines: 3.0"
• Goldsboro: 2.5"
• Lillington: 2.5"
• Wilson: 2.5"
• Laurinburg: 2.0"
• Rosewood: 2.0"
• Smithfield: 2.0"
• Fayetteville: 1.0"

Snow showers are now beginning to move toward the coast including around Wilmington. Send your snow reports and pictures to weather@news14.com

6am update

Again, no snow day for the Triangle... the snow developed mainly south and east of Raleigh. Here's a look at snow totals so far:

• Lillington: 2.0"


• Tarboro: 2.0"


• Smithfield: 1.5"


• Fayetteville: 1.0"


• Wilson: 1.0"

You can send your pictures and snow reports to weather@news14.com.

Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones for the latest...

3:30 am Update

The band of snow across central North Carolina has set up farther south than originally expected. The band of accumulating snow looks to stay mainly south of Raleigh. In our viewing area, Moore County to Harnett County to Johnston County to Wilson and Wayne Counties will likely see the most snow. This region may see up to 4". As of 3am this morning we had had viewer reports of just over 2" in Moore County near the Hoke County like and between 1 and 2 inches in Smithfield. Charlotte Nelson of Smithfield sent us the above picture from Smithfield early this morning.

You can send your snow totals and weather pictures to weather@news14.com.

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates through the morning.

Chance for Snow Tonight Into Wednesday Morning

Some of the latest weather data suggests the Triangle may see around 1 to 3 inches of snow through tomorrow morning with somewhat higher amounts possible north of Raleigh toward the Virginia border. Because of that, the National Weather Service this afternoon has posted a Winter Storm Warning for areas north of the Triangle for tonight through tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the same time period from the Triad through the Triangle to Wilson and Goldsboro.

The Weather on the Ones Forecast Center will be staffed around the clock. We'll continue to monitor the latest weather information and update the forecast as necessary. Count on the latest updates available every 10 minutes only on News 14 Carolina.

Post your weather report from your neighborhood in our comment section on our blog, or e-mail your report and pictures to weather@news14.com.

Some Snow Possible Tonight?

Areas around the Triangle saw a little snow very early this morning around 2 to 4am. As expected, the snow didn't amount to much. Locations that did see some snow reported around a trace to just a little more --

• Henderson: 0.3"
• Oxford: 0.3"
• Hillsborough: 0.2"
• Louisburg: 0.2"
• Apex: Trace
• Raleigh: Trace
• Warrenton: Trace

We have the chance to see a bit more snow than that late tonight into early Wednesday morning. This system will have limited moisture but may have just enough to produce around an inch of snow around the Triangle and perhaps just a little more north of Raleigh. I have more on tonight's snow chances in this morning's video blog posted below...

Groundhog's Day Blog Update

Happy Groundhog's Day! Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning in Pennsylvania and is predicting six more weeks of winter. North Carolina's groundhog Sir Walter Wally will make his official prediction at noon today.

For more on those and other groundhogs, check out their websites:

• Sir Walter Wally
• Punxsutwaney Phil
• General Beau Lee
• Staten Island Chuck
• Jimmy the Groundhog

No matter what the Groundhog says we look to have colder weather through midweek with a couple limited chances to at least see some snow flurries. Then we look for a warm up for the weekend.

Light rain showers are in the forecast tonight, but they may briefly change to a light snow shower before ending during the very early morning hours on Tuesday. Another disturbance could produce snow showers late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. For more on those chances check out today's video blog update posted below...

Saturday Update

Just took a quick look at the latest model guidance today. There appears to be a trend for less moisture with the early week storm system for North Carolina. This may suggest only some rain showers Monday night changing to a few flurries or light snow showers very early Tuesday morning with very little precipitation during the day. The storm still looks to a be big headache for folks in parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Since we are still a couple days out from when this storm actually develops, we may still see changes in the forecast. We'll continue to follow the latest trends and fine tune the forecast as needed. Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina through the weekend for the latest updates.

Friday Morning Update on Storm System for Next Week

Storm System for Next Week?

Yesterday was another active weather day across our region with windy conditions and rain into the afternoon and evening. Peak wind gusts around our area included 40mph at the Raleigh-Durham International Airport, 41mph at the Fayetteville Regional Aiport, and 43mph at the Wilmington International Airport.

Our winds are much calmer this morning, and as I write this blog the sun is finally breaking out for the first time this week! We'll enjoy calm weather conditions through the weekend, but we are looking for an active weather pattern to return for the first of next week. By late Sunday and early Monday, we'll be tracking a developing storm system across the southeast. Find out how this storm may impact our area with the chance for winter weather by Tuesday in parts of the state, when you view this morning's video blog posted below...

Ice Storm 2009!

If you were watching News 14 Carolina last weekend you heard me mention there was going to be a HUGE winter storm for the Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Red River Vally's on the way this week. Sure enough the nightmare scenario came true for residents from Oklahoma, Arkansas, Southern Missouri and Kentucky.

The Courier-Journal from Louisville, Kentucky is reporting as many as 205,000 people in The River City are without power. Some residents may be without electricity for the next 10 days! At the moment, this same paper is reporting to its readers this storm has caused the second worst power outage in Kentucky state history. Want to know the seriousness of this ice storm? My Mom sent me a picture message from her cell phone that drives home this point (top of page). It shows a 15-20 foot tall tree that's fallen over on the drive way- crushing the fence to my childhood home! If you look closely you can see the basketball goal where I would shoot hoops. This is the same goal I used to imagine that I was a member of the Kentucky basketball squad playing against a Roy Williams coached Kansas team! That's how long it's been since I shot a basket on this hoop. Nostalgia aside, this is a terrible storm that's going to take weeks to dig out from.

Be sure to tune in to the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center on Thursday as we talk about a potentially tricky situation early next week.

So, what are some of the snow and ice totals from Louisville and Lexington, Kentucky? Here's the list from 7pm Wednesday evening. Snow is listed first, followed by ice accretion- both in inches.

LOUISVILLE METRO...     4.5 TO 6 INCHES      0.5 TO 0.75 INCH.
LEXINGTON-FAYETTE...    1 TO 2 INCHES        0.5 INCH.

Active January

I was just looking over our blog posts this month, and it reminded me it has been an active January when it comes to our weather. A front on January 7th produced tropical storm force wind gusts across the state. The middle of the month featured an Arctic blast that brought our area some of the coldest weather we have had in a few years. Then just last week we saw the first measurable snowfall central and eastern North Carolina has seen in a few years. Snowfall reports topped out as high as 6 to 7 inches near Raleigh.

Today, the active January weather pattern continues. Just this morning a warm front is passing through the state bringing temperatures into the 60s to near 70 in some spots. A cold front will bring rain and windy weather later in the day. Wind gusts as high as 35 to 40mph are in the forecast this afternoon.

Once the storm passes, we do look for quiet weather to round out the rest of the month. However, February may get off to an active start with a storm system expected to impact our area the first of next week. Stay tuned through the rest of the week for the latest on that forecast...

Final Snowfall Totals from January 20th

Here's the total snowfall from the Inauguration Day storm of 2009 for Central and Eastern North Carolina. Many areas have had total snow melt, but in recent days I have been able to spot some shady places where remnants are still visible.

This week our attention turns to rain that will be sticking around from Tuesday through Thursday. Be sure to stop by the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center for more details.

Inauguration Day Storm of 2009

After hours of live coverage from News 14 Carolina, we can look back today to see the body of work that was compiled on Tuesday, January 20, 2009.

It all kicked off a little after 3 am as Lee Ringer brought you the first initial rains changing to snow for the viewing area. I met up with him around 5am and was ready to hit the air at 6 for what turned out to be a tag team event over the following 6 hours! Outside reports from Ilin Chen and Amy Davis only helped to bring the outstanding coverage to you at home. Not only did our coverage hit the Triangle, but viewers were watching updates along the Coast from our office as well.

Thank goodness Pati Darak came in to assist behind the scenes from 9am-11:30am as we were seeing snowfall reports climbing inch by inch in the Triangle! At 11:30am we shifted attention to the history making event that was not to be upstaged by Mother Nature- Barack Obama becoming the 44th President of the United States. After stepping out of Inauguration coverage we were back on the air as Pati took over updating viewers as the storm started to wrap up across Central North Carolina and continued to produce snow over the Coast.

I finally took off as Gary Stephenson arrived at 2pm. Pati and Gary saw this storm off the Coast and took viewers through the official totals along with what would be a tricky night ahead as icy spots developed across the region.

Thanks to all the viewers who took time to share your snow pictures. It made our coverage more accurate and timely. Your viewership is appreciated and we try each and everyday to bring you the best forecast as well as the best coverage during severe weather. Thanks again for watching and stay tuned, winter still has two months to go!

1pm Update

Almost 5 inches of snow measured in Fayetteville submitted by viewer KJ Westmen.

Here's a look at other snow totals as of late this morning midday from around the region...

• Pittsboro: 7.0"
• North Raleigh: 6.0"
• Clayton: 5.5"
• Bunnlevel: 4.8"
• Carthage: 4.0"
• Fayetteville: 4.0"
• Wilson: 3.5"
• RDU Airport: 3.4"
• Butner: 3.0"
• Oxford: 2.5"
• Chapel Hill: 2.0"

Light snow continues to fall across parts of the area. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for Weather on the Ones updates every 10 minutes.

We also continue to receive hundered of your weather photos! Thanks for sharing! Because of the volume of photos, we can only show select photos during Weather on the Ones. However, we are attempting to post as many photos as possible on news14.com.

You can share your snow totals and pictures from your neighborhood by e-mailing weather@news14.com.

You can also leave your snow total reports in the comment section of our blog.

8am Update

3-4" of snow now reported across parts of Wake County.

How much have you seen in your neighborhood? Let us know in the comment section below or send an e-mail to weather@news14.com

7am Update

Above photo was taken by a viewer in the 6am hour from Holly Springs. They reported 1.5" of snow so far there. There have been reports up to 3" so far around Raleigh.

Send your photos and reports to weather@news14.com or leave a comment on our blog.

Snow Pictures

The first snow pictures of the day are starting to come into the Forecast Center. You can share yours by e-mailing weather@news14.com. We'll show some during Weather on the Ones and on news14.com.

As of 5am, snow was sticking on road surfaces across the region. There were also reports of up to an inch of accumulation on grassy surfaces.

Snow!

Ever since last week, it looked like we were in a weather pattern that COULD produce snow across the Carolinas. The cold air certainly was here. We just need one other ingredient... moisture. Early this morning computer forecast models have come into better agreement that we may get that needed ingredient for snow. Accumulating snow is looking likely over parts of the Carolinas beginning Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

We'll watch a low pressure system that will track across the Carolinas tonight. A disturbance in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will race out of the north central US today to meet up with that low. That will cause the low to rapidly intensify tonight into tomorrow, and those are the ingredients for a significant winter storm for our area.

Snow totals will depend on just how much the low intensifies and the exact track of the low. Early forecasts this morning suggest much of the region will see between 2 to 4 inches of snow, but there will likely be a heavier band of snow that could be between 4 to 6 inches or even higher. The exact location of that heavier band will depend on the track of the low. For now, we will forecast that to set up somewhere near the I-95 corridor. However, if the low tracks further inland, that heavier snow band could be over the Triangle. If the low tracks closer to the coast or off the coast, that heavier snow band will be east of I-95.

Please keep in mind these are preliminary snow total forecasts, and likely will be adjusted through the day. If this low intensifies more than currently forecast, snow totals could be much higher. This forecast has some similirities to the record snow storm from January 2000 that dumped up to 20 inches of snow in the Triangle. That system only appeared in computer models just about 24 hours before the snow started. Early forecasts for storm were also between 2 to 4 inches but had to be adjusted much higher as it became evident that the low would become much stronger than expected. I don't point that out to say we will have another January 2000 snow, but just to say the forecast may change rapidly over the next 24 hours.

If you've followed winter weather forecasting in North Carolina, you know forecasting exact totals is very difficult. The only thing I am certain about in the forecast now is that the forecast will change some as we continue to follow the latest data. Count on News 14 Carolina for the most weather updates with Weather on the Ones. As time permits, we'll have updates on our blog, plus you can follow our new Twitter updates. Our Twitter links are available at the top right of our blog page.

Saturday Start Temps!

We knew it was going to be cold! Here are some morning start temps from around North Carolina on Saturday.

Raleigh: 11

Fayetteville: 12

Lumberton: 13

Wilmington: 16

Asheville: 4

Charlotte: 9

Greensboro: 10

Friday Morning Lows

Here's a look at the hourly low temperatures this morning from around the Triangle, Sandhills, and coastal regions of North Carolina:

• Oxford-Henderson: 12
• Southern Pines: 14
• Chapel Hill: 15
• Raleigh-Durham: 15
• Louisburg: 16
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 16
• Laurinburg: 17
• Erwin: 18
• Goldsboro: 18
• Smithfield: 18
• Elizabethtown: 19
• Fayetteville: 19
• Jacksonville: 19
• Kenansville: 19
• New Bern: 20
• Lumberton: 20
• Havelock (Cherry Point): 21
• Beafort: 22
• Wilmington: 22
• Whiteville: 23
• Southport

We look for an even colder temperatures for Friday night into Saturday morning. Lows should be back in the teens area wide around daybreak Saturday. We are forecasting 10 degrees around the Triangle with some single digit lows possible The last time a single digit low was reported at RDU was in January 2000. That was after a record snowfall dumped over 20 inches of snow across parts of the Triangle.

Preparing for cold temperatures and very dry air!

As we’re expecting some of the coldest weather in years to visit, albeit briefly, our North Carolina neighborhoods, its still important to keep some cold weather measures in mind for tonight and into the weekend.

This information is compiled from the National Weather Service and the University of New Hampshire.

1) If you have external pipes, wrap them to keep them from freezing. Be sure to disconnect hoses from outdoor faucets, as keeping them attached will promote freezing. Water lines in unheated recreational vehicles and out buildings should be winterized.

2) Be sure to have enough fuel on hand if you plan to use alternative heating sources. Also be sure to use the proper fuel if using a gas or kerosene heater, as many house fires result from fueling errors involving liquid or gas fueled heating equipment.

3) If possible, have your fireplace or wood stove inspected, especially if this is your first use of the season. Creosote buildup in chimneys resulting from years of use can promote chimney fires.

4) Use a sturdy screen or door in front of your fireplace when in use.

5) Burn only wood in fireplaces, never burn paper.

6) When using electric heaters, be aware not to overload electrical outlets. Also be careful of electrical cords that present hazardous walkways.

7) Keep heating sources at least 3 feet from curtains, bedding and other combustible objects. Failure to do so is one of the main causes of home fires involving space heaters.

7) Never leave children unattended in a room with a burning fireplace, running heater or lit candles.

8) Have you checked your smoke detector or changed the batteries lately?

9) If you have a fire extinguisher, make sure it is not past its effective date and that you know how to use it. Most fire departments will provide training on how to use them.

Your Vehicle…
1) Make sure your car has a good battery that is charged and charges well when the car is operating. Weak batteries are susceptible to cold temperatures and lose their charge easier. Also make sure you have that antifreeze in the radiator.. that is something that can easily be overlooked in our milder climate.

2) Keep some basic items in your car – Scraper, jumper cables, blankets, flashlight, and some munchies like granola bars.

Also:Be sure to bring pets in or provide shelter for them from these very cold temperatures. Some of the coldest temperatures will occur Friday and Saturday mornings when lows will fall into the lower teens. Wind chills could fall into the single digits as well, so make sure you’re well bundled-up when headed outdoors.

Regarding dry, cold air and dehydration, a study by the University of New Hampshire shows that while we still get dehydrated in cold weather, our bodies’ cues to hydrate are different.

When weather is hot, the body cools itself by directing fluid away from its core via a process called vasodialation. Your veins are opening up and taking heated fluids away from the body’s core and you sweat, thereby cooling you off. In colder temperatures, the veins constrict (vasoconstriction) to keep warm fluids near the body’s core and keep you warm. However, anytime you see your breath on a cold day, know that you are losing fluids, even if in small doses.

“People just don’t feel as thirsty when the weather is cold,” says Robert Kenefick, UNH associate professor of kinesiology. “When they don’t feel thirsty, they don’t drink as much, and this can cause dehydration.”

Yet the loss of fluid from our bodies, which triggers thirst in warmer weather, does not elicit the same response when the temperatures dip. It’s not simply because we don’t feel hot, Kenefick says. His 2005 study shows that cold actually alters thirst sensation.

Kenefick recommends that you follow the same advice in cold weather as in warm when it comes to keeping yourself hydrated. Drink plenty of water, especially when exercising or working outdoors. A good way to monitor proper hydration is to examine urine output – the color should be nearly clear.

Here Comes the Arctic Air...

The Arctic air we have been talking about for days is now arriving in the Carolinas. As of 9am this morning, the temperature had dropping into the upper teens and Boone and light snow was falling. Look for tempratures around the Triangle and Sanhills to reach our highs around midday and then drop into the afternoon. The wind will pick up as well during the afternoon making it feel colder with wind chills in the teens. The actual temperature should drop into the teens tonight with wind chills potentially in the single digits Friday morning.

We'll stay cold through the weekend with Saturday morning temperatures possibly just a little colder than Friday morning. Then, the interesting weather may come late Sunday... computer models are now showing a system working its way through the Carolinas late Sunday into early Monday morning. It may be able to squeeze out some light precipitation. Highs on Sunday should reach the 40s, but as the temperatures drop Sunday evening, light snow cannot be ruled out. If you've been following winter weather in North Carolina long, you know a lot can change when there is winter weather in the forecast several days out. As of now, this is only a slight chance and any precipitation should be light. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina and Weather on the Ones for any changes to that forecast over the coming days.

Stay warm too!

Take a Look...

Here's an infrared satellite image I grabbed from Wednesday evening at 6:45pm. You can see a line stretching from Maine, West Virginia, through Kentucky, Missouri, all the way past Montana. South of this line the satellite shows a darker image revealing the Deep South, Texas, west to California. However, north the view becomes hazy. Almost opaque. What's happening over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest that could be causing this differential in appearance?

The devil is in the details, or how much news you've been watching. Look at the key at the bottom of the image. This is a temperature scale. Infrared imagery isn't a true view of clouds like the visible satellite is during the day. IR relies on cloud temperatures to show Meteorologists where clouds are located. Typically clouds temperatures in the atmosphere can fall to -40 to -60 making them easily seen by the coldness of their temperature aloft. However, in this image we're seeing not only clouds, but air temperatures! Yes, the Arctic Blast leaving a trail of cold air from Canada to the United States is so cold that it's able to be detected on IR images! Using the scale we can see that temps of -10 to -25 is being felt from Chicago to Northern Minnesota.

Coldest Air in the Last Few Years?

During Weather on the Ones this morning, you have heard me mention that the Arctic blast for the end of the week is expected to bring some of the coldest weather we've had in the last few years. Highs Friday may not even make it out of the 20s in some spots and morning lows should drop to the teens Friday and Saturday morning. So when is the last time we've had temperatures this cold? Here's a look at some information passed along by the National Weather Service Office in Raleigh...

Most recent dates at RDU with highs below 32

• December 14, 2005: 31
• January 19, 2005: 30
• January 18, 2005: 30

Most recent dates at RDU with lows in the teens

• January 21, 2008: 15
• January 20, 2008: 18
• February 19, 2007: 19
• February 17, 2007: 19
• February 7, 2007: 15

Last dates at RDU where the low was in the single digits

• January 29, 2000: 7
• January 28, 2000: 1

A couple of notes about some of those past cold temperatures... The single digit lows in 2000 occurred following the record January 2000 snowstorm that dumped over 20 inches of snow on the Triangle. The most recent high of 30 at RDU on January 19, 2005 was set on the day that about a half of inch of snow paralyzed the Triangle. Snow that accumulated on roadways that day created gridlock around Raleigh trapping motorists on areas highways for hours. Some school kids even had to spend the night at school because of the road conditions that afternoon.

Fortunately, this week's cold blast looks to be a dry one. Yesterday, there were some hints in the models for a slight chance for precipitation on Sunday. However, Sunday now appears to stay dry.

Stay tuned for the latest weather updates with Weather on the Ones only on News 14 Carolina!

Cold for the End of the Week, But Not Record Cold

For a while now, we've been talking about the frigid temperatures that are on the way for the end of the week. It certainly will be much colder than normal. Average highs for this time of the year run int he upper 40s with lows in the upper 20s around the Triangle. We are expecting lows Friday and Saturday mornings to drop to the teens. Afternoon temperatures on Friday should only reach the 20s to near 30.

Now, all of that is certain quite cold, but it will not set any records. Here are how the record lows stand for the rest of the week...

• Wednesday (January 14): 12 in 1969
• Thursday (January 15): 9 in in 1994
• Friday (January 16): 3 in 1994
• Saturday (January 17): -1 in 1977
• Sunday (January 18): 3 in 1977

Cold Week Ahead

The week is starting with near normal temperatures for January, but by week's end we could have the coldest weather so far this winter. In fact, we may have some of the coldest weather we have seen around here in quite a while by Friday and Saturday. Check out what's on the way in this morning's video blog update posted below...

Friday Morning Update on the Chance for Colder Weather Next Week

If you've been following our forecasts or our blog this week, you know we have been discussing the potential for an Arctic blast across much of the United States next week. As of Friday morning, there is still a good bit of uncertainty on that Arctic blast and the timing of when it may arrive. Earlier in the week it appeared that the very cold temperatures would arrive here in the Carolinas for the middle of next week. Some of the latest weather guidance from late yesterday and early this morning now suggest that the bitterly cold air will arrive more toward the end of next week.



I discuss those changes and how it impacts our extended forecast in this morning's video blog posted below.

Arctic Air for Next Week?

The temperature in Fairbanks, Alaska this morning is around -45. Yep, that's 45 degrees below zero. Of course it's cold in Alaska, but that is very cold for even Fairbanks this time of the year. So, why do we even care how cold it is in Alaska this morning? That is the location for a frigid Arctic air mass that could come racing into the United States all the way to the Carolinas by the middle of next week. Now that air will modify some as moves our way, but there is still the potential for very cold temperatures here around the middle of next week. I have more on the forecast for an Arctic blast in this morning's video blog posted below.

Peak Wind Gusts from Wednesday

A look back at some of the peak wind gusts from around North Carolina on Wednesday from various reports passed along by the National Weather Service...

• Garner: 64mph
• Goldsboro (Seymour Johnson Air Force Base): 63mph
• Rocky Mount-Wilson: 62mph
• Raleigh-Durham Airport: 59mph
• Topsail Island: 56mph
• Wrightsville Beach: 56mph
• Pope Air Force Base: 55mph
• Fayetteville Airport: 53mph
• Laurinburg: 52mph
• Chapel Hill: 51mph
• Lumberton: 51mph
• Wilmington: 51mph
• Fort Bragg: 50mph
• Holly Springs: 50mph
• Greensboro: 49mph
• Burlington: 48mph
• Clinton: 47mph
• Whiteville: 46mph

Rain, Wind, and Rainbows?

Yesterday was quite a day... a little rain and a lot of wind. Peak wind gusts topped out at over 50mph in many locations including a gust to 59mph at the Raleigh-Durham Airport and 63mph at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in Goldsboro.

Calmer weather is expected today, although there is a slight chance for a sprinkle of rain. A few folks from Raleigh to the north may even see a snow flake or two, but those chances are very slim. Meteorologist Joshua McKinney pointed out in the previous blog post that a sure sign today's weather will be calmer was a rainbow spotted by many of our viewers around the Triangle. Here's a look at more of those viewer photos....

The above three photos were taken by News 14 Carolina viewer Kitty Ashby in Willow Springs.

Photo from Arladean Emerson in Cary.

Rainbow spotted in Morrisville from Timothy Moeller.

If you ever have weather pictures to share with the Weather on the Ones Forecast Team, e-mail them to weather@news14.com.

Calming Down...

Jim Penny, a loyal News 14 Carolina viewer, sent us this beautiful picture at the end of a windy day in North Carolina. Wind gusts were as high as 63 mph in Goldsboro and 62 mph in Rocky Mount! However, as the winds continue to diminish overnight we will be left with damage over many counties in the viewing area. Numerous trees and power lines were brought down by destructive winds on Wednesday. From this point on we'll certainly see better, but cooler days ahead this week.

Rain and Wind

A front moving through North Carolina today is bringing us another round of wet weather. Unlike yesterday though, we'll have to deal with windy conditions today. Wind gusts as high as 40 to 45mph will be possible in some spots. With an already saturated ground from yesterday's rain, the wind could easily bring down some trees resulting in spotty power outages. Already this morning, there have been some power outages reported around the Triad. You can keep track of outages in our area through the following websites --

• Power outage reports from Duke Energy
• Power outage map from Progress Energy

Wet Again!

Rainfall totals through 5pm on Tuesday were highest from the Triangle to the Triad. Greensboro measured .092", while RDU gained 0.89" to its monthly total. While Fayetteville and Lumberton had 0.57" and 0.13" respectively, the Sandhills should see higher totals Wednesday.

This evening we are monitoring strong to severe storm across the Deep South. Parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina are under a Tornado Watch until 11pm. A thunderstorm risk is possible in North Carolina from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, but severe storms appear to be limited as most of the dynamics losing steam late Tuesday night.

As the cold front passes, winds will shift to the Northwest and colder air is due to arrive as we make it to Thursday. NW winds will increase to 20-30 mph during the day on Thursday. By Friday lows drop back into the 20s while highs struggle to reach the 50s.

Soggy Tuesday

Wet weather will continue in the forecast through Wednesday. For more on our rain chanes plus a preview of what could be ahead next week, check out this morning's video blog posted below...

Wet Weather Through Midweek

Don't look for much sunshine through the first half of this week. In fact, much of the area could see up to a couple of inches of rain through Wednesday. We do not expect to see a lot of that rain today, but a few light showers are possible late this afternoon. Look for the rain chances to pick up later tonight into early Tuesday.

The first chance for showers begins this afternoon as a cold front slips into North Carolina. As more moisture builds along the front, the chance for rain will pick up tonight. Cooler air behind that front will also aid in wedging cold air into central North Carolina. That will make for a wide range of temperatures Tuesday across the state. The Triangle and Triad will be stuck in the 40s through the day with highs near 60 to the low 60s expected in the Sandhills. Locations along the southeast coast may even get close to 70.

The rain from Tuesday morning should move to the north of our area during the day bringing a break in the rain chances Tuesday afternoon. The warm front you see across the state on the above surface map will lift all across the area Tuesday night causing temperatures to rise overnight into Wednesday. Then the cold front will move through our area Wednesday bringing another chance for rain.

Most computer models suggest central North Carolina could see anywhere between 1 and 3 inches of rain over the next few days. The above precipitation forecast image from the National Weather Service agrees with that forecast of on average 2 inches of rain in central North Carolina.

Look for the rain to end by late Wednesday with dry weather for the end of the work week. Rain now looks to return to the forecast by Saturday.